state of play: 10/28/2019
STATE OF PLAY: Gowin: De-escalate disputes, appeal to urban voters; Dorn: A system of several 20% parties is possible; Zybertowicz: More scalpel, less hammer
-- 6TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATH OF Prime Minister Tadeusz Mazowiecki.
-- MUELLER ON NEW FACES IN THE GOVERNMENT, SASIN ON RETURNING TO THE MINISTER OF TREASURY MODEL - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/10/28
-- I WOULDN'T EXPECT A QUICK SIGNING OF A NEW COALITION AGREEMENT - JAROSŁAW GOWIN IN AN INTERVIEW WITH GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN DGP: “The only person authorized to present the composition of the government is Prime Minister Morawiecki. I do not intend to speak about the arrangements with Porozumienie (Agreement) or about the negotiations between PiS and Solidarna Polska (United Poland). But please do not expect revolutionary changes. It will be a government of continuation and acceleration. Discussions about personnel are heading towards a swift conclusion. Programmatic matters will take us much more time. Therefore, I would not expect a quick signing of a new coalition agreement”.
-- PERHAPS IN THE SENATE WE WILL WORK OUT A MODUS VIVENDI - GOWIN CONTINUES: “In 2005, a war at the top began in Poland, which quickly turned into a war at the bottom as well. As a society, we are definitely too deeply divided. Perhaps, therefore, the situation in the Senate is an opportunity to start working out some modus vivendi between the ruling camp and the opposition?”
-- THE MOST IMPORTANT RE-ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT - GOWIN CONTINUES IN DGP: “This is the opposition's plan: to deprive us of the senatorial majority, take away the presidency, and then grill us for so long that we ourselves will ask for a shortening of the term. Therefore, the most important goal of our camp at present is the re-election of Andrzej Duda. Our actions must be subordinated to this for the next six months.”
-- GOWIN BELIEVES THAT PAD'S TOUGHEST COMPETITOR WOULD BE KOSINIAK, BUT HE HAS THE SMALLEST CHANCE OF REACHING THE SECOND ROUND: “The problem with Kosiniak-Kamysz is that in my opinion – and here I agree with Donald Tusk – he would be the toughest competitor for President Duda, but at the same time, he has the smallest chance of all the opposition candidates to make it to the second round.”
-- DE-ESCALATE DISPUTES AND APPEAL TO VOTERS IN CITIES - GOWIN CONTINUES: “It is no secret that various concepts are being formulated within the ruling camp. There are those who believe that we should accelerate and point out that Andrzej Duda's victory can be ensured by combining the electorates of Zjednoczona Prawica (United Right) and Konfederacja (Confederation). My diagnosis is different – I believe that we should de-escalate political disputes and appeal more than in recent months to voters from larger and medium-sized cities.”
https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/611372,jaroslaw-gowin-donald-tusk-andrzej-duda-wybory-prezydenckie.html
-- SOMETHING IS SPARKING IN THE BACKGROUND OF PiS - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “Despite Jarosław Kaczyński's declarations that Mateusz Morawiecki will remain Prime Minister, disputes between PiS and its allies have not subsided. – Negotiations have moved to a lower level, to companies and institutions – says a PiS politician.”
-- KONDZIŃSKA DESCRIBES AN ANECDOTE FROM A PiS CLUB MEETING: “Our interlocutor also recounts another scene: Jarosław Kaczyński announces that Andrzej Duda will be the presidential candidate in the spring elections. He falls silent, turns towards Gowin and Ziobro, and says: – Unless you gentlemen have a different opinion, different candidates, perhaps one of you will run. – The room burst into laughter, Gowin smiled wryly, Ziobro – his face a mask – says a PiS MP.”
-- KACZYŃSKI DID NOT CONSIDER ANY OTHER PRIME MINISTER THAN MORAWIECKI: “Our interlocutors claim that Kaczyński invited Ziobro for a conversation last Tuesday to finalize the matter and announce at the club meeting that an agreement on the prime ministerial candidate had been reached. – The rebellion against Morawiecki was senseless because it was de facto a rebellion against Kaczyński, who did not even consider another candidate – says a politician from the ruling camp.”
-- DIGITALIZATION FOR ZIOBRO: “From unofficial information, it is known that Gowin will retain his Ministry of Science and Higher Education, and the current Minister of Entrepreneurship, Jadwiga Emilewicz, would head a new Ministry of Economy. Zbigniew Ziobro will remain Minister of Justice, and an additional Ministry of Digitization will be created for his nominee. Ministers of Finance and Sport are being sought.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25352690,nieudane-szarze-ziobry-i-walka-o-spolki-cos-iskrzy-na-zapleczu.html
-- THE END OF THE WORLD OF WARM WATER FROM THE TAP - LUDWIK DORN IN GW: “The October parliamentary elections were a harbinger of the end of an era in which two powers dominated the Polish political scene: Platforma (Civic Platform) and PiS.”
-- PO CANNOT BECOME FRAGMENTED, THE EMERGENCE OF THREE TWENTY-PERCENT PARTIES IS POSSIBLE - DORN CONTINUES: “There is only one condition for retaining this group of voters – PO cannot become internally fragmented and unstable, because a voter who expects protection from the anxieties that politics brings will not vote for a party that radiates internal unease. Therefore, it is highly probable that from today's opposition side, a political balance will emerge – the functioning of three parties with electoral strength ranging from a dozen or so to twenty-odd percent of the votes.”
-- DORN ON THE NEW ECONOMIC ELITE AFTER THE PRESIDENT'S RE-ELECTION: “The above reasoning refers to the sociology of politics, and this has often lost to politics in its pure form. The teething of the new political and party system will certainly be shorter and less painful if PiS loses the presidential elections and remains bogged down in normal politics for the remainder of the Sejm's term, i.e., in Jarosław Kaczyński's understanding, in 'impossibilism'. If, however, PiS wins the presidential elections, an attempt to revolutionize society by creating a 'new economic elite' through state tools will become probable, which will create new lines of division and we will have to wait longer for the end of the teething, and moreover, it will be very painful.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25352206,polska-po-wyborach-koniec-swiata-cieplej-wody-z-kranu.html
-- KORWIN-MIKKE SPEAKS TO JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ ABOUT ZIOBRO'S COMMUNISTS: “What kind of 'government' coalition, since PiS has a majority? And if PiS wanted to get rid of the communists under His Excellency Zbigniew Ziobro, they would form a coalition with PSL-Kukiz’15. As for the anti-LGBT bill, we will submit it – and we will see what PiS does.”
-- KORWIN ON 100 BILLS: “That depends on the circumstances. Certainly, LGBTQZ and 447 first – and then we have Mentzen's '100 bills' in updated order. Although it's more of a demonstration.”
-- KORWIN ON VOTER PRESSURE ON PIS REGARDING LGBT: “However, they might introduce an LGBTQZ ban, because the pressure from their voters will be great and obvious. We will mercilessly corner them. We will try. There are sensible people in PiS – but there is little chance they will agree to limit abortions.”
-- IS ABW RECRUITING POLITICIANS? - KORWIN CONTINUES IN RZ: “Lustration was not carried out. But now it hardly matters. More importantly: who works for ABW etc... I wonder if ABW regulations state that they are not allowed to recruit politicians?”
-- ACCORDING TO KORWIN, WOMEN VOTE FOR MEN “BECAUSE THEY ARE SMART”: “Because voters didn't vote for them. In general, voters don't like voting for women – this applies especially to women. Women are smart, so they vote for men.”
https://www.rp.pl/Konfederacja/310279960-Korwin-Mikke-Nie-bedziemy-opozycja-totalna-ale-merytoryczna.html
-- TOMASZ SAWCZUK ON THE END OF WIOSNA (SPRING): “An arrangement where each party develops its own identity, but all operate under the umbrella of one club and form a lasting coalition, could also make sense. However, Wiosna currently exists mainly on paper, and its politicians currently resemble a collection of individuals rather than an organized force. If, however, SLD absorbs Wiosna, it will be difficult to determine the value of such a solution. It could then be said that Biedroń has squandered his work in recent years.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/10/28/zjednoczona-lewica-koniec-wiosny/
-- TUSK WILL RETURN - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN TP: “The government's troubles are an opportunity for Tusk. Therefore, whether he returns as a presidential candidate or as the main strategist of the anti-PiS opposition – it ultimately doesn't matter. Because he will return. In any role, he will significantly shake up Platforma. His people are already organizing a rebellion against Grzegorz Schetyna.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/tusk-wraca-nawet-bez-tuska-160878
-- THE ELECTION RESULT DOES NOT BRING A GRAVITATIONAL EFFECT - ANDRZEJ ZYBERTOWICZ IN CONVERSATION WITH MARCIN FIJOŁEK IN SIECIACH: “Politics always involves levels where personnel are managed manually and levels where certain procedures operate. Systemic change involves creating new mechanisms for recruitment, development, and evaluation of personnel. It seems the time has come to, at least in some areas, adjust the political level of personnel selection differently. Unfortunately, one can fear that the level of electoral victory achieved by PiS, while providing full legitimacy to govern, does not bring a gravitational effect that would cause doubtful, apolitical people to want to engage in new projects, to fully believe that governing in Poland can be permanently professionalized.”
-- MORE SCALPEL, LESS HAMMER - ZYBERTOWICZ CONTINUES: “The conclusions I would draw from the judicial reform are somewhat different: we need more finesse, a scalpel, not a hammer. For example, the law vetoed by President Andrzej Duda was too one-dimensional. The camp of good change is capable of a more refined approach. The experience with the 'hating' judges shows that the recruitment principles for the judicial profession inherited from the Third Republic are flawed. It's a bit like the ZNP strike – the teachers had many arguments, but their spontaneous forms of strike communication online showed that there are many people with low intellectual standards among them. Yet they are shaping future generations of Poles. And here we return to the question: will the camp of good change act in such matters in a frenzy, or will it focus on reform, changes, and specifics?”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/470272-nasz-wywiad-zybertowicz-wiecej-skalpela-mniej-mlotka
-- LEAVING SCHETYNA WILL BRING NOTHING GOOD - ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI FROM KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Is Grzegorz Schetyna then solely to blame for the electoral defeat? Of course not. Does changing the leader guarantee that support for PO will start to grow? Not at all. One thing, however, is certain. A lack of change guarantees that things will not get better. In short, replacing the PO leader might have negative consequences, true. But it might also have positive ones. Meanwhile, leaving the current leadership will likely bring no good.”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/co-musi-zrobic-po-by-wygrac-z-pis-opinia/83kssc8
-- KAJA PUTO ON THE POLISH ESTATE AND FEUDALISM: “However, this surge of empathy does not solve the main problem. And that is the state's powerlessness in the face of the estate-feudal labor relations in Polish companies and the politicians' indifference to employee rights or their cowardice in the face of the xenophobia unleashed by PiS. Let's hope that the new, left-wing faces in the Sejm will show courage in this matter.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/kaja-puto/praca-polski-folwark-zabija-nie-tylko-ukraincow/
-- OPPOSITION VOTERS SPEAK OF DEFEAT - PIOTR PACEWICZ ANALYZES IPSOS POLL FOR OKO.PRESS: “All of this shows that – as in the case of the Senate – in all three electorates, the dominant feeling is that the goal of the elections was to remove PiS from power, and since this goal was not achieved, it should be considered a defeat. Only in the second step can this fundamental disappointment be mitigated by a better-than-expected result of one's own party (PSL) or exacerbated by a worse result (KO).”
https://oko.press/wyborcy-opozycji-zalamani-sejmem-i-uradowani-senatem-bo-liczylo-sie-zabranie-wladzy-kaczynskiemu/
-- RZ ON THE CONNECTIONS OF BANAS'S COLLABORATORS: “Marian Banaś, the current head of NIK (Supreme Audit Office), assured us that he was unaware of the criminal activities of Arkadiusz B., who was one of his closest collaborators during his work at the Ministry of Finance. Meanwhile, it was he, as deputy minister, who supervised the Internal Inspection Office, whose task is to identify, detect, and combat, among other things, corruption offenses, abuse of power, and dereliction of duty by employees and officials of the National Revenue Administration. And complaints against B. – as 'Rzeczpospolita' has established – have been arriving at the office for over 3 years.”
https://www.rp.pl/Rzad-PiS/310279971-Afera-w-Ministerstwie-Finansow-Szerokie-plecy-Arkadiusza-B.html
-- DGP ON THE CONTEXT OF THE HEAD OF ABW: “A close collaborator of the head of NIK faces charges of VAT fraud. He heads a company on whose supervisory board sat Piotr Pogonowski.”
https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/611361,marian-banas-skarbowka-vat-wyludzenia.html
-- 1ST ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATHS OF Kazimierz Czaplicki and Edward Dwurnik.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Tadeusz Iwiński, Piotr Semka, Jan Komasa, Mieto Strzelecki.
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