state of play: 10/23/2019

POLITICAL GAME STATE: Zaremba Warns Against Aggressive Tactics, Śpiewak Accuses Trzaskowski Over Brzeska Tenement Building: "The Network Still Rules"

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE COURT SIDEWALKED WITH MOSSAKOWSKI AND AGREED WITH TRZASKOWSKI - JAN ŚPIEWAK ON FB: “The court has once again sided with the convicted criminal Marek Mossakowski, who has a final court ruling against him. They agreed with Trzaskowski and annulled the Commission's decision. They completely ignored the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling from 2016 on reprivatization. Courts are once again siding with illegality against the public interest. We are dealing with a rebellion by administrative courts, which are violating Constitutional Tribunal rulings and arbitrarily interpreting Bierut's decree to the benefit of claim traders.” -- ŚPIEWAK ON THE RAW VIOLENCE OF THE COURTS AND THE CONTINUED RULE OF THE REPRIVATIZATION NETWORK IN WARSAW: “The court also previously ordered the return of the tenement building at Mokotowska 40 to Robelek and his partner, who is currently believed to be in custody. There was also clear corruption and a violation of elementary legal provisions there. This is how authoritarianism is born. The raw violence of the courts, devoid of any legal or moral basis. Dark clouds have gathered over Warsaw. The worst is the feeling of powerlessness. There is no reprivatization law, and the city is still ruled by a pro-reprivatization network. This is how democracies die. Enough impunity for the elites!” https://www.facebook.com/JanDawidSpiewak/photos/a.1528675940483966/2760429740641907/?type=3&theater -- THE ATTACK ON PMM'S POSITION AND JK WAS PERCEIVED AS BIDDING FOR POSITIONS - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “Incidentally, behind the facade of this debate, a power struggle is taking place regarding the very nature of the ruling camp. Publicist voices advocating for toughness and clarity are correlated with the efforts of Zbigniew Ziobro, his Solidarna Polska party, and possibly his potential allies in PiS, to give this camp a new form. Some perceived the demand for the replacement of Mateusz Morawiecki, first with Mariusz Błaszczak, and for a moment with Jarosław Kaczyński himself, as a bidding war for positions – in the government and state-owned companies. Such a motive is certainly important, but there is something more hidden behind it.” -- SOMEONE ADVISING A MORE OFFENSIVE APPROACH INCREASES THE RISK OF PAD LOSING IN A NEW POWER STRUGGLE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “Someone who today advises to be 'more offensive' increases, not decreases, the risk of losing in this new power struggle. I assume Jarosław Kaczyński is aware of this. But I also assume that the struggle for the post-election course has just begun. It will be influenced as much by the confrontational ambitions of the opposition, which treats the Senate as a foothold to stir up unrest, as by the temptations of many conservatives who believe in political war as the only method. A method of exercising power and nurturing their own ambitions – let's add, by appealing to the hard electorate, not all other Poles. It is easy to imagine a situation where PiS drags its president down with it. Burying its hopes for controlled governance for almost the entire term. But that's not Duda's only problem.” -- PIS SHOULD LET HIM PROVE HIMSELF, AS HE HAS BEEN LEFT ALONE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “His assets are his dignified style. But will that be enough when the campaign allows his presidency to be dissected into its constituent parts? Possibly with more skillful and stronger arguments than the one that, by telling a joke about cannibals at AGH Krakow, he committed racism. In theory, PiS should quickly come up with something for him now, let him prove himself. However, that would probably be too late and inauthentic. No one thought about it before. Just a year ago, absurd discussions were held about replacing him with Beata Szydło or Mateusz Morawiecki. Today, he has become the last hope. But a hope left empty-handed.” -- HE HAS A GIFT FOR CREATING REALITY WITH WORDS ALONE - ZAREMBA ON PAD: “I do not rule out that he will manage after all. In 2010, I noticed him when he delivered a moving speech at the post-Smolensk funeral of presidential minister Władysław Stasiak. He has a gift for creating reality with words alone. But it is possible that Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, supported by a whole team of Civic Platform specialists, will also find it in herself. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the leader of PSL, certainly has it. Robert Biedroń might also have it, although in his case it is burdened with a significant amount of lack of seriousness.” -- PERHAPS ZIOBRO IS NOT INTERESTED IN STRENGTHENING THE CURRENT RIGHT-WING BECAUSE HE IS THINKING ABOUT THE NEXT ROUND - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “Today, Andrzej Duda should start looking for genuine political advisors. And pray that his own camp does not trip him up. It is possible that Zbigniew Ziobro, who advises radicalizing the course, is not at all interested in saving the right-wing's position this term, as he is already thinking about the next round. Ziobro certainly will not consider Andrzej Duda's personal interests. They have had a falling out since 2011. However, if he is ready to risk everything, he is thinking short-sightedly. If PiS is paralyzed by an opposition president, it is possible that after 2023, there will be nothing left of the right-wing to pick up.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus-na-wybory/191029786-Andrzej-Duda-Ostatnia-nadzieja-PiS.html -- WPOLITYCE ON HOLOWNIA'S POTENTIAL CANDIDACY: “Is the idea of Hołownia's candidacy just a rumor and a sign of growing nervousness in opposition circles, or a real scenario? We will likely find out in the coming weeks. For now, we are noting these rumors.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/469682-opozycyjne-plotki-szymon-holownia-kandydatem-na-prezydenta -- SAWICKI ON THE QUICK NOMINATION OF KOSINIAK, FOGIEL ON WITEK REMAINING SEJM MARSHAL - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/10/23/ -- JACEK KARNOWSKI SUPPORTS BORUSEWICZ - IN CONVERSATION WITH JAN GĄDKA IN GAZETA.PL: “KO has the largest club in the Senate and should propose the Marshal, and with smaller clubs, an agreement must be reached on the allocation of deputy seats and committee chairs. That is natural. Personally, I think Bogdan Borusewicz is the best candidate. I am convinced that, as he has shown many times, he is one of the bravest politicians. He is to be a marshal, not a fighter. We cannot apply the same rules that PiS introduced.” -- WE STOPPED THE HUND'S MARCH - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Losing to such a team is not pleasant. But we did stop the march of the Huns destroying democracy, as PiS did not improve its standing, despite a huge campaign. At times, it was so stupid that it was counterproductive. It's clear that Jacek Kurski really thinks the simple folk will buy anything.” -- EITHER KIDAWA OR TRZASKOWSKI - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES AT GĄDKA'S: “The Marshal is now one of two people who can run for president on behalf of Civic Coalition. - And the other is... ...Rafał Trzaskowski.” -- ONE CANDIDATE IN THE FIRST ROUND WOULD DEMOBILIZE VOTERS: “We will see if the elections are decided in the first round and the opposition candidate wins, or if they go to the second round – then all hands on deck. In my opinion, talking about a single opposition candidate in the first round is a mistake and unnecessarily demobilizes part of the electorate. After all, if only Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz were nominated, the left-wing electorate would be demobilized. Or only Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska or Rafał Trzaskowski – then the people's electorate would be dispirited.” -- TUSK IS NOT INTERESTED - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “It would be good if he decided to run. However, since he is currently seeking the position of head of the European People's Party (EPP), he will not also be running for President of Poland shortly after. What will he say to the EPP people in half a year? 'I'm only with you for a moment because I want to run in Poland'? That is illogical. It seems to me that he is not interested in running.” -- NOT EVERYTHING CAN BE BLAMED ON SCHETYNA - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Certainly, a big plus for Grzegorz Schetyna was first building the European Coalition and then the Civic Coalition. But the lack of a clear message is not. What more can I tell you? Those six points should have been repeated like a mantra. However, I am far from blaming Grzegorz Schetyna for everything.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25332027,jacek-karnowski.html -- AN ATTEMPT TO CHANGE THE RESULT CONSOLIDATES THE OPPOSITION - BOGDAN BORUSEWICZ IN CONVERSATION WITH ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “This new situation and the attempt to change the election results will consolidate the opposition. We must act together because our results are being undermined. If PiS thinks this will cause controversy among the opposition or discussions about personalities, then in my opinion, they are mistaken. It will shorten discussions, because we see what PiS is aiming for.” -- BORUSEWICZ ON HIS CONCEPT FOR THE SENATE: “I have a concept for the functioning of the Senate, I know what needs to be done. But it is not my decision whether I want to or not. As discussions are ongoing, I will not make any declarations. Because it does not depend on me, but on the agreement with everyone.” https://www.rp.pl/Wywiady-i-rozmowy/191029753-Borusewicz-Podwazenie-rezultatu-wyborow-moze-miec-powazne-konsekwencje.html -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON THE PREGNANT NUN ON THE CROSSWALK AND PAD: “Andrzej Duda also has a minefield ahead of him – and although this president has better contact with voters, as confirmed by his recent meetings in smaller and larger districts, although he is younger and more determined, although he has more efficient advisors around him, who better understand political dynamics and complexity, I think one of the key questions at the threshold of presidential campaign preparations is different. Will a pregnant nun understand the president's jokes, like the one at AGH? And if not, will she not start looking for a pedestrian crossing? I would leave the presidential stand-up for Andrzej Duda for another occasion, preferably in June 2020. Unless they like playing with fire and dancing on a minefield in the Palace.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/469545-czy-zakonnica-w-ciazy-zrozumie-dowcipy-prezydenta -- WARZECHA ON THE HYSTERIA SURROUNDING PIOS'S MOTIONS FOR ANNULMENT BEING UNNECESSARY, BUT THE MATTER IS STRANGE: “I agree with Minister Jadwiga Emilewicz that we should not fall into hysteria regarding the election protests filed by PiS concerning the Senate elections. But I disagree that the matter is not strange. Paradoxically, acknowledging the protests could be as big a problem for PiS as the current situation in the Senate.” -- IF THE SUPREME COURT DECLARED THE MOTIONS WELL-FOUNDED, IT WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR PIS - WARZECHA CONTINUES IN WP: “Now let's imagine what would have happened if PiS's protests had been declared well-founded by the newly established Chamber of Extraordinary Review and Public Affairs of the Supreme Court, staffed by the new National Council of the Judiciary, elected by the parliamentary majority, the votes had been recounted, and then it was announced that PiS candidates had won in at least two constituencies. It cannot be ruled out with one hundred percent certainty that such a ruling would be justified and based on facts. However, no one would believe it, because over the last four years, PiS has managed to instrumentalize the judiciary to such an extent at its highest level, including the Supreme Court, and in many situations acted so brazenly and showed contempt for custom or procedure, that it has undermined all trust in institutions and mechanisms.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/lukasz-warzecha-o-protestach-pis-ws-senatu/6hhx7k5 -- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA ON THE VALIDITY OF VOTING AND THE EROSION OF TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS - WRITES IN RZ: “The example of the USA convinces us that even with the greatest political upheaval, institutional democracy helps maintain a modicum of common sense, and Great Britain shows that even the most stubborn prime minister must yield to the authority of the court. In Poland, however, this authority no longer exists. The last four years have turned it to dust. PiS does not believe in common courts, and the rest – in institutions established by the PiS judicial reform. And at this point, the ability to predict the course of events ends.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/191029757-Dabrowska-Zaufanie-skazane-na-smierc.html -- IZABELA KACPRZAK IN RZ ON KUCHCIŃSKI STILL AT THE GOVERNMENT VILLA: “It appears that Marek Kuchciński wants to stay in the government villa until the end of the Sejm's term – the new Sejm will begin its work on November 12. It is not out of the question that he will apply to rent the villa at Baciarellego on commercial terms. Maciej Łopiński, a former presidential minister and close associate of Jarosław Kaczyński, has such an agreement; although he has not held leading positions in the state for years, since 2015 he has been renting an apartment at ul. Baciarellego from the presidential pool based on a lease agreement with the Chancellery of the President's Service Center. According to reports by the wp.pl portal, he pays PLN 2.9 thousand plus operating costs for the 73-meter apartment.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/191029750-Marek-Kuchcinski-nadal-w-rzadowej-willi.html -- THE RETURN OF WALDY DZIKOWSKI - WIELKOPOLSKA GW: “A rebellion is growing within the Civic Platform against Grzegorz Schetyna. The position of the head of Wielkopolska PO and 'Schetyna loyalist' Rafał Grupiński is threatened. His age-old rival, Waldy Dzikowski, may return to play – he is a candidate for the head of the PO-KO parliamentary club.” https://poznan.wyborcza.pl/poznan/7,36001,25334530,wielki-powrot-waldego-dzikowskiego.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Joanna Staręga-Piasek, Mikołaj Dowgielewicz, Marcin Meller, Magdalena Jethon, Jerzy Kozdroń.

Łukasz Mężyk