-- SIEMONIAK ON THE SENATE MARSHAL NEEDING TO BE DYNAMIC - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/10/15/ -- PIS HAS HIT A CEILING - PAWEŁ BRAVO AND JAROSŁAW FLIS IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “In the elections, PiS utilized its mobilization potential and benefited from higher turnout, but it still hit a ceiling. (...) Compared to the 2015 presidential elections, PiS approached Andrzej Duda's result (8.6 million at the time), which means it utilized its mobilization potential (as not all 'presidential' voters usually turn out for parliamentary elections) and benefited from higher turnout, but it still hit a ceiling. Admittedly, it's a high ceiling, but it's evident that exceeding just under half of all voters is beyond its reach. More importantly – it hit this ceiling in conditions of a favorable economic climate, numerous gifts for the electorate, heavy-handed support from public media, and a disunited opposition. In the power struggle for the next four years, the most important factor is who will form a new government in a few days, but there's no question of a significant strengthening of their mandate.” -- PIS WILL REAP THE DESERVED BITTER FRUITS OF ITS OWN CONFLICT-STOKING POLICIES - CONTINUED BY THE AUTHORS OF TP: “Confederates will not only evoke disgust from the liberal-leaning segment of public opinion but will also cause considerable trouble for PiS. It will reap the deserved bitter fruits of its own conflict-stoking policies. Once the emotions subside – both voters and politicians will have something to ponder.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/rozczarowanie-rzadzacych-kleska-opozycji-160698 -- THEY WANTED TO CRUSH THE OPPOSITION BUT BARELY HELD ON TO A MAJORITY - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN TP: “PiS won the parliamentary elections and will soon begin its second term of sole governance. However, there is no euphoria in the party. Kaczyński wanted to crush the opposition, but he barely held onto a majority.” -- STANKIEWICZ SUGGESTS SASIN WILL BECOME MINISTER OF TREASURY AND GLIŃSKI WILL BE SENT ABROAD AS A DIPLOMAT: “Continuity is expected in the security ministries: Ziobro will remain Minister of Justice, Mariusz Błaszczak will continue in the Ministry of National Defence, and Mariusz Kamiński in the Ministry of Interior and Administration. The ministers of education, agriculture, and labor will likely remain unchanged. Current Deputy Prime Minister Jacek Sasin is expected to head the resurrected Ministry of Treasury. Deputy Prime Minister Piotr Gliński might be sent to a diplomatic post. The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will definitely change.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/zadyszka-zwyciezcy-160695 -- STANKIEWICZ ON BUYING BACK PRIVATE MEDIA BY COMPANIES: “However, given Kaczyński's determination regarding the media, further administrative attempts by PiS to interfere in this area should be expected, for instance, through the repurchase of private media by state-owned companies.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wyniki-wyborow-2019-co-zrobi-pis-analiza-andrzeja-stankiewicza/yb7qcj0 -- PIS IS LOSING ITS GOVERNING COMFORT - RZ headline. -- PIS LOSES ITS MONOPOLY - GW headline. -- KRUPKA ACHIEVES A SENSATIONAL RESULT TO ENTER THE SEJM - ECHO DNIA - THE MAIN NEWSPAPER OF THE ŚWIĘTOKRZYSKIE REGION ON THE FRONT PAGE: https://www.egazety.pl/polska-press/e-wydanie-echo-dnia.html -- NO EUPHORIA IN THE RULING CAMP - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “The day after the elections, with each subsequent announcement from the National Electoral Commission, the faces of PiS politicians grew longer. This is because the final results are worse than expected. – We were counting on the ceiling from which we would break out in these elections to be 45% support, and we didn't even reach that threshold – explains a PiS politician.” -- KONDZIŃSKA QUOTES A PIS POLITICIAN WHO SPEAKS OF KACZYŃSKI'S SATISFACTION WITH THE PRIME MINISTER: “The Prime Minister achieved a result 7% better than Szydło did four years ago. Besides, the party leader is still satisfied with him, as he keeps saying that Morawiecki has wires instead of veins.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25308751,powyborcze-porachunki-w-obozie-wladzy-to-zwyciestwo-przyprawia.html -- NOW THE BATTLE FOR EVERYTHING WILL BEGIN - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The opposition can go to the voters with the message that it has managed to achieve a certain victory over Law and Justice. In this situation, the presidential elections will turn into a battle for everything. This means that for PiS, the most important goal in the near future will be to secure Andrzej Duda's re-election. The rhythm of political life until May will therefore be dictated by a logic that will tie the hands of the ruling party. The fight for the Presidential Palace follows the logic of majority elections, in which one must attract over half of all voters, not just the hard electorate.” -- SHARPENED LANGUAGE AND CLUMSY PROPAGANDA DETERRED VOTERS - CONTINUED BY SZUŁDRZYŃSKI: “The final result of the parliamentary election – worse than PiS expected – indicates that the sharpening of language in the final days of the campaign and TVP's clumsy propaganda may have deterred some moderate voters. The very same voters without whom PiS cannot achieve Duda's re-election. Therefore, another political spectacle titled 'the United Right's march towards the center' can be expected.” -- SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON A LOOPHOLE IN THE CURRENT POWER SYSTEM: “Meanwhile, the official election results not only proved to be a cold shower for the ruling party's politicians but also created a certain loophole in the current power system.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/310149901-Szuldrzynski-Teraz-czeka-nas-bitwa-o-wszystko.html -- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI COMPARES THE SITUATION TO THE LAST GERMAN OFFENSIVE AT KURSK: “It brings to mind the Battle of Kursk in July 1943, the last attempt by the Third Reich on that scale to regain strategic initiative on the Eastern Front. Enormous forces were amassed; one of the largest tank battles in history took place near Prokhorovka. Losses on both sides were immense. Yet, the Germans suffered a defeat – they did not regain the initiative, they did not achieve a breakthrough. From then on, they only retreated, despite flexing their muscles from time to time. I emphasize: this comparison relates solely to the military situation, not to comparing either side to the criminal tyrants who fought then.” -- DESPITE HUGE EXPENDITURES, THEY DID NOT BREAK THROUGH - CONTINUED BY KARNOWSKI: “Looking soberly, the attacking camp of the Third Polish Republic is in the same situation as the Germans were then. They rejoice in the smoke of battle, delight in the losses inflicted on the enemy and in micro-successes. But in a strategic sense, after four years of totality, enormous preparations, vast sums, Soros's and Kramka's activities, the intensification of most media, and throwing millions-funded beetroot juices into the fray, they are where they were. They did not break through. They did not advance.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/468420-strategicznie-byla-to-powtorka-z-bitwy-na-luku-kurskim -- THE BATTLE FOR THE PRESIDENCY WILL NOT BE A WALK IN THE PARK - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Now, the presidential elections are on the horizon. The outcome of the battle for the Sejm indicates that while Andrzej Duda is the favorite, it will not be a walk in the park. In my opinion, it will be similar to 2010 or 2015: there will be a second round, and a few points, or maybe even one, will decide. Simply put, from a structural point of view, the resources of both sides are currently balanced. The elections of October 13 did not lead to a tipping of the scales, as many hoped. The war continues.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/468415-sadzac-po-13-x-bitwa-o-prezydenture-to-nie-bedzie-spacerek -- THE OPPOSITION CAN WIN AGAINST DUDAS - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “PiS's electoral victory is bittersweet. On the one hand, Jarosław Kaczyński's party has regained sole power; on the other, it has a slim majority, has lost the Senate, and there is a risk it could also lose the presidency. The main opposition parties will be able to form an alliance to oust Andrzej Duda from the Presidential Palace, which would be the beginning of the end of Kaczyński's party's rule.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/310149908-Nizinkiewicz-PiS--kolos-na-glinianych-nogach.html -- PIS GOVERNANCE IS NOT AN EPISODE - KAROLINA WIGURA IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Conversely, the opponents of the current government are disappointed because PiS, a grouping that for years was said to have won only due to electoral arithmetic or that only 18 percent of Poles voted for it in 2015, has confirmed its majority today. If a government is formed, PiS will no longer be an episode for the Third Polish Republic. Regardless of whether we like it or not – the period of Law and Justice's rule cannot be described in terms of an 'accident at work'.” -- PERHAPS THE OPPOSITION WILL FINALLY GET TO WORK - CONTINUED BY WIGURA: “One must hope that in that case, PiS's opponents will finally start preparing and offering long-term strategies. That they will begin to deeply consider what kind of Poland they can propose to voters and how to talk about it. Instead of resorting to hasty typifications of miracle leaders like Mateusz Kijowski, neutralizing opposing voices, as was done with the so-called 'symmetrists,' and instead of conjuring reality with the argument that PiS did not win fairly.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/10/14/pis-wybory-komentarz-wigura/ -- DARK CLOUDS OVER THE PO LEADER - DGP headline. -- IWONA SZPALA IN GW ON ACCOUNTING WITHIN PO: “One of our interlocutors admits that there are already ideas for 'uncontrolled accounting' within PO, but for now – as he says – emotions are playing a role.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25308635,platforma-sie-rozlicza-po-wyborach-co-ze-schetyna.html -- THE KEY TO SUCCESS IS NOT IN INTEGRATION - ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “One might think that such a result for KO would definitively convince the party leadership that the key to victory lies not in integrating various parties. For a very simple reason – mixing tea doesn't make it sweeter. Therefore, instead of moving individual political groupings from one bag to another and forcibly combining disparate entities, it is worth thinking about the program, and above all, about its credible communication. This is where the key to victory lies.” -- KIDAWA RECEIVED 70% OF VOTES FOR THE LIST, SCHETYNA 30% - CONTINUED BY PAWŁOWSKI: “The PO leader received just under a third of all votes cast for the Coalition's list in his district. For comparison, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, who received over 408,000 votes, received over 70 percent of the votes cast in Warsaw for the KO list.” -- SCHETYNA SIMPLY HAS NO IDEAS - CONTINUED BY PAWŁOWSKI: “Today, it is clear that Civic Platform needs a new leader, not only because Schetyna lost the elections and did not improve the party's result. A far more disturbing fact for party sympathizers should be that Schetyna has no idea how to breathe new life into the party, how to convince voters that PO has changed under his leadership, and how to regain the electorate's trust. There is no indication that this will change in the near future.” -- POSTPONING WILL HARM PLATFORM - PAWŁOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: “In this situation, the best solution would be an orderly and as swift as possible change of leadership, preceded by a short but substantive campaign focused on ideas for the future that go beyond slogans of further unification. Postponing renewal until February will only harm Civic Platform.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/10/15/pawlowski-wybory-analiza-grzegorz-schetyna/ -- TOMASZ SIEMONIAK AGAINST BLAMING SCHETYNA: “It is too early to talk about that. This is a time when we should fully support Grzegorz Schetyna as chairman. Those who want to run should express their aspirations after some time, but anyone who questions leadership or attacks Grzegorz Schetyna today is acting to the detriment of the opposition and Civic Coalition. This is not the time for reckoning and internal tensions. That time will come, and everyone in a democratic party like PO can come forward and compete for the chairman's seat. We are not a personality cult party.” https://wiadomo.co/wybory-2019-tomasz-siemoniak-to-nie-jest-czas-na-rozliczenia-i-wewnetrzne-napiecia/ -- THE LEFT HAS THE BEST LINEUP FROM THE NEW GENERATION: “With MPs – Gdula and Zawisza, Czarzasty and Zandberg, Dziemianowicz-Bąk and Hanna Gill-Piątek, Konieczny and Scheuring-Wielgus – the Left has the best lineup of the young and middle generation in the Sejm in a decade and a half, perhaps even in the entire history of the Third Polish Republic.” -- SUTOWSKI ON FOCUSING ON SOCIAL SERVICES INSTEAD OF HANDOUTS: “one of the leitmotifs of the left-wing campaign, namely high-quality public services, needs to be rewritten. It didn't work out well as 'new, better socialism' because the rhetoric is still alien to many factions of the electorate: for some, it's a continuation of handouts; for others – it's socialism of a lower sort, huge and uncertain expenses on bureaucrats, freeloaders, some institutions and procedures, instead of direct money transfers to accounts, with which everyone knows best what they can do. The deepening crisis in health and education may, unfortunately, contribute to the intensification of these sentiments – on the principle of: why add to something that isn't working anyway? To attract more than just public sector workers with this topic, the Left should present – first and foremost – healthcare, education, and public transport as human rights issues, but also as conditions for the survival of civilization and economic development in Poland.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/sutowski-przyszlosc-lewicy-czyli-jak-wyjsc-poza-nascie-procent-sutowski/ -- EDWIN BENDYK ON THE EROSION OF THE RULING CAMP AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LEFT: “The inevitable erosion of the ruling camp is an excellent time for the Left, which has returned to the Sejm. This is its historic moment because it can finally offer a narrative perpendicular to the plane of the current PO-PiS polarization, in which two dominant narratives clashed: the success of the Third Polish Republic and post-communist betrayal. Neither proposed the solutions that Poland needs to face the future. Young people who took to the streets in large numbers under the banner of the Youth Climate Strike excellently recalled these challenges.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/bendyk-czas-dla-lewicy/ -- PIOTR PACEWICZ WRITES INTERESTINGLY ABOUT HOW IPSOS DEALT WITH RESPONDENTS' REFUSALS IN THE EXIT POLL - writes in Oko: “In the 2019 European elections, the strikingly high – 13% – refusal rate, mainly from PiS voters, led to an underestimation of PiS's result. The support for PiS announced at 9 PM (42.4%) was as much as 3 percentage points lower than the actual result (45.38%). 'It turned out that PiS voters are hiding from our interviewers the fact that they voted this way,' commented Paweł Predko on OKO.press at the time. IPSOS drew conclusions. The structure of refusals and the mobilization of electorates were analyzed in detail, and the researchers learned to correct the results based on that mistake. Although the refusal rate was again similarly high, reaching 13%. Let's clarify that refusal means that a person leaving the polling station provides their details – age, education, etc. – but does not disclose how they voted or refuses any cooperation with the interviewer and is described 'by eye' as a man or woman in a certain age group. It is highly probable that PiS voters were the ones refusing this time as well. As OKO.press learns, the socio-economic characteristics of the refusals indicated this. The profile of age, place of residence, and education matches the electorate of this party.” https://oko.press/ipsos-trafil-w-exit-poll-odmawiali-nam-glownie-wyborcy-pis-ale-nauczylismy-sie-korygowac-ten-unik/ -- RAFAŁ GAWLIKOWSKI ON A NEW CHRISTIAN DEMOCRACY FOR URBAN DWELLERS: “What does this actually mean? Firstly, the Polish People's Party (PSL) has reached out to completely new voter groups – most likely the conservative wing of Civic Platform and more centrist PiS voters. In addition, it managed to mobilize undecided voters. Secondly, the PSL failed to curb the outflow of its rural electorate to the right. The conclusion is self-evident: these elections have changed the PSL through the votes of the voters themselves. There is no turning back for the agrarian party. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz must create a new Christian democracy for urban dwellers.” -- WILL THE YOUNG GENERATION OF THE RIGHT FIGHT FOR CONSERVATIVE URBAN DWELLERS? - CONTINUED BY GAWLIKOWSKI: “However, Małgorzata Wassermann (140,000 votes) and Mariusz Błaszczak (133,000 votes) strengthened their positions within PiS. Young politicians also achieved very good results – Kacper Płażyński (89,000), Marcin Horała (61,000), Jadwiga Emilewicz (44,000), Łukasz Schreiber (30,000), Radosław Fogiel (27,000), Piotr Muller (26,000). If the election winners want to compete for a more conservative urban bourgeoisie, the young generation of the United Right camp should be more prominently featured by the party.” -- THESE WILL BE TOUGHER 4 YEARS - CONTINUED BY GAWLIKOWSKI: “Law and Justice will seriously have to face the opposition. Kaczyński's team has managed to effectively neutralize Kukiz in recent years. Mainly by gradually dismantling his parliamentary club and drawing individual MPs into PiS. It has long been known that Jarosław Kaczyński operates on the principle: 'to the right of us, only a wall.' This time, however, it will be different. Konfederacja is a real threat to his hegemony on the right. And a media hunt may not be enough, as attempts to discredit this grouping through Public Television during the campaign proved counterproductive. In addition, there is the PSL, which can bite PiS from a more centrist perspective. All this means that the next 4 years will be exceptionally difficult for the United Right.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/10/14/piec-najwazniejszych-trendow-wyborczych/ -- SCHETYNA KNOWS WHAT DECISION HE SHOULD MAKE - BOGDAN ZDROJEWSKI: “Civic Coalition repeatedly emphasized issues related to the rule of law. Unfortunately, this message is important for a narrow electorate, and elections are a celebration for a broad electorate. PO is now facing a rebranding, as a facelift won't be enough. However, there is no time. I am also convinced that Grzegorz Schetyna himself, as an extremely experienced politician, knows what personal decision he should make today.” -- ZDROJEWSKI ON MINIMIZING THE ELEMENT OF BETRAYAL IN THE SENATE: “We must count all our Senate mandates, the number of people who got elected, and analyze whether there won't be an element of betrayal. The ruling party might bribe an opposition senator, which PiS has done before. The Senate can stop PiS.” -- ZDROJEWSKI ON SEEKING OPPOSITION AGREEMENT AROUND A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: “Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska is a good candidate for such talks, but she cannot be announced now, as it would spoil the entire course of potential discussions, natural spontaneous support, and the necessary energy to support this candidacy for almost a year. We need to charge the battery, not drain it with a single spark. It's not the time for fireworks. Opposition leaders must not only respect each other but also the diverse opposition electorates.” https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-parlamentarne-2019/310149921-Bogdan-Zdrojewski-PO--malo-czasu-na-reaktywacje.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Olgierd Geblewicz, Marzena Wróbel.