-- KIERWIŃSKI AND TOMCZYK DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM NEUMANN'S WORDS ABOUT A GOVERNMENT WITH KONFEDERACJA, KOSINIAK ON LIFTING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/10/10/ -- THE CIVIC COALITION'S SENATE IS SLIPPING AWAY - Radosław Korzycki in DGP: "In at least a dozen districts, the fratricidal struggle of opposition candidates increases PiS's chances. (...) But even more interesting duels are taking place elsewhere. District no. 4, covering the świdnicki and wałbrzyski poviats and the city of Wałbrzych, was represented for two terms by Wiesław Kilian from PO, who died in March. Four years ago, he won by less than 3 percentage points over the PiS candidate. Today, Kamil Zieliński, the Lower Silesian voivode until August, is running for the ruling party, and Agnieszka Kołacz-Leszczyńska, a current PO MP, is running for the Civic Coalition. Both have equal chances, but votes could be taken from the opposition candidate by a third contender, Mirosław Lubiński. 'I am a doctor, an independent person, not affiliated with any political party. I do not have party structures, subsidies, or access to public media, which is why I am asking for your help in my election campaign,' he wrote on his FB profile." https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/609870,koalicja-obywatelska-senat-wybory.html -- PLATFORMA IS DANGEROUS FOR POLAND - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: "One could multiply these points, one could also point to ideological issues, a dangerous plan to re-educate Poles. But I am consciously setting that aside – I am showing the most important dangerous elements related to the Polish state. Unfortunately, everything leads to a sad conclusion: **Platforma is dangerous for Poland. And because it is a key element of the opposition, the same applies to the entire bloc.**" https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/467599-trzeba-to-widziec-platforma-jest-niebezpieczna-dla-polski -- PROF. PARUCH TELLS THE NET THAT UNDECIDED VOTERS WILL DECIDE THE SCALE OF PI'S VICTORY: "Research shows that 90% of voters who go to the polls already know who they want to vote for. So the question is not how people will behave at the ballot box, but whether they will go to the polls to vote. The question is whether they will express their will. There are 10-12% of voters left to convince. This group will determine the scale of PiS's victory. Importantly, they are so-called last-minute voters. They decide just before voting, in the last days and hours. But above all, they decide whether to go to the polls to defend their threatened interests, and also to express their emotions. This second motivation is decisive." -- PARUCH ESTIMATES TURNOUT AT 58 TO 62%: "I assume that the turnout will be between 58 and 62% of eligible voters, which will determine the fate of Konfederacja for sure, but probably also PSL. These two groupings lose a lot from an increase in turnout. On the other hand, PiS has the potential to exceed social support at the level of 45%, and even reach 48%. This is within the party's reach. Nothing indicates that PO can exceed 30%. SLD should exceed 10%, a maximum of 12%. It is unlikely that Konfederacja will exceed 5%. The biggest question mark is PSL. The higher the turnout, the less likely it is to cross the threshold. PSL voters are exceptionally unmobilized compared to voters of other committees. The alliance with Kukiz '15 did not bring many new voters. But these forecasts have one drawback – their 'execution' depends on differences in mobilization [...]. Today, the mobilization of PiS and PO voters is almost identical, the question is whether there will be a breakthrough and for whom it will be beneficial." https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/467619-paruch-w-sieci-ta-grupa-przesadzi-o-skali-zwyciestwa -- PROF. CHWEDORUK ON THE STRUGGLE BETWEEN SLD AND PO: "We have an unprecedented situation – only five nationwide committees. The result of the two weakest – PSL and Konfederacja – may have some significance, although I think that even the appearance of one or both of them is unlikely to deprive PiS of a majority. At this stage, everyone is probably more concerned about turnout and its proper arrangement in the electoral groups most important for given committees, rather than counting on any fundamental transfers. Today we saw another round of the SLD-Platform struggle, but paradoxically, a difference of 2-3% more or less for the Civic Coalition in the scale of PiS's lead is not as important as it would be in the case of united opposition parties. Then the gap to PiS would be completely different than at present. Everyone at this moment is rather trying to avoid strategic mistakes that could attract the attention of a significant part of public opinion, rather than trying to revolutionarily change reality." -- MANY SOCIAL GROUPS HAVE BEEN PUSHED TOWARDS PIŚ - CHWEDORUK CONTINUES: "I think it was a very long and complex, multi-faceted process, which in its final phase began with the increase in the retirement age by PO. That was the moment when many social groups that had not previously oriented themselves to the right were pushed towards Law and Justice. PiS consistently stuck to the promise of lowering the retirement age and fulfilled it. In addition, there were several other factors. Law and Justice, thanks to socio-economic issues and moderation on worldview matters, began to drift towards the center. And the center in Poland is not liberal voters from large cities – it is the pole of Polish politics. The centrist voter is rather a voter functioning somewhere in the space between PiS and the former, stronger PSL, i.e., voters from smaller towns and villages, and voters from medium-sized cities. PiS became a bit less distinctly right-wing, thus opening itself up to adapting further social groups." -- CHWEDORUK ON PI'S PRAGMATIC LINE: "Law and Justice, like the right wing in general, has always been burdened by the problem that an attempt at a rapid traditionalist change in social life would meet with strong resistance extending beyond the liberal camp itself, for example, mobilizing a significant part of the youth. PiS has adopted a pragmatic line here, and by adhering to this pragmatism, it has witnessed one of the strategic mistakes of the entire opposition in the campaign before the European Parliament elections, which was the issue of LGBT and especially the adoption of children by homosexual couples. At that time, Law and Justice, from a party that had to fear being accused of resurrecting the National Democracy, became a moderate defender of existing norms in social life. From a party of change, it became a party that defends concepts and categories that most Poles operate with, and that was also a fundamental change. Consequently, the current election campaign of Law and Justice is focused on maintaining these two pillars of success – moderation in worldview matters and a vision of a welfare state in socio-economic matters. PiS has already occupied almost the entire political center, hence its high poll ratings. Of course, factors on the opposition's side are also overlaid on this – the civil war within Platform or the traditional fratricidal struggle between PO and SLD for similar voter segments." https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/467521-prof-chwedoruk-pis-zajelo-juz-niemal-cale-centrum -- INSTEAD OF NEW TRANSFERS, POLES WANT IMPROVED QUALITY OF HEALTHCARE AND EDUCATION - KANTAR FOR GW AND TOK. -- MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI ON CHANGING LIFESTYLE - TELLS JACEK GĄDKA IN GAZETA: "It's a strong exaggeration. Indeed, my favorite alcohol was beer, which, however, in the case of diabetes, is the first thing one has to give up. Today I am an abstainer and a vegetarian. My friends were convinced I would have much bigger problems with that. In addition, there is daily sport. I start my day with an hour on a stationary bike. During the day, I am still able to – and during the campaign – spare an hour for swimming." -- KOSINIAK MOVED KUKIZ FROM PIŚ TO ANTI-PIŚ - KAMIŃSKI CONTINUES: "Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz made the decision to run independently not under Pawlak's influence, but he thought – and I value him highly for this – that the stakes of these elections are so high that by personally risking everything, he could contribute to taking away PiS's majority in the Sejm. He then reached an agreement with Paweł Kukiz, which was also extremely difficult. This is a great merit of Kosiniak-Kamysz: he moved Kukiz from the PiS camp to the anti-PiS side. Today, any rational, thinking person knows: the fate of whether PiS will have a majority in the Sejm depends on the result of the PSL list with Paweł Kukiz." -- KAMIŃSKI ON SUPPORT FROM KWAŚNIEWSKI AND BALCEROWICZ: "Yes. I am very proud of that. I consider it one of the greatest successes of my political evolution. After all, I never voted for Kwaśniewski, and now the former president supports me. An authority like Professor Leszek Balcerowicz also supported me." -- TUSK WOULD HAVE TO TAKE LEADERSHIP OF THE OPPOSITION: "Tusk would add a lot to the opposition if he took leadership over it. If he were not just a banner, but a leader who holds that banner." -- KURSKI IS MORE IMPORTANT FOR PIS THAN 500+ - KAMIŃSKI CONTINUES: "From PiS's perspective, Jacek Kurski is even better than 500+. But for Polish democracy and the quality of public debate, he is one of the greatest harm-doers." http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25287281,michal-kaminski-z-punktu-widzenia-pis-jacek-kurski-jest-nawet.html -- ACCURATE DIAGNOSIS BUT UNINTELLIGIBLE AND UNINTERESTING PROPOSALS FOR THE MEDIA - PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI ON THE CIVIC COALITION'S PROGRAM: "In many points, the Civic Coalition provides an accurate diagnosis and identifies problems that most groups are still silent about. The program includes a whole series of postulates moving in a similar direction to the actions and promises of the ruling party, but presented in a way that is incomprehensible to the average voter and uninteresting to the media. It also recalled a series of anti-PiS clichés, presented a few bold ideas for which the 'dot was not placed on the i', and a wide spectrum of promises directed at seniors. This is a clear announcement of the future of Polish politics. With the aging of society, the fight for power will increasingly revolve around mobilizing the oldest voters." https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/10/09/pigulka-programowa-koalicja-obywatelska-partia-kobiet-i-emerytow/ -- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON RESTORING DIGNITY - writes in RZ: "However, none of these descriptions are satisfactory. Is a fair assessment, abstracting from political sympathies, possible? It is not as wonderful as some want, nor as catastrophic as others want. PiS uses the slogan 'good times for Poland' and indeed for some Poles, these were good times. Billions in social transfers improved the living situation of broad sections of society. It is also evident in today's polls that PiS can count on significantly higher support than in 2015. The opposition, as well as some of its supporters, claim that PiS bought support with cash. However, research indicates that beneficiaries of government programs who received the 13th pension, the 300 PLN school starter pack, or 500+ believe they received not money from the government, but dignity. And it is this dignity that makes many social groups believe that thanks to PiS, not only has their material situation improved, but they no longer feel like second-class citizens." -- THE OPPOSITION WASTED TIME - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: "But any assessment of the last four years would be incomplete without an evaluation of the opposition. It seems it could not use this time effectively. It adopted a wrong strategy, believing that criticizing PiS would be enough to rebuild trust and social support. The only problem is that the opposition missed the moment when PiS changed the rules through social policy. If polls today show that this party can count on almost half the votes, it means that this group includes not only blind PiS loyalists. These are people who support this party despite its mistakes, countless scandals, and affairs. By pointing out PiS's errors, the opposition is not reducing its support, because Jarosław Kaczyński's grouping offers a vision of the state that is attractive to many voters, even if the party itself is not necessarily so. The opposition's duty is to point out the rulers' mistakes, but there was a lack of an alternative vision. Such as Donald Tusk presented in 2007, when he defeated PiS by playing on European aspirations, or such as the one with which he won in 2011. Today, the opposition lacks such a tempting vision, and sheer dislike of PiS may prove to be too weak fuel to defeat the right wing in Sunday's elections." https://www.rp.pl/Rzad-PiS/310099911-Cztery-lata-rzadow-PiS-Polska-na-plus-Polska-na-minus.html -- TOMASZ PIETRYGA ON THE FAILURE OF THE JUDICIAL REFORM - writes in RZ: "Never before has any grouping in the Third Republic put so much energy into attempting to reform the judiciary. It has ended – at least for now – in failure. Instead of procedural and organizational changes that would streamline the court process and make it more just by rejecting inflated formalism, PiS focused on conquering judicial institutions. As a result, we had a four-year debilitating conflict between political and judicial power, which also lowered Poland's credibility as a stable democracy." https://www.rp.pl/Opinie/310099922-Temida-w-stanie-nadzwyczajnym---komentuje-Tomasz-Pietryga.html -- THEY DON'T LIKE US BUT THEY COUNT ON US - TOMASZ BIELECKI in RZ: "However, this transformation did not succeed in relations with other large EU countries. After the left-wing government took power in Madrid, Poland lost the fight in the EU over posted workers and road hauliers. Relations with France remain tense, as Emmanuel Macron is positioning himself as the leader of the liberal camp and needs Kaczyński as an opponent. Despite everything, the European Commission did not convince the Council of the EU to recognize Poland as a country not respecting the rule of law. And the Visegrad Group has become as cohesive a bloc in the EU as the Nordic countries or Southern Europe." https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/310099908-Polityka-zagraniczna-PiS-Nie-lubia-nas-Ale-sie-z-nami-licza.html -- FRAGMENT OF ONET'S CONVERSATION WITH RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI ABOUT SOK Z BURAKA: "- Yes. As far as I know, he is working. - He was hired for six months as a replacement, so his contract is probably just ending. Will he continue to be employed in the office? - Yes, because he is an exceptionally well-qualified person when it comes to knowledge of networks and increasing the reach of city portals. And that's all we needed this person for. And she is doing her job well. - But you know 'Sok z Buraka', right? Have you browsed this internet profile? - Yes, sometimes content from Burak reaches me on my social media. - Do you accept the content that appears there? - I am not a censor to accept content on humorous internet portals. - Let me put it differently – do you like this content? - Some of it I like, some of it doesn't quite align with my sensibilities. Some content is funny, some is not. But I am also not someone who follows internet memes because I don't have time for it. And it's not my job to evaluate 'Sok z Buraka'. I know one thing – the person working in the office was tasked with dedicating themselves to city portals, they did that, and they were not used for anything else by the City Hall. - But did you ask the creator of 'Sok z Buraka' about this matter? Did you talk to him? - I cannot talk to every single one of the 24,000 people under my supervision all the time." -- TRZASKOWSKI ON HOW PIŚ LINKS HIM TO SCANDALS: "If PiS ministers crash cars, does anyone say 'Morawiecki's crashes'? Or if we have the Banaś affair or other problems that PiS has everywhere, is it called 'Morawiecki's affair'? No. But on TVP, it's always Trzaskowski. Trzaskowski's goats, Trzaskowski's breakdown, and everything that happens in Warsaw is Trzaskowski's fault. It's starting to get even funny. By the same token, everything that happens in Poland governed by PiS is Morawiecki's or Kaczyński's fault." -- CITIES WILL PAY FOR PIŚ - TRZASKOWSKI CONTINUES in ONET: "The tax cuts alone are over PLN 800 million, increasing Janosikowe is PLN 140 million, plus changes related to ZUS and PLN 500 million more per year for education. Just a few years ago, we paid PLN 2.5 billion annually for education, and now it's PLN 4.5 billion. These cost increases are enormous. This is because the government is increasingly shifting burdens onto local governments, including a large part of teachers' salaries. And the government also announces that subsidies will now be granted based on purely political criteria – the wealthier the local government, the less it will receive. This means that the residents of cities are to pay for a completely unprepared, unnecessary, and chaos-inducing reform." -- WE WILL HAVE TO PREPARE FOR CUTTING EXPENDITURES - TRZASKOWSKI CONTINUES in ONET: "If PiS wins the elections, we will unfortunately have to prepare to cut expenditures, freeze current spending, and postpone some investments. Because there will be no other way. Therefore, I put forward the thesis that the residents of cities will pay for the implementation of PiS's promises. Because the bill is presented to us – local governments and entrepreneurs. I hope that PiS will not have a ruling majority, and then there will be no problem, because in the Civic Coalition's program, the entire PIT is to remain within local governments. However, if PiS wins, one must be prepared for Warsaw residents to pay the bill presented by the ruling party. And I haven't even mentioned the rising prices of energy and all services yet." https://warszawa.onet.pl/trzaskowski-jezeli-pis-wygra-wybory-bedziemy-musieli-niestety-szykowac-sie-do-tego/n9lrwcl -- BIRTHDAYS: Michał Kanownik.