state of play: 10/05/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Kondzińska on PiS's voter expansion goals, Zaremba questions PiS's propaganda consumption, Wroński compares Ardanowski to Gyurcsány, Fijołek on the fight for the return of a family with mafia-like reflexes.

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF POLAND BIDS FAREWELL TO KORNEL MORAWIECKI, JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI ON ONE OF THE FATHERS OF INDEPENDENCE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/10/05/ -- MINISTER OF HEALTH ON 300 ON AIR: * Funding for Emergency Departments has increased by 50%, rates for Emergency Departments should be higher. * 50,000 doctors from abroad? From where? How? From Ukraine? Does the Polish patient want this? The basis of treatment is the Polish language. * The first campaign without a 'white town'? We have relieved hospitals. We have 11,000 more doctors in this term alone. * Tankers with illicit fuel passed trucks with illegally exported medicines. https://300polityka.pl/news/2019/10/05/300-on-air-minister-zdrowia-lukasz-szumowski-cysterny-z-lewym-paliwem-mijaly-sie-z-ciezarowkami-z-nielegalnie-wywozonymi-lekami-podkast-300polityki/ -- 300 ON AIR AVAILABLE ON APPLE PODCASTS - WE ENCOURAGE SUBSCRIPTION https://podcasts.apple.com/pl/podcast/300-on-air/id1480593474?l=pl -- AND ON SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/07iZwJ3ycMKrT8gZtqOyvx?si=cCwjnylhQAaMKh4wjSNq0Q -- BEN STANLEY ON THE AVERAGE POLL RESULT: Support for PiS remains at 46 percent, Civic Coalition can count on 29 percent, The Left on 13, PSL-Koalicja Polska on 6, and Confederation on 5. -- CONFEDERATION WOULD HAVE 3 SEATS - STANLEY ON SEAT DISTRIBUTION: “As before, support levels suggest the formation of a four- or five-party Sejm, in which PiS – with 249 seats – will have a comfortable, sole majority. Civic Coalition would come in second place with 141 deputies, ahead of The Left (49 deputies) and PSL-Kukiz (17 deputies). Whether any seats will go to Confederation is not clear at this stage, as it is balancing on the edge of the 5% support threshold. But if it manages to cross it, it would most likely obtain three places in the new parliament. The German minority, which is not subject to this requirement, will introduce one deputy.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1927222,1,stanley-dla-polityki-dhondt-daje-pis-komfortowa-wiekszosc-w-sejmie.read?src=mt -- INCREASINGLY ON CREDIT, THE STATE CONTINUES TO BE MORE PARTY-ORIENTED - PIOTR ZAREMBA ON THE BALANCE SHEET OF PIS - writes in PTT: “A correction of transformation for the benefit of the poorer – necessary, but increasingly on credit. And the construction of a state that is still more party-oriented than transparent and lawful. This is the balance sheet of four years of PiS rule. Not everything can be blamed on the radicalism and thoughtlessness of the opposition.” -- BREAKING THROUGH IMPOSSIBILITIES, BUT RIGHT-WING POLITICIANS HAVE NO SCRUPLES ABOUT MANIPULATION ON A MASSIVE SCALE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “Undoubtedly, we are dealing with the breaking of various dogmas and impossibilities in the interest of different voter groups. The imposed consequence is the reduction of social stratification. At the same time, right-wing politicians truly have no scruples about engaging in manipulation on a massive scale. In many issues concerning so-called standards, they follow the path of previous teams, but usually surpass them by several lengths. The first example that comes to mind: public television has been controlled by successive ruling parties (or coalitions) since 1995. But the idea of publishing a poll in TVP that omits one of the parties (the right-wing Confederation) because its elimination is the key to PiS winning a majority is something new. And it represents a trampling of all norms that guided even the most party-controlled teams. This creates the conviction that this government, which helps itself with its elbows in so many different areas, is in essence an authoritarian government.” -- IT WAS THE OPPOSITION THAT OPTED FOR A FRONTAL IDEOLOGICAL CLASH - ZAREMBA CITES AN INTERVIEW WITH PROF. RADKIEWICZ: “And another example: the propaganda of opposition parties and media blames PiS for unleashing a campaign targeting sexual minorities. Meanwhile, in a very interesting interview for Gazeta.pl, prof. Piotr Radkiewicz, a sociologist from the University of Warsaw, showed that the opposition (and, let's add, the LGBT communities themselves) opted for a frontal ideological clash on this issue during the European elections. With the exactly opposite effect, as it scared off many even tolerant 'normals', pushing them towards the government. Moreover, this is my addition, rejecting the radical demands of gays and lesbians (adoption of children by same-sex couples) has nothing authoritarian about it. It is a defense of the social model that has been in place for decades in Western Europe or the USA.” -- THE OPPOSITION IS EVEN MORE ABSURD IN ITS DISTRIBUTION - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “What’s more, we have a paradox: the once free-market opposition promises to add even greater spending to the already enormous expenses. In Kaczyński's and Morawiecki's language, it must lose because it is unbelievable in this regard. This, incidentally, allows moderate government supporters, uncertain about the consequences of this spending orgy, to support the government. Well, because the opposition is even more absurd.” -- HOW MUCH HAS PIS ITSELF BOUGHT INTO THE PROPAGANDA - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “I even somewhat understand the intention of buying the broadest possible support, considering the resistance of the former elites and foreign institutions to this government. I only wonder how aware the government circles are that all this is happening, to some extent, on credit. How much have they themselves bought into the propaganda served to them in daily doses by Danuta Holecka from TVP and the entire propaganda apparatus?” -- IT WAS MEANT TO BE TRANSPARENT, ALMOST NOTHING HAS MATERIALIZED - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: "In 2015, PiS charmed with the image of a party that wanted a more transparent state, more susceptible to civic control. Almost nothing of this has materialized. This is favored by Kaczyński's own vision. He decided to limit the influence of various lobbies, professional and environmental corporations, as well as courts and media, on the course of affairs, as he considered them oligarchic. But he saw the maximum strengthening of the ruling party's influence as the prescription. A party state is by definition difficult to reconcile with social control.” -- ZAREMBA BITTERLY ON JUDICIAL REFORM: “Nothing good has come of it. Better, more efficiently functioning judicial elites have not been created, and the 'hater' scandal in the Ministry of Justice has ridiculed such slogans. Citizens have not received better functioning and more justly ruling courts, because this cannot be decreed anyway. Instead, they have received the prospect of strengthening the links connecting specific judges with the authorities.” -- NEW ELITES, MEANING ACTIVISTS AND RESOURCEFUL RELATIVES IN SECURING BENEFITS - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “However, too often these 'new elites' turn out to be PiS activists, their relatives, and friends. Neither creating new customs nor influencing social consciousness, but rather resourceful in securing various benefits for themselves. Kaczyński, an outstanding politician, who does not err regarding the fundamental goal, which is a strong national state, must surely see this. In any case, he should. (...) I fear such an approach. Despite all my sympathy for many of the social goals of this government. For now, the incompetence of the liberal opposition absolves us of such questions. It has very little chance of success in any circumstances. But in the future?” https://polskatimes.pl/rzady-autorytarne-czy-wielki-projekt-sanacji-panstwa-piotr-zaremba-podsumowuje-4-lata-rzadow-pis/ar/c1-14474441 -- THIS IS NOT A WELFARE STATE - PROF. RYSZARD BUGAJ IN CONVERSATION WITH ELIZA OLCZYK IN RZ: “On the other hand, PiS has neglected spending on other services, such as healthcare. This is not the welfare state that has been talked about so much lately. Rather, it fits the second wave of privatization – we give everyone more money, and they can arrange themselves on the liberal market. Moreover, the opposition is leaning even more strongly in this direction, since PO announces that it will subsidize the salaries of every working person with low income.” -- I FEAR A PI'S SUCCESS, BUT THE OPPOSITION'S VICTORY WILL NOT SOLVE ANY PROBLEMS - BUGAJ CONTINUES IN RZ: “There is no alternative to this idealism. A moment of change is inevitably approaching, although the upcoming elections will not lead to it. I fear PiS's success, but I also fear that the opposition's victory will not solve any problems. Opposition politicians have not said, for example, what they will do with the Constitutional Tribunal. And it requires thorough reform. The idea that five judges can invalidate any law with a three-to-two vote based on vague axiological premises should not function in practice.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/310049973-Ryszard-Bugaj-To-nie-jest-panstwo-dobrobytu.html -- PAWEŁ WROŃSKI: ARDANOWSKI LIKE GYURCSANY - writes in GW: “After four years of PiS rule, the Minister of Agriculture Jan Krzysztof Ardanowski tells the directors of the most important agricultural agency the same thing that Ferenc Gyurcsány said at an internal meeting of the Hungarian Socialist Party in 2006.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75248,25272529,minister-ardanowski-trafnie-zdiagnozowal-panstwo-pis.html -- THE REST OF THE CITIZENS ARE CITIZENS IN NAME ONLY - PROF. RADOSŁAW MARKOWSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “And you must know that we are talking about 10-15 percent of society. The rest are simply citizens in name only. And not at all because they elect people who break their own constitution. They are not interested in politics, they know little about it, they vote thoughtlessly for the top candidates and – most importantly – they believe in political and economic miracles and megalomaniacal stories about a glorious national history.” -- WE NEED A NEW ENLIGHTENMENT - MARKOWSKI CONTINUES: “Western states reached their current stable state over centuries. We took shortcuts and now we have the fruits. We need Enlightenment 2.0 – from cradle to exit. So that it is like in the Netherlands or Sweden. There, if any party broke as many fundamental norms and regulations as PiS, a citizen would send it to the moon within twenty-four hours.” -- MARKOWSKI ON THE DEMOCRATIC ACCOUNTING OF PIS AND THE "OLD MAN FROM ŻOLIBORZ": “Therefore, the period of PiS rule should be accounted for – in accordance with the best procedures of a democratic rule of law state. This is necessary so that younger generations do not consider the constitution – as the old man from Żoliborz, lost in contemporary times, says – a 'scrap of paper'. It is not. But I fear that even with a unified opposition victory, there will be no reckoning. If that were the case, perhaps it would be better for the opposition parties not to form a government?” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25270704,prof-radoslaw-markowski-prezes-doskonale-wie-ze-tym-razem.html -- PIS HAS FOUND ELECTORAL RESERVES, IT FEARS DEMOBILIZATION - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “Mobilization! This is PiS's main slogan for the final days of the election campaign. Party strategists have calculated that in five to six constituencies, PiS still has significant electoral reserves. A PiS politician: – For example, in the Łańcut district in 2014, our result was not impressive, a year later 22,166 people voted for us, and in the European Parliament elections in May, a thousand less. We need to win back exactly those thousand voters.” -- PIS WILL CONCENTRATE ITS CAMPAIGN IN THE EAST - KONDZIŃSKA CONTINUES: According to our sources in PiS, there are five, maybe six constituencies in which the ruling party still has a chance to increase the number of voters by 10-15 percent. All are in southeastern Poland. Therefore, the last days of the campaign mean activity primarily in this region for PiS. The ruling camp also wants to organize the campaign finale in the East. -- A PIS POLITICIAN ON REACTIONS TO SCHETYNA: “We examined how people react to the name Schetyna, the results are very optimistic for us. Similar reactions are to the slogan Civic Coalition, which is still not widely recognized – says a politician from Nowogrodzka.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25272608,pis-boi-sie-demobilizacji-wyborcow-partia-szuka-okregow-w.html -- JOANNA SOLSKA ON CONFEDERATION'S BLOW TO PIS: “PiS did everything to 'murder' the Peasants' Party in the countryside. Meanwhile, it received a painful blow from candidates for parliament from Confederation. They revealed a recording in which Minister Ardanowski states directly that Poland may lose EU funds for farm modernization because ARiMR is functioning disastrously and is not processing applications for their approval at all.” -- SOLSKA ON KACZYŃSKI'S PLANNED APPEARANCE IN A PROGRAM FOR FARMERS: “The Polish countryside no longer lives from agriculture, so PiS does not need to worry about the declining profitability of agricultural production. However, just in case, TVP is planning an appearance by the party leader in one of the television programs watched by farmers in the coming days.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/rynek/1927192,1,tasmy-ardanowskiego-pis-obrywa-z-prawej-strony-a-wies-sie-zlosci.read -- A CINEMATIC STORY ABOUT A TEMPORARILY REMOVED MAFIA FAMILY - MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON THE NEUMANN TAPES: “This is no David vs. Goliath duel, and if anything, it's more like a cinematic story about a mafia family temporarily(?) removed from the tools for exerting absolute influence on reality. And it is clear that behind this campaign clumsiness, lack of social sensitivity and intuition stand specific interests, attitudes, and money. The latest 'Polityka' wrote that Platforma spent over a million zlotys on Facebook promotion alone – ten times more (!) than PiS. 'Wyborcza' can afford to distribute a million copies of a free newspaper in the final stretch (and these are significant costs, running into millions of zlotys), not to mention the support of other media and political institutions linked to the Third Polish Republic. Sure, the political balance today is different than in 2015, but it is not a given forever. -- THE FIGHT FOR THE RETURN TO THE FRUITS OF A FAMILY WITH MAFIA-LIKE REFLEXES - FIJOŁEK'S CONCLUSION: “Listening to the recording with Neumann, it's worth keeping that in mind. The tapes have other nuances too – like the contemptuous attitude towards Tczew – but this is rather a peculiar approach to practicing politics, which, as is commonly believed, the voter should not see backstage, just like the making of sausage. In any case, the Neumann tapes are proof that we are not facing any David vs. Goliath duel, but a fight for the return to the fruits of a family with mafia-like reflexes.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/466697-tasmy-neumanna-przypominaja-o-co-toczy-sie-gra-wyborcza -- THE TAPES ARE AN EXCELLENT PORTRAIT OF PLATFORMA - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “These tapes are the best portrait of Platforma so far. It is essentially its photograph. Against the backdrop of these tapes, the level of deceit of PO politicians is downright shocking. They know they have thieves** in their ranks, in prominent positions, but they say clearly that they will defend them to the end because they are 'their own'. What's more, in a mafia-like manner, they promise protection to anyone who joins them – regardless of what they have done. They know that people they elevate to pedestals, and even to monuments, should be led away in handcuffs, but they push on, they continue to build Potemkin villages, they continue to create more than questionable 'authorities’.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/466793-te-tasmy-to-doskonaly-portret-platformy-to-jej-fotografia -- MAŁGORZATA GOŚLIŃSKA ON OPERATION CARDINAL: “But will Francis like what Jędraszewski says about LGBT? – The Pope won't even find out about it. The hierarchs will announce him as a defender of the faith, persecuted for fighting against the force destroying the Church. This message is to go through the vox populi and the nuncio to the Vatican – comments a clergyman.” -- GOŚLIŃSKA ON CASES IN JĘDRASZEWSKI'S CIRCLE: “Paetz, who lost his high position when accused of molesting seminarians. Przykucki, who transferred priests accused of pedophilia. Bochyński, who publicly said that 'children themselves went into the beds of adults.' Jędraszewski, a contender for a cardinal's hat, who thunders from the pulpits about the 'rainbow plague,' met these clerics on his path. He does not mention them in his homilies. He erases them from his biography.” https://www.tvn24.pl/magazyn-tvn24/operacja-kardynal,238,4103 -- ON SUNDAY, THE 12TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE LAUNCH OF TVP Info. -- BIRTHDAYS: Michał Lorenc, Krzysztof Król, Bartosz Marczuk, Paulina Hennig-Kloska, SUNDAY: Marian Filar, Jerzy Hausner, Jerzy Markowski, Hanna Zych-Cisoń, Manuela Gretkowska, Piotr Dardziński, Grzegorz Łaguna, Paweł Purski.

Łukasz Mężyk