-- PIS RAISES THE ADVERTISING BAR FOR ELECTIONS - IN A NEW SPOT, JANUSZ REWIŃSKI GUIDES AN AMBIVALENT VOTER TO THE BALLOT BOX, TALKING ABOUT 'PODNIESISŁAW' AND 'TYRADLO' --https://300polityka.pl/news/2019/09/30/tyradlo-z-praca-do-utyranej-smierci-podniesislaw-schetyna-ktory-podnosi-podatki-i-dzieciece-rowerki-z-jednym-kolkiem-po-urealnienieniu-500-w-spocie-pis-siara-oprowadza-ambiwalent/ -- KIDAWA PRESENTS SENATOR GRODZKI AS FUTURE MINISTER OF HEALTH - 300live: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/09/30/ -- BAREK BEYLIN ON VOTERS' FEARS - describes in Gazeta Wyborcza a study by the prestigious think tank European Council on Foreign Relations, conducted by the Difference research firm: “What are we afraid of? Collectively, we are most afraid of illnesses (76%) and climate change (77%), although voters of KO and The Left express greater concerns in this regard (over 80%) than PiS voters (over 70%). Also high on the list of Polish fears is the restriction of privacy (70%), but here too, the ruling party's electorate fears this significantly less (over 50%) than those voting for KO and The Left (over 80%). Only in fourth place among threats is the lack of democracy. 64% of Poles fear this (40% of PiS voters, over 80% of those voting for KO and The Left). This means that although people know things are bad, and we are in the hot phase of the campaign, the issue of democracy is not generating strong emotions. The opposition has failed to turn the rule of law crisis into a campaign hit”. -- PiS VOTERS FEAR WAR AND IMMIGRATION - BEYLIN CONTINUES: “On the other hand, PiS voters, more than the other two electorates, fear war and external threats to Poland. This may incline them to support a party with strong leadership. And they are decidedly against immigration from Africa (only 16% are in favor), which radically distinguishes them from KO and The Left voters (over 60% in favor). Undecided voters, whose attitudes often fall between PiS and the opposition electorates, are also reluctant towards such immigration”. -- DO UNDECIDED VOTERS DISTRUST PiS?: “In this confrontation between PiS optimists and opposition pessimists, the changing attitudes of the undecided seem crucial – sometimes leaning closer to the ruling party's electorate, sometimes closer to the opposition. It is the undecided, like supporters of KO and The Left, who do not believe that PiS's rule will fix the state, bring material improvement, reduce inequality, and increase Poland's role in the world. However, most of them, unlike PiS voters, do not foresee an escalation of the democracy crisis, and fear a collapse of public finances less than the opposition electorates”. http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25250136,jak-leki-dziela-polakow-sondaz-przedwyborczy.html -- EVEN THE PiS ELECTORATE DOES NOT WANT A CONSTITUTIONAL MAJORITY - PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA IN OKO.PRESS ON HIS AND SIERAKOWSKI'S REPORT: “Do you know why even the PiS electorate doesn't want this party to have a constitutional majority? Firstly, people associate it negatively with the past, with a one-party monopoly. But secondly, it's about the fact that as long as PiS feels the breath of its competitor behind its back, it tries harder, hence the social programs. If they have a constitutional majority, they can write the election rules themselves, and they will stop caring about us. Pure calculation suggests it's worth giving them a majority, but not too large a one. And ideally, they should still have to negotiate with someone. If polls started showing that after counting votes into mandates PiS has a constitutional majority, the opposition electorate would probably mobilize, and some PiS voters would start to hesitate. But anything can happen. Unfortunately, in social life, individual micrationalities do not add up to rational choices for the community. The PiS electorate does not want to give them a constitutional majority, but with a weak opposition stance, this might happen. Even against the voters' intentions”. -- PiS AS HUSSARS, PO AS BUSINESSMEN: “The authors asked people to draw political parties. 'Platforma is drawn as a businessman, sometimes dishonest, sometimes completely dishonest, a banker in a limousine, with the EU flag. PiS – as a priest, an old man, in a cheap suit, a bit tattered, but always with the national flag. Or as uhlans, hussars.'” https://oko.press/sadura-nawet-elektorat-pis-nie-chce-zeby-mieli-wiekszosc/ -- FULL REPORT BY SADURA AND SIERAKOWSKI - AVAILABLE HERE: https://wydawnictwo.krytykapolityczna.pl/polityczny-cynizm-polakow-sierakowski-sadura-796 -- IT WAS KNOWN I WOULD BE PiS'S TARGET #1 - RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI IN AN INTERVIEW WITH GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN DGP: “Grzegorz Schetyna has no complaints against me, because what influence did I have on the fact that the failure in the sewage collector leading to Czajka occurred precisely during the campaign? It was known from the beginning that I would be target #1 for attacks from PiS. And the fact that the campaign is focusing on local government officials is another matter. It's clear whom Jarosław Kaczyński truly fears”. -- I'VE THANKED THE ARMY MANY TIMES, AND THE PRIME MINISTER TOO - TRZASKOWSKI CONTINUES: “I have thanked the army many times, and the prime minister as well. It's a shame that initially, instead of cooperating, the failure was used for political purposes. In such situations, everyone should help each other”. -- CBA IS JUST WAITING - TRZASKOWSKI CONTINUES: “And within the company and city offices, the CBA is just waiting to prove mismanagement to the company's management. Officials are paralyzed because the CBA is an example of an institution that today exclusively carries out political orders. The actions of the central authorities are synchronized. The chain starts with PiS councilors who plan actions in coordination with government media. The entire state apparatus is aimed at independent local government officials and is on the leash of the political propaganda machine”. -- WE ARE A THORN IN KACZYŃSKI'S SIDE - TRZASKOWSKI CONTINUES: “Not just me, many local government officials. We are a thorn in the ruling party's side because Jarosław Kaczyński hates everything that is independent. I've already gotten used to being enemy #1 for PiS. All I care about is that people are able to recognize what is normal in a democracy and what is not. Because you gentlemen must admit that the extreme politicization of all state institutions and their use against the opposition is not normal”. -- TRZASKOWSKI ON DGP'S QUESTION ABOUT HIRING THE CREATOR OF SOK Z BURAKA IN THE CITY HALL: “In April, a person was hired in the city hall who has one of the best qualifications on the market to manage online profiles. Under a six-month contract, they are conducting an audit of our websites, their recognition, and helping to expand their reach. Now, attempts are being made to suggest that we influenced what this person does in their free time from work. Nonsense. Besides, I only found out that this employee was hired for a support position when questions about the portal arose. I am surprised that an attempt is being made to equate the affair at the Ministry of Justice, steered by a deputy minister, where confidential personal information was used to discredit judges, with this situation”. -- TRZASKOWSKI ON OSIECKI AND ŻÓŁCIAK'S QUESTION ABOUT SCHETYNA'S RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RESULT: “We will all be responsible for the election results, the party leader included”. -- TRZASKOWSKI ON WHETHER HE WILL RUN FOR LEADERSHIP IN PO: “The party leader must be in the Sejm”. https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/608956,rafal-trzaskowski-warszawa-wywiad-dla-pis-jestem-wrogiem-nr-1.html -- KOWAL: IDEOLOGICALLY, I HAVE LITTLE TO OFFER A LIBERAL VOTER - says in an interview with Michał Sutowski in Krytyka Polityczna: “Family policy is something that social democracy likes from Christian democrats or centrists. But I understand you are also asking about the liberal voter of the left, for whom worldview issues are important in a very progressive sense – I admit that as Paweł Kowal, I have little to offer them. Perhaps except for integrity: I think and act as I say”. -- I AM A SIGNAL FOR THE CENTER-RIGHT - KOWAL CONTINUES: “I am on the first spot in the Krakow list as a signal to people that there is a place for the center-right in the Coalition, that people with different views fit within it. And the second thing is the specificity of Krakow itself, where the leaders of Platform have usually had a conservative profile – after all, Jan Rokita, Jarosław Gowin, and Ireneusz Raś are perhaps even further to the right than me”. -- THE BANAS CASE IS A RETURN TO THE 90S: “The scandal involving NIK president Banaś's tenement is a return to the 90s. Can you imagine what Jarosław Kaczyński would say about such a story back then? Every day I rub my eyes in amazement at how decent people from the government camp downplay this story. Do you see that without a 100% clarification of the charges, the NIK president, instead of stepping down, is dismissing his deputies? It's a scandal throughout Poland. Do you understand what the conclusion from all this is for criminal circles? Does no one see this?” -- KOWAL ON THE NEW SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION - tells SUTOWSKI: “We are undergoing some new systemic transformation, or rather a reversal of the transformation of the 90s. Some will even say we have a creeping or crawling revolution here. It mainly consists of PiS managing to link very large social groups to the party and make them dependent on it on a clientelist basis. A bit like in Latin America, where through the transfer of large sums – presented as party funds, not paid on behalf of the state, and therefore conditional on who specifically holds power – the individual well-being of a person is tied to holding a parliamentary majority”. -- WHY ARE PRIDE PARADES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CAMPAIGN? - KOWAL ASKS: “However, they do not take into account the interests of parties or environments that could implement some of their postulates if these same activists were more restrained. Why is someone organizing so many pride parades precisely in the middle of an election campaign? In towns where this hasn't happened before? Why can't it be done three months later?”. -- KOWAL ON SCHETYNA'S REALISM - THIS PESSIMISM IS A FACTOR OF MISFORTUNE: “I have learned to be a realist and I know that the only person who can help the opposition at this stage is Grzegorz Schetyna. Yet the liberal opinion world did not support him, could not even be neutral towards him. Every six months, new gods were created against him, like Petru or Kijowski, and within the party, rivals were promoted, perhaps even against their own will. And it all led to nothing. Schetyna was left with the conviction of the liberal salon that he simply doesn't fit in here, that he's not capable. This is a manifestation of pessimism that will be a factor of misfortune if it comes to pass”. -- KOWAL ON PiS'S PURCHASE OF TVN: “If PiS has as many seats in the Sejm as they do now, they probably won't go after private media. If, however, they have clearly more than 240–250, then they will resume serious talks with the Americans about buying TVN. In that case, they will need to show stronger legitimacy, which will determine whether the owners will enter into negotiations and whether they will receive political support. A result of around 232–234 will not give the American administration the feeling that this is a significant majority. This would be a serious decision, because in Anglo-Saxon culture, everyone understands that the actual dismantling of large private media in Poland is a systemic decision – that every subsequent election in Poland will be under the pressure of government propaganda”. https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/kowal-jestem-sygnalem-dla-ludzi-ze-jest-miejsce-dla-centroprawicy/ -- RESEARCH FOR RZ ON HIGH MOBILIZATION OF THE LEFT VOTERS AND LOW MOBILIZATION OF PiS VOTERS: “The Left's electorate is 100% mobilized to participate in the elections. High determination is also among the Civic Coalition – 89%. The weakest 'mobilization' result is recorded by Koalicja Polska (PSL + Kukiz’15) – 57%. How party electorates mobilize depends, among other things, on the quality of party campaigns. PiS has the highest percentage of voters who feel encouraged to vote by the campaign (67%). In KO, this is significantly less: 43%”. https://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1412991-Wyborcy-Lewicy-najbardziej-zdeterminowani-demobilizacja-w-obozach-PiS-i-ludowcow.html -- THAT'S WHY JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI IS TRYING HARDER - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA in RZ: “Because even though many loyalists and critics have already predicted PiS's success in these elections, Jarosław Kaczyński is acutely aware that favorable polls will be worth nothing if turnout fails. And this is the most significant danger facing the ruling party today”. https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/309299957-Chrabota-Mobilizacja-elektoratu-PiS-szwankuje.html -- TVP LIES IN THE SERVICE OF PIS - Wojciech Czuchnowski on the front page of GW: “Although opposition parties repeat: 'Nothing given will be taken away,' the closer it gets to the elections, the more strongly TVP propagates lies. 'Wiadomości' TVP, watched by over 2 million viewers, specializes in this”. http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25250136,przedwyborcza-propaganda-tvp-wmawia-widzom-tajny-plan-opozycji.html -- DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA ON REFERRING TVP TO COURT - writes in GW: “For many years, PiS has been accepting such donations from TVP in the form of free election spots praising the ruling party. Other parties are ruthlessly attacked. The value of these spots, broadcast during peak viewing hours, is enormous, and if the National Electoral Commission, and then the court, confirms these facts, the political party will lose thrice the value of the donations. This would be a powerful financial blow, but fully deserved, as the farce we are witnessing today has no equal”. http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25250352,skierujmy-sprawe-tvp-do-sadu-chce-posluchac-odpowiedzi-kaczynskiego.html -- KRZYSZTOF PACEWICZ ON PiS VOTERS' ESCAPE FROM FREEDOM - BASED ON THE REPORT DESCRIBED BY MAREK BEYLIN: “PiS and opposition voters agree on one thing: further PiS rule will mean 'strengthened state intervention in citizens' lives'. However, unlike opposition voters, PiS voters are not repelled by such a prospect, but are even pleased”. http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25250346,ucieczka-od-wolnosci-elektoratu-pis.html -- WIOSNA WILL MERGE WITH SLD - Rafał Wójcik in GW: “SLD and Wiosna will merge into one party after the elections. - We are mixing older activists with youthful freshness - says one politician. Perhaps Razem will join them in time”. http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25250625,powyborcze-plany-lewicy-wiosna-i-sld-chca-byc-razem-na-razie.html -- HYPOCRISY ON STILTS - TOMASZ SAWCZUK ON GOWIN'S LETTER - writes in Kultura Liberalna: “Nevertheless, this appeal is astonishing. The letter written by Gowin and his party colleagues is an example of hypocrisy on stilts. Gowin is not bothered by the fact that an operation to harass disliked judges was conducted at the Ministry of Justice, in which data from court documents were unlawfully used. He does not demand explanations or resignations from Zbigniew Ziobro. He is not bothered by the fact that in prosecutorial proceedings concerning PiS politicians, either evidence disappears (Beata Szydło's car accident) or cases are dismissed despite irregularities (Antoni Macierewicz's car accident)”. -- WHEN IS A LETTER TO ONESELF - SAWCZUK CONTINUES TO GOWIN: “Is the leader of Porozumienie a self-satisfied cynic today and doesn't notice this? Or perhaps he is silencing his own conscience with a letter to Platform? When will he direct a letter to himself for reflection?”. https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/09/30/jaroslaw-gowin-list-do-po-komentarz-sawczuk/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Jacek Pałasiński, Ireneusz Raś, Radosław Kietliński.