state of play: 09/24/2019
STATE OF PLAY: Wojtczuk on PiS's method against Trzaskowski, Sikorski: Trump is like PiS and PiS pursues a policy towards the USA like the SLD, Sierakowski on the antagonism between provinces and cities, Węglarczyk: Nobody is supervising anything
-- THE PRIME MINISTER SENDS A PLANE FOR THE VOLLEYBALL PLAYERS, SUSKI ON LACK OF TRUST IN SERVICES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/09/24
-- SUPERMINISTRY OF ECONOMY, MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND CLIMATE, REVIVAL OF MSP - DGP ON THE FRONT PAGE ABOUT PiS'S PLANS FOR A NEW GOVERNMENT (Osiecki Żółciak): “In turn, Gowin would like the Vice-President of Porozumienie, Jadwiga Emilewicz, to take over one of the newly created economic ministries or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It won't get any worse there – a PiS politician tells us about the ministry currently headed by Jacek Czaputowicz. Concrete preparations will begin after the election results. If PiS is very strong, one can expect a consolidation of ministries and a smaller but efficient cabinet. If the influence of coalition partners is significant, the puzzle will be different – says our government source”.
-- BŁASZCZAK AND ZIOBRO CAN SLEEP PEACEFULLY - DGP CONTINUES: “Mariusz Błaszczak and Zbigniew Ziobro also don't have to worry about their future. The Ministry of Justice is a difficult area, and if someone has messed it up, it's their responsibility to fix it – says a PiS politician. Besides, there doesn't seem to be any activist at the moment who could pose a threat to Ziobro. The head of the Ministry of Interior and Administration, Mariusz Kamiński, can also be sure of his position, although he will likely have to choose whether he wants to head this ministry or be the coordinator of special services. The services cannot be permanently transferred to the Ministry of Interior and Administration. This is a temporary structure – says our government source.
https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/608427,pis-wybory-parlamentarne-ministerstwo-resort-zmiana-rzad-superministerstwo.html
-- ON PiS'S METHOD AGAINST TRZASKOWSKI - MICHAŁ WOJTCZUK IN STOŁECZNA: “Just six years ago, this method was not enough to win the referendum on recalling Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz. Today, it is enough to bury Rafał Trzaskowski. Do you remember the comics about the adventures of Tytus, Romek and A’Tomek? In one of them, three friends tried to get through a dense crowd. Tytus then shouted: 'A plane crashed around the corner!' and everyone ran in the indicated direction, allowing our heroes to realize their plans. That's essentially politics in Warsaw. Almost every day, PiS activists organize conferences where, with grim faces and concerned eyes, they inform about another example of Warsaw's decline under Rafał Trzaskowski's rule”.
-- WOULD GUZIAŁ'S METHOD WORK TODAY? - WOJTCZUK'S CONCLUSION: “It wasn't enough to recall the mayor in a referendum. If the resonance chamber of social media and pro-PiS outlets had been as large then as it is today – who knows”.
http://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,25227936,politycy-pis-nieustannie-atakuja-ratusz-oplaci-im-sie-taktyka.html
-- IF PiS REACHES A RECORD IT WILL BE A CONSTITUTIONAL MOMENT - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “If PiS reaches a record, and it's a high record, we can talk about a de facto constitutional moment – even if it's not literally a constitutional majority”.
-- BREAKING THE POLISH-POLISH WAR, A TRULY NEW POLAND - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Polls, however, indicate that we can talk about a chance for something more: a significant breakthrough in what is often called our 'Polish-Polish war'. Because if Jarosław Kaczyński's party achieves a result that is, firstly, significantly higher than four years ago, and secondly, a record in the history of the Third Republic, then we will inevitably be able to talk about the end of a certain era. It will be a truly different Poland. Truly new”.
-- KARNOWSKI ON THE CONSTITUTIONAL MOMENT: “If PiS reaches a record, and it's a high record, we can talk about a de facto constitutional moment – even if it's not literally a constitutional majority”.
-- KARNOWSKI QUOTES AN ANONYMOUS PO POLITICIAN ON THE END OF THE PROJECT: “Because if, after all that has been served to it over the last four years, the camp currently in charge of Poland wins almost half of the votes – and some surveys indicate this – it will mean that the sovereign's voice is unambiguous. That there is truly no going back to what was. The opposition also seems to understand this. This is the essence of the loud statement by an anonymous PO politician, who reportedly said: If there is a 15% difference between us and PiS in the elections, then we need to think about ending the Platform project”.
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/465093-jesli-pis-siegnie-po-rekord-to-bedzie-to-juz-nowa-polska
-- VOTERS ARE HARD-PRESSED TO UNDERSTAND, THIS IS NOT THE BEST NEWS FOR THE OPPOSITION - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The campaign has entered a phase where it will be difficult for the average voter to grasp what is happening. And in such chaos, only political sympathies and antipathies will count. This is not the best news for the opposition”.
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/309239904-Szuldrzynski-Wyborcza-bitwa-na-klonice.html
-- WPOLITYCE ON LEAKS FROM PiS RESEARCH - ELECTORATES HAVE STABILIZED: “Electors have stabilized, the main political forces are basically no longer gaining new voters. 'There are simply no more to get them from,' a source close to the campaign tells us”.
-- KIDAWA TAKES FROM THE LEFT - THE AUTHOR IN WPOLITYCE CONTINUES: “The only clear flow is between Platform and the Left; PO gains at the expense of the tripartite alliance SLD-Wiosna-Razem. 'This is the effect of Kidawa-Błońska, who has dynamized the Platform's campaign, but in such a way that it has become attractive to left-wing voters' – we hear”.
-- ONLY SOMETHING WITH AN EMOTIONAL CHARGE COULD REVERSE THE CAMPAIGN'S FORTUNES: “In PiS, there is a conviction that only an issue with a truly significant emotional potential would be dangerous. 'Something like Sawicka, that could really change things to our disadvantage' – we hear”.
-- EVEN IF PSL CROSSES THE THRESHOLD, IT MAY NOT HAVE A CLUB - WPOLITYCE LEAKS FROM PiS CAMPAIGN MANAGERS CONTINUE: “Research indicates that the elections will yield the following results: Konfederacja will not cross the threshold, winning 3 or 4 percent. PSL may cross just above the threshold, but with such a poor result that it may not be able to form a parliamentary club (a minimum of 15 MPs). The Left is currently at the level of 8-9 percent and is clearly losing. Platform should gather around 30 percent support”.
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/465129-najnowsze-wnioski-sztabowcow-pis-od-tego-wszystko-zalezy
-- POLES WANT PARTNERSHIP MARRIAGES - KANTAR SURVEY DESCRIBED ON THE FRONT PAGE OF GW BY KRZYSZTOF PACEWICZ: “Contrary to the homophobic harassment, support for homosexual partnership marriages is growing. Even among PiS voters. As a nationwide Kantar poll for 'Wyborcza' shows, supporters of homosexual partnership marriages are a clear majority: 57% of Polish women and men are for it, only 38% against. The majority of women and men, the youngest, middle-aged and oldest, as well as residents of small and large cities (as many as 73% in those over 500,000 inhabitants!) support the unions. Only in villages are opponents slightly more numerous (49%) than supporters (46%)”.
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25227626,spora-wiekszosc-polakow-chce-zwiazkow-partnerskich-to-reakcja.html
-- THE POLITICAL MATCH IS STILL ONE-SIDED - DGP'S HEADLINE ON A JOINT SURVEY WITH RMF: 44.5 PiS, 23.9 KO, 14.1 Left, 6 PSL, 4.4 Konfederacja (Ibris). “PiS leads by a 20-point margin over Civic Coalition (KO) in an Ibris poll for DGP and RMF. Since the previous survey, PiS has gained 3 percentage points, and KO has lost one. Support for the Left has increased to 14%. PSL with Kukiz'15 would also enter Parliament. Konfederacja is below the threshold”. https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/608420,sondaz-wybory-parlamentarne-pis-po-ko-partie-polityczne-poparcie.html
-- THE MAYOR OF RZESZÓW SUPPORTED ZIOBRO'S CANDIDATE:
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,143907,25227695,wybory-parlamentarne-2019-byl-poslem-sld-mial-byc-kandydatem.html
-- RADEK SIKORSKI ON TRUMP AND UKRAINE - SPEAKS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Perhaps they should consider the revelations of the past few days. President Trump blocked military aid to Ukraine, wanting to force it to invent a criminal investigation against Joe Biden's son. I think that illustrates his priorities in our region quite well”.
-- AVIATION SHOULD NOT BE A PRIORITY FOR US - SIKORSKI CONTINUES: “The Americans have achieved their goals. This is their commercial success. The planes probably need to be bought, but this is not a success for Poland, but a normal commercial transaction, and for billions of dollars. Moreover, aviation should not be a priority for us, because it is precisely the area where allies would most easily come to our aid. Poland desperately needs anti-aircraft systems”.
-- THE PiS GOVERNMENT IS PURSUING A POLICY TOWARDS THE USA SIMILAR TO THE SLD - SIKORSKI CONTINUES: “The PiS government is pursuing a policy similar to the SLD government… Which sent a brigade to Iraq for free and made Kiejkuty available 'on a handshake' and took bundles of dollars in cardboard boxes. And now Poland has to pay compensation to terrorists for being interrogated in Poland”.
-- SIKORSKI ON THE THUCYDIDES TRAP: “I recommend the book by my older colleague at Harvard, Graham Allison, about the so-called 'Thucydides Trap'. Out of 16 cases where a rising power replaced an existing power, 13 ended in war. And the name 'Thucydides Trap' refers to the Peloponnesian War – the then 'world war' – caused by the growing power of Athens and the fear it caused in Sparta”.
-- TRUMP IS LIKE PiS - SIKORSKI CONTINUES: “Trump is like PiS. Even if he correctly identifies a problem – which really exists, because the Chinese have undoubtedly stolen Western technologies and have undoubtedly broken at least the spirit of agreements within the World Trade Organization – he proposes a cure worse than the disease. As in the case of PiS's 'reforms' of the courts or schools”.
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/09/24/wywiad-sikorski-huawei-trump-polska-chiny/
-- ANOTHER VOICE IN THE DISCUSSION ABOUT DISCRIMINATION OF PEOPLE WITH MENTAL DISORDERS - PRZEMYSŁAW WASZAK - doctor, psychiatry resident in Krytyka: “One in four of us will experience some mental disorder during their lifetime and will be among those needing help: after the loss of a loved one, job loss, or a random event. This is not about a sense of humor or political sympathies, but about the real suffering of people like us. Przemysław Waszak's commentary on the campaign 'Don't go crazy, go vote'. In recent days, we have observed an extraordinary outpouring of content that explicitly discriminates against people with mental disorders. In the context of the pre-election fever, a certain line has been crossed, beyond which lies only overt stigmatization”.
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/waszak-nie-oceniaj-po-prostu-idz-na-wybory/
-- PROF. MĄCZYŃSKA ARGUES FOR PiS PROPOSALS - THERE IS NO REASON FOR A SMALL COMPANY TO PAY EMPLOYEES POORLY - SHE TELLS GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI: “I see no reason why a small company should be condemned to paying employees poorly. In any business, labor productivity can be increased; even in the smallest company, there is room for technological and organizational changes, not necessarily very costly ones, e.g., joint purchasing agreements, which increase leverage with suppliers. Unfortunately, cooperation between enterprises is a weak point of our economy, and business organizations would have a wonderful opportunity here”.
-- MĄCZYŃSKA ON A "ROTTWEILER SOCIETY": “Let's take the book by British economist Paul Collier, it concerns the future of capitalism. Germany published it a few months ago and translated the title as 'Social Capitalism'. Collier is a recognized professor at Oxford; he himself comes from a poor social background and has conducted research in Africa, and inequalities have always interested him. He describes our current life as a 'rottweiler society' and shows – with detailed data – what a mistake our belief was that a rising tide lifts all boats. A rising tide sinks many boats, disrupting social interests and harmony, which Collier observed in Great Britain. The author proposes several rather surprising solutions, including much higher taxation of people in big cities, because they benefit more from public services. According to Collier, such a tax change could foster economic activation of smaller towns and encourage people to return to the provinces. I don't know if this is a good idea, but I want to show that these kinds of ideas are appearing in serious economists' debates. And I have the impression that it is not these new, sometimes crazy ideas that threaten the economy, but rather the mental inertia of the 1990s and sticking to solutions appropriate for a shrinking industrial civilization”.
http://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,25225085,placa-minimalna-prof-maczynska-nie-ma-powodu-zeby-mala-firma.html
-- THERE IS NO SUPERVISION IN THE STATE, NO ONE IS ACCOUNTABLE - BARTOSZ WĘGLARCZYK: “All recent scandals related to abuse of power by state officials have one common feature – the people responsible for supervising these individuals are not doing it, and their superiors are not holding them accountable for this lack of supervision”.
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/opinie/weglarczyk-bog-honor-ojczyzna-i-odpowiedzialnosc-komentarz/5xtlrcq
-- ON THE OCCASION OF THE CLIMATE STRIKE, SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI RECALLS THE THESIS FROM HIS REPORT ON THE POLITICAL CYNICISM OF POLES - THE ANTAGONISM BETWEEN CITIES AND PROVINCES WILL GROW: “If the attitude of big cities towards climate issues is changed, and the provinces are not moved, then instead of improving, it can even worsen, because the antagonism between cities and provinces, already very large and exploited by the rulers, will increase. Behind the 'PiS state' stands the 'PiS society,' and it lives primarily in the countryside and in small towns. Only there does PiS have an advantage over the opposition. Protests and other actions are therefore taking place on the planet where they should. Of course, the reason is simple: it's easier to find more people where they already are. The countryside is dispersed. Of course, the provinces can themselves mobilize and march on the capital like the yellow vests movement, but that's in France, where revolution is a tradition, not its negation”.
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/opinie/sierakowski-o-strajkach-ws-kryzysu-klimatycznego/sjr25rm
-- BIRTHDAYS: Janusz Steinhoff, Agnieszka Arnold, Marek Opioła.
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