-- PRIME MINISTER ON FACEBOOK: That moment when you meet a policeman and notice the patch "M. Morawiecki" on his uniform. #NoFine https://www.facebook.com/111465470197991/posts/130254171652454?sfns=mo -- MARIUSZ BŁASZCZAK TURNS 50! WELCOME! -- ONE MUST BE HERE - TODAY, FROM 4 PM AT TEATR POLSKI: LIBERAL CULTURE CONFERENCE - REBELLION OF THE PEOPLE: It is therefore worth taking the manifestations of the people's rebellion seriously – and the large protest movements in Europe. Is this a sign of the unending attractiveness of the ideals of liberal democracy? Or perhaps the convulsions of a system that is ending because it does not suit our human nature – which values struggle and dominance over others more than compromise? Is it worth – in the name of democratization – rebelling against elites? We will ask this question to the participants of the conference "Rebellion of the People. On the New Foundations of the European Union," which begins on Thursday, September 19, at 4:00 PM at Teatr Polski on Kazimierza Karasia Street 2 in Warsaw. Registration required: https://forms.gle/EovCtbD4DyFMEfnU9 -- THE CZECH REPUBLIC IS NOT BETTER THAN POLAND AND HUNGARY AT ALL - AS A PREVIEW TO THE LIBERAL CULTURE CONFERENCE, A CONVERSATION BETWEEN ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI AND A CZECH JOURNALIST: "The fact that Prime Minister Andrej Babiš is still a member of the liberal faction in the European Parliament is a sign of unimaginable hypocrisy. Emmanuel Macron and Guy Verhofstadt criticize Poland or Hungary for their actions, and at the same time sit in the same group with Babiš's party, which is in no way better than Kaczyński or Orbán," says Czech journalist Jakub Patočka. https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/09/17/andrej-babis-patocka-czechy-populizm-polityka/ -- KWIECIŃSKI TO BE MINISTER OF FINANCE FROM TOMORROW, SASIN SAYS STRZEMBOSZ IS NOT AN AUTHORITY - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/09/19/ -- PIS HAS PROBABLY REALLY MADE PEOPLE BELIEVE IN POLITICS - KINGA DUNIN IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “However, something else seems more important to me. PiS has probably really changed Polish politics. Let's look back. Weren't all successive governments in Poland essentially governments of continuation? Did the governments of UW, AWS, SLD, PO differ so much from each other? The previous shortened term of PiS also fits into this sequence – there was some national rhetoric, some idiotic attempt at vetting, but even the post-Smoleńsk fervor was not enough for PiS to win the election, because apart from that, there was nothing new in their politics, and Zyta Gilowska was the minister of finance.” -- KINGA DUNIN ON AGENCY: “I am going beyond the report in my considerations, but if I have read it correctly, one of the conclusions is: the majority of Polish voters expect a welfare state, but they are willing to believe only in concrete, immediately verifiable actions, and only from someone to whom they attribute agency. One can call this cynicism. Or populism, which is related to the loss of trust in the entire political class. For PiS, which presents itself as closer to the people, authentic, and even if sometimes awkward, it is different from previous governments ('before us, everyone stole and didn't share, didn't respect ordinary people'), this is good news.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/polityczny-cynizm-komentarz-kinga-dunin/ -- STRONG PIS IN THE LEAD - GW'S NUMBER ONE: PIS 43, KO 30, LEWICA 11, KONFEDERACJA 5, PSL 4 - KANTAR FOR GW. -- ACCORDING TO GW'S CALCULATIONS, PIS MAY HAVE 249 SEATS IN THE BEST-CASE SCENARIO: “With such a distribution of support as we saw in the results of the poll published today in 'Wyborcza,' 43% of the votes cast for Kaczyński's party would translate into about 249 seats in the Sejm, meaning a comfortable, independent majority. However, Kaczyński's party would not have enough MPs to change the constitution. This requires 307 votes, and it would be difficult for Kaczyński to find potential coalition partners in the plenary hall. Three MPs from Konfederacja – that would still be too few.” -- IN THE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO FOR THE OPPOSITION, PIS HAS 226: http://sonar.wyborcza.pl/sonar/7,156422,25207781,wybory-2019-pis-bedzie-rzadzil-samodzielnie-albo-i-nie.html -- SENATE DRAW 41:41, UNDECIDED 18. -- 39% WOULD WANT PIS TO RETAIN POWER, 40% FOR IT TO LOSE IT. -- THE "KIDAWA EFFECT" PROBABLY EXISTS - KRZYSZTOF PACEWICZ IN GW: “In the Kantar poll for 'Wyborcza,' KO has 30% support, which is a good result compared to many previous surveys. This gives the Coalition hope of closing the gap with PiS. The change from Schetyna to Kidawa-Błońska might have influenced this.” -- MORAWIECKI HIGHER THAN KIDAWA: “In the Kantar poll for 'Wyborcza,' we asked Poles to choose from a list we provided the person who would be the best head of government. Most often, they indicated Prime Minister Morawiecki (33%), followed by Civic Coalition candidate Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska (23%), and closing the podium was the head of the Lewica election staff and MEP Robert Biedroń (9%).” -- KACZYŃSKI AND SCHETYNA UNDESIRABLE AS PRIME MINISTER - FURTHER RESEARCH FOR GW: “The list of the worst possible prime ministers is topped by Kaczyński (24%) and Schetyna (22%). While opposition voters primarily indicate Kaczyński (44%) and Ziobro (24%) as the worst, PiS voters mainly indicated Schetyna (45%) and Biedroń (35%).” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25208494,efekt-kidawy-chyba-istnieje-a-najgorszymi-premierami-byliby.html -- THE BALL IS STILL IN PLAY - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “A very small number of votes could determine who will govern Poland after October 13th. Both scenarios: PiS's independent government and the opposition's government are still possible.” -- PIS AVOIDS THE TOPIC OF CONTRIBUTIONS - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “The ruling party is very strong in the polls, but it is not helped by the hacker affair of denigrating judges and the confusion surrounding ZUS contributions, which entrepreneurs are to pay. PiS plans changes here, vows there will be no increases, but does not provide specific numbers, so it is unknown if and for whom contributions will increase.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25208492,wynik-wyborow-nie-jest-przesadzony-pilka-wciaz-jest-w-grze.html -- ONET FORECAST - 246 FOR PIS: “According to a forecast developed for Onet and Fakt, the currently ruling party has the greatest chance of winning. PiS can count on 45.7% of the votes, which is equivalent to 246 seats in the Sejm. This means that Jarosław Kaczyński's party would receive 15 more seats than needed to achieve an independent parliamentary majority. At the same time, PiS would be short of 30 seats to reach 276 (with this result, the party could reject the president's veto), and also 61 seats for a constitutional majority (2/3 of all seats).” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/wybory-parlamentarne-2019-przedwyborcza-prognoza-pis-wygrywa/j2tcecp -- GAZETA POLSKA SALES GROW, NEWSWEEK AND WPROST FALL SHARPLY: https://www.wirtualnemedia.pl/artykul/sprzedaz-tygodnikow-opinii-lipiec-2019-roku-gosc-niedzielny# -- WHOEVER BELIEVES SOCIAL MEDIA IS THE ENTIRE WORLD WILL LOSE THE ELECTION - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Because the truth is, to be involved with social media, especially the very political Twitter, you need to have a great passion for politics, but most importantly, a lot of free time. If someone thinks that there are voters there who will decide the election outcome, i.e., those who can be persuaded or strongly mobilized, they are falling into a dangerous illusion. These are mostly so-called bubbles, generally quite closed groups reinforcing their already held views. Of course, it probably has some effect – in the form of an echo – on the rest of society, but it is a minimal effect.” -- PIS FOCUSED ON HASHTAGS, PLATFORMA TARGETS ENTREPRENEURS - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “While PiS is valiantly fighting for a hashtag, Platforma, firstly, has consistently taken to the country, and secondly, has precisely and pinpointedly engaged in the fight for entrepreneurs' votes, day after day convincing them that PiS threatens people running their own businesses, especially small ones, where even small increases in taxes and fees determine whether they stay afloat or sink. PiS denied it once and again, and then fell silent about it rather mysteriously, preoccupied with the hashtag issue. I repeat: maybe this hashtag is something really important (though I doubt it), but it certainly shouldn't be the number one priority for a camp fighting for 45% of the votes. 45 percent!” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/464397-trzy-dni-bitwy-o-hashtag-to-juz-niebezpieczna-przesada -- JACEK ŻAKOWSKI ON THE OPPOSITION, DESPITE THE LAMB STRATEGY, SHOULD CALL OUT PIS: “The lamb's dilemma now is that there is only one way to avoid such a catastrophe. The opposition must now clearly declare the illegality of post-election debates and the invalidity of what will be enacted during them. However, this will damage the lamb's image, make it easier to label it a bad wolf, and ruin the election strategy. Opposition leaders must decide what to risk: the election strategy (i.e., the chances of winning) or the fruits of a potential victory. I don't envy them the choice.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25207927,dylemat-baranka-czyli-klopot-koalicji-obywatelskiej.html -- WP CRITICAL OF CELEBRITY CAMPAIGN: “Despite the shortcomings of previous campaigns encouraging participation in elections, they maintained a certain level. For instance, they did not insult those who would stay home on election day. This year, unfortunately, it is different. The campaign supported by individuals associated with the opposition and organizations like KOD or Obywatele RP, under the slogan 'Don't go crazy, go vote,' is particularly controversial.” https://opinie.wp.pl/jankowski-celebryci-mowia-nie-swiruj-idz-na-wybory-ja-mowie-nie-obrazaj-po-prostu-idz-na-wybory-opinia-6425916316223105a -- JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ ON PIS'S DANGEROUS IDEAS - WRITES IN RZ: “The day will come when we will have Budapest in Warsaw – said Jarosław Kaczyński in 2011. 'Népszabadság,' Hungary's largest liberal-left opposition daily to Viktor Orbán's government, was closed in 2016, which was heavily criticized by the right-wing newspaper 'Magyar Nemzet,' which also ceased publication two years later. Today, over a hundred newsrooms belong to an empire serving the Hungarian government, and despite the European Commission's concern, the media situation in Hungary is not improving. Radio Free Europe is returning to Hungary. Poland's ranking in media freedom by the international non-governmental organization Reporters Without Borders fell from 19th place in 2014 and 18th in 2015 to 58th place in 2018. Previously, Poland had such poor ratings in 2005–2007, occupying 53rd, 60th, and 56th place respectively.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/309189896-Nizinkiewicz-Niebezpieczne-pomysly-rzadzacych-na-dziennikarstwo-w-Polsce.html -- CLIMATE CATASTROPHE AWARENESS IS GROWING - IPSOS FOR OKO: “Half of Polish women (54%) and men (47%) know that the world faces a climate catastrophe; this awareness is slowly growing. Twenty-year-olds are strangely calm, and men under 40 mostly deny the threat. Two-thirds of PiS voters and three-quarters of Konfederacja voters listen to their leaders and believe that 'the opinion about climate catastrophe is exaggerated.'” https://oko.press/not-great-not-terrible-polacy-wobec-katastrofy-klimatycznej-sondaz-cz-1/ -- 26 years ago: The Democratic Left Alliance won the snap parliamentary elections. -- BIRTHDAYS: Mariusz Błaszczak, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, Zbigniew Kuźmiuk, Bolesław Piecha, Janusz Zaorski, Maciej Sitarz, Wojciech Grzybała.