state of play: 09/14/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Zaremba: Everything Points to Morawiecki Remaining at the Top, Mazur: The Right Has Stopped Questioning the Third Republic and Started Addressing Its Weaknesses

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PIS’S RESOLUTE AD IS SET TO DOMINATE THE WEEKEND: https://300polityka.pl/news/2019/09/14/ekipie-pana-grzesia-w-nic-nie-da-sie-uwierzyc-ekipa-obrotowa-przytula-sie-z-ciasteczkowym-rewolucjonista-w-motywacyjnym-spocie-pis-z-dystansem-nikt-nie-wygral-siedzac-na-kanapie-na-tinderze/ -- SCHETYNA ON THE POWERPOINT CLOWNS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/09/14/ -- THE MOST IMPORTANT THING FOR THE RIGHT IS TO START TREATING THE REALITY OF THE STATE AS THEIR OWN; THE RIGHT HAS STOPPED QUESTIONING THE THIRD REPUBLIC AND STARTED ADDRESSING THE WEAKNESSES OF THIS STATE - KRZYSZTOF MAZUR IN CONVERSATION WITH PIOTR WITWICKI IN PLUS/MINUS RZ: “It doesn’t contradict. To your question about John Paul II, the answer is that he is an inspiring figure for me. I come from an environment that grew up on his encyclicals. However, I don’t need to embellish ideas close to me with saintly quotes. It is more important to put them into practice. Regarding the Olszewski government, I expressed in that material a deep conviction that the most important thing for the Polish right is to start treating the existing state as its own. The last four years have been an important stage in this process. The right has stopped questioning the Third Republic and started to confront the weaknesses of this state. It must set measurable goals, and they are more important than glorious defeats. All of this is within me, but I also see it in Kaczyński’s recent speech about the welfare state.” -- I WOULD BE A MUCH BETTER SENATOR FOR CRACOW THAN THE COMPLETELY PASSIVE BOGDAN KLICH - MAZUR CONTINUES: “However, I believe that I will be able to speak about many things in the campaign honestly: with intellectual depth, but also engaging people. And that I would be a much better senator for Krakow than the completely passive Bogdan Klich. How will it end? I don’t know. Will people choose this? I don’t know. Will PiS fully accept me in this role? I don’t know. This is a risk I’m taking on.” -- MAZUR ON YOUTUBE: “They have them, sometimes very close, but they form them in a surprising way for me. For example, I met a young man who had very right-wing views and didn’t know that a weekly magazine like 'Do Rzeczy' existed. He built all his right-wing ideology on YouTubers I didn’t know. One city, two relatively young people with similar views, and we had completely different information channels that we followed. This is, in a way, frightening.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/309139985-Krzysztof-Mazur-Nie-warto-dla-polityki-zaplacic-kazdej-ceny.html -- THE MOST CONTENTIOUS SEJM IN HISTORY - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ: “The Sejm, living out its final days, will be remembered as the most contentious in history. A few times, the atmosphere was so tense that it was a hair's breadth away from MPs from opposing camps coming to blows. The closest to physical altercations was at the end of 2016, when the opposition blocked the plenary hall for several weeks.” -- WILL THE CITIZEN'S COALITION FARE AS WELL ON CRITICISM OF THE MINIMUM WAGE AS THEY DID ON CRITICISM OF 500+ IN THE PREVIOUS CAMPAIGN? - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “The Civic Coalition is starting a new stage of its election campaign. New billboards with a new slogan will be hung on the streets: 'Cooperation, not quarrels.' The group also intends to consistently warn against PiS's announced increase in the minimum wage to PLN 4,000. The only question is whether the Civic Coalition won't end up like they did with their criticism of 500 Plus in the previous parliamentary campaign.” -- EVERYTHING POINTS TO MORAWIECKI REMAINING AT THE TOP - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN PTT: “In reality, however, everything points to Morawiecki remaining at the very top. Of course, Kaczyński was pleasantly surprised when it turned out that the campaigns led by him first were gaining, rather than losing, thanks to his presence. It's possible that for a moment, for a few moments, he dreamed of regaining formal power as well. But he is 70 years old this year. In November, he is scheduled for an operation. However, managing from the back seat is more comfortable than constant, intense attention at the wheel. And the Civic Coalition-PO’s decision to nominate Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska definitively invalidates the notion of a 'rank-and-file MP running the country.' For him, holding the reins of the party with a firm hand is enough.” -- ZIOBRO WILL LIKELY REMAIN BECAUSE HE CHECKS MORAWIECKI - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “PiS has just defended Zbigniew Ziobro in the vote of confidence in the Sejm. They were naturally obliged to offer this defense. But the question of whether Ziobro will remain Minister of Justice even after the elections should probably also be answered affirmatively. For many reasons: because he is an important PiS coalition partner and the face of the judicial reform, which is a product of Kaczyński’s own thinking. But there is one more reason added to these many reasons. The PiS leader uses him to checkmate Morawiecki. No, he doesn't conspire with him; it's enough that these two politicians are condemned to rivalry. 'Divide and rule' will remain the maxim at the top, even after October 13th.” https://polskatimes.pl/piotr-zaremba-jak-prezes-pis-trzyma-w-szachu-premiera-morawieckiego/ar/c1-14419341 -- WHY TERESKA VOTES FOR PIS - NATALIA DE BARBARO IN GW: “Tereska was friends with her gay neighbor for years. They were close – the neighbor, along with his partner, would sit at the Christmas Eve table with Tereska, her sister, and mother. It started to deteriorate a few years ago. In the elevator or on the stairs, the neighbor started shouting at her and accusing her. One day, she saw a large ‘PIS OFF’ sticker on his door. Tereska still leaves dog food for him by the door, and he sometimes takes out her trash. ‘But only gestures remain,’ she says. It hurts her when people 'so lightly' call her a fascist – her, the daughter of a prisoner from the Ravensbrück and Leipzig camps. ‘I feel like they are equating me with my tormentor.’ Why does she vote for PiS? Because it passed a ban on taking children away from parents due to poverty. Because in the village where her friend lives, the bus route was restored, and children don’t have to look for a boarding school in a big city. Because after the 500+ program, out of fifteen children who used free lunches at school, only four remained – their parents were proud that they could opt out.” -- THE STATE HAS NO MORAL RIGHT TO INCITE HATRED - DE BARBARO CONTINUES: “Does the PiS state only do bad things? Not only. It also does things my friend talked about. But the state has no moral right to incite hatred. The hierarchs of the Catholic Church are also contributing to this – I write this with great pain, as someone who still considers herself a Christian, though no longer a Catholic. It terrifies me that they can stray so far from the Commandment of Love.” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25187620,natalia-de-barbaro-a-jednak-cos-nas-laczy-i-my-i-oni-chcemy.html -- I WATCH WITH SADNESS AS PIS LOSES AUTHORITY - MAŁGORZATA KIDAWA-BŁOŃSKA IN CONVERSATION WITH NATALIA WALOCH IN GW: “Because today, PiS MPs feel they are unpunished. If they overstep, the Marshal will say it was emotions and it happens. Meanwhile, our MPs get financial penalties for speaking up in the plenary hall. Criticism of the government, or PiS in general, is a 'violation of the dignity of the Sejm.' I watch with sadness as the Sejm loses its authority and becomes a cause for mockery.” -- I DON'T FIT INTO KACZYŃSKI'S POLAND - KIDAWA CONTINUES: “After Jarosław Kaczyński’s speech on Saturday, I see that I don’t fit into his Poland at all. With my views, my approach to the world.” -- THE STATE WILL NOT DEVELOP IF ENTREPRENEURS ARE BURDENED - KIDAWA CONTINUES: “If someone thinks that the easiest way to impose new taxes is on entrepreneurs, then they accept that our state will not develop. Because the Polish economy is largely built on small and medium-sized enterprises, where people calculate money very rationally. I spoke with small entrepreneurs – a hairdresser wonders if she won’t have to fire someone, a shoemaker says he will close his business if PiS’s promises are realized. Our idea is that from January, 6.5 million Poles will receive PLN 600 more in hand, because we are lowering PIT and ZUS contributions. Besides, the minimum wage will be linked to the national average. This is a very rational solution.” -- MKB TO WALOCH'S QUESTION WHETHER SHE WANTS TO WIN AGAINST PJK IN WARSAW: “I think I would win with a better program, an approach to the world, and simply towards fellow human beings.” http://www.wysokieobcasy.pl/wysokie-obcasy/7,53662,25189000,malgorzata-kidawa-blonska-nie-musze-grac-na-meskich-zasadach.html -- THEY WON'T BRING SHAME BUT THEY HAVE SCANDALS TO THEIR NAME - Przemysław Sadura and Sławomir Sierakowski based on their research on attitudes towards PO: “Cynicism in the variant concerning PO is a relatively widespread conviction that although the politicians of this formation have scandals and lies to their name, that they are comfortable, rich, and arrogant, they do not bring us shame in the world, they care for economic development and democratic freedoms. Voters are not pretending to be idealists. They say directly to the interviewer and other participants that they are waiting for whoever gives more.” -- AUTHORS OF THE REPORT ON THE PLATFORM'S PROBLEM: “The main problem for the Platform in retaining this electorate is the lack of natural ideological barriers and growing cultural contradictions between the hard core of PO and the unstable electorate in the provinces. If this opposition grows – fueled by the government’s policy and the programmatic impasse in PO – the unstable PO electorate may be divided among more cohesive, distinct formations. The provinces might choose PiS (or PSL), and big cities – the Left.” -- SADURA AND SIERAKOWSKI ON THE NEW PIS ELECTORATE: “The new PiS electorate, which plays a decisive role in the recent election results, clearly differs from the 'old' PiS electorate. In short, support for PiS among the new electorate is conditional, or rather instrumental – as if welfare recipients were using their party and its will to stay in power. These are mostly residents of villages and small towns. They are moderately conservative, but it is not worldview issues that attract them most to PiS.” -- PIS VOTERS FEAR MONOPOLY, FEEL SAFER WHEN PIS HAS COMPETITION: “PiS voters do not want a monopoly for their party, and they even fear it. Most, even among the staunchest supporters, were skeptical about a constitutional majority for PiS. They feel safer when Kaczyński's party has competition.” -- SIERAKOWSKI AND SADURA ON THE BAVARIAN VARIANT WITH INTEREST: “The Platform, supported by PSL or the moderate left, is learning to be a democratic PiS. Our research clearly showed that Poles are willing to accept a welfare state in a conservative version, one where entitlement to benefits stems from the employment of the 'family breadwinner' (work by at least one spouse). An expression of this approach is the common opinion that 500 plus should not be given to 'pathology' (those who do not work and live on social benefits) nor to the richest.” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25188526,jacek-kurski-mowil-ciemny-lud-to-kupi-sprawdzilismy-lud-to.html -- PIS'S CULTURAL REVOLUTION IS FRUITLESS - JAKUB MAJMUREK ON GLIŃSKI'S POLICY: “PiS’s cultural revolution is culturally barren, impotent. It destroys what works well enough, and creates nothing new. If it continues for the next four years, it will make life difficult for many institutions, creators, and cultural recipients. It will shrink the space and opportunities available to culture in Poland, suffocating every initiative that doesn't fit within the narrow definition of national culture adopted by the ruling party. PiS will not impose its monolithic, ideological vision on culture, but it will waste a period when excellent economic conditions and a full budget give the state extraordinary opportunities to support a culture open to content that is also interesting to citizens who do not necessarily vote for Kaczyński’s party.” https://www.tvn24.pl/magazyn-tvn24/minister-skansenu-narodowego-cztery-lata-rzadow-pis-w-kulturze,234,4040 -- TRANSFERS ARE IMPORTANT, BUT PIS IS PRIVATIZING THE STATE - ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI FROM KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Indeed, cash transfers are significant support for many, especially less affluent Poles. But with the simultaneous collapse of public services, they will not make Polish society more equal. Children of wealthier Poles will still go to better (often private) schools, and their parents will receive treatment in private clinics, bypassing growing queues. Poorer individuals, on the other hand, may remain in chaotic public schools and underfunded healthcare facilities. They may also spend their 500 plus on additional tutoring for their children or medical services they cannot obtain in the public system.” -- NO REFORM HAS SUCCEEDED FOR PIS - PAWŁOWSKI CONTINUES: “Nothing of the sort has happened. In fact, almost every major reform or initiative announced by the ruling party has either been completely abandoned or is continued only in theory, while in practice, it has virtually no chance of implementation. To the latter category, I would include, among others, the announcements of the revival of the Polish shipbuilding industry through the construction of large cruise ships or the famous idea of creating a 'Polish electric car.' Although according to the initial announcements, its first prototype copies were supposed to be ready last year, to this day we haven’t even seen a car design. There is no point in even mentioning the creation of a production line, a distribution network, or the selection of a contractor. Nevertheless, ElectroMobility Poland, which was supposed to supervise production, is still active.” -- NO NEW, THOUGHT-OUT QUALITY IS BEING CREATED, RATHER A STATE WITHOUT ANY ORDER - PAWŁOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: “I assume that we all also want fewer people to die on Polish roads. And we can easily achieve this goal – just completely ban the use of cars and motorcycles, and close the roads. However, the costs of this solution would be enormous. Kaczyński’s proposal may be similar. But the president doesn’t want to discuss that anymore. Finding a better, more complex solution would require time, discussion, compromise, and methodical implementation of agreed-upon solutions. And PiS is not good at this. So, when we hear about major investments and infrastructure projects in PiS’s budget plans today, and about the transformation of society in the speeches of the president and prime minister, we should treat these announcements with great caution. Indeed, those in power can ruin the careers of many of their opponents, they can also discredit a whole series of public institutions. But – despite PiS having almost full power for four years – no new, thought-out quality is being created in place of these destructions. And certainly not a welfare state. It is rather a state 'without any order.'” https://www.tvn24.pl/magazyn-tvn24/tworzymy-panstwo-dobrobytu-oto-najwiekszy-mit-pis,234,4038 -- PIO'S ELECTORAL VICTORY WAS INTERPRETED AS THE RIGHT TO ENTER NON-POLITICAL DOMAINS - ROMAN GRACZYK IN INTERIA: “What happened is that from the very beginning of this term until its end, Law and Justice demonstrated a lack of respect for rules, including disrespecting the boundary between the power of the parliamentary majority and the sphere constitutionally not subjected to this power, such as the Constitutional Tribunal or the courts. From the beginning, from autumn 2015, PiS derived from its democratic mandate not only the right to govern but also the right to intervene in areas constitutionally reserved for non-political bodies. This led to the fundamental misunderstanding between supporters and opponents of this party regarding its mandate to govern. While opposition supporters said they did not deny PiS the mandate to exercise power, but the mandate did not authorize intervention in apolitical areas, PiS supporters replied that this criticism questioned the mandate. Indeed, it is difficult to find a greater misunderstanding about the foundations of representative democracy. Some understand it as power limited by constitutional rules, others as unlimited power. What does this imply for our topic?” -- PIS WILL NOT HESITATE - GRACZYK CONTINUES: “It implies that PiS might decide in this last session of the old Sejm, after the elections, to implement decisions that do not fall within the competence of the parliamentary majority. Under what circumstances will it decide to do so? Only if it loses the elections (or fails to secure an independent majority), which is unlikely. So, this is a backup solution, devised in case something goes wrong in the elections. Presumably, nothing of the sort will happen, and there will be no need to resort to extraordinary measures. But if the need arises, Mr. Kaczyński’s party will not hesitate to do so. Just as it did not hesitate to break not only custom but outright law dozens of times, feeling impunity – both from institutions (which it reshaped in its image) and from its supporters (who have this peculiar understanding of a democratic mandate as unlimited power).” https://fakty.interia.pl/opinie/graczyk/news-stary-sejm-jako-nowy,nId,3199161 -- 44% FOR PIS IS STILL LESS THAN HALF - ADAM SZOSTKIEWICZ: “Even if it is true that 44% of poll participants want to vote for PiS, it is still less than half. And let’s stick to that in our commentary. PiS has never had, and still does not have, the majority of citizens behind it.” -- WHERE ARE THE ANSWERS TO THE CHALLENGES OF THE DECADES? - SZOSTKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “Where are PiS’s answers to the challenges of the coming decades, from digitalization to artificial intelligence, to ecology, renewable energy, stifled by PiS in favor of the coal lobby, and the fight against global warming? Where is a thoughtful plan to counteract the demographic decline? President Kaczyński spouts neo-Marxist nonsense about a 'post-colonial' Poland, but neither he nor Morawiecki, let alone the ministers, present any coherent concept for combating the social, economic, and cultural consequences of our society’s aging. And for saving the healthcare system, which is an element of this fight.” https://szostkiewicz.blog.polityka.pl/2019/09/12/neosocjalizm-z-koscielna-twarza-refleksja-przedwyborcza/?nocheck=1 -- 10 YEARS AGO, the first issue of “Dziennik Gazeta Prawna” was published. -- BIRTHDAYS: Małgorzata Hajewska-Krzysztofik, Jerzy Zelnik, Joanna Schmidt, ON SUNDAY: Marcin Mastalerek, Grzegorz Osiecki, Tomasz Jastrun, Katarzyna Adamiak-Sroczyńska, Magda Żakowska, and the author of Stan gry.

Łukasz Mężyk