-- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI ON HIS EVENING CONVERSATION WITH THE PRESIDENT OF THE NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/09/11/ -- 500 PLUS + HIGHER WAGES + DROUGHT = RISING PRICES IN SHOPS - FRONT PAGE OF GAZETA WSPÓŁCZESNA (TODAY'S NEWSPAPER). -- THE MOST BORING CAMPAIGN IN YEARS, BUT EVERY EMOTIONAL SURGE BENEFITS THE OPPOSITION - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “As a result, the campaign is basically just boring, especially compared to previous ones. But it is this boredom that is the key to victory. Every spike in temperature, every deviation from the course, serves the opposition. Let us add: the opposition is unable to break this boredom, because every clash requires two sides. When one side evades confrontation, the blow lands in a vacuum. The campaign is not yet decided; the mobilization of voters on each side will determine it (on PiS's side, it's very high despite the boredom accompanying the electoral fight). However, today we can say that Kaczyński's formation is fully realizing its set goals and is firmly in control of the situation.” -- THE CAMPAIGN ON THE ECONOMIC FRONT - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Everything is focused on the one area that can secure the right-wing camp re-election, namely the socio-economic sphere, with a suitable, but not overly large, addition of worldview issues. The opposition is unable to break through this. Even they are essentially playing in PiS's field, making clumsy attempts to outbid PiS and tempering their radicalism by nominating the calm Kidawa-Błońska.” -- PIS IS NOT TAKING ADVANTAGE OF OPPORTUNITIES, EVEN WITH THE WARSAW SEWAGE ISSUE - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Let's note: PiS is not capitalizing on opportunities even where it could theoretically achieve a victory, for example, in the matter of Warsaw sewage. Political comments were quickly withdrawn, focusing on providing aid. If, for instance, a decision had been made to appoint a commissioner to the capital, some voters would have been satisfied, but instead of discussing PiS's program, we would have debated for weeks whether it was a justified decision.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/463140-to-jest-najnudniejsza-kampania-od-lat-ale-taka-ma-byc -- INVEST OR DIE - Marcin Kędzierski in an analysis by the Jagiellonian Club: “The fundamental message is simple, clear, and radical: invest or die. The announcement of a gigantic increase in the minimum wage can be seen as a sign of the government's helplessness and a desperate attempt to force entrepreneurs to increase their private investment rate. And there are countless questions, doubts, and potential consequences to the realization of Jarosław Kaczyński's electoral promise made on Saturday.” -- FORCING ENTREPRENEURS TO INVEST - KĘDZIERSKI CONTINUES: “A radical increase in the minimum wage can be seen as a sign of the government's helplessness and a desperate attempt to force entrepreneurs to increase their private investment rate. Prime Minister Morawiecki's ambitious plans stipulated that we would allocate 25% of GDP to investments. Unfortunately, after 30 months since the adoption of the Strategy for Responsible Development, the investment level has still not exceeded 20% – without public investment, these statistics would look even worse. In this area, we fare poorly even compared to our partners in the Visegrad Group. Paradoxically, it is difficult to blame the government for this situation, which has implemented, among other things, two innovation acts creating significant incentives for investment. Unfortunately, the significant effects of these actions are not yet visible.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/09/10/placowa-bomba-atomowa-co-wyniknie-z-podniesienia-przez-pis-placy-minimalnej/ -- PIS'S FORMER PROGRAM AS AN ADDITION TO THE DISTRIBUTION PACKAGE, BECAUSE PIS IS UNSURE IF POLES WILL ACCEPT THE RIGHT-WING AGENDA - PIOTR ZAREMBA in the electoral Plus/Minus section of Rzeczpospolita: “When we shift the sphere of comparison from effectiveness to republicanism, it is a failure for both sides of the fundamental clash. PiS has shown that all other elements of its program, those that once constituted its identity, are becoming an addition to the distribution package. Neither Kaczyński nor Prime Minister Morawiecki are sure if they would win, primarily by offering Poland a 'stand up from its knees' stance in foreign relations or adherence to traditional values. Of course, these points have not been abandoned. But they are supplementary, serving to further mobilize the core electorate. The social package is meant to be decisive, sometimes vaguely linked to emphasizing the role of a strong state in fostering economic development. A reflection arises: what if some promises turn out to be unfulfillable or generate unforeseen disturbances? Then they will remain naked and defenseless. Unsure if Poles truly accept their 'right-wing' agenda.” -- PIS'S NEXT BIG PROGRAMS BODE ILL FOR PUBLIC SERVICES - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “PiS's next major programs bode ill for segments such as healthcare and education (although, on the other hand, mysterious funds for building schools and hospitals were promised – amidst chronic problems with wages in both sectors). These will remain underfunded, bogged down, and on the margins of interest. Meanwhile, trying to say something about topics 'neglected by the right-wing,' former liberals resort to pure juggling. We still haven't learned how they intend to reduce waiting times for specialist doctors (to 21 days) or decrease cancer incidence. PR specialists advise: look for their weak points. But the effect of these searches is more than meager. Rather, it highlights the 'moon-like' nature of the entire 'debate.' -- PIS MEMBERS SOMEHOW MANAGED IN THE SYSTEM OF PO'S VELVET DICTATORSHIP IN A DEMOCRATIC GUISE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES in Rzeczpospolita: “It is true that PiS uses 'heavy' means that a few years ago were beyond anyone's imagination – from massive campaigns on TVP to large-scale use of the justice system in distributing political roles. But it is also true that the entire history of the Third Polish Republic is a story of crossing successive boundaries. SLD did it. PO's governments were described as a system of velvet 'dictatorship' in a democratic guise. PiS members seemed helpless in this system. Somehow, they managed.” -- THE OPPOSITION UNWITTINGLY SUPPORTS PIS PROPAGANDA - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “For now, the opposition does not believe in its success. And it is convinced that the key lies in effective propaganda, which is on a scale beyond its reach. If so, why does it unwittingly support this propaganda? Either by taking on the role of a counterfeit, a co-author of changes that it simultaneously presents as a national tragedy. Or by allowing itself to be manipulated, cast in the role of inept malcontents. With 33 days until the elections, no one will probably be able to answer such a question anymore.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus-na-wybory/309109935-Intelektualna-bezradnosc-opozycji.html -- JAROSŁAW FLIS ON THE PORTUGUESE SCENARIO – PIS WINS BUT DOESN'T GOVERN - writes in the Rzeczpospolita electoral supplement: “If we convert today's polls into seats, there is a chance for that. However, such a result is obtained only if we assume that undecided voters will divide their votes among the parties in the proportion of their current strength. If we assume that those wavering are those who do not know which opposition party to choose, PiS loses its independent majority. Then a second scenario emerges – the one that Portugal practiced four years ago. The largest party is removed from power by a coalition of three smaller ones. This scenario is made plausible by a cluster of factors.” https://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1411558-Choroba--dwubiegunowa.html -- NO HIGHER ZUS LUMP SUM - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Let's start with the 'Gazeta Wyborcza' reports. Government members, including the Prime Minister, have been explaining since morning that the calculation of ZUS from income announced at the convention applies only to micro-entrepreneurs, the smallest sole proprietorships, and the aim of the operation is not to increase but to reduce contributions for this group. It's about reducing the burden on this group by about a billion zlotys – that's how much lower the revenue to the Social Insurance Fund will be. Hence the proposed change. - Regarding other groups of entrepreneurs, we are not touching the ZUS lump sum; it will be calculated the same way as before. There were and are no such ideas – explains a politician from the Prime Minister's Chancellery.” -- KARNOWSKI ON GW AND RZ 'FAKE NEWS' ABOUT ZUS: “Government politicians emphasize that since they took power, the burdens on the small and medium-sized enterprises sector have been reduced by a total of 4 billion zlotys, a matter that can be most affected by the minimum wage. As we can see, we have the full colors of the campaign, meaning another day of fake news behind us. There will be no ZUS increase for entrepreneurs, no bankruptcies will occur, but what they have instilled is fear.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/463290-kolejny-dzien-z-fake-newsami-zadnej-podwyzki-nie-bedzie -- LAW AND JUSTICE HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A WIDE FINANCIAL STREAM - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ in Rzeczpospolita: “Today, Prime Minister Morawiecki has outdone Gierek in promises. He publicly scolds the media if they do not praise the government's successes. He doesn't want to remember that in 2016, he said that 500+ is on credit. And credits have the characteristic that sooner or later they must be repaid. Jarosław Kaczyński has opted for subordinating the state to himself and buying voters. Thanks to the fact that Law and Justice has been replaced by a wide financial stream, PiS will win the next elections. And it will be a victory on credit, painful for future generations.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/309109883-Nizinkiewicz-Pieniadze-zastapily-prawo-i-sprawiedliwosc.html?cid -- PARADOXICALLY, THE EXCESSIVE CLOSENESS OF THE CHURCH AND PIS CAN LEAD TO TURBO-ZAPATERISM - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI in Rzeczpospolita: “Excessive politicization of the Church is a problem in any democratic country, but in Poland, it can have particularly dire consequences. PiS will not rule forever, and political opponents may want to take revenge on the Church. And if PiS rules for another four years, the next elections will turn into a total ideological clash, where the religious right will clash with the progressive and liberal left. Whoever wins will take no prisoners. Paradoxically, therefore, the excessive closeness of the Church and PiS may, in the future, accelerate the process of secularization and lead to a Polish version of turbo-zapaterism.” -- THE ALLIANCE WITH PIS GIVES THE CHURCH A SENSE OF BLISS, WEAKENING THE PRESSURE TO DEAL WITH PROBLEMS - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “But perhaps the most important thing is that the alliance with PiS gives the Church a sense of bliss today. As a result, the pressure to deal with its problems weakens. Thus, there is no particular zeal in the Church to combat cases of pedophilia. Bishops readily wage war against the 'rainbow plague,' against gender ideology, but much less willingly against pedophilia within the Church. The Sekielski film caused only a temporary shock, and the Church decided to wait out this momentary surge. And in the short term, it worked. In the long term, hiding these problems will backfire on the Church. Unresolved problems and hidden sins will return with doubled force. This is what happened in Germany, the USA, Australia, and Ireland. There is no reason to believe it will be different in Poland.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus-na-wybory/190919919-Michal-Szuldrzynski-PiS-robi-z-Kosciola-politycznego-zakladnika.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Teresa Bochwic, Aleksandra Rybińska, Wiesława Dróżdż.