state of play: 09/09/2019
STATE OF PLAY: Stankiewicz: Kaczyński as God of War, Warzecha: PiS not pursuing conservative agenda, Sawczuk: Civic Platform donned another mask to please. PiS showed a vision, Szułdrzyński: PiS is intensifying to cover up deficits
-- MAŁGORZATA KIDAW-BŁOŃSKA'S FIRST APPEARANCE AFTER NOMINATION - TODAY ON "KROPKA NAD I" - WITH MONIKA OLEJNIK.
-- GOWIN: I WOULDN'T SAY IT LIKE KACZYŃSKI - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/09/09/
-- THE GAMES OF FREEDOM BEGIN ON FRIDAY - HOW DEMOCRACIES WIN - Among the guests of the Games of Freedom 2019 will be: Radosław Sikorski, Masha Gessen, Bernard Guetta, Marek Belka, Elżbieta Bieńkowska, Michał Boni, Katalin Cseh, Joanna Bator, Łukasz Orbitowski, Marek Safjan, Ewa Łętowska, Wojciech Sadurski, Kaja Kallas, Tadeusz Gadacz, Andrzej Olechowski, Danuta Huebner, Barbara Nowacka, Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus, Tom Palmer, Marcin Meller, Justyna Kopińska, Sofia Nerband, Adam Bodnar, Krystian Lupa, Paweł Potoroczyn, Magda Mołek, Jarosław Gugała, Jurgen Martens, Daniel Kaddik, Leszek Balcerowicz, Jacek Żakowski, Jerzy Wójcik, Bartosz Węglarczyk, Detmar Doering, Daniel Milo. This year, the Games of Freedom will feature performances by: Wojtek Mazolewski Quintet X Komeda, Lao Che, and Ørganek.
https://igrzyskawolnosci.pl/program/#rdv-calendar
-- PASSES, INCLUDING VIP PASSES: https://sklep.liberte.pl/product/karnety-na-iw-2019/
-- SCHETYNA AS MARSHAL, KOSINIAK AS PRIME MINISTER? - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA ON OPPOSITION SCENARIOS IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: "If the opposition agrees to Prime Minister Kosiniak, then Schetyna will calmly ask for the position of Marshal of the Sejm for himself as part of coalition equilibrium. And this position grants considerable power, independence from the prime minister, the ability to block specific legislative projects, and thus influence over the actions of the ruling coalition. In practice, Poland would be governed in such a situation by the Kosiniak-Schetyna duo. So, to summarize, nominating Kidawa-Błońska was not a great sacrifice on Schetyna's part, because the leader of Civic Platform knows that his chances of becoming prime minister are not high."
-- THE BALL IS IN PLAY - WIELOWIEYSKA ON PiS SCENARIOS:"All these games and maneuvering around prime ministerial candidates indicate that despite PiS's excellent poll results, the ball is still in play, and even small shifts in electoral outcomes can lead to unexpected results and surprising personnel decisions."
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25170763,partyjne-podchody-przedwyborcze-co-kombinuje-schetyna-a-co.html
-- EVERYTHING IS FALLING APART IN THE OPPOSITION - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: "Almost everything here is really falling apart: the ratings are so dire that in the final stretch, the leader of Civic Platform decides on a U-turn, and not only do subsequent important politicians from the Civic Coalition lists (Poncyljusz, Zimoch, Święcicki) not remember basic, almost (pre-)school thematic combinations about the program (the so-called Schetyna's six-pack), but even the author and face of these ideas himself. Rank-and-file activists don't even associate the slogans from the convention ('Tomorrow could be better'), and to present such an opportunity to the rival when they have their convention tomorrow... This requires considerable brains. Of course, Madam Marshal Kidawa-Błońska is a cultured and liked politician, but she also has her limitations, which cannot be compensated for by intensive, dozen-hour PR training. This was evident during her speech."
-- STEAMROLLER VS. CRISIS MANAGEMENT - FIJOŁEK AGAIN: "Without further ado, to put it succinctly: while the leaders and strategists of PiS are shifting gears of the political steamroller, Civic Platform is in a state of permanent crisis management. Naturally, good marketers can turn even the most difficult crisis into at least a semblance of success, but it doesn't seem to be the case here. Especially since this blind faith in 'PR' and the tales of image wizards seem to be losing their impact, and politics is no longer being played out solely on this field. And that's good for all of us."
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/462849-walec-pis-vs-permanentne-zarzadzanie-kryzysowe-w-po
-- KACZYŃSKI AS GOD OF WAR - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON ONET: "And since PiS deeply probes social moods, this is not an accidental line. For the first time in years, Kaczyński is not transforming into a dove of peace before the parliamentary elections; he is himself – a god of war. This was clearly evident during the convention when he sharply attacked critics of PiS's government. 'The system proposed today by some, in fact, the rule of courts, has nothing to do with democracy. It is a system that best serves oligarchs,' he said, trying to justify PiS's war with the courts. Kaczyński also criticized the PO-PSL governments of 2007-2015, accusing them of 'constant manipulation of society.' 'This government turned social life into a spectacle that cost us hundreds of billions of zlotys, cost us Poles years lost, cost us various decisions made solely so that someone could become a 'big teddy bear',' he said."
-- PREPARATION FOR PRIME MINISTERSHIP? - STANKIEWICZ ON KACZYŃSKI: "This is not just about pampering Kaczyński's inflated ego. It is about building his image as the main benefactor, which may be preparation for the prime ministership after the elections – although not necessarily right at the beginning of the term. For several months, Kaczyński has been sending such signals to his inner circle."
-- CIVIC PLATFORM STILL SURPRISED THAT ELECTIONS ARE COMING - STANKIEWICZ: "However, this is not a carefully planned move, as evidenced by the fact that just a few weeks earlier, Kidawa was placed at the head of the Civic Platform's electoral list in Wrocław, although she has been associated with the capital city all her life. Now, as a candidate for prime minister, she has been hastily returned to Warsaw, and Schetyna has been dispatched from the capital's list to Wrocław. This is further proof that Civic Platform still seems surprised that four years have passed and elections are coming. They are acting reactively, without a broader plan."
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/andrzej-stankiewicz-kaczynski-bog-wojny-analiza/kv90sb4
-- WILL PiS'S PROMISES MOBILIZE ENTREPRENEURS? - PIOTR SKWIROWSKI IN RZ: "The question is whether new promises can win PiS additional voters. This is doubtful. Those who could be bought have already been bought with 500+ or the reduction of the retirement age. Adding more money might solidify their choice, but it could also make them lazy. However, PiS's new promises may mobilize the electorate of the other side. It is hard to assume that entrepreneurs will continue to calmly observe the burden of minimum wage increases, increased ZUS contributions for high employee salaries, or the PPK contribution."
https://www.rp.pl/Gospodarka/309089935-Kampania-wyborcza-Grozna-inflacja-obietnic.html
-- PARTIES BATTLE ON SOCIAL FIELDS - title in Rzeczpospolita.
-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON HOW PiS WILL FIND FUNDS FOR RETIREES AND VILLAGERS EVEN FROM UNDERGROUND - WRITES IN RZ: "Raising subsidies for farmers or the 13th pension show that PiS considers the countryside and seniors as its most important electoral base, and will find means even from under the ground to please these groups. On the other hand, the promise to almost double the minimum wage proves that paper will accept anything."
-- THEY MUST INTENSIFY TO COVER UP DEFICITS - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI AGAIN: "After four years, PiS must intensify its ideological rhetoric to cover up the deficits in its own policy."
-- PiS HAS FAILED TO HANDLE BASIC PUBLIC SERVICES REFORMS - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI AGAIN: "The Polish state is dilapidated in many places not because of an attack by post-communist forces and enemies of Christianity, but because of Jarosław Kaczyński's decisions. Queues in healthcare are growing not because post-communists are throwing sand in the gears of the 'good change,' but because PiS has failed to reform basic public services. They preferred to channel billions of zlotys into citizens' pockets rather than invest in state reform: increasing salaries for doctors, teachers, or administrators. The state is faltering because Kaczyński, instead of raising salaries, is lowering them for civil servants. Overcrowding in schools is the result of a poorly conceived education reform, not the revenge of post-communism."
-- IT'S MOST APPARENT WHEN WE READ ABOUT THE LATEST BETRAYALS AMONG POLITICIANS OF THE RULING PARTY - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IRONICALLY ON KACZYŃSKI'S WORDS: "The leader of the ruling party presented a vision of a state that sanctions the Christian order: the family as a lasting union of a woman and a man, protection of life, and Christian values, beyond which lies only nihilism. According to the party leader, these values are currently greatly weakened. One could bitterly joke that this is most evident when we read about betrayals among the politicians of the ruling party..."
https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-parlamentarne-2019/309089956-Szuldrzynski-Postepy-rewolucji-dobrej-zmiany.html
-- CIVIC PLATFORM PUT ON A MASK, PiS SHOWED A VISION - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: "Therefore, I mean something more fundamental, which concerns the very issue of reversing the anti-liberal turn in Polish politics. Civic Platform has donned another mask to be a bit more appealing. Kaczyński, Morawiecki, and Szydło showed a vision. This matter requires further explanation, and I will certainly return to it many times in the future. What the ruling party did during the convention was worth careful observation. United Right is trying to build a broadly understood political formation in a sense that seems new in the Polish context."
-- CONVENTION SPEECHES HAD A FORMATIVE FUNCTION - SAWCZUK AGAIN: "Of course, all this sounds a bit more serious than what could be seen on stage during the PiS convention, where smiles and screens dominated. But I am talking about these matters to draw attention to the fact that the steamroller of history is rolling, and each of Kaczyński's, Szydło's, and Morawiecki's speeches on Saturday had a certain formative function. Compared to this, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska's joy at discovering Civic Platform's program appears superficial and insufficient. After Friday's Civic Platform convention, one can still ask: what is Civic Platform forming?"
-- SUCH A STRONG NARRATIVE SHOULD HAVE BEEN CREATED BY THE OPPOSITION, BUT THE OPPOSITION DID NOT DO IT AND MUST COUNT ON KIDAWAS - SAWCZUK AGAIN: "A good change on the side opposite PiS will occur when the opposition asks how a liberal-democratic community, lasting in space and time, could function – and when it is capable of presenting in response a progressive narrative about the Third Polish Republic. Jarosław Kaczyński presented such a narrative during Saturday's convention. Mateusz Morawiecki contrasted the 'socialism' of the Left and the 'neoliberalism' of Civic Platform... with PiS's pragmatism! Such a strong narrative should have been developing on the opposition's side over the last four years, but the opposition did not do it, and now must count on Kidawa-Błońska."
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/09/09/czego-nas-uczy-jaroslaw-kaczynski-wybory-2019-konwencja-pis-po/
-- HANDOUTS AT THE PRICE OF PLUNDERING THE STATE - JACEK GĄDEK ON GAZETA.PL: "Family and money. These are the two most important motifs of the PiS convention in Lublin and the entire right-wing election campaign. Chairman Jarosław Kaczyński is portraying himself as a generous and likeable grandfather who will distribute even more than before. But firstly, not his own money, and secondly, at the price of further plundering state institutions, especially the judiciary."
-- PiS KNOWS HOW TO BUY VOTES - GĄDEK'S CONCLUSION: "The speeches of Jarosław Kaczyński, Beata Szydło, and Mateusz Morawiecki could be analyzed in detail. However, the simple message will reach the mass voter: we defend the traditional family, and we will give people more money. PiS must be credited with knowing how to buy votes."
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25168975,jaroslaw-kaczynski-chce-kupic-jeszcze-wiecej-glosow-za-nie.html
-- AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK ON THE COMBINATION OF TRIUMPHALISM AND FEAR - WRITES IN OKO: "At the same time, it was a rather awkward combination of triumphalism and fear. PiS tried to present itself as a power for which there is no alternative (because others are dangerous, immoral, or ridiculous) and a power that is threatened with not being in power."
-- PiS IS FIGHTING FOR THE COUNTRYSIDE, SMALL TOWNS, AND PENSIONERS - SZCZĘŚNIAK AGAIN: "Saturday's PiS convention showed that the party will fight mainly for residents of the countryside, smaller towns, and pensioners. Kaczyński is not confident of victory. He is showering promises as if from a sleeve, promising protection for the traditional family, scaring with nihilism, post-communism, and Tusk."
https://oko.press/konwencja-pis-kaczynski-duzo-straszy-i-duzo-obiecuje/
-- PiS IS NOT PURSUING A CONSERVATIVE AGENDA AT ALL - ŁUKASZ WARZECHA ON ONET: "So it seems that invoking values is mainly a rhetorical element, while when it comes to specifics, PiS is simply conservative and does not want changes in either direction. It is therefore difficult to consider that it is pursuing a conservative agenda here."
-- HUGO CHAVEZ WOULD SMILE AT PiS'S PROMISES - WARZECHA AGAIN: "Finally, the fourth thread, the social one – the most appalling. If Hugo Chavez, the architect of Venezuela's ruin due to his socialist experiments, were alive, he could certainly smile listening to Kaczyński's announcements. Despite calls from within United Right itself that enough is enough with handouts, enough with social programs, and that it's time to turn towards those who are supposed to work for this prosperity, it is clear that a different strategic decision has been made in the office at Nowogrodzka Street. PiS has not only not slowed down the bidding war on social promises but has even added fuel to the fire. One might get the impression that a truly mad engineer is at the controls of the locomotive pulling this train."
-- ENTREPRENEURS AS CASH COWS - WARZECHA AGAIN: "And to whom does Kaczyński ostentatiously show a lack of interest? Primarily to entrepreneurs, who are simply supposed to pay for the ruling party's promises, but also to all those for whom – thanks to their own work, education, and self-reliance – PiS's social gifts are just an add-on they can do without. This is a group that is fully aware that they are already cash cows for the rulers, and it will get even worse – even if some of the money eventually returns to them."
-- A PATH THAT ENDS IN AN ABYSS - WARZECHA'S CONCLUSION: "Kaczyński announced that PiS's goal is to build a welfare state. However, welfare states – whose durability is also questionable – built their capital and respect for those who accumulate it over decades. PiS wants to do it the shortcut way, pushing us down a path that will most likely end in an abyss. And then all that will be left is to take a step forward..."
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wybory-do-parlamentu-2019-warzecha-pis-chce-isc-do-dobrobytu-na-skroty-popychajac-nas/xyzj1dh
-- KACZYŃSKI OUTPLAYED THE OPPOSITION - ANDRZEJ GAJCY ON ONET: "Law and Justice is currently the only party that can read and satisfy the expectations of the largest group of Poles. In social terms, it is now more of a left-wing party that wants everyone to live better. Hence the strongest promise to raise the minimum wage to PLN 4,000 within just four years, and to PLN 3,000 within the next year. In practice, this will mean a huge wage increase that will be most felt by employers and entrepreneurs. Their employment costs will rise astronomically. But PiS, as it appears, is not concerned about this for now, because the goal is paramount: building a welfare state."
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wybory-parlamentarne-2019-konwencja-pis-kaczynski-ponownie-ogral-opozycje-opinia/fj8lsbv
-- ZDANOWSKA SUPPORTED HER DEPUTY FROM THE LEFT LIST - ŁÓDŹ GAZETA WYBORCZA: "For the 2019 parliamentary elections, the Mayor of Łódź, Hanna Zdanowska, officially supported her two deputy mayors - including Tomasz Trela, a candidate for the Democratic Left Alliance. This decision is controversial within her party, as votes cast for Trela could weaken the Civic Coalition's result."
http://lodz.wyborcza.pl/lodz/7,35136,25166416,wybory-parlamentarne-2019-po-zirytowana-postawa-zdanowskiej.html#S.main_topic-K.C-B.4-L.2.maly
-- THEY WILL EARN AS MUCH AS IS ON THE PAYSLIP - GRZEGORZ SCHETYNA IN CONVERSATION WITH BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: "Thanks to our project 'Lower taxes, higher wages,' people earning the minimum wage will earn as much net as they see on their payslip. But not at the expense of companies, but thanks to lower income tax and ZUS contributions, and a bonus for activity. Currently, this would be PLN 2,250, over PLN 600 more than they earned net so far. And Kaczyński throws out an easy but harmful slogan: raise the minimum wage to 3,000 gross in 2021 – from employers' pockets. The employer will pay PLN 3,618, but the employee will receive PLN 2,157. Meanwhile, in our proposal, it's almost PLN 100 more, and without an increase in costs for employers of almost PLN 1,000. And this is what Polish political debate looks like today: well-thought-out solutions, building Poland's development and the prosperity of Poles for generations, or irresponsible, chaotic throw-ins from a team for whom power is the only goal."
-- SCHETYNA ON THE QUESTION OF KIDAWAS'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDACY: "I cannot tell you today that Prime Minister Kidawa-Błońska will not want to run for president in 2020, because I don't know. I want and will do everything to win the parliamentary elections, to form a majority with other opposition parties, to prevent PiS from building a parliamentary majority. We have seen what happened over the last four years. So that it doesn't happen again – that is our most important goal."
https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-parlamentarne-2019/309089961-Schetyna-Kampania--zaczyna-sie-teraz.html
-- PiS CHANGES THE MEANING OF WORDS, THE "NEW SPEAK" OF THE GOOD CHANGE - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: "In his lecture on post-communism, the PiS leader recalled all the hackneyed truths, half-truths, and untruths about communists who enriched themselves after 1990, co-opting some people from the former 'Solidarity' camp. This was precisely the history of the financial backing of Porozumienie Centrum, Kaczyński's first party, and currently PiS. A former PZPR activist, a bank head, a president and co-owner of a privatized trading company, and a co-owner of a construction company from the party nomenklatura financed the economic backing of PC. Kaczyński presented this mechanism, but he failed to mention that it applies to his circle."
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25169500,pis-zmienia-znaczenie-slow.html
-- TAXES WILL RISE, EMPLOYEES FACE LAYOFFS - PIOTR MĄCZYŃSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: "There will be new taxes. The PiS government has great imagination when it comes to introducing them. However, taxes and contributions paid by individuals with relatively high incomes will increase most significantly."
http://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,25168376,program-pis-oznacza-wzrost-podatkow-zwolnienia-i-inflacje.html
-- KUCHCIŃSKI STILL LIVING AT BACIARELLEGO'S EXPENSE - IWONA KACPRZAK IN RZ: https://www.rp.pl/Prawo-i-Sprawiedliwosc/309089951-Marek-Kuchcinski-wciaz-mieszka-w-prezydenckim-palacyku.html
-- RZECZPOSPOLITA DAILY ON THE BACKGROUND OF TRUMP'S VISIT CANCELLATION (Korzycki, Osiecki, Parafianowicz): "After the Powidz point was removed from the agenda, President Andrzej Duda spoke with Trump twice by phone. The first time was on Wednesday, August 28. The head of the presidential cabinet, Krzysztof Szczerski, tells us that the conversation concerned the plans for the American head of state's visit, not the vice president's. ' (The conversation concerned – ed.) what, in our opinion, would be the most important message of this visit. Whether it was defense, energy, or visa issues,' Krzysztof Szczerski tells Rzeczpospolita Daily. He assures that there were no suggestions, let alone a direct communication, that the visit might not happen. Such information appeared during the second phone call. On Friday, around 9 PM. 'Then President Trump advised that due to the hurricane, he had to postpone the visit and would inform about it at a press conference in an hour. He also said he was calling because he cares about good personal relations with President Duda,' emphasizes Szczerski. After this conversation, the minister called the US Ambassador to Poland, Georgette Mosbacher, to ask if she already knew about the visit's cancellation. According to one of our interlocutors, the head of the mission was reportedly surprised. 'Oh my God!' That's roughly how she commented,' he says."
https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/swiat/artykuly/607171,dyplomacja-usa-trump-wizyta-polska.html
-- TUSK WAS INFORMED ABOUT THE WARSAW REPRIVE PROCEDURE BY THE COMMISSIONER FOR HUMAN RIGHTS - KALITA OBTAINED A LETTER FROM IRENA LIPOWICZ: "The Verification Commission possesses correspondence from which it appears that former Prime Minister Donald Tusk was informed about the shocking privatization practices in Warsaw as early as October 2012! The multi-page letter arrived at his chancellery directly from the Office of the Commissioner for Human Rights! What did the PO-PSL government do with the information provided by Irena Lipowicz? It forwarded it to the Ministry of State Treasury, where the letter was buried in the deepest drawer!"
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/462705-tusk-mogl-wiedziec-o-przekretach-reprywatyzacji-juz-w-2012
-- THERMAL MODERNIZATION WILL BE A TAX RETURN HIT - PIOTR WOŹNY IN CONVERSATION WITH TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN DGP: "Cooperation is picking up, thanks to which more applications will come in. Today, there are three streams through which investments in thermal modernization can take place. The first is applications submitted to the Provincial Environmental Protection Funds and municipalities. The second is the banking sector, which we are inviting to cooperate and which could offer products to help people finance thermal modernization. The third stream is the tax relief. In the latter case, only in April 2020 will we see the effects of the tax relief, but I expect it to be a hit in this year's tax returns."
-- BY 2028 WE WILL DEAL WITH SMOG - WOŹNY AGAIN IN DGP: "If we consistently continue this direction of action, we can finally deal with smog by 2028."
-- WOŹNY ON THE BANKING SECTOR, WHICH CAN DRIVE THERMAL MODERNIZATION: "The example of submitting applications for 500+ and 300+ proves that Poles have fallen in love with e-banking as a tool for submitting these applications to the administration. I want to invite banks to make standardized application forms for the 'Clean Air' program available to their clients in their systems. This application would then be sent for consideration by state officials. The second proposed task for banks is to create banking products that provide bridging finance for household thermal modernization investments. 'Clean Air' is a refund-based program. This means that Kowalski, wanting to carry out thermal modernization, must first have an amount of PLN 53,000 on average. If a family earns, for example, PLN 80,000 annually, and the income per family member is higher than PLN 1,600, they will receive approximately PLN 9,500 in subsidies from 'Clean Air.' In addition, they can then deduct PLN 7-8,000 as tax relief on their personal income tax. So, they will receive public support of about 40% of the investment cost, but they must have funds available to carry out this investment. And here I see a role for banks, to provide people with bridging finance, offering financial products tailored to this program."
-- WOŹNY PRAISES KOWALCZYK: "I am a strong advocate of team efforts. The Prime Minister declared in his exposé that fighting smog will be one of the most important tasks of his administration, and Minister Kowalczyk and I are implementing this commitment hand in hand."
https://serwisy.gazetaprawna.pl/ekologia/artykuly/1429212,piotr-wozny-smog-w-polsce.html
-- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON THE NEED FOR THE RIGHT TO OPEN UP TO ECOLOGY: "This needs to change. And given the embarrassment of professional 'eco-activists,' the right should strongly take up the task of nature protection. Without left-wing ideology, without madness, but with Christian love for our native nature and people. The field appears to be abandoned. This is a necessity, but also a great opportunity to achieve a significant social shift, attracting those circles that have come to believe that caring for the planet is exclusively the domain of the left. We have just learned that this is not true, that the game is about other goals."
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/462944-prawica-powinna-mocno-podjac-zadanie-ochrony-przyrody
-- BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Smirnow turns 81, Jacek Socha.
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