state of play: 09/06/2019
POLITICAL GAMEPLAY: Kamiński Launches First Campaign Spot, Olejnik Notes GS is a Liability Despite Organizational Talent, Rogojsz on Relief in PO After Kidawa's Nomination, Nizinkiewicz Calls for Kidawa to Lead PO, Pereira on GS's December Plans
-- MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI WITH HIS FIRST INDIVIDUAL CAMPAIGN SPOT: “– I am running for the Senate as a candidate of a united opposition, united but diverse, just as Poles are diverse, yet united by a vision of a normal country,” says Michał Kamiński in his first official campaign spot of this election. 300POLITYKA publishes it first.”
https://300polityka.pl/news/2019/09/06/w-pierwszym-indywidualnym-spocie-tej-kampanii-michal-kaminski-uderza-w-radziwilla-i-mowi-o-wlasnej-kretej-politycznej-drodze-zona-kaminskiego-w-spocie-michal-powiedzial-jesli-nie-zmienie-siebie-n/
-- TOMASZ ZIMOCH ALSO DIDN'T KNOW SCHETYNA'S "SIX", SCHETYNA PROPOSES PRIMARIES FOR THE OPPOSITION'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/09/06/
-- THE REPEATABILITY OF PO AND PIS IS MADNESS - PIOTR WITWICKI: “The Civic Platform argued that one shouldn't govern from the back seat. Now it's promoting this model itself. PiS called last year's 'caravan of shame' a waste of taxpayer money. Back then, posters with government awards travelled across Poland, and now PiS will travel with its negative message. Car trailers have been replaced by 'tankers of shame,' intended to remind people of the sins of the PO-PSL coalition. This mutual copying of ideas has been going on for years. The repeatability is madness. Tuskobuses compete with Szydłobuses, conventions blend into one another, and electoral slogans are accompanied by an unbearable aura of plagiarism. Mateusz Morawiecki receives the Man of the Year award in Krynica, just as Donald Tusk or Bronisław Komorowski once did.”
-- MORE IMPORTANT THAN WHAT WAS IN KRYNICA WAS WHAT WAS ON THE ROAD - WITWICKI CONTINUES: “All of this is such a constant electoral ritual. Politics has already accustomed us to this campaign symmetry. Things get most interesting when differences emerge. More important than the 'tanker of shame' reaching Krynica and who became Man of the Year is what happened on the road. The entire route to the Economic Forum was densely covered with posters of PiS politicians. Even a not-so-attentive observer, passing through Małopolska or Świętokrzyskie, can memorize half of the ruling party's list.”
-- A BORING CAMPAIGN WORKS AGAINST THE OPPOSITION, PIS CAN SLEEP PEACEFULLY, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY'VE ALREADY POSTERED THE ENTIRE VICINITY - WITWICKI'S CONCLUSION: “For now, the campaign is boring. Nervous, but devoid of fireworks. This works against the opposition, which needs to convince people that we are dealing with an extraordinary situation and build emotions around it. When both sides have no new campaign ideas, the one in power can sleep more peacefully. Especially when they've already plastered the entire neighborhood.”
https://opinie.wp.pl/piotr-witwicki-cysterny-wyborczego-symetryzmu-opinia-6421249693530241a
-- ARRESTS AND PEGASUS DAMAGE PIIS'S NARRATIVE THAT THE THREAT TO DEMOCRACY IS OPPOSITION HYSTERIA - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Arrests by the Central Anticorruption Bureau (CBA), the purchase of the spy tool Pegasus, or the Piebiak scandal damage PiS's narrative that the threat to democracy is opposition hysteria. In this regard, recent weeks have been fatal for PiS. The latest example: on Wednesday, PiS invites journalists to a press conference concerning the fuel scandal during the PO-PSL government. That morning, the CBA arrests the former CEO of Orlen from the Platform era and several other former employees of the fuel giant to add charges. Coincidence? Even if so, it's fatal for PiS, as it recalls the years 2005-2007, when such moves led to a spectacular defeat by PO. This atmosphere is further thickened by the discussion about the Pegasus super-program, allowing for the surveillance of any smartphone, which Polish services allegedly bought for millions of zlotys. The scandal with the hate group within the Ministry of Justice had a similar effect – giving the opposition an argument that the current authorities will stop at nothing to attack those who criticize their actions. Politicians of the ruling party continuously argue that the polls are very favorable to them, that support has not dropped after any of the scandals. What's more, surveys show that the United Right voters are mobilized.”
https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-parlamentarne-2019/190909571-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Zamordystyczne-sklonnosci-PiS.html
-- SCHETYNA HAD NOTHING TO LOOK FOR IN WARSAW - MONIKA OLEJNIK IN GW: “It's good that Grzegorz Schetyna came to his senses and decided to give up the top spot in Warsaw and stay in Wrocław. He truly had nothing to look for in Warsaw, and he should have realized long ago that despite his organizational talent, he is a visual liability for the party. Better late than never. Does Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska have charisma? I don't know. Can she rally crowds? I don't know. I know she is a cultured, non-aggressive person.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25161899,gdzie-schetyna-nie-moze-tam-kidawe-blonska-posle.html
-- SCHETYNA IS STEPPING INTO PIIS'S SHOES - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Today, PO is stepping into PiS's shoes. Grzegorz Schetyna has found his Beata Szydło. For the presidential elections, the PO leader will be looking for his Andrzej Duda. The strategy of shadow politics brought PiS success, so Schetyna is hoping to repeat Kaczyński's success.”
-- KIDAWA SHOULD BECOME THE HEAD OF PO - NIZINKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “If the party takes its candidate and its voters seriously, Kidawa-Błońska should be elected as the new leader. Schetyna said that a situation where a prime minister who is not the party leader ends up with an Eastern model, and today Morawiecki, like Szydło before him, goes to Nowogrodzka to receive orders from his boss. Would Prime Minister Kidawa-Błońska take orders from the PO chairman on Wiejska Street? Schetyna's and the entire party's credibility test will be handing over leadership in PO to Kidawa-Błońska.”
https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/309059876-Kidawa-Blonska--na-szefowa-Platformy.html
-- SAMUEL PEREIRA ON COPYING PIIS: “If someone who for the past few years has offered only war, and is plummeting in credibility and trust rankings – suddenly, at the eleventh hour, pulls an unknown MP out of a hat with the slogan 'Poland without hate,' it's hard to expect them to convince even their own voters. Decisions of this type are not made overnight, but six weeks before the elections. If for years we've constantly heard from anti-PiS politicians that handing over the prime minister's post to Beata Szydło, and later to Mateusz Morawiecki, is proof of the leader's cowardice, how does Schetyna intend to convince Poles in 40 days that such a move on his part is proof of his and the entire camp's credibility? While wondering if copying Chairman Kaczyński will bring Chairman Schetyna success, it's worth remembering how it was with Beata Szydło.”
-- SCHETYNA IS THINKING ABOUT DECEMBER AND APPOINTING BARONS - PEREIRA CONTINUES: “Let's not kid ourselves. Grzegorz Schetyna is a seasoned political player, and his goal today is not credibility or winning the elections. He's not thinking about October, but about December, when elections for the next term of the PO chairman are planned. It is for this reason that he parted ways with PSL and SLD, which limited the number of potential mandates for party barons. Also, due to his desire to remain in power within the party, Schetyna began to 'grill' Donald Tusk about the gambling scandal, Amber Gold, tax increases, pension age increases (which he called a 'mistake'), or the seizure of funds from the OFE. For the same reason, he arranged the party electoral lists the way he did. What's left for him? To defend himself against the inevitable – being the face of electoral defeat. Shortly before the elections, he realized that he might be helped by fielding a popular MP within the party, whom after the elections he will assign an unpleasant task – to explain the loss. Sunday, October 13th will come, the campaign dust will settle, and on Monday we will hear that Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska did her part, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska can leave.”
https://www.tvp.info/44216730/plan-minimum-przegrac-wybory-utrzymac-wladze-w-po-dlaczego-schetyna-nie-bedzie-drugim-kaczynskim
-- ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ IN GAZETA.PL DESCRIBES THE RELIEF IN THE CIVIC PLATFORM: “A Civic Coalition campaign staffer says: – This is an interesting solution. It will certainly help us more than harm. Besides, the first effect is already there – there's great relief in the structures, and hope has been revived in the party. The biggest problem with 'Schet' was that even our electorate reacted allergically to him. At all meetings 'in the field,' people talked about it – notes our interlocutor from the Civic Coalition staff. If I'm to be honest, she's one of the few people from this political 'first league' who didn't create a wall when we met – says a young generation KO politician who knows the Coalition's new candidate for prime minister.”
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25162421,w-platformie-ulga-po-nominacji-kidawy-blonskiej-na-grzegorza.html
-- PROF. DUDEK ON REDUCING THE COSTS OF CATASTROPHE - HE SAID ON RMF WITH MARCIN ZABORSKI: "Grzegorz Schetyna made a move that, as I understand it, is intended to reduce the costs of the looming catastrophe he faces – this is how Prof. Antoni Dudek, a political scientist from Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University in Warsaw, assessed the Civic Coalition's nomination of Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska for prime minister. 'Please remember that the day after October 13th, if the Platform doesn't win the elections, and nothing indicates that at the moment, Schetyna will come out and say, listen, we lost, but we have another chance ahead of us – the presidential elections. (...) Grzegorz Schetyna is escaping a head-on collision with the Warsaw electorate and is testing the Platform's probable candidate in the presidential elections.'”
https://www.rmf24.pl/tylko-w-rmf24/popoludniowa-rozmowa/news-prof-dudek-o-schetynie-obniza-koszty-nadciagajacej-katastrof,nId,3187174
-- PO IS UNABLE TO RISE, WHILE THE LEFT GAINS - RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK ON TELEWIZJA WPOLSCE.PL: “In a situation of stable PiS ratings, the collapse of the European coalition and the d'Hondt method create a completely new reality, somewhat reminiscent of the first round of the presidential elections. A situation where we know our candidate won't win, we know everything will be decided in the second round, so in the first round, we'll vote more with our heart than with cold political calculation. And I think this might be one of the factors that PO is unable to rise, while the Left is gaining a bit. However, we don't know how the actual election campaign will unfold in September.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/462567-prof-chwedoruk-o-opozycji-to-oddanie-meczu-walkowerem
-- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON MARIUSZ KAMIŃSKI'S EXPANSION: “The not very flashy, reclusive Kamiński is quietly but systematically expanding his influence. The goal is one: to fulfill the dream of creating a more or less formal Ministry of National Security, the most powerful institution in the country. To this end, the president of the Supreme Audit Office (NIK) has become Marian Banaś, the Minister of Finance friendly with Kamiński, which further increases the minister's security apparatus combo.”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/newsletter-onetu-andrzej-stankiewicz-koniec-fiesty-w-policji/hn54zdg
-- ONET ON THE HATE CAMPAIGN AFFAIR IN THE MILITARY GENDARME: “A network of fake Twitter accounts, linked to the press spokesman and high-ranking officers of the Military Gendarmerie, conducted a massive hate campaign against victims of mobbing and harassment in this institution. The haters revealed, among other things, sensitive medical data and classified information from ongoing investigations. Two prosecutor's offices and the Commissioner for Human Rights are dealing with the matter.”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/zandarmeria-wojskowa-prowadzila-zmasowany-hejt-przeciwko-ofiarom-molestowania/5ckp409
-- KO DECIDED THAT ACCELERATION IS NEEDED TO EARN FOR TRANSFERS - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “PiS's economic and social program boils down to distributing money, previously taken from taxpayers, to various voter groups. The Civic Coalition decided that in order to distribute, economic growth must be accelerated, thereby creating greater wealth to share.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,155287,25162500,platforma-stawia-na-wzrost-ale-zostawi-plusy-pis-u.html
-- PSL DISTANCES ITSELF FROM MIEDLAR - COINCIDENTAL MEETING, WKK DIDN'T KNOW WHO HE WAS: “PSL press spokesman Jakub Stefaniak refutes the accusations by writing on his Twitter account that Kosiniak-Kamysz did not recognize Międlar: I deny it! He did not meet with Międlar; Międlar managed to get into a meeting with voters, took advantage of the press conference moment, and recorded a conversation, claiming to be a journalist. WKK, after a whole day of meetings, did not recognize him. We distance ourselves from this man's activities!”
https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/606957,burza-szef-psl-byly-ksiadz-jacek-miedlar-spotkanie.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Maciej Zięba, Elżbieta Polak.
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