state of play: 08/28/2019

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: GW Reports PiS Internal Poll at 37%, Party Insiders Deny Survey, Karnowski: Swift Resignations Convince the Public They Influence Rulers

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-- PIS REGISTERS MORE LISTS AND ALREADY HAS ONE MILLION SIGNATURES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/08/28/ -- AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW ON THE DROP TO 37% IN PIS INTERNAL POLL: “PiS commissioned its own poll after the Piebiak affair was revealed, to compare it with publicly available polls, such as Kantar for TVN. The ruling party's ratings, according to the PiS survey, have dropped by several percentage points – to 37%. (Kantar indicated 39% support – a drop of 5 percentage points). And not so long ago, PiS was soaring to almost 45%.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25125804,wojna-miedzy-ziobra-a-premierem.html -- 300POLITYKA SPOKE WITH TWO SENIOR PIS CAMPAIGN STAFFERS WHO, INDEPENDENTLY OF EACH OTHER, DENIED THE EXISTENCE OF SUCH A POLL. -- PIS 41.5%, KO 27%, LEWICA 12%, PSL 7% - SURVEY FOR ONET, BUT IT'S IBRIS: “If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, Law and Justice would be the clear winner with 41.5% of the vote. Civic Coalition would take second place with 26.6% support among respondents. The podium is closed by Lewica - SLD, Wiosna, Razem, with 12.2% of respondents saying they would vote for it. Representatives of the Polish People's Party - Koalicja Polska (PSL + Kukiz'15) would also find themselves in the Sejm with 7.2% of the vote. Confederation, with 4.7% of respondents' support, fell below the 5% electoral threshold in the IBRiS poll.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wybory-parlamentarne-2019-sondaz-ibris-dla-onetu/regwxdg -- SWIFT RESIGNATIONS ARE THE SOURCE OF SUPPORT FOR THE RULING CAMP - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “The quick reaction of the PiS leadership has paid off again – for the how manyeth time? It can even be argued that such resignations in situations of public outrage are one of the sources of support for the ruling camp; they convince the public that they have influence over the actions of the rulers. They also effectively undermine the opposition's narratives about a supposedly growing dictatorship.” -- KARNOWSKI ON THE SOCIAL RIGHT OF VETO: “Poles (not to be confused with the media) believe that since the authorities listen to social expectations, it means it's not some form of tyranny. They feel that if something is very important to them, the authorities will not do it, they will even back down from well-advanced projects. This can be called their own 'social right of veto,' which creates a sense of security and immunizes them against the opposition's blustering.” -- KARNOWSKI ON BREAKING THROUGH THE SHOUTING: “There is only one conclusion: the ruling camp must speak its own truth at all costs. It cannot allow itself to be drawn into a battle of scandals and affairs. No, it must speak to Poles about its successes, plans, about matters close to people's hearts. If it speaks loudly and clearly enough (but also calmly) to break through the shouting, it will maintain power.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/461134-czy-sprawa-piebiaka-pogrzebie-opozycje-znow-siedza-w-okopie -- MAREK BEYLIN IN GW DEFENDS UJAZDOWSKI: “Kazimierz M. Ujazdowski's candidacy for the Senate in Warsaw has angered some left-wing circles. 'He's like PiS,' 'it's an insult to Varsovians' – there are many such and similar voices. Paweł Kasprzak from Obywatele RP, known for organizing protests against PiS, is also considering running for the Senate in this 'competitive' race. Ujazdowski's conservatism also bothers me, but I see reasons to vote for him. And I encourage Kasprzak to withdraw from this race.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25125804,uwiera-mnie-konserwatyzm-ujazdowskiego-ale-mam-powody-by-na.html -- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ ON JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S RESPONSIBILITY: “If Ziobro did not know what was happening in his ministry, he should have been dismissed quickly, as it would mean he is unfit for his position. The explanation we hear today, that the minister was unaware of what one of his most important deputies was doing, is as ridiculous as it is compromising for a politician who took on the burden of implementing the most profound changes in the judiciary after 1989. But the question of political responsibility cannot bypass Ziobro's patron, Jarosław Kaczyński. Anyone who knows a little about politics knows that not only the direction of changes, but also individual paragraphs of judicial laws were consulted at Nowogrodzka. Ziobro was not fighting the judges of the Constitutional Tribunal or later the Supreme Court in his private war.” -- AN OPPOSITION MEMBER, ZABŁOCKI, LEFT THE SUPREME COURT, WHILE THE REFORM WAS MASTERMINDED BY PIOTROWICZ AND PRZYŁĘBSKA - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “Prime Minister Morawiecki wanted to cleanse Polish courts of judges who served during communism. As a result, Judge Stanisław Zabłocki, who showed honorable conduct during communism and delivered a moving speech at the rehabilitation trial of Captain Pilecki after its fall, recently left the Supreme Court. The PiS judicial reforms, on the other hand, are being championed by communist prosecutor Stanisław Piotrowicz or members of communist youth organizations, such as Julia Przyłębska or Krystyna Pawłowicz.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/190829387-Szuldrzynski-Pytania-do-prezesa-PiS-Jaroslawa-Kaczynskiego-po-aferze-w-resorcie-Ziobry.html -- WHAT BELARUS? HYSTERICAL HALF-WITTS - LUDWIK DORN IN CONVERSATION WITH AGNIESZKA KUBLIK: “So, it's a bunch of foolish drunkards with the mentality of teenagers. What Belarus, Putin, Lukashenko? Just amateurs, politically hysterical half-wits.” -- AFTER THE AFFAIR, AN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY IS LESS LIKELY - DORN CONTINUES: “Would PiS have had an absolute majority without this affair? It wasn't improbable; rather, more probable than not. It depended on many factors, such as whether Konfederacja and PSL would cross the 5% threshold. After this affair, it's still not improbable, but it is much less probable than before, and by a lot. However, this is no longer about the separation of powers, the rule of law, the constitution. This is about the fact that at the top of power sit drunkards, and what's more, idiots, because they leave traces behind. And this was the elite of the 'good change,' the elite of the elite even, because judges are the elite of social elites. And this elite of elites invents 'get out' notes for the First President of the Supreme Court?!” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25127384,dorn-kaczynski-bedzie-milczal-bo-wie-ze-cokolwiek-powie-moze.html -- A SHEPHERD OF SHEEP GRAZING ON ONE SIDE OF THE FIELD - TOMASZ KRZYŻAK IN RZ ON ABP JĘDRASZEWSKI: “Today, four years later – again, just before parliamentary elections – that plague has turned into a 'rainbow' in the hierarchy's mouth. And it's truly difficult not to see this within the context of PiS's political actions, for whom the LGBT issue is one of the campaign's leading themes. If we add the fact that Jarosław Kaczyński thanked the hierarch for his stance and for calling things by their name, and the interested party himself – in the midst of the election campaign – in the pages of the weekly 'Sieci,' which is close to the ruling camp, thanked the PiS leader for defending the institutions of marriage and family, the picture becomes complete. It turns out that Archbishop Jędraszewski is a shepherd, but only of sheep grazing on one side of the pasture.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/190829379-Tomasz-Krzyzak-Hierarcha-na-pierwszej-linii.html -- PROPAGANDA BUDGET - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “The government is obliged to submit the draft budget bill by the end of September. This will leave two weeks until the elections, and the draft of a 'balanced budget' will undoubtedly become a tool of the PiS propaganda machine. The government that takes office after the elections, regardless of whether it is formed by PiS or the opposition, will introduce amendments to the budget draft that will strip it of its propaganda embellishments and adapt it to reality.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,25127036,budzet-to-zbyt-powazna-sprawa-by-go-uzywac-jako-narzedzie-propagandy.html -- MIRACLE OVER THE DEFICIT - RZ'S LEAD STORY: “This is good news for Poles because it means the government will stop living on credit and burdening future generations. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki emphasized at a press conference after the government meeting that the general government debt will decrease by as much as 1.5% of GDP in 2020 compared to 2019. The Prime Minister also spoke of satisfaction with the government's budget plans. Because although for the last 30 years a deficit-free budget was a dream of liberal finance ministers and economists, no one has managed such a feat so far.” -- JANUSZ JANKOWIAK TELLS RZ ABOUT A SUPER HOAX: “A deficit-free budget would be possible on the condition that there is no 13th pension next year, and the ZUS contribution limit is abolished – analyzes Janusz Jankowiak, chief economist of the Polish Business Council. – Otherwise, even with one-time revenues and after accounting for various 'soft' provisions on revenue growth, the presentation of a balanced budget would be not just a hoax, but a super hoax.” https://www.rp.pl/Budzet-i-Podatki/308279916-Cud-nad-deficytem.html -- KRZYSZTOF KILIAN POSTULATES CONSOLIDATION OF POLISH ENERGY SECTOR - as written in RZ: “The foundation of Polish energy is four vertically integrated concerns: PGE, Tauron, Enea, and Energa. Their capitalization in June 2019 ranged between PLN 25 and 30 billion. This is between one-third and one-quarter of their value compared to when they entered the stock exchange. For comparison, the Czech CEZ is valued at nearly PLN 48 billion. Polish companies dependent on coal are unable to move beyond technologies and solutions related to it. The Polish energy market, organized in this way, is incapable of undertaking a large joint investment, such as building a nuclear power plant. This leads to the conclusion that the Polish energy market requires transformation and a new organizational order with a new business model.” https://www.rp.pl/Opinie/308279907-Energetyka--wymaga-konsolidacji.html -- NO DEFICIT, BUT ONLY FOR A WHILE - DGP. -- BIRTHDAYS: Julia Szyndzielorz, Piotr Skolimowski.

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