state of play: 08/22/2019

GAME STATE: Karnowski: Millions from unknown sources were spent on troll farms against Jaki in Warsaw; DGP: The affair could disrupt the fragile balance of power in the United Right

Łukasz Mężyk

-- POLICE FOUND THE BODY OF PIOTR WOŹNIAK-STARAK: “Unofficially, information suggests that hairs of a man were found in the propeller of the discovered boat. This could confirm the words of one of the boaters, who assumed that the helmsman was sailing without a kill switch, which cuts the engine if the helmsman falls off the wheel. In such cases, the boat often circles on its own and becomes dangerous for the crew in the water, who risk being caught by the propeller”. http://olsztyn.wyborcza.pl/olsztyn/7,48726,25109433,wozniak-starak-pletwonurkowie-znalezli-cialo-jeziorze-kisajno.html -- LUBNAUER ON PSL'S FEARS OF CALLING THE SENATE AGREEMENT A PACT, BUDKA ON ZIOBRO'S EXPLANATIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/08/22/ -- TRUMP HAS ONLY POLAND LEFT - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: “By canceling his visit to Denmark, the US President alienates one of the last friendly countries towards him in Europe”. https://www.rp.pl/Prezydent--USA/308219912-Trumpowi-zostaje-juz-tylko-Polska.html -- PMM ASKED BY SE ABOUT THE NEW PRIME MINISTER AFTER THE ELECTION: “I am against dividing the spoils before they are won. We all need to be humble; this is not the time to speculate about a new government. Our biggest challenge is ahead of us – to renew the mandate of trust from Poles that we received four years ago. This is the priority, and that is what we are concentrating on”. https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/premier-obiecuje-pieniadze-emerytom-13-tka-co-roku-wyzsza-waloryzacja-tylko-u-nas-aa-NpB6-QtrU-UJR3.html -- MORAWIECKI'S PEOPLE FIGHTING FOR SEJM SEATS - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's people have been pushed to distant spots on the PiS lists. They will have to fight hard in the campaign to even dream of parliamentary seats, as they are placed at numbers like 6, 12, 18, or 20”. -- PMM'S ASSISTANT AT 20TH IN KIELCE: “Bartłomiej Orzeł, one of the prime minister's assistants, is only number 20 in Kielce. This is a very distant position, but in a "mandate-winning" constituency. Today, PiS has as many as nine out of 16 deputies in Kielce, but now it hopes to hit the jackpot”. -- JABŁOŃSKI IN KATOWICE: “Paweł Jabłoński from the Department of International Project Coordination of the Chancellery of the Prime Minister holds a distant, but still significantly better, position – number 10 in Katowice. This is a constituency where Mateusz Morawiecki is the "locomotive"”. -- GĄDEK ON THE CHEŁM MAYOR'S MOTHER ON THE LIST: “On the lists, we also find other figures associated with the prime minister. For example, Anna Dąbrowska-Banaszek. She is last on the PiS list in Chełm. Privately, she is the mother of the mayor of Chełm, who is close to both Gowin and Morawiecki, and advised him in the Chancellery of the Prime Minister. Due to these family ties, she can be considered part of the prime minister's team”. http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25106395,mlode-wilki-morawieckiego-zepchniete-na-listach-teraz-musza.html -- WHERE IS THIS FARM OF TROLLS, BECAUSE SO FAR ONLY ONE INTERNET USER IN A STRANGE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE DEPUTY MINISTER OF JUSTICE HAS BEEN SHOWN? - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “There is no evidence for any of these claims today. One internet user is not a farm; one deputy minister and one judge contacting her do not constitute an organized operation. Even a group on the WhatsApp messenger, using quite vulgar language, does not meet these criteria. There is not even the slightest hint that Ziobro was behind it. The repeated fragment about a "boss" who is supposed to be pleased with some TV program also does not prove this. This consciously imposed extreme exaggeration in the description of the event, in my eyes, deprives this campaign of credibility”. -- KARNOWSKI ON THE INTERNAL RIVALRY AMONG JUDGES: “The whole story increasingly clearly appears to be an internal conflict within a narrow circle of judges, with elements of provocation at a certain point, and from the beginning, perhaps with a large dose of family troubles, emotions, and madness. At its center are: Ms. Emilia, whose existence I was unaware of, and the already former deputy minister-judge Łukasz Piebiak, whom I barely knew. What allegedly happened along this line must be assessed critically, as well as her contacts with another (also former) employee of the Ministry of Justice. This is the picture that emerges from the media descriptions, in any case”. -- KARNOWSKI ASKS ABOUT THE FINANCING OF TROLL FARMS IN THE WARSAW CAMPAIGN: “And if someone is really looking for troll farms, let them look in the local government campaign in the capital. Millions were spent then, against Patryk Jaki, from unknown sources”. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/460341-czas-zapytac-gdzie-ta-farma-trolli-bo-pokazano-jednego -- THE PIEBIAK AFFAIR MAY DISRUPT THE FRAGILE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE UNITED RIGHT - Tomasz Żółciak, Małgorzata Kryszkiewicz in DGP: “The affair surrounding the coordinated hate campaign in the Ministry of Justice is widening its scope. According to our interviewees, the situation could escalate into a dirty war not only between PiS and the opposition but also within the ruling camp. -- DGP ON BULLDOG WARS ON THE RIGHT: “Ziobro will have to be defended as a coalition partner. And the longer this lasts, the greater the chance that activists who are not necessarily comfortable with this will start to become active. More compromising material and denunciations will surface – claims our source. He reminds that the first PiS government was largely undermined by the conflict between Mariusz Kamiński (current Minister of Interior and Administration) and Zbigniew Ziobro. – President Kaczyński, by deciding on early elections in 2007, was aiming for a sure victory. But the bulldog wars began. Within a few weeks, the right squandered its previous support and lost miserably – he recalls”. – THE PIS BRAND IS IMPORTANT - POLITICIAN QUOTED IN DGP: “There is determination to win the elections, not to defend someone. People voting for PiS will not pay attention to whether this or that politician is on the lists. The "PiS" brand is important. We are in a different situation than before. We are in power, and instead of fighting for votes, we have to answer for some Mr. Piebiak. It's good that there are resignations; a lack of reaction from the ruling party would have threatened a scenario similar to Civic Platform's in 2015. Today, we can lose, if not to the opposition, then at best to ourselves – a prominent ruling party politician tells us”. https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/605702,kim-jest-emilia-afera-piebiaka-hejt-prawica-pis.html -- PIEBIAK AND IWANIEC ARE NOT BLACK SHEEP BUT PART OF THE SYSTEM - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Piebiak and Iwaniec are not black sheep. The affair revealed by Onet is not the first known case of organized persecution of judges under the current government. Let us recall that in 2017, the Polish National Foundation conducted a nationwide billboard campaign that aimed to discredit judges in the eyes of public opinion”. -- THE LIST OF IRREGULARITIES IN THE RULING PARTY GROWS EVERY WEEK - SAWCZUK CONTINUES: “The list of irregularities and violations of the law in the actions of the ruling party is growing practically every week. In this context, the affair in the Ministry of Justice appears to be an element of the system rather than a random pathology. The approval for the construction of this system depends on Jarosław Kaczyński, who bears ultimate responsibility for its operation”. https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/08/21/afera-ministerstwo-sprawiedliwosci-komentarz/ -- IF NECESSARY - ZIOBRO WILL FALL - EWA SIEDLECKA IN OKO: “If necessary – Minister Ziobro will also fall – for incompetence in supervising his subordinates, because, for now, there is no evidence that he knew about everything. He will fall, just as Marshal Kuchciński fell (nomen omen for flying). Like Kuchciński and Piebiak, he will issue a statement that it is for the good of the cause. And he will come out as a sacrificial victim for the good of the 'good change.' In the PiS state, it is 'obvious that what happens to whom is decided not by law, but by the will of the rulers. Law – secondarily, if the rulers are not interested in a specific matter. The law, which should protect people from abuses of power, serves the power, not the people. A caste state has been created, where one of the privileges distributed by the authorities is protection from the law”. https://oko.press/siedlecka-o-aferze-piebiaka/ -- ON THE FRONT PAGE OF RZ, BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA AND TOMASZ PIETRYGA ON POLITICAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE TROLLING OF JUDGES: “This is a dangerous precedent that casts a serious shadow over the credibility of the authorities. If it is confirmed that the activity of the group operating in the Ministry of Justice was inspired or authorized by members of the government or leaders of the ruling party, the politicians responsible for it would lose all moral legitimacy to participate in the public sphere of a democratic state”. -- ONLY KACZYŃSKI CAN CONTROL THE CHAOS IN THE JUDICIARY CAUSED BY PIS - CONCLUSION OF THE RZ AUTHORS: “But the political responsibility for the problem, of which the current affair is an illustration, does not end with Minister Zbigniew Ziobro or even Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. It was Jarosław Kaczyński who entered into a dispute with the judges, and made the slogan of reforming the judiciary one of his main political promises. Only he can control the chaos, which brings Poland more losses than gains. If the leaders of PiS do not take up this challenge, they may lose the moral legitimacy to govern in a democratic country”. https://www.rp.pl/artykul/1407707-Nie-koniec--ale-poczatek.html -- WILL ZIOBRO NO LONGER BE MINISTER OF JUSTICE AFTER THE ELECTIONS? - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “However, around Nowogrodzka Street, one can already hear that the coalition arrangement may change slightly after the elections. Jarosław Gowin has better prospects, who skillfully builds a modernizing-conservative wing and does not create an empire or a super-ministry within the United Right, moreover, using tools that the older generation does not understand. As a traitor from the past, Ziobro will not get another chance and – as one hears – even if he holds the position until the elections to minimize losses, he will not be the Minister of Justice thereafter. After all, there are many in PiS who carry the torch of justice in their backpacks”. https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/308219920-Dabrowska-Ziobro-musi-zbudowac-legende.html -- ZIOBRO'S CASTE INCITES AGAINST JUDGES - lead article in GW. -- ZIOBRO FOR RESIGNATION - Jarosław Kurski in GW. -- UNTOUCHABLE ZIOBRO CHECKMATES THE PRESIDENT - Roman Imielski in GW: "This would also be a risky move, as Ziobro holds key decisions regarding investigations, for example, into the construction of a skyscraper on the plot of the Srebrna company and a PLN 50,000 bribe to Father Rafał Sawicz, which, according to Geralt Birgfellner's account, Jarosław Kaczyński allegedly handed over. He also controls the investigation into the granting of Swiss franc loans, and one of the banks that did this was BZ WBK, managed by the current prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki. Removing Ziobro from the political chessboard could lead to the entire ruling camp being swept off it". http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25108462,nietykalny-ziobro-szachuje-prezesa.html#S.DT-K.C-B.3-L.2.maly -- KACZYŃSKI'S 'FIVE' AS A STIMULATING ACTION - DEPUTY MINISTER OF FINANCE LESZEK SKIBA IN DGP: “Many economists point out that the introduction of measures from the new 'five' perfectly coincided with unfavorable events for us worldwide. One commentator even called it one of the best-timed stimulus packages. Indeed, this internal impulse can be very important for maintaining domestic demand, thanks to which companies will also gently pass through difficult times. I would like to point out that not only Poland is employing such measures; in Germany, too, there is a discussion about introducing a fiscal package”. -- OUR ECONOMY WOULD HAVE TO SLOW DOWN TO ZERO FOR US TO REACH THE DEFICIT LIMITS - SKIBA CONTINUES:“That is not a threat to us. Let's remember that according to EU requirements, our deficit cannot exceed 3% of GDP. The assumption for next year adopted in the APK (update of the convergence program, a document submitted annually by the government to the European Commission) is to achieve a structural deficit of 1.6%. To even approach the 3% deficit limit – considering the strength of the fiscal sector's reaction to changes in GDP dynamics calculated by European Commission experts – our economy would have to shrink, meaning GDP dynamics would have to fall significantly below 0%. This is an unlikely scenario. These calculations show that we are well prepared for turbulence in the global economy, even with the additional expenditures related to the new 'five'”. https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/605707,skiba-piatka-kaczynskiego-finanse-wydatki-rzad-pis-pieniadze-wywiad.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Marcin Kierwiński (turns 43), Longin Pastusiak, Edward Krzemień, Kazimierz Wóycicki, Izabela Dąbrowska, Sylwester Chruszcz.

Łukasz Mężyk