-- PAWEŁ BORYS DESCRIBES THE VICISSITUDES OF TWO LEADING PORTALS EITHER WITHDRAWING FROM HOLDING ONE ECONOMIC DEBATE OR AVOIDING ITS PUBLICATION: I thought the debate would be live, but it turned out on-site that it would be recorded and was supposed to be published in full the next day, which was a week ago! This did not happen, so the PFR spokesman asked several times when it was supposed to be published. It was supposed to be definitely on the weekend. Then, it was 100% confirmed for Wednesday with publication on the onet website. To this day, the debate has not been published. @PawelZielewski stopped responding. At 6:43 PM, Forbes published a one-sided interview with Sławomir Dudek from January 2023. I request the debate be published uncensored and uncut, as agreed, and information on when this will happen! I can only hope this isn't another 70-day malfunction. Let's give everyone a chance to know my arguments too. https://twitter.com/pawelborys_/status/1709646458792616092?s=48&t=bpeSkWvFaTbPKBqaoDV9Tg -- ONLY MEXICO HAS MORE BOMBINGS THAN SWEDEN - KATARZYNA TUBYLEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “It’s undeniable that gangs in Sweden have an ethnic character and primarily recruit from immigrant suburbs. This topic was taboo for a long time, but as early as 2021, the liberal daily ‘Dagens Nyheter’ published an analysis showing who the individuals arrested by the police for involvement in shootings between 2017-2021 were. 97 percent of them were young men with immigrant backgrounds, most often from the Middle East or Africa”. https://oko.press/przemoc-w-szwecji-wojny-gangow -- TODAY AT 12 PM IN THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE, PRESIDENT ANDRZEJ DUDA AND PRIME MINISTER MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI WILL MAKE A STATEMENT REGARDING THE MIGRATION COMPACT - AS INFORMED ON THURSDAY IN POLSAT NEWS BY THE HEAD OF THE PRESIDENTIAL BUREAU OF INTERNATIONAL POLICY, MARCIN PRZYDACH. -- FOR A FIFTH PARTY TO FALL BELOW THE THRESHOLD, THE FIRST WOULD HAVE TO EXCEED 40 PERCENT - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS CITED BY AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “Prof. Jarosław Flis, a sociologist from Jagiellonian University, assesses: - For a fifth party to fall below the threshold, the first would have to exceed 40 percentage points. When you raise your head, you shorten the tail”. -- DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY BRUTAL AND SHARP CAMPAIGN, POLARIZATION IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT MIGHT SEEM. IT IS THE LOWEST IN 16 YEARS BECAUSE POLITICIANS HATING EACH OTHER DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN POLARIZATION. SOME VOTERS ARE FED UP - FLIS CONTINUES AT KONDZIŃSKA'S: “Since the beginning of the campaign, PiS has been playing for strong polarization. - But despite the increasingly brutal and sharp campaign, polarization is not as high as it might seem. It is the lowest in 16 years because politicians hating each other does not necessarily mean polarization. Some voters are fed up, says Prof. Flis to 'Wyborcza'. He refers to the 10 percent that PiS politicians mention. - This is an example of the Palikot Movement, which in 2011 gained just over 10 percent and got 40 MPs into the Sejm. But if we reduce that support by half, it doesn't mean that 20 MPs would enter then, because only two would enter, he calculates. And he warns against such firm estimates. - There are still many unknowns and undecided voters, he says”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30262824,dlaczego-pis-kibicuje-lewicy.html -- TO WIN, YOU NEED VOTES FROM PEOPLE OUTSIDE TWITTER, AND ALSO OUTSIDE THE MEDIA BUBBLE - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “I know this is an unrealistic demand, but I believe an ideal campaign staff should leave Warsaw, disconnect from social media (especially Twitter), and think coolly, calmly, referring to reality. And the reality is as follows: media communication determines at most half of the votes that go to parties. The rest must be won through a real, concrete, traditional campaign. I also include the internet here, understood as a tool for communicating with ordinary Poles. You need to look for firepower, not subtle messages within the media bubble, which in Poland covers only a part of the electorate. You cannot confuse the art of PR, which is important and necessary in the life of a party, with running a campaign. You cannot speak to an imagined voter”. -- PIS HAS PREVENTED LARGE GROUPS OF ELECTORATE FROM MOVING TO KONFEDERACJA, WHICH IN THE SUMMER, LET'S REMEMBER, REACHED 15-16 PERCENT SUPPORT AND DREAMED OF 20 PERCENT, AND THEN OF REPLACING PIS AS THE MAIN RIGHT-WING FORCE - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Law and Justice should recognize what it has achieved in recent weeks: it has focused the debate on its chosen fields, reached its highest level of support since the outbreak of the hybrid war, and prevented large groups of the electorate from defecting to Konfederacja (which in the summer, let's recall, reached 15-16 percent support and dreamed of 20 percent, and then of replacing PiS as the main right-wing force). In early summer, there was little hope, and successive social offers even irritated voters. The 800+ fueled support for Konfederacja, the spectacular program of cheap housing loans did not bring profits (although it was socially necessary)”. -- THE CIVIC COALITION FAILED AT THIS VERY MOMENT, DROPPING FROM 43 PERCENT TO 24 PERCENT. PIS IS TODAY ONE STEP AWAY FROM 40 PERCENT SUPPORT. PIS CAN ONLY WIN WHEN IT FIGHTS - KARNOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: “The third term is the hardest to win. The Civic Coalition failed at this very moment, dropping from 43 percent to 24 percent. PiS is today one step away from 40 percent support – a result that is indeed impressive, considering the blow that the pseudo ‘visa affair’ was, effectively – unfortunately – inflated to absurd proportions by the III RP camp. PiS is so high because it clearly presents the choice facing Poles. An anti-mainstream party – and PiS will never be an establishment party – cannot build its success on a message based solely on achievements. PiS can only win when it fights. This is its DNA. It cannot and should not play any other role. The fundamental question therefore is: will the clearly organized action of throwing PiS into turmoil (divided into roles and voices) succeed, or will Jarosław Kaczyński's formation build its own wave of energy and power? There is still plenty of time. The key – I repeat – is in people's heads”. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/665271-idealny-sztab-powinien-wyjechac-z-warszawy-bardzo-daleko -- ON THE FACT THAT PIS'S NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN AGAINST TUSK CAN WORK - ANNA MIERZYŃSKA IN OKO.PRESS: “Yes, it can work – replies Monika Kaczmarek-Śliwińska from the University of Warsaw, an expert in image building. Although she immediately notes that such messages in a campaign only affect undecided individuals and those hesitating whether to go to the polls. PiS is fighting to demotivate voters who are wondering whether to support the opposition or perhaps stay home. This is a battle for a relatively small group of people, but their decisions can have a crucial impact on election results. However, as Barbara Brodzińska-Mirowska, a researcher of media politics and politics from Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, notes, PiS may have also 'shot too high'. And then the extensive negative campaign will backfire. After the Million Hearts March on October 2nd, PiS purchased a new series of ads on Facebook. All of them concerned Donald Tusk. Ten ads, still active on this platform, begin with the words: ‘When Tusk was Prime Minister…’. While two ads open with the phrase: ‘When Tusk was head of the European Council…’”. https://oko.press/negatywna-kampania-pis -- CIVIC COALITION: A PROGRAM A DECADE BEHIND THE TIMES - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Polish liberalism still has the face of Bronisław Komorowski, only he has grown a fashionable beard to his mustache, worked a bit on his physical form, and put on a slightly more fitted suit. However, as soon as he forgets himself or feels completely at ease, he immediately dispels any doubts. It is still the same Komorowski, next to whom one prays that he doesn't accidentally crack some embarrassing joke. (...) However, the KO program suggests that it is enough to remove PiS from power, distribute some money, introduce a bit of civilization, and of course, lower taxes, for everyone in Poland to be happy again. This program is at least a decade behind the times, and its main advantage is that the alternative seems worse”. -- VOTING FOR A PARTY THAT DOES NOT EVEN HIDE THAT IT HAS NO OFFER FOR YOU, BECAUSE IF YOU DON'T LIKE PIS, YOU WILL VOTE FOR IT ANYWAY, MUST BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE - WÓJCIK CONTINUES IN KRYTYKA: “Voting for a party that does not even hide that it has no offer for you, because if you don't like PiS, you will vote for it anyway, must be quite uncomfortable. One probably feels used and disrespected. They won't go to the main opponent, of course, because it would be too great a cultural shock, but they might choose passivity and escapism. In such fierce political struggle, high morale of one's own electorate is almost as important as its expansion”. -- IT IS HARD NOT TO GET THE IMPRESSION THAT ISSUES OF EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES AND EGALIARIAN SOCIAL RELATIONS ARE STILL TERRA INCOGNITA FOR PO AND ITS ASSOCIATES - WÓJCIK CONTINUES: “It is hard not to get the impression that issues of equal opportunities and egalitarian social relations are still terra incognita for PO and its associates. They have already encoded that society demands more active state policies, but they are still convinced that Poland is fundamentally a country of harmonious cooperation and gentleness, and that PiS just came and ruined everything”. https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/wybory-2023-koalicja-obywatelska-program-zacofany-o-dekade/ -- WITOLD GADOMSKI WRITES ABOUT REFORMS IN GREECE IN GW: “The first Mitsotakis government carried out a wave of privatizations, covering tourism infrastructure, coastal land, state shares in gas and electricity companies, and the Athens airport. A tax reform was implemented, which encouraged wealthy foreigners to settle in Greece. Tax rates were lowered, from a very high level, introduced in the early years of the adjustment programs. The goal was to attract investment. In the summer of 2020, the Law on Great Development was adopted, limiting the right to strike and abolishing collective agreements that had already been suspended in 2012 at the request of the 'troika' and then restored by the Tsipras government. In August 2020, a labor law reform was adopted, which allows employers to dismiss employees without having to provide reasons for the decision and without prior notification of those concerned. The government reformed legislation to facilitate oil and gas exploration”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30262379,okiem-liberala-grecka-tragedia-optymistyczna.html -- PKO ANALYSTS: PROGRESSING DEFLATION AT THE BEGINNING OF 2024 WILL ENABLE THE MPC TO LOWER INTEREST RATES BY ANOTHER 100 BP IN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT YEAR: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/10/02/analitycy-pko-postepujaca-na-poczatku-2024-dezinflacja-umozliwi-rpp-obnizenie-stop-o-kolejne-100bp-w-pierwszej-polowie-przyszlego-roku/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Michał Lorenc, Paulina Hennig-Kloska, Bartosz Marczuk.