Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Pacewicz: The emergence of the fourth horseman of the right-wing apocalypse will further increase interest in the right, RZ: Kosiniak to buy more F-35s

Łukasz Mężyk

-- DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT MAY PURCHASE ADDITIONAL F-35 FIGHTER JETS BEFORE THE ELECTIONS. THIS COULD BE THE LAST SUCH OPPORTUNITY - MAREK KUTARBA IN RZ: “Talks about a fourth major American loan for Poland are entering a decisive phase and are expected to conclude within a few weeks. It is highly probable that thanks to it, Donald Tusk's government will fund Poland with another package of American weaponry before next year's elections, including more fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets.”

-- FURTHER PURCHASES FROM THE USA, ESPECIALLY THE PURCHASE OF MORE F-35S, WOULD DISARM THE OPPOSITION'S PIS OF TWO IMPORTANT ARGUMENTS AND PARTIALLY WEAKEN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S SUPPORT FOR THE OPPOSITION RIGHT - KUTARBA CONTINUES IN RZ: “Further purchases from the USA, and especially the purchase of more F-35s, would disarm the opposition's PiS of two important arguments that it uses in political disputes with the current leadership of the Ministry of National Defense. The first concerns the accusation that armament purchases from Americans have been neglected to the detriment of Poland and transatlantic relations. The second, that the most important contract for the army, i.e., the purchase of F-35s, was solely the merit of PiS. To some extent, this could also partially weaken the Trump administration's support for the opposition right during next year's elections. The government could try to buy itself relative neutrality from Trump with such an order, who, after all, often takes a very transactional approach to politics.”
https://radar.rp.pl/modernizacja-sil-zbrojnych/art44891921-rzad-donalda-tuska-przed-wyborami-moze-kupic-kolejne-mysliwce-f-35-to-moze-byc-ostatnia-taka-szansa

-- TUESDAY'S POLITICAL AGENDA: THE PRESIDENT WILL APPOINT JUDGES, PIS PARLIAMENTARY CLUB MEETING, CZARNEK AND MORAWIECKI CONFERENCES, GOVERNMENT MEETING - 300LIVEhttps://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-07-28

-- THE PRIME MINISTER'S APOLOGY IS NOT COINCIDENTAL. SINCE ŻUREK COULDN'T MANAGE, THERE WILL BE NO ACCOUNTABILITY - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN ONE: “It is not impossible, by the way, that Giertych himself spread both rumors for self-promotion and to motivate Żurek. But there will be no further reshuffling in the Ministry of Justice before the elections. Contrary to appearances, Tusk is distancing himself from Giertych – he did not give him any important position after the elections. Secondly, even if the constitution does not give the president the power to block ministerial appointments, Nawrocki will not appoint Giertych. And who will do anything to him? Today, we can see the consequences of KO losing the presidential elections. Nawrocki's victory was also important for PiS in order to maintain control over the prosecutor's office and prevent accountability. In this sense, accountability died on the day of Nawrocki's victory on June 1, 2025, even before Żurek became a minister.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/stankiewicz-waldemar-zurek-ma-dokladnie-ten-sam-problem-co-adam-bodnar/6gc1nwj,452ad802

-- KURSKI IS AN ANTI-MIDAS. HE RIDICULES PIS ATTACKS ON MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “This is the whole Jacek Kurski. Everything he does, he turns into its opposite, into ridicule. In this way, he has completely ridiculed the current witch hunt against Mateusz Morawiecki by PiS loyalists.”

-- KURSKI IS DOING THIS DELIBERATELY. HE CONSCIOUSLY RADICALIZES EVERYTHING AND RIDICULES HIMSELF AND KACZYŃSKI. BECAUSE THANKS TO THIS, THERE WILL BE NO GOING BACK - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN RZ: “But anyone who thinks that Kurski simply blabbed would be mistaken. No, he is doing it deliberately. He consciously radicalizes everything and ridicules himself and Kaczyński. Because thanks to this, there will be no going back. And if Jarosław Kaczyński hesitated before Tuesday's meeting of party authorities, whether to avoid a split, after Kurski's words, there will be no return.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44891931-michal-szuldrzynski-jacek-kurski-to-anty-midas-osmiesza-ataki-pis-na-mateusza-morawieckiego

-- IF MORAWIECKI SUCCEEDS WITH HIS PARTY START-UP, THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE OF THE RIGHT MAY CHANGE: PIS AT THE LEVEL OF KONFEDERACJA, FOLLOWED BY KORONA AND ROZWÓJ PLUS - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “In addition to losing its 'scout electorate,' Kaczyński may continue to lose confused voters to the more distinct Konfederacja. This would mean a decline in Kaczyński's election projections to even 15% and less, especially since a snowball effect may occur and departures may turn into a group exodus. If, therefore, the scout start-up shows energy and efficiency, and PiS continues to turn sharply to the right, RP may gain as much as 8-9% in the elections.”

-- THE COLLAPSE OF PIS DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH FOR THE LIBERALS - PACEWICZ CONTINUES IN OKO: “Taking into account the discussed factors, one can outline a scenario for election forecasts (not to be confused with poll support):
PiS – 15-16%
Konfederacja – 16-17%
KKP – 9-10%
RP – 8-9%
On the other hand:
KO – 32-33%
NL – 7-9%
Below the threshold: Razem, PSL, and Polska 2050, regardless of their individual candidates.
Such a configuration of electoral support still gives the right a significant advantage in mandates. KO could count on a maximum of 180-182, and Lewica on about 25-28, which together gives a maximum of 205-210 seats. Slightly more than in a scenario with PiS dominating the right, but far too few to defend the government.”

-- IT IS SIMILAR TO THE 2023 ELECTIONS WHERE THE EMERGENCE OF A NEW FORCE – TRZECIA DROGA – GENERATED THE ELECTORAL IMPULSE KEY TO SUCCESS - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “Finally, one more problem for the October 15 Coalition. The emergence of the fourth horseman of the right-wing apocalypse may further increase interest in what is happening between the parties and broaden their offerings. Disputes between several versions of 'Polish-style right-wing' generate engagement from right-wing voters. It's a bit like in the 2023 elections, where the emergence of a new force – Trzecia Droga – generated the electoral impulse that was key to success.”
https://oko.press/czterej-jezdzcy-prawicowej-apokalipsy-morawiecki-goni-na-kucyku

-- WILL MORAWIECKI FIELD SONIK IN KRAKÓW - MAGDALENA KURSA IN GW: "It is worth adding that the Morawiecki project seems to be sympathized with by former PO politician Bogusław Sonik, who is scheduled to appear at Friday's 'Morawiecki's barbecue,' i.e., a conference organized by the Rozwój Plus association. Sonik's name has previously been mentioned in the context of running for mayor of Krakow on behalf of PiS. This did not happen, but perhaps the topic will resurface now."
https://krakow.wyborcza.pl/krakow/7,44425,32934858,krakow-pierwszym-testem-dla-morawieckiego-ma-tu-swojego-czlowieka.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Janusz Niemcewicz, Kazimierz Michał Ujazdowski, Piotr Maślak.
 


Łukasz Mężyk