Today's State of Play

POLITICAL STANDOFF: Pacewicz: The source of turmoil in PiS is the feeling that the ground is slipping away. Stanley: In the maximal scenario, Morawiecki would get 9% and 43 MPs.

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SIKORSKI ON THE NEED TO LIMIT ETS2: The EU set itself overly ambitious goals - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-07-27

-- DAWID KACPRZYK, MISSED HEART ATTACK AND DEATH IN HOSPITAL - FILIP BACZKURA, PATRYK SŁOWIK AND JAKUB STYCZYŃSKI ON PORTAL ZERO: "61-year-old Ms. Grażyna died at the Bródno Mazovian Hospital. Her heart literally broke. For over five hours, an acute myocardial infarction was not recognized, although it was evident in the initial tests. The doctor who admitted the woman to the Emergency Department was Dawid Kacprzyk. On May 14, 2026, after 9 a.m., Ms. Grażyna felt unwell – her blood pressure was 220/147 and she had severe chest pain. She happened to be at a bus stop right next to the Bródno Hospital. At 10:30 a.m., an ambulance brought the woman to the hospital, less than 200 meters away. In the Emergency Department, she was assigned a 'yellow' triage color (third out of five). An ECG performed at 11:10 a.m. showed significant deviations from the norm, suggesting a heart attack. The doctor on duty at the ER, Dawid Kacprzyk, did not notice the heart attack, nor did two other ER doctors. Kacprzyk ordered, among other things, a computer tomography without contrast, which was medically irrelevant in this case. Independently of the ECG, the troponin level – a significant indicator in cardiac diagnostics – suggested a heart attack. The norm is up to 16 units. For Ms. Grażyna, the first measurement was 94. The second – over 2200. An acute myocardial infarction was 'treated' with paracetamol until 3 p.m. After 3 p.m., the patient's condition drastically worsened. The woman died at 4:50 p.m., shortly after being transferred to the cardiology department."
https://zero.pl/news/dawid-kacprzyk-przyjal-61-latke-na-sor-zawalu-nie-rozpoznano-pacjentka-zmarla

-- JOLANTA SOBIERAŃSKA-GRENDA HERSELF WAS MOST FAMOUS FOR TAKING COMPENSATION FOR JOINING THE MINISTRY - JUDYTA WATOŁA IN GW: "A year after taking office at the Ministry of Health, Jolanta Sobierańska-Grenda boasts that she is apolitical and that the president has already signed 14 of her laws. She forgets that most of them were prepared by others, and she herself was most famous for taking compensation for joining the ministry. It is indecent to take compensation for taking the position of Minister of Health, especially since it is money from health insurance contributions. And that Sobierańska-Grenda, who now wants to set earning limits for doctors, herself exploited the system. The Ministry of Health only engages in PR, often using AI, and often it doesn't turn out – to put it mildly – very well. I can provide examples, and I won't torment you further here."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32932484,sobieranska-grenda-dumna-z-roku-w-ministerstwie-zdrowia-zapomina.html

-- HEAD OF ZONDACRYPTO AS A CROWN WITNESS? SECRET MEETING BETWEEN PROSECUTOR WEŁNA AND PRZEMYSŁAW KRAL - IZABELA KACPRZAK IN RZ: "Only a narrow circle of people knows about the foreign delegation of one of the heads of the CBA delegation and Prosecutor Marek Wełna, head of the Silesian department of the National Prosecutor's Office's Department for Organized Crime and Corruption. The delegation – unusual by prosecution standards – was secret. According to "Rzeczpospolita" sources, its purpose was to meet with Przemysław Kral, the head of Zondacrypto, who has been elusive for three months, not only to thousands of clients of the Estonian exchange but also to law enforcement agencies."
https://www.rp.pl/przestepczosc/art44882081-szef-zondacrypto-swiadkiem-koronnym-tajne-spotkanie-prokuratora-welny-z-przemyslawem-kralem

-- WIRTUALNA POLSKA HAS ESTABLISHED THAT THE DEPUTY MINISTER OF SPORT AND TOURISM HIMSELF BOUGHT MICRO-APARTMENTS, EARNED FROM RENTING THEM OUT, AND JUST BEFORE JOINING THE GOVERNMENT SOLD THEM TO HIS BROTHER – A PRIEST. HIS EX-WIFE ALSO OWNS A PREMISES IN THE SAME BUILDING - SZYMON JADCZAK AND MATEUSZ BACZYŃSKI IN WP: "12 meters and 40 square centimeters. Living room with kitchenette, bathroom with toilet. This is what the premises at Poznańska Street in Łódź look like. The owner is Marta Porębska-Raś, the ex-wife of the Deputy Minister of Sport and Tourism, Ireneusz Raś. Next door, two other premises are 13.05 and 12.98 sq m respectively and have an identical layout. The owner of both is Father Dariusz Raś, longtime archpriest of the St. Mary's Basilica in Krakow, former secretary of Cardinal Stanisław Dziwisz. The older brother of Deputy Minister Raś. On Thursday, we confirmed on-site: the premises can be rented out for short terms."
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/minister-ras-kupowal-mikrokawalerki-na-wynajem-dzis-pisze-o-nich-ustawe-7311607458994560a

-- 58% BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT RULING COALITION WILL LOSE POWER AFTER THE NEXT ELECTION - UNITED SURVEYS BY IBRIS FOR WIRTUALNA POLSKA: "When asked if the ruling coalition would retain power after the next election, a total of 58.3% of respondents answered negatively. The largest group consists of people who are completely convinced of the impending defeat – 31.3% of respondents chose the answer 'definitely not', while another 27% of respondents chose the option 'rather not'. Less than a quarter of Poles, i.e., a total of 22.9% of participants in the survey, believe in the renewed victory of the current ruling camp. The majority, 64% of the coalition's supporters, believe in its victory, but almost one in five of them, i.e., 19%, predicts the defeat of Donald Tusk's government."
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/koalicja-tuska-utrzyma-wladze-polacy-ocenili-7310875163306368a

-- THIS IS A FIGHT AT A PIŁSUDSKI FUNERAL WAKE - PIOTR PACEWICZ ON OKO.PRESS: "Whatever the outcome of this quarrel, it will weaken the image and electoral potential of PiS and its leader, who is trying to catch up with lost time. Before we justify this thesis, let us note a pattern: parties divide and quarrel especially when they weaken, and politicians begin to see the end of their personal careers looming. This leads to nervous searches for recipes to return to a safe past, disputes fueled by animosities dormant in times of stability emerge, and a bidding war of ambitions and accusations against those who think differently. The true source of the turmoil in PiS is the feeling that the ground is slipping from under the party's feet."

-- A COPY WILL NOT REPLACE THE ORIGINAL, CZARNEK WILL NOT OUTBID BRAUN, AND KACZYŃSKI WILL NOT SEDUCE VOTERS WITH MENTZEN - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: "In a word, PiS may suffer image losses from the current quarrel and further weaken its electoral position, losing point by point. If a split truly occurs, there will be a rapid acceleration (a key word for the Kaczyński brothers during Lech Wałęsa's presidency) PiS may become completely marginalized."
https://oko.press/sondaze-awantura-morawiecki-kaczynski-to-klotnia-na-stypie-po-pis

-- MORAWIECKI WANTS TO BE EUROPEAN CENTER-RIGHT. KACZYŃSKI HAS JUST MADE ROOM FOR HIM - PAULINA PACUŁA ON OKO.PRESS: "Mateusz Morawiecki gives the impression that he is drawing heavily from Péter Magyar's successful campaign in Hungary. His association wants to offer people what Tisza offered: including participation. Hence the idea of a 'substantive picnic,' dubbed the 'Morawiecki barbecue' in the media, hence the idea of an association that anyone can join. Hence the tour across Poland, which – be warned – has been going on for over a year and a half. But Morawiecki wants to distinguish himself on the right with something else: his attitude towards the European Union."
https://oko.press/mateusz-morawiecki-chce-byc-europejska-centroprawica

-- OUTSIDE THE PiS ELECTORATE, MORAWIECKI PRACTICALLY DOES NOT COUNT - BEN STANLEY ON KULTURA LIBERALNA: "First, taking the last parliamentary elections as a reference point, the Polish General Election Study allows us to measure Morawiecki's personal position and compare it with the party preferences of voters. As many as 87% of PiS voters like Morawiecki – six or more points on a scale of zero to ten. However, this is a measure of sympathy within the camp, not readiness to leave it. A more demanding criterion is met by someone who likes Morawiecki and at the same time ranks him higher than Kaczyński: in 2023, this was 21% of the PiS electorate. Outside of this electorate, Morawiecki practically does not count."

-- MORE OR LESS ONE-SIXTH OF THE CURRENT PiS ELECTORATE, ONE-EIGHTH OF THE CONFEDERATION ELECTORATE, ONE-TENTH OF PSL AND POLSKA 2050 VOTERS, AND ALMOST NOTHING ON THE SIDE OF THE CIVIC COALITION AND THE LEFT - STANLEY CONTINUES: "Taken together, both measures allow us to estimate the electorate available for a hypothetical Morawiecki party: roughly one-sixth of the current PiS electorate, one-eighth of the Confederation electorate, one-tenth of PSL and Polska 2050 voters, and almost nothing from the Civic Coalition and the Left. The distribution of this pool determines everything that happens next. More than two-thirds of the votes that a new party could gain lie today on the right: among PiS and both Confederation parties. The Civic Coalition would give it only a fraction of a percentage point."

-- THE WORST SCENARIO FOR THE RIGHT IS WHEN MORAWIECKI'S PARTY ACQUIRES HALF OF ITS POTENTIAL VOTERS. IN SUCH A SITUATION, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY NOT CROSS THE THRESHOLD, WITH A MEDIAN SUPPORT LEVEL OF AROUND 4.4 PERCENT - BEN STANLEY CONTINUES: "PiS would then lose six seats, and the entire right-wing camp – five. The reason is purely mechanical: the party collects enough votes to weaken PiS, but too few to translate them into seats. More than four percent of the votes evaporate from the system, and those who have crossed the threshold benefit from it."

-- ONLY WHEN ACQUIRING THREE-FOURTHS OF POTENTIAL VOTERS DOES MORAWIECKI'S PARTY HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME A PARLIAMENTARY ENTITY, WITH A MEDIAN OF 6.7 PERCENT OF VOTES - BEN STANLEY CONTINUES IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: "PiS would then drop from 143 to 130 seats, but the entire right-wing camp would lose only two – the 23 seats for Morawiecki's party would compensate for losses elsewhere. In this scenario, the splitters would not yet be kingmakers, as PiS could build a right-wing majority in coalition with the Confederation."

-- THE MAXIMUM SCENARIO IS 9% - STANLEY CONTINUES: "In an unlikely scenario, in which the new party immediately gains all available voters, it would win about 8.8 percent of the votes and 39 seats. PiS would drop to 121 seats, losing more than a third of its 2023 standing. And only here does the balance of the entire right-wing camp become positive: the camp gains two seats, as nothing is wasted anymore."
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2026/07/27/stanley-morawiecki-bedzie-lowil-w-elektoracie-pis-u/

-- TUSK MAY FIND HIMSELF IN THE UNEXPECTED SITUATION OF JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI FROM 2015, WHO, THANKS TO BOTH LEFT-WING PARTIES NOT ENTERING PARLIAMENT, WAS ABLE TO GOVERN ALONE - LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI IN INTERIA: "More than one bottle of wine 'for a special occasion' will be opened today at Parkowa in the Prime Minister's residence. When it seemed that all was lost and Poles would be fed scandals from the healthcare system managed by PO all summer, Kaczyński, not for the first time, proved to be a savior from trouble. If right-wing votes are fragmented among four or five smaller parties, and some of them do not cross the electoral threshold, then Tusk may find himself in the unexpected situation of Jarosław Kaczyński from 2015, who, thanks to both left-wing parties not entering the Sejm, was able to govern alone as the first party after 1989."

-- THERE IS ALSO A SCENARIO WHERE THE RIGHT, THANKS TO DIVISIONS, MAXIMIZES ITS RESULT, SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT RULING COALITION IN 2023 - JAŻDŻEWSKI CONTINUES IN INTERIA: "But there is also a scenario where the right, thanks to divisions, maximizes its result, similar to the current ruling coalition in 2023 – Kaczyński, although he won the election mathematically, is not governing because he had no one to form a coalition with. If Morawiecki, together with the Confederation, attracts voters who previously voted for Hołownia, and on the coalition's side there is demobilization due to unfulfilled promises and a weak term, then Kaczyński and Morawiecki, again in the same government, will be able to shake hands. However, then they will be under the leadership of a new hegemon – President Karol Nawrocki, who will not only appoint the prime minister but finally show what he is truly capable of."
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-jest-po-wszystkim,nId,23519370

-- THE CAMPAIGN TARGETING MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI IS INTENDED TO WEAKEN HIS POSITION, BUT MAY HAVE THE OPPOSITE EFFECT - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "Nevertheless, Morawiecki himself may benefit from this. For a more moderate electorate, the criticism that the former prime minister is receiving from figures like Jarosław Kaczyński, Mariusz Błaszczak, or Dariusz Matecki may paradoxically legitimize the former prime minister's project. The more the right-wing now distances itself from Morawiecki, the more he will grow in the eyes of centrist voters, for whom the radicalizing Kaczyński, Ziobro's policies, or the direction PiS took when Przemysław Czarnek became its face were a problem."

-- WILL TUSK FIND HIS WAY IN A REALITY WHERE, INSTEAD OF ONE STRONG PiS, THERE WILL BE TWO CONFEDERATIONS, PiS, AND MORAWIECKI'S PiS-LIGHT? - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: "If Morawiecki attracts a part of the electorate of the former Third Way, it will shift from the anti-PiS camp towards the right-wing camp, which may reduce Donald Tusk's coalition-building capabilities after the next election. Unless both Tusk and Morawiecki swallow their pride and decide to cooperate. But for now, that is unlikely. Moreover, Donald Tusk knows best in politics how to build polarization with Jarosław Kaczyński and PiS. He has been practicing this since 2005 and has achieved considerable success over these two decades. Will he find his way in a reality where, instead of one strong PiS, there will be two Confederation parties, PiS, and Morawiecki's PiS-light?"
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44887481-michal-szuldrzynski-dlaczego-pis-tak-mocno-bije-w-morawieckiego-stawka-jest-przyszlosc-prawicy-i-wladza-po-wyborach

-- AFTER THE SPLIT IN PiS, THE FIGHT FOR THE LEGEND HAS BEGUN - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: "In a sense, it's all over – that's how Jarosław Kaczyński summarized the decision to split PiS. Nothing could be further from the truth. A brutal battle for the legend and the hearts and minds of the right-wing has just begun."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32933143,kto-jest-zdrajca-a-kto-intrygantem-po-rozlamie-w-pis-zaczela.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Wiesław Władyka, Grzegorz Kajdanowicz, Jacek Tomczak, Stanisław Gorczyca.
 


Łukasz Mężyk