-- ONE YEAR SINCE THE GOVERNMENT RECONSTRUCTION. 

-- THURSDAY'S POLITICAL AGENDA: MORAWIECKI MEETS WITH KACZYŃSKI, TUSK AND KOSINIAK-KAMIYSZ DISCUSS THE PERUN PROGRAM, NAWROCKI IN DĘBICA, CZARZASTY IN JAWORZNO - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-07-22

-- SHORT-TERM RENTALS WITHOUT REAL LIMITATIONS. WHY ARE MINISTERS STUBBORNLY DEFENDING A LEGISLATIVE MISHAP? - WOJCIECH KARPIESZUK IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “It’s hard to believe that after many months of work, the Ministry of Sport and Tourism has released such a botched job. I am surprised by how the ministers are defending it. The Minister of Finance and Economy, Andrzej Domański, with almost disarming sincerity, admitted: 'Let's remember that thousands of Poles have invested their savings in properties, including for short-term rentals.' So what? Apartments are not an investment, and besides, no one is depriving 'investors' of their ownership rights; they can sell their apartments or find long-term tenants.”

-- A PRL-ERA TOWER BLOCK ON CHMIELNA STREET, WHERE ALMOST HALF OF THE APPROXIMATELY 200 APARTMENTS ARE SHORT-TERM RENTALS - KARPIESZUK CONTINUES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Last year, I wrote about a PRL-era tower block on Chmielna Street, where almost half of the approximately 200 apartments are used for short-term rentals. – Bachelor and bachelorette parties. Bags of garbage, not sorted, left on the landing, scratched walls, broken door handles, clogged chutes because people throw anything into them. It’s impossible to live here anymore. I’m genuinely scared. So many people pass through here – an 80-year-old resident of this Eastern Wall tower block told me.”

-- I DON'T WANT TO SPREAD THEORIES ABOUT LOBBYING HERE, BUT I'LL REPEAT: THE GOVERNMENT'S ACTIONS IN THIS OBVIOUS MATTER ARE INCOMPREHENSIBLE - KARPIESZUK'S CONCLUSION IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “I don't want to spread theories about lobbying here, but I'll repeat: the government's actions in this obvious matter are incomprehensible. It's hard to find a logical explanation for such a hopeless project. There is still time to improve it in parliament. And I hope that the MPs and senators will decide to do so.”
https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,32926909,najem-krotkoterminowy-bez-realnych-ograniczen-nie-uchwalajcie.html

-- THE UPCOMING 2027-2031 TERM WILL BE VERY BRUTAL ON THE RIGHT. IT WILL BE A FOUR-YEAR TERM OF CHAOS AND STRUGGLE - ROBERT WINNICKI IN A CONVERSATION WITH PIOTR OLEJARCZYK ON ONET: “The upcoming 2027-2031 term will be very brutal on the right. The campaign will undoubtedly be brutal. But I'm talking about the term itself. It will be a four-year term of chaos and struggle. I'm saying that with a high probability, as things stand today, the right will win, and there will be a huge problem in forming a government. Because the old guard, even if unwilling, will be relinquishing power, meaning hegemony on the right.”

-- IN MY OPINION, MORAWIECKI IS PROGRAMMATICALLY CLOSER TO KACZYŃSKI THAN CZARNEK - WINNICKI CONTINUES ON ONET: “Kaczyński appointed Przemysław Czarnek as a candidate for prime minister because he doesn't want to step down. I don't expect Czarnek to be anointed as his successor, because Kaczyński doesn't want to designate any successor. However, Zbigniew Ziobro has indeed fallen out of this equation. Przemysław Czarnek and his team have entered in his place. This isn't a fight for succession within PiS. It's a fight on two levels with the aspirations of Morawiecki and his team. The first level is personal ambitions for leadership, which Morawiecki has, and Kaczyński does not accept. Although, in my opinion, programmatically Morawiecki is closer to Kaczyński than Czarnek. The second level is a fight for the identity of PiS. We are talking on the day when the process of, perhaps, the final pushing out of Morawiecki's faction from PiS is ongoing. The process of PiS adopting a new identity is also underway.”

-- THE TRAJECTORY OF SOCIAL DYNAMICS IS WELL-ALIGNED FOR KONFEDERACJA, BUT I DON'T KNOW IF THIS CROSSOVER WILL HAPPEN BEFORE NEXT YEAR'S ELECTIONS - WINNICKI AGAIN WITH OLEJARCZYK ON ONET: “Essentially, Konfederacja just needs to avoid making major mistakes. The trajectory of social dynamics is well-aligned for Konfederacja. However, I don't know if this crossover will happen before next year's elections. (...) Konfederacja has the opportunity to become the largest right-wing force in Poland, but not necessarily as early as 2027.”

-- IF MORAWIECKI IS EXCOMMUNICATED ON TV REPUBLIKA, HE WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME - WINNICKI FURTHER: “Tomasz Sakiewicz today holds a position similar to Father Tadeusz Rydzyk 15 years ago. He can largely determine whether Mateusz Morawiecki will have a difficult or a very difficult time 'on his own.' If Mateusz Morawiecki is condemned, excommunicated, and cast out by TV Republika, he will have a very difficult time.”

-- KONFEDERACJA ALSO CHALLENGES PIS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE CENTER - WINNICKI CONTINUES: “Contrary to appearances, Konfederacja today does not challenge PiS solely from the right. Korona [a more radical right-wing party] – yes, it challenges exclusively from the radical side. But Konfederacja also challenges PiS significantly from the center.”

-- I EXPECT A SIMILAR MODEL TO AUSTRIA. FOR DECADES THERE HAVE BEEN THREE LARGE PARTIES THERE - CLAIMS WINNICKI ON ONET: “I've been saying this for almost two years now: I expect a similar model to Austria. There, for decades, we've had three major parties. We have the Social Democrats. We have the Christian Democrats, the traditional right-wing. And we have the Freedom Party of Austria, which is somewhat of an equivalent to Konfederacja.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/robert-winnicki-przyszla-kadencja-bedzie-czterolatka-chaosu/j5l6h99,79cfc278

-- PIS WILL BECOME A MEME PARTY, WHICH, UNLIKE SOCIALISM, CANNOT EVEN SOLVE THE PROBLEMS IT CREATED ITSELF - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA'S PORTAL: “At the same time, in the 'Nowogrodzka circus,' one cannot rule out some logical acrobatics and spectacular leaps through a burning hoop: the gentlemen will give themselves more time to decide, the association will change its statute, composition, or leadership – or the chairman will announce that in light of new information, he has changed his mind. PiS will then become a meme party that, unlike socialism, cannot even solve the problems it created itself.”

-- HOWEVER, IT IS NOT EXCLUDED THAT KACZYŃSKI IS APPROACHING THE MOMENT WHEN SOMEONE WILL EFFECTIVELY SAY "SHOW ME": - DANIELEWSKI CONTINUES: “Shameless bluffing has almost always brought him profits, so the PiS leader has made it a political method. He raises the stakes to the maximum to sow seeds of doubt in his opponent, he gives the impression of being ready for anything to make his adversary back down, he plays the role of a great strategist so that opponents assume he has five ready-to-go scenarios for the future up his sleeve. However, it is not excluded that Kaczyński is approaching the moment when someone will effectively say to him 'show me.'”

-- IF KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY LONGER THAN NECESSARY REMAINS BELOW 20% IN POLLS, WITH A MINIMAL LEAD OVER KONFEDERACJA, IT WILL BE A VISUAL AND POLITICAL CATASTROPHE FOR PIS - DANIELEWSKI AGAIN IN POLITYKA: “If Kaczyński's party remains below 20% in polls for an extended period, with a minimal lead over Konfederacja, it will be a visual and political catastrophe for PiS. It will also mark the end of Przemysław Czarnek's career as a candidate for prime minister, something Czarnek himself may not fully realize. After all, it was his faction that triggered the current crisis in PiS and provoked Kaczyński into issuing a radical ultimatum.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2351249,1,kompromis-kompromitacja-jedno-i-drugie-uplywa-termin-ultimatum-kaczynskiego-dzis-kluczowa-rozmowa.read

-- THE COALITION OF OCTOBER 15TH WILL NOT WIN THE 2027 ELECTIONS UNLESS IT HAS A REPLACEMENT FOR THE FORCE THAT THE THIRD WAY WAS IN 2023, WHICH GAINED 14% OF THE VOTE - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “At the same time, no one is particularly satisfied with the current balance of political forces in the country. The right-wing is still attacking and undermining each other, and the ruling side has no clear vision for extending its power. The Coalition of October 15th will not win the 2027 elections if it does not have a replacement for the strength that the Third Way provided in 2023, which gained 14% of the vote. Polska 2050 and the newly formed Unia Centrum, which are completely underestimated today, as well as the subtly present PSL, are still assets without which KO's success will lead to them leaving the government benches. Some new configuration of these 'bankruptcy masses,' another party or coalition, or something entirely new is in the air. Many declarations are heard that 'I will no longer vote for KO.' If, at the same time, someone does not have left-leaning inclinations, it's a problem.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2350883,1,trendsetter-braun-hiperrealista-kaczynski-juz-uruchomil-akcje-podkulania-ogona.read

-- THE HEAD OF THE PEASANT PARTY HAS AN UNPRECEDENTED OPPORTUNITY TO SUBORDINATE THOSE COALITION CIRCLES OF OCTOBER 15TH THAT POSITION THEMSELVES PARALLEL TO OR SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF KO - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The head of the Peasant Party has an unprecedented opportunity to subordinate those circles of the October 15th Coalition that position themselves parallel to or slightly to the right of KO. He is already inviting Szymon Hołownia to cooperate, he will certainly not object to cooperation with Unia Centrum, and if he manages to deprive Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz of control over Polska 2050, all entities that ran together in 2023 could repeat that maneuver. However, no longer in a partner position, but in a clear arrangement where Kosiniak-Kamysz is the hegemon and the rest are vassals.”

-- THE PSL, ACTING AS A DOMINATOR EMBRACING SURVIVORS WITH MINIMAL SUPPORT UNDER ITS WING, WOULD ALSO BE FUNCTIONAL FOR THE ENTIRE COALITION - DANIELEWSKI CONTINUES: “The PSL, acting as a dominator embracing survivors with minimal support under its wing, would also be functional for the entire October 15th Coalition. Furthermore, if one dismisses the scenario of an electoral coalition between the Peasant Party and KO as unrealistic, this is the only solution for the current ruling camp that is both electorally rational and politically feasible. Of course, reaching the Third Way's result would be unrealistic, but exceeding the electoral threshold with a significant margin – absolutely.”

-- KOSINIAK EMERGES AS ONE OF THE FEW MATURE POLITICIANS AMIDST THE COALITION'S DISARRAY - DANIELEWSKI CONTINUES: “Since becoming the head of the Peasant Party at the age of 34 in 2015, he has been a consistent, predictable politician, adhering to principles despite the liberal public opinion's distrust, PiS's temptations, and internal attempts to oust him. Today, he emerges as one of the few mature politicians amidst the coalition's disarray. And perhaps as the last chance – looking at the current political landscape – for the ruling camp to organize itself sensibly before next year's elections.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2350907,1,okruszki-po-trzeciej-drodze-czy-ktos-jeszcze-moze-ogarnac-ten-chaos-jeden-polityk-ma-szanse.read

-- BIRTHDAYS: Robert Kropiwnicki, Waldy Dzikowski, Marcin Witko, Marcin Wójcicki, Karol Darmoros.