-- PRESIDENT INVITES YOUTH TO JURATA, AUGUST 20-30:
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44881431-artur-bartkiewicz-mateusz-morawiecki-poza-pis-teraz-latwiej-bedzie-o-koalicje-z-grzegorzem-braunem

-- PIS MAY END UP LIKE THE FREEDOM UNION, OR RETURN TO POWER. HOWEVER, JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI HAS LESS AND LESS TIME AND STRENGTH FOR THE LATTER - JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “From our conversations with people in the PiS camp, Morawiecki's current goal is this: first, dig in firmly, create his own party, and before the 2027 elections, return to PiS to discuss a coalition and a joint start as a coalition committee. In the former prime minister's circle, they speak of even 10-12% that his party could win – with such a high rating, Rozwój Plus could run independently. This is a very optimistic outlook. Even 5-6% would give Morawiecki a strong negotiating position with Nowogrodzka.”

-- THE POLITICAL GRAVE IS VERY FAR AWAY. JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI HAS ALREADY SURVIVED MORE THAN ONE CRISIS - GĄDEK CONTINUES: “The biggest party split in its history is not the end of PiS. The political grave is very far away. Jarosław Kaczyński has already survived more than one crisis.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/co-dalej-z-pis-trzy-scenariusze-dla-kaczynskiego-i-morawieckiego/9nxf376,452ad802

-- KACZYŃSKI MARGINALIZES HIS PRIME MINISTERS - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN ONE: “It's hard not to notice a certain pattern here. Kaczyński, unlike Tusk, is able to delegate the leadership of the government to other politicians. At the same time, those who undertake this mission, sooner or later, do not end up well in PiS – it's as if Kaczyński, each time, activates a mechanism to block the excessive political growth of the prime minister he appointed.”

-- THIS MAY BE THE MOST DIFFICULT TEST IN MORAWIECKI'S ENTIRE CAREER, WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF HE WILL SHARE THE FATE OF KACZYŃSKI'S OTHER PRIME MINISTERS - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “But the former prime minister was also playing his own game. To protect himself from marginalization, he began building his own association, as if preparing a contingency plan in case of expulsion from the party. The events of recent days are pushing Morawiecki out of PiS and forcing him to activate Plan B now. This may be the most difficult test in his entire career, which will determine whether he will share the fate of Kaczyński's other prime ministers. But considering the dynamics within PiS and the fact that the party would never accept Morawiecki's leadership, and he would not accept marginalization, perhaps – sooner or later – what happened this past week was inevitable.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/majmurek-morawiecki-podzieli-los-poprzednich-premierow-wzorzec-kaczynskiego/xv0f06p,452ad802

-- THE STABLE ARRANGEMENT, WHERE KACZYŃSKI WAS THE DECIDER ON THE RIGHT, AND BESIDES HIM, THERE WERE SMALLER PARTNERS, IS NOW BECOMING HISTORY - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “I don't really believe in PiS growing. Instead, it seems that the stable arrangement, where Kaczyński was the decider on the right, and besides him, there were smaller partners, is now becoming history. Perhaps in a year, the Polish political scene will look different. And before the elections, the right wing will go into configurations we cannot yet predict.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44883911-michal-szuldrzynski-rozlam-w-pis-i-koniec-epoki-jaroslawa-kaczynskiego-trzy-wnioski-po-rozwodzie-mateusza-morawieckiego-z-pis

-- IT WILL NOW BE EASIER TO FORM A COALITION WITH GRZEGORZ BRAUN - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Mateusz Morawiecki wants to play the role of the pragmatic right, which would be acceptable not only to voters already supporting PiS but also to some voters who helped Donald Tusk come to power on October 15, mainly by supporting the Third Way. Meanwhile, PiS is clearing the path for a coalition not only with Konfederacja but also with Grzegorz Braun – we are observing these two processes in Law and Justice.”

-- MORAWIECKI'S FACTION, WHICH, AS IT TURNS OUT, IS NOT ONLY QUITE LARGE BUT ALSO VERY ASSERTIVE - BARTKIEWICZ CONTINUES IN RZ: “And since this is the case, it cannot be ruled out that after the 2027 elections, Morawiecki's faction, which, as it turns out, is not only quite large but also very assertive, would torpedo such an agreement. It is therefore better to get rid of uncertain elements in advance, so as – in already difficult coalition talks with Konfederacja – to eliminate a potential fifth column.”

-- DOES MORAWIECKI HAVE A MOMENT LIKE TUSK IN 2001? - BARTKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “From Morawiecki's perspective, the most important question is: is he today like Donald Tusk, who once led people out of the Freedom Union – meaning, has the moment come for a serious restructuring of the political scene, or is he more like Zbigniew Ziobro, who once left PiS and it turned out that without the Law and Justice logo, he was deprived of political strength. Jarosław Kaczyński is likely counting on the latter today – otherwise, he would not have decided on this divorce.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44881431-artur-bartkiewicz-mateusz-morawiecki-poza-pis-teraz-latwiej-bedzie-o-koalicje-z-grzegorzem-braunem

-- THE PRESIDENT WILL BE ONE OF THE BENEFICIARIES OF WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN PiS - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN CONVERSATION WITH AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “He will certainly be one of the beneficiaries of what has happened in PiS. As one who wants to be a great patron of a united right. The more divided parts this right wing, united by him in the future, will consist of, the greater his triumph will be.”

-- THERE WILL BE A TASK FOR NAWROCKI, AS A GREAT INTEGRATOR, UNIFIER, AND PATRON OF ALL THIS - DUDEK CONTINUES WITH KONDZIŃSKA: “And even if Konfederacja gains, the better for Nawrocki. If we have four or five right-wing parties, the strongest of which achieves 15-16% in polls, then it will be a task for Nawrocki, as a great integrator, unifier, and patron of all this. Especially since these few parties together can achieve a parliamentary majority. What has happened does not necessarily mean, as some believe and rejoice, that the right wing has lost next year's elections. I would caution against that.”

-- CZARNEK, AFTER HIS LACK OF SUCCESS IN RECENT MONTHS, PROBABLY ONLY HE HIMSELF BELIEVES IT WORKED - PROF. DUDEK CONTINUES IN GW: “Now it will become clear what they are worth, what they can do. Because it is evident that Kaczyński is weakening, directing the party less and less, and we will see who will be doing it now. There are some groups around the chairman, but who is setting the tone? Theoretically, Czarnek was supposed to do it, but after his lack of success in recent months, probably only he himself believes it worked.”

-- IN THE NEXT SEJM, QUITE SOON, WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A MINORITY GOVERNMENT. WE JUST DON'T KNOW YET WHETHER IT WILL BE MORE RIGHT-WING OR CENTER-LEFT - DUDEK CONTINUES: “And then there is Karol Nawrocki, who hopes that a right-wing government will be formed in the next Sejm. Even if it is a minority government, the key issue for him is that the prime minister is his man, because then he will have real power. Well, perhaps not as much as he would have if the government were a majority one. I would advise getting used to the idea that in the next Sejm, quite soon, we will likely be dealing with a minority government. We just don't know yet whether it will be more right-wing or center-left.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32931792,prof-dudek-rozpad-pis-wcale-nie-oznacza-ze-prawica-juz-przegrala.html

-- WHAT'S NEXT FOR PiS, NOW THAT KACZYŃSKI HAS BET ON HIMSELF? - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “Thursday's photo on X showing Kaczyński signing a document confirming his loyalty to his own party is a depressing sight. Because if Kaczyński has to declare loyalty to the PiS leader, i.e., to himself, it means that only his ambitions matter to him anymore.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32930810,co-dalej-z-pis-skoro-kaczynski-postawil-na-siebie.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Fr. Adam Boniecki (92!), Anne Applebaum, Krzysztof Truskolaski.