Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Mentzen Charts a Course for a Polish Milei, Government and Prime Minister Hit Record Low Popularity

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN MENTZEN'S MESSAGE AND THE ARGENTINIAN LIBERTARIAN PRESIDENT WERE NOTED BY PAWEŁ FARBISZ IN KJ IN SEPTEMBER 2024: “The Confederation leader promotes a capitalist model of the right, drawing inspiration from both Argentinian President Javier Milei and American Republicans. Mentzen's libertarian populism will likely appeal to the urban middle class, who see probusiness reforms, such as tax cuts, as their chance for socio-economic advancement.”

-- IN THE MOST TALKED-ABOUT ISSUES OF RECENT MONTHS, SUCH AS ARTISTS' PENSIONS OR HEALTHCARE, THE CONFEDERATION CALLED FOR A FIGHT AGAINST AN OPPRESSIVE ELITE – AS FARBISZ WROTE IN SEPTEMBER 2024, BUT TODAY THE GROUND IS MORE FERTILE FOR THIS THAN A YEAR AGO: “the precise definition of a populist, which we adopted, among other places, in the latest issue of 'Pressja', characterizes a person who mobilizes the people to fight against an oppressive elite. Mentzen considers EU officials and the current political establishment (the popular 'table') in Poland to be enemies of the nation.”
https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2024/09/23/polski-javier-milei-kampania-mentzena-to-zwiastun-wolnosciowego-populizmu/

-- DOCTORS WILL SWITCH FROM PORSCHES TO LAMBOS, JUST AS THEY SWITCHED FROM MERCEDES TO PORSCHES, IF YOU ADD MORE MONEY – MENTZEN SAID IN THE SEJM RECENTLY
https://x.com/SlawomirMentzen/status/2078018254992241151?s=20

-- THE CONFEDERATION IS PLAYING FOR THE END OF THE DUOPOLY – TOMASZ NYCZKA IN GW: “MP Mulawa is convinced: – This is definitely the beginning of the end of the duopoly. We just don't know how quickly it will happen, but this process has already begun. – For the Confederation, this is additional credibility. The Confederation is a right-wing party striving for great changes, PiS is a party dreaming of absolute power for its own sake – concludes MP Pejo.”

-- MULAWA ON THE FALL OF PIS – FURTHER IN NYCZKA: “MP Krzysztof Mulawa summarizes the turmoil in PiS and the ultimatum the party gave to Mateusz Morawiecki as follows: – We wish PiS and Morawiecki to fall apart. Morawiecki for the Green Deal, for opening Poland to mass immigration and European taxes, and PiS for not distancing itself from this politician despite betraying Polish interests in Brussels.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32918989,kryzys-w-pis-niezwykle-cieszy-konfederacje-to-jest-poczatek.html

-- GOVERNMENT AT A RECORD LOW POPULARITY. For the first time since September 2025, support has fallen below 30% – currently declared by 29% of respondents. At the same time, over the past month, the percentage of declared opponents of the government has significantly increased (by 6 percentage points). They now constitute 48% of all respondents – such a high proportion of government opponents was previously recorded in July 2025.

-- NEW CBOS SURVEY: 

-- ASSESSMENT OF GOVERNMENT ACTIONS: GOOD: 30% (-3) (down 10 since April), BAD 58%(+4) (up 11 since April in the 'bad' category).

-- TUSK'S GOVERNMENT AT ITS LOWEST: 31% GOOD – in July 2025, 59% BAD – in June 2025.

MORAWIECKI'S GOVERNMENT IN NOVEMBER 2023: 40% GOOD, 51% BAD.

-- GOVERNMENT SUPPORTERS: 29% (-3) (down 6 since April).

CURRENT TUSK GOVERNMENT AT ITS LOWEST: 29% in September 2025.

MORAWIECKI'S GOVERNMENT AFTER LOSING THE ELECTION – in November 2023: 32%.

-- GOVERNMENT OPPONENTS: 48% (+6) (up 9 since April).

CURRENT TUSK GOVERNMENT AT ITS LOWEST: 48% OPPONENTS – in July 2025.

MORAWIECKI'S GOVERNMENT IN NOVEMBER 2023: 44%.

-- SATISFACTION WITH THE PRIME MINISTER – CBOS: 31% (-4), (down 6 since April), MORAWIECKI HAD 36% in November 2024. TUSK AT HIS LOWEST – 31% in July 2025.

-- DISSATISFACTION WITH THE PRIME MINISTER: 58% (+2) (up 5 since April), MORAWIECKI HAD 53% in November 2023. TUSK AT HIS LOWEST: 59% DISSATISFIED WITH THE PRIME MINISTER – 59% in July 2025.

-- THE GOVERNMENT IS DIVIDED BY THE LOWEST SUPPORT LEVELS OF THIS TERM BY:

GOVERNMENT SUPPORTERS: 0 pp.
GOVERNMENT OPPONENTS: 0 pp.
ASSESSMENT OF GOVERNMENT ACTIONS: already at its lowest
SATISFACTION WITH THE PRIME MINISTER: 0 pp.
DISSATISFACTION WITH THE PRIME MINISTER: 1 pp.
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/raporty_tekst.php?id=7225

-- CBOS: OBJECTIONS TO POLAND RECEIVING UKRAINIAN REFUGEES HAVE, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE HISTORY OF OUR MEASUREMENTS, OUTWEIGHED SUPPORT (52% versus 42%). The percentage of Poles who consider the aid provided to Ukrainian refugees by our country to be too much has also increased (54% compared to 50% last September), while the proportion of those who consider it to be adequate has decreased (40% compared to 46% previously).
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/raporty_tekst.php?id=7239

-- PIS – THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT – IS ONLY DIVIDING TODAY IN ORDER TO TRIUMPHANTLY REUNITE BEFORE THE ELECTIONS – PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “Part of 'liberal Poland' naively believes that it is enough to wait for PiS to split, and the elections will be won by themselves. And PiS – this cannot be ruled out – is only dividing today in order to triumphantly reunite before the elections.”

-- INDEED, A CURRENT POTENTIAL SPLIT MAY BE A HARBINGER OF FUTURE RECONCILIATION. VOTERS LIKE SUCH GESTURES – SZUBARTOWICZ FURTHER: “In this situation, the fantasy that PiS will fall apart and it will be easier to maintain power sounds like a joke from the catalog of unserious politics. Even if Kaczyński pushes Mateusz Morawiecki out of the party, and Morawiecki himself does not suddenly announce that he loves PiS more than his own association, the current potential split can be a harbinger of future reconciliation. Voters like such gestures.”

-- INDEED, IT'S A GREAT ALIBI TO APPROACH THE ELECTIONS WITHOUT ANY DEEPER REFLECTION, BUT WITH THE SAME NAIVE HOPE WITH WHICH ONE APPROACHED THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS – SZUBARTOWICZ FURTHER: “The government side rejoices that Law and Justice is veering sharply to the right, because then it will be even easier to portray the political opponent as a participant in the 'brown wave'. It also rejoices that a divisive atmosphere has set in within PiS, as it counts on fragmenting the right. This would be a great alibi, after all, to approach the 2027 elections without any deeper reflection, but with the same naive hope with which one approached the presidential elections.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-droga-do-zatracenia-fantazja-o-rozpadzie-pis-brzmi-jak-zart,nId,23515542

-- AN INCREASINGLY PASSIVE HEAD OF GOVERNMENT WITH NO IDEA FOR A POLITICAL OFFENSIVE – MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “An undeniable leader, a patriarch, a manager. But also an increasingly passive head of government with no idea for a political offensive. Does Donald Tusk still have the strength to lead the October 15 coalition to victory?”

-- IT'S NOT VERY CLEAR WHAT THE PRIME MINISTER ACTUALLY THINKS AND WHAT HE STANDS FOR – DANIELEWSKI FURTHER IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “In other matters important to the ruling camp's voters, an impression of chaos arises when it's not very clear what the prime minister actually thinks and what he stands for. After the ECJ ruling on the transcription of same-sex marriages, Tusk first thundered that the European Union can impose nothing on us in this matter, only to dramatically call on ministers a few months later to speed up work on appropriate regulations. Similarly, on the issue of accountability for PiS abuses of power – Tusk is a radical demanding decisive action one day, and a dove the next, pointing to the limitations related to adhering to the rule of law.”

-- YES – HE IS HERE, HE HAS A MAJORITY, HE HOLDS POWER, BUT WHY REALLY? WHOSE INTERESTS DOES HE REPRESENT, ON WHAT IDEAS DOES HE ACT, WHAT DOES HE WANT TO CHANGE IN POLAND – DANIELEWSKI FURTHER: “All of this increasingly gives the general public the impression of bland and chaotic leadership and a government that is distinguished by nothing significant. Yes – it exists, it has a majority, it holds power, but why really? Whose interests does it represent, on what ideas does it act, what does it want to change in Poland – all of this remains in the realm of speculation, not concrete facts. Tusk is a leader of reaction, not creation. Consequently, the government has no recognizable symbol that could be carried as a banner into the elections, because the slogan 'we are slightly better than the opposition' is unlikely to rouse electoral enthusiasm.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2350153,1,stare-recepty-doktora-tuska-ma-sile-znow-walczyc-o-wladze-a-moze-raz-jeszcze-wywroci-stolik.read

-- BIRTHDAYS: Renata Beger, Anna Milczanowska, Radosław Lubczyk. SUNDAY: Stanisław Piotrowicz, Maciek Grabowski, Anna Knysok.
 


Łukasz Mężyk