Today's State of Play
-- SZEFERNAKER: THE PRESIDENT VETOED LAWS INTRODUCING PARTNERSHIP ASSOCIATIONS, MENTZEN: IF WE GIVE EVEN MORE MONEY, DOCTORS WILL STOP DRIVING PORSCHES AND START DRIVING LAMBOS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-07-17
-- DONALD TUSK HAS BASICALLY ADMITTED IT. IT'S THE END OF THE GOVERNMENT'S MAIN STRATEGY - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “The leader of the government himself and the largest party within it admits that accountability is not something the government can show its supporters today and say 'look, we delivered'. And there's nothing to suggest this situation will change by the 2027 elections. It would be a big surprise, for example, if the prosecutor's office managed to effectively get the US authorities to extradite Zbigniew Ziobro to Poland.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/donald-tusk-wciska-hamulec-przyznal-ze-trudno-bedzie-rozliczyc-pis/t0z6n6r
-- CHAOS IN PIS IS OFF THE CHARTS - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI ON POLITYKA WEEKLY PORTAL: “Kaczyński meets with Woch and simultaneously pushes Morawiecki out of the party, polls are falling, Konfederacja is nipping at their heels. A split this time seems inevitable.”
-- THERE IS NO LOGIC TO WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN PIS LATELY - CONTINUES DANIELEWSKI: “There is no logic to what has been happening in PiS lately.”
-- WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF MORAWIECKI TAKES FOUR TO FIVE PERCENTAGE POINTS FROM PIS, AND A BOOSTED CONFEDERATION OVERTAKES KACZYŃSKI'S GROUP - CONTINUES DANIELEWSKI: “One could argue that if a separation is to occur, it's best to do it now, clear the ground, and from autumn, the party can launch its political offensive anew, unified and acting as one fist. The question, however, is what will happen if Morawiecki takes four to five percentage points from PiS, and a boosted Konfederacja overtakes Kaczyński's grouping in the polls. How will this affect not only the politicians but also the voters nervously?”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2350491,1,nowe-odcinki-na-nowogrodzkiej-kaczynski-znow-stawia-ultimatum-morawiecki-wreszcie-wyleci.read?src=mt
-- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI HAS PAINTED HIMSELF INTO A CORNER. POLLS SHOW A TRAP HE HAS FALLEN INTO - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “This is a dead end. PiS will not be credible in the race for anti-Ukrainian sentiment with Grzegorz Braun. By resorting to radical anti-Semitic rhetoric, Braun will always be more authentic than Kaczyński. And the potential for rebellion is so great today that for a part of PiS's electorate, it appears as the very core of the mainstream, even though it wants to be the leading anti-system party. Both Confederation formations will benefit from Kaczyński's meandering. In other words, Kaczyński has decided to make exactly the same mistake he made a year ago, challenging Braun and Mentzen after the presidential elections, in which their voters supported Nawrocki. Since then, PiS's support has been steadily declining.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44835291-michal-szuldrzynski-jaroslaw-kaczynski-sie-zakiwal-sondaze-pokazuja-pulapke-w-ktora-wpadl
-- PIS, SPEAKING SOMETIMES WITH CZARNEK'S VOICE, SOMETIMES WITH MORAWIECKI'S, SOUNDS LIKE A FORMATION WITHOUT A PROGRAM AND IDENTITY, INCREASINGLY A PROPOSITION FOR NO ONE - JAKUB MAJMUREK ON ONET: “Kaczyński tried to respond to this by putting forward Czarnek, hoping it would at least stop the bleeding on the right flank, but not only did it not stop the losses on the right, it also provoked a rebellion from the more moderate faction within the party. Perhaps PiS could have once played the 'developmental' wing of Morawiecki and the Czarnek wing – but today, the party speaking alternately with Czarnek's voice and Morawiecki's sounds like a formation without a program and identity, increasingly a proposition for no one. Putting forward Czarnek, we can say today, turned out to be a mistake.”
-- HAS CZARNEK DELIVERED ANYTHING IN THE FOUR MONTHS HE HAS BEEN PRIME MINISTER CANDIDATE, HAS HE ACHIEVED EVEN ONE CLEAR POLITICAL OR IMAGE SUCCESS - CONTINUES MAJMUREK ON ONET: “One can generally wonder if Czarnek has delivered anything in the four months he has served as prime minister candidate, if he has achieved even one clear political or image success. Unfortunately for the former minister of education, it is difficult to point to even one moment when Nowogrodzka could say: yes, Czarnek was a good idea.”
-- HE HAS SPECIALIZED IN CULTURE WARS - CONTINUES MAJMUREK: “Czarnek should not capitalize on the hospital crisis in any way either. It is not surprising that the PiS candidate for prime minister is not associated with competence in healthcare, or in politics understood as solving concrete problems at all – he has specialized in politics as a culture war.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/majmurek-wystawienie-czarnka-okazalo-sie-bledem-kaczynskiego/e08kr2y,452ad802
-- PIS IS LOST ON THE BRAUNIST PATH - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK, DOMINIKA SITNICKA, AND PATRYCJA TARKIEWICZ ON OKO.PRESS: “The pact was announced not with Bosak, not with Mentzen, but with… Marek Woch, who received a paltry 18,000 votes in the presidential elections. Is this another 5D chess move and an attempt to distract from internal problems? Or perhaps a symptom of the disease afflicting this formation? It's hard not to see desperation in the leader of the largest right-wing party, who reaches out to someone who lost in the first round even to Maciej Maciak. Or perhaps the key is Woch's cooperation with Grzegorz Braun? Yes, yes, as late as the autumn of 2025, they were supposed to form a broad 'firefighting' front together. The 'Braunization' of PiS's message is a fact.”
https://oko.press/pis-zagubiony-na-braunistowskim-szlaku
-- THE FRAGMENTATION OF THE RIGHT WILL END IN DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT - SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI IN NEWSWEEK: “When the party 'Stowarzyszeni i Poniżeni' (The Associated and Humiliated) announces its formation, no right-wing party will have more than a dozen percent support. The power of the right, Nawrocki, Kanał Zero, with Gawryluk and Republika somewhere in the back, and it will all end with Tusk's government. You're a reject from Konfederacja and you immediately get 10%, that's the climate in Poland. Well, Braun. The Americans have already announced in Yalta-style that this man will not be in the Polish government. And without this man, there will be no right-wing government. How would Nawrocki, who went to bed with Trump, appoint him? I'm telling you, this expansion of the right will end with Tusk.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/z-pis-wyjdzie-mateusz-morawiecki-i-zalozy-partie-to-przepis-na-kleske-prawicy/q4eyqtc
-- AS MANY AS 53.9% OF RESPONDENTS ASSESS CZARNEK'S INFLUENCE ON PIS'S POSITION NEGATIVELY, A TOTAL OF 22.1% SEE CZARNEK'S POSITIVE INFLUENCE ON PIS'S RATINGS AND POSITION - WP: “In the latest United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska, respondents were asked: 'How do you assess the influence of Przemysław Czarnek on the position of Law and Justice on the political scene?'. The results do not bring good news for Kaczyński's party. A total of 53.9% of respondents assess Czarnek's influence negatively, with 29.2% choosing the option 'definitely negative' and 24.7% choosing 'rather negative'. Less than a quarter of respondents view the former minister of education's actions positively. A total of 22.1% of respondents see Czarnek's positive influence on PiS's ratings and position. 8% assess this influence as 'definitely positive', while 14.1% as 'rather positive'.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/czarnek-szkodzi-czy-pomaga-pis-mamy-nowy-sondaz-7308135590004736a
-- ON THE ISSUE OF LGBT+ PEOPLE, IT IS TIME TO STOP BLAMING LAW AND JUSTICE CONSTANTLY - DOMINIK PUCHAŁA IN GW: “I wish this government all the best, and precisely for this reason, I would not want it to cease its efforts to improve the situation of LGBT+ people in Poland due to presidential resistance. It is time to stop constantly blaming Law and Justice for the lack of success. Action must be taken where President Karol Nawrocki cannot interfere. These areas will be indicated (and have repeatedly indicated) by organizations working for LGBT+ rights. Elections are approaching, and although one might think that non-heterosexual people will always choose liberals and not the right, regardless of what these liberals – despite their promises – have not done for them, soon in Poland too, civilized right-wingers will understand, just as they did in Great Britain, that by fighting for the family, they must extend its model to include LGBT+ people. At that point, rainbow voters might no longer support Donald Tusk. However, there is still time to act.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32916667,w-sprawie-osob-lgbt-czas-przestac-ciagle-zrzucac-wine-na-prawo.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Anna Bikont, Tadeusz Pokrywka.
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