state of play: 04/28/2026

STATE OF PLAY: Everyone Awaits the Elections, Mentzen Leaves the Door Open for a Potential Coalition with Civic Coalition in Some Form Without Tusk, Duda and Braun Possible Candidates in Krakow?

Łukasz Mężyk

-- IN A NUTSHELL, MENTZEN HAS DENIED AND RULED OUT DEALS WITH TUSK, JUST AS WITH KACZYŃSKI, AS HE HAS BEEN DOING FOR MONTHS, BUT HE HAS STILL LEFT HIMSELF AN OPEN PATH TO A POTENTIAL COALITION WITH CIVIC COALITION IN SOME FORM - TOMASZ NYCZKA IN GW: "But the closer we get to the elections, the more often questions will arise about who Mentzen and his Confederation would form a coalition with. Last week, during the just-launched Q&A tour, i.e., Mentzen's meetings with voters across Poland. When asked there if a coalition with Civic Coalition was possible, but for example under the leadership of Radosław Sikorski, Mentzen said: - I rule out nothing in principle, except a coalition with Tusk, Kaczyński, and the left. One can reach agreements on certain matters with other parties. We will try to play this out in a way that we don't perish, but rather that we are able to change Poland as much as possible. In a nutshell, Mentzen has seemingly denied and ruled out deals with Tusk, just as with Kaczyński, as he has been doing for months, but he has still left himself an open path to a potential coalition with Civic Coalition in some form".
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32754852,propaganda-pis-wpycha-konfederacje-w-objecia-ko-i-tuska-mentzen.html

-- GRZEGORZ BRAUN HAS NOT RULED OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RUNNING IN THE ELECTIONS IN KRAKOW - HIS PARTY IS GROWING IN THE POLLS, HE WILL PROBABLY ALSO FIGHT FOR KRAKOW - MAGDALENA KURSA IN GW: "Grzegorz Braun has not ruled out the possibility of running in the elections in Krakow - his party is growing in the polls, he will probably also fight for Krakow. He has no chance for the presidency, of course, but the game is also about introducing, for the first time in history, circles to the right of PiS, i.e., from both Confederations, into the Krakow city council. Let's recall that the referendum concerns the recall of both the mayor and the city council (voters will answer two questions)".

-- THE NAME ANDRZEJ DUDA ALSO RETURNS VERY OFTEN IN THE CORRIDOR DISCUSSIONS - FURTHER BY KURSA IN GW: "But the name Andrzej Duda, the former President of the Republic of Poland, who fought for the Krakow presidency in 2010, also returns very often in corridor discussions. Back then, he didn't even make it to the second round. Today, however, he would be running from a completely different position, and he could also gather votes from outside the PiS circles. - Given what Karol Nawrocki is doing, Duda now appears to be a completely rational person. I just don't know for what purpose the former president of the country would expose himself to an almost certain defeat in Krakow - says one observer of political life, recalling that polls conducted for years showed that the PiS candidate had no chance for the Krakow mayor's seat".
https://krakow.wyborcza.pl/krakow/7,44425,32753842,kto-wezmie-krakow-gdyby-odwolano-miszalskiego.html

-- PIS IS CLOSER TO KO IN A POLL MENTIONED BY MARCIN FIJOŁEK AND PIOTR WITWICKI IN INTERIA'S PODCAST: "Social Changes also checked which party respondents would vote for if the elections were held next Sunday. Civic Coalition received 33% of the votes, PiS - 28%, Confederation - 12%, Confederation of the Polish Crown - 9%, New Left - 7%, Together Party - 5%, Poland 2050 and PSL - 2% each, and 2% of respondents chose the 'other' option".
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-dwoch-koalicjantow-pod-progiem-w-nowym-sondazu-zaskakuje-par,nId,23422680

-- MORAWIECKI MIGHT HAVE CONCLUDED THAT IT IS BETTER TO WAIT WITH THE FULL LAUNCH OF HIS PROJECT TO AVOID GETTING BORED TOO QUICKLY - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN PRZYPISY NACZELNEGO TYGODNIKA POLITYKA: "Morawiecki might therefore have concluded that it is better to wait with the full launch of his project to avoid getting bored too quickly. Moreover, he would prefer to be kicked out of PiS, because then he would be a victim of President Kaczyński, he would have a founding legend and gain greater credibility in the eyes of that infamous 'centrist electorate' that everyone counts on, although it is hard to see. If he left on his own, he would be stigmatized as a 'divider of the right', at a time when it is urgently necessary to remove 'the worst government in the Third Republic', i.e., Tusk, from power".

-- JANICKI ON AN EARLY ELECTION SCENARIO: "The second vortex is perhaps even stranger. A party from which a group of MPs has resigned has ministers (and wants a deputy prime minister), and the resigned MPs also have a minister. A group with a negligible social following now (0.5% plus 0%) is co-governing, and without it, the ruling camp would lose its majority in the Sejm. Prime Minister Tusk cannot afford to have one of the coalition formations vote with impunity for the dismissal of Minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska at the request of the opposition, even if he himself wanted to dismiss her, because the prestige of his power would fall to zero. If he stuck to his earlier announcements, he would have to remove the entire Poland 2050 from the government, because individual MPs cannot be expelled from the coalition, and after losing the majority, he would have to request early elections".

-- THE RECENT TURBULENCES, ABOVE ALL, SHOW THAT THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE IS TIRED OF THE POLL-BASED DRAW BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT AND THE OPPOSITION (ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE LATTER), AND THAT A BRILLIANT MOVE, A BREAKTHROUGH OF THE IMPASSE, A DECISIVE BLOW IS BEING SOUGHT - FURTHER BY THE FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: "These recent turbulences, above all, show that the political landscape is tired of the poll-based draw between the government and the opposition (although still slightly favoring the latter), and that a brilliant move, a breakthrough of the impasse, a decisive blow is being sought. The PiS right-wing was absolutely certain of a return to power in 2027 not long ago, but the 'Czarnek' operation has so far brought disappointment, PiS is not growing, sentiment has declined, hence perhaps Morawiecki's bolder actions. Both Confederations have stabilized their results but are no longer growing, and Civic Coalition maintains its leading position, but with weak partners."

-- POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY HAS SET IN. IT IS EVIDENT THAT THE CURRENT BALANCE OF POWER IS INEFFICIENT - MARIUSZ JANICKI AGAIN: "Political uncertainty has set in. It is evident that the current balance of power is inefficient, it blocks each other mutually, and also has internal tensions. On both sides, there is a fear that voters will eventually make some massive decision, because they may not want another four or nine years of fighting between two palaces and decisional stagnation."

-- EVERYONE IS ALREADY WAITING FOR THE ELECTIONS - JANICKI'S CONCLUSION: "Tusk is therefore trying to prevent the discouragement of the liberal electorate and paints a picture of a grand victory that will unleash the political forces of democrats, for example, by allowing presidential vetoes to be rejected. The contest for infecting with enthusiasm continues, although it is evident that the engines are running on fumes and basically everyone is already waiting for the elections."
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2340851,1,gra-w-kurczaka-w-polskiej-polityce-nastapily-wlasnie-dwa-spore-zawirowania.read

-- CZARZASTY ON THE SITUATION IN THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH: THE DEPOLITICIZATION MODEL HAS PROBABLY NOT WORKED - 300LIVE: 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- "YOU ARE CLOSING THE HOSPITAL? GREAT!". HOW TUSK'S GOVERNMENT IS PRIVATIZING HEALTHCARE - GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI AND MARIA LUBURA ON PORTAL ZERO: "The takeover of district hospitals can be quite a profitable business. It's a significant piece of infrastructure strengthened in recent years with EU funds. Does it have to be a hospital? If a black hole appears in access to medical services in a given area, it is easier to sell private services - Grzegorz Sroczyński talks with health systems expert Maria Libura".

-- THE EFFECT WILL BE NOT EVEN A CREEPING, BUT A QUITE LIVELY COMMERCIALIZATION - FURTHER LIBURA WITH SROCZYŃSKI: "Public hospitals will start to exert pressure to be able to provide paid services for patients. Simply put, they will have idle capacity. Some equipment can be unplugged and wait until the next year when the National Health Fund pays, and some equipment doesn't like that. But since we have so much free capacity, why not force public hospitals to do something for money? When you want to truly understand why a system exists, don't think about what its creators intended, don't read official declarations. Instead, look at what the system produces at the output. I don't know what Ministers Grenda and Domański are thinking, but I can bet that the effect of their actions will be not even a creeping, but a quite lively commercialization."
https://zero.pl/news/zapasc-w-ochronie-zdrowia-libura-zamykacie-szpital-swietnie-o-prywatyzacji-szpitali

-- DEAR MINISTER, IF YOU ARE READING THIS, I HAVE A BRIEF MESSAGE FOR YOU: IF I HADN'T HAD A QUICK TEST, EVEN IF IT WAS SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS ONE, I WOULD BE DEAD - MARCELINA ZAWISZA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH PATRYK SŁOWIK ON PORTAL ZERO: "Minister of Health Jolanta Sobierańska-Grenda says that diagnostic access can be limited; that it will not harm patients. Dear Minister, if you are reading this, I have a brief message for you: if I hadn't had a quick test, even if it was shortly after the previous one, I would be dead. Simply put: I wouldn't be here anymore. Your moving of numbers in Excel has real consequences."

-- AFTER ALL, IF THEY CLOSE A HOSPITAL IN THE COUNTY, THE CHANCE THAT A FAMILY WITHOUT A CAR WILL QUICKLY DIAGNOSE THEIR CHILD BECOMES SMALLER - FURTHER ZAWISZA WITH SŁOWIK: "We have something like an unwritten social contract, that if a child gets sick, we will put all possible effort into curing them. Diagnostics can be a problem. Because if they close a hospital in the county, the chance that a family without a car will quickly diagnose their child becomes smaller. When a given facility exhausts its annual contract with the National Health Fund, it often simply stops admitting patients, even if it received money for the child. Finally - this is a note to our readers - let's believe our children. The real problem, still, is that we think our children are lying to us. They say they hurt so they don't want to do something, they don't want to exercise in PE, etc. And it's certainly often the case. But let's not underestimate it. If my parents had decided I was lying to avoid exercising at school, I would have died."
https://zero.pl/news/zapasc-w-ochronie-zdrowia-marcelina-zawisza-opowiada-o-swojej-chorobie-i-problemach-systemu

-- POLAND'S DEBT WILL EXCEED THE EU THRESHOLD. GOVERNMENT DOCUMENTS INDICATE THIS - GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN MONEY: "In the context of the deficit, it is not only its high level that is concerning, but also the fact that at the end of this year, the structural deficit (which is the deficit that should exist at full utilization of production capacity in the economy) will be 7%, so it will be higher than the actually projected result. The effect of such a high deficit is expected to be another record level of debt to GDP. At the end of 2025, it was almost 60%. And according to the Ministry of Finance, it will be 65.1% this year. And the ministry itself emphasizes that this means exceeding the EU prudential threshold of 60% debt to GDP. This is still well below the EU average, which in 2025 was 81% of GDP, but the rapid pace of growth of this ratio is concerning. At the end of 2023, it was still below 50% of GDP for Poland, however, the high deficit causes a very rapid increase in debt."
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/dlug-polski-przebije-unijny-prog-mowia-o-tym-rzadowe-dokumenty-tylko-w-money-pl-7279856229534144a.html

-- CIVIC PLATFORM SWEEPS THE PARTNERSHIP ASSOCIATIONS UNDER THE RUG - KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA RECALLS A TEXT BY WITOLD MROZEK FROM 2012, THE FIRST TUSK GOVERNMENTS: "Same-sex unions can be formalized in the Czech Republic and Hungary. The Polish government and parliament are again avoiding the issue. After many failed attempts - Prime Minister Jiří Paroubek's team managed to introduce partnership unions in the Czech Republic. Also exclusively for same-sex couples. President Václav Klaus's veto was overridden by parliament, thanks to which on July 1, 2006, in Kladno (Central Bohemian Region), Pavel Sýkora and Miloslav Sejkora were able to solemnly enter into their union. When will a similar day come in Krosno or Legnica? Today we can say one thing - certainly not before the end of the Civic Platform's government."
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/po-zamiata-zwiazki-partnerskie-pod-dywan/

-- BIRTHDAYS: Marek Biernacki, Jacek Piechota, Andrzej Szejna, Mariusz-Orion Jędrysek, Konrad Gołota.
 


Łukasz Mężyk