-- POLITICAL WEDNESDAY AGENDA: SEJM SESSION BEGINS, SIKORSKI IN THE USA, CONFERENCES BY CZARZASTY, KRAJEWSKI, AND ZIELIŃSKA - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-07-15

-- THE SCENARIO WHERE DONALD TUSK RETAINS THE PRIME MINISTER'S POST IS MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE - WP ON THE UNITED SURVEYS POLL: “The latest poll conducted by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska brings grim news for the ruling coalition (Civic Coalition, The Left, PSL, and Poland 2050). The scenario where Donald Tusk retains the Prime Minister's post becomes mathematically impossible. The right-wing is on a clear upward trend, collectively gaining a significant advantage in seats. Focusing on individual party results, Civic Coalition remains in the lead, with 28.6% of respondents declaring their intention to vote for it. However, Donald Tusk's party has seen a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the mid-June survey.”

-- PIS DEFEATED BY THE SUM OF TWO CONFEDERACIES - FURTHER WP POLL: “The combined result of Sławomir Mentzen's Confederation and Grzegorz Braun's grouping (25.9%) is higher than the support for PiS (23%).”

-- MENTZEN AND BOSAK'S CONFEDERATION GAINS 3.5 POINTS: “Confederation remains the third force in the country with a powerful mandate of trust, receiving a substantial 15.7% of the votes. This is an increase of 3.5 percentage points, making this grouping a key player in the fight for power. Grzegorz Braun's independent start with the Confederation of Polish Crown would bring him as much as 10.2% of the votes (+0.6 percentage points). This means that the two national-liberal formations together garner over a quarter of all votes in Poland.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/mamy-nowy-sondaz-dwie-konfederacje-silniejsze-niz-pis-7307062576543744a

-- ANTI-UKRAINIAN OBSESSION: CZARNEK OUTFLANKED BRAUN ON THE RIGHT. ARRIVING IS PIS KORONY POLSKIEJ - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “Nazism is being resurrected in Ukraine in glory and honor, and the European Union should cut off military support to Ukrainians – these are Przemysław Czarnek's latest theses. PiS has attacked the right flank so strongly that it has actually broken through it. By cranking up the radical, anti-Ukrainian message to maximum levels, Jarosław Kaczyński's party has become PiS of the Polish Crown today – a somewhat clumsy copy of Grzegorz Braun's grouping. Will it work?”

-- THIS IS ALREADY THE KIND OF POLITICAL PERSUASION THAT HAS THE OPPOSITE EFFECT OF WHAT IS EXPECTED, IT STARTS TO REPEL VOTERS INSTEAD OF ATTRACTING THEM - DANIELEWSKI CONTINUES: “Czarnek is becoming pushy in the style of telemarketers selling photovoltaic panels, sets of magic pots, or commemorative, worthless coins. This is already the kind of political persuasion that has the opposite effect of what is expected; it starts to repel voters instead of attracting them.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2350257,1,antyukrainska-obsesja-czarnek-obszedl-brauna-z-prawej-przed-panstwem-pis-korony-polskiej.read

-- AT THIS STAGE, EVEN JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI HIMSELF WOULD PROBABLY BE A MORE EFFECTIVE CANDIDATE FOR PRIME MINISTER, BECAUSE HE HAS A SIMILAR NEGATIVE ELECTORATE, BUT EVERYONE TAKES HIM SERIOUSLY - KACPER KITA ON X: “Przemysław Czarnek has once again lost his way between outbidding Braun, which he won't win in the eyes of Crown voters or anyone else's, and instead denies PiS's line from their governing period, and simplistic propaganda that PiS's rule was perfect while Tusk is a demon from hell. At this stage, even Jarosław Kaczyński himself would probably be a more effective candidate for prime minister, because he has a similar negative electorate, but everyone takes him seriously.”
https://x.com/KacperKita/status/2077115689274372349?s=20

-- BETRAYAL OF POLAND, OR CZARNEK FINALLY SPOKE LIKE PUTIN - ROMAN IMIELSKI IN GW: “The bidding war unleashed on the right, about who is more anti-Ukrainian, has led to Przemysław Czarnek, a candidate for PiS's candidate for prime minister, completely adopting the Kremlin's narrative. Mr. President, there's nothing to explain here! Either you and your colleagues are playing on the same team as Putin, or you are not. Because if Czarnek remains a candidate for the candidate for prime minister, the answer will be unambiguous.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32912558,zdrada-polski-czyli-czarnek-w-koncu-przemowil-putinem.html

-- PIS IS CRACKING ON THE ISSUE OF UKRAINE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “With his statement on TV Republika, Przemysław Czarnek struck at the very core of Polish raison d'état, which requires viewing Russia's war with Ukraine from a broader, geopolitical perspective. If Morawiecki and Czarnek differ on such a fundamental issue, it means that – although they are theoretically in the same party – they have practically nothing politically linking them anymore.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44820581-michal-szuldrzynski-pis-peka-w-sprawie-ukrainy-przemyslaw-czarnek-i-mateusz-morawiecki-na-dwoch-biegunach

-- TO PUT IT BLUNTLY – CZARNEK IS REPULSIVE – IN HIS BEHAVIOR, ARROGANCE, SELF-CONFIDENCE, RUDENESS - MAREK MIGALSKI IN WP: “The factor causing the failure of the "Czarnek Effect" operation is… Czarnek himself. Indeed, he says what a radically right-wing voter would like to hear. Indeed, he holds views similar to those of the leaders of both Confederations. Indeed, he tries to curry favor with their electorate and pander to their tastes. But the personality of the PiS candidate for prime minister hinders his mission. To put it bluntly – Czarnek is repulsive – in his behavior, arrogance, self-confidence, rudeness.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/afekt-czarnka-opinia-7307368242612672a

-- TUSK CONVENED THE CIVIC COALITION CLUB. GOAL: MOBILIZATION - GRZEGORZ OSIECKI IN WP: “A year before the official election campaign begins, Civic Coalition wants to mobilize MPs for field work. On Wednesday, Donald Tusk will meet with the Civic Coalition club – the Prime Minister intends to discipline the MPs and remind them that the fight for election results is ongoing. – The club is meant to be mobilizing, partly on the basis of various foolish ideas from our MPs, the message is to reach them that they need to get to work; it's not about them walking around, giving out "hundreds" [money], voting, and going home – says a source close to the Prime Minister. – Mobilization and motivation, intimidation and reassurance. That, in short, is likely what the club meeting will be like – notes one of the Civic Coalition MPs.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/tusk-zwolal-klub-ko-cel-mobilizacja-7307392958990336a

-- BIRTHDAYS: Henryk Kowalczyk.