Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: The Presidential Palace as the Right's Main Creative Hub, Zaremba: I Would Vote Against SAFE in a Referendum Because It Shifts Decision-Making Power to Brussels

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SATURDAY'S POLITICAL AGENDA: PiS to Present Prime Ministerial Candidate, National Congress of New Left - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- GOD SAVE THE IRANIAN NATION - GRZEGORZ BRAUN SIGNS THE CONDOLENCE BOOK AT THE IRANIAN EMBASSY: https://x.com/KoronyPolskiej/status/2030045461529211164?s=20

-- EDITORIAL OFFICES TAKEN OVER BY THE ELLISONS ARE VEERING RIGHT, WHO ARE THE ELLISONS, THE FUTURE OWNERS OF TVN? - BOLESŁAW BRECZKO IN GW: “Immediately after the takeover, changes began, primarily visible in the CBS news station. Bari Weiss was appointed editor-in-chief, known for her sharp criticism of "leftist woke culture." She was the one who decided to halt, at the last minute, the "60 Minutes" program about the horrific conditions in a Salvadoran prison, to which the Trump administration had been sending alleged undocumented immigrants.”

-- PARAMOUNT'S TELEVISION STATIONS IN OTHER COUNTRIES ARE NOT SHOWING CLEAR POLITICAL SHIFTS - BRECZKO CONTINUES IN GW: “Paramount's television stations in other countries are not showing clear political shifts. Employees of the stations in Australia and the UK feared such changes, but for now, there's no indication. The Ellisons are not particularly interested in television stations and their political line; that's not what's important to them. They themselves are involved in projects of a much larger caliber. This applies primarily to the father.”
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,177150,32638707,nie-wystarczy-ze-wygraja-inni-musza-przegrac-kim-sa-ellisonowie.html

-- PRESIDENT KAROL NAWROCKI SAVES PIS FROM ITSELF, THE PALACE IS THE RIGHT'S MAIN CREATIVE CENTER - ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “Perhaps it went like this: the President of the National Bank of Poland came to help the President, and consequently, the President helped PiS catch its breath. Either way, an alternative proposal emerged from the Presidential Palace, which is proving to be the main creative hub for the right wing, while all PiS could manage in recent weeks was the message of a 'German loan.'”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43918081-estera-flieger-na-maga-klopoty-safe-0-proc-prezydent-karol-nawrocki-ratuje-pis-przed-nim-samym

-- THE GOVERNMENT'S CONDITION IS ONE: BOTH PROGRAMS - YES; ONLY THE NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND'S PROGRAM - NO - ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ IN INTERIA: “Interia has learned that the ruling party does not intend to dismiss the "Polish SAFE 0%" program proposed by the president from the outset. - If Karol Nawrocki needs some political success, to bring about a win-win situation, then there's no problem - we hear from the prime minister's circle. The government has one condition: both programs - yes; only the National Bank of Poland's program - no. - If we say we are not dismissing the president's proposal from the start, then we also expect the president not to dismiss the SAFE bill on day one - explains our source in the Chancellery of the Prime Minister.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-nie-ma-problemu-zaskakujacy-glos-z-otoczenia-premiera-ws-saf,nId,22616467

-- WHAT CAN I DO, I WOULD FEEL SAFER IF THIS LOAN DIDN'T EXIST. IT'S CONSTRUCTED IN A WAY THAT IT'S MEANT TO SOLIDIFY THE POLISH POLITICAL SCENE AND OUR RELATIONS WITH THE EU FOR YEARS - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “Firstly, the ability to block the loan at any moment truly makes the Polish political scene dependent on Brussels. Eurocrats will be able to blackmail Polish authorities in any way they please, especially those they dislike, if a right-wing coalition governs after 2027. The right wing rightly sees this as a whip against them. But it's not just about defending their political skins, but about pluralism and the right to conduct an independent policy within the scope permitted by EU treaties. Moreover, SAFE is an institutional project. It shifts the burden of decision-making to Brussels (here one can add the capitals of the most influential players in the Union) without amending the treaties. This is a decision for decades, hence the prospect of solidifying our relations with the EU.”

-- IF KAROL NAWROCKI WERE TO CALL A REFERENDUM ON SAFE, I WOULD VOTE AGAINST THAT PROJECT - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “If Karol Nawrocki were to call a referendum on SAFE, I would vote against that project. But since the initiative for a referendum must be approved by the coalition Senate, I won't have the opportunity. I am, however, curious how this exchange of blows will translate into polls and election results in 2027. In the era of memes, the right wing's arguments are still slightly more complicated than the coalition's simple slogan: they give, so let's take. But Nawrocki's latest move slightly weakens that impression.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-zreczny-wist-nawrockiego-ale-los-safe-niestety-przesadzony,nId,22616599

-- THE PRESIDENT HAS DEMONSTRATED HIS TACTICAL AGILITY - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “However, with all the legal or economic reservations (which even Sławomir Mentzen, once again declared a traitor by PiS, invoked), the president has demonstrated his tactical agility. Instead of a blunt 'no,' he presented some counter-proposal. A good one? A bad one? We won't even have the opportunity to dissect it. All those who are against SAFE for political reasons now have a foundational myth: 'there was another way.' And if you didn't want this 'other way,' it's because you are only interested in making Polish defense dependent on the EU decision-maker.”

-- TUSK'S PEOPLE AND THE PRIME MINISTER HIMSELF HAVE LONG SURPASSED THE RIGHT WING IN THEIR MORALISTIC INTERPRETATION OF INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY POLICY - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “True, PiS was the precursor to the moralistic interpretation of international and security policy, and even occasionally reverts to such language in this debate. But Tusk's people and the prime minister himself have long surpassed the right wing in this regard. To the detriment of public life quality, not only aesthetically but also substantively. In conditions of such polarization, there is, of course, no question of any exchange of rational arguments. At the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine, there were some signals of compromise among the main political forces around the issue of defense. Today, not a trace of them remains.”

-- THIS IS NOT POLITICS BORN OF PARLIAMENTARISM BUT OF "TWITTERISM" - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN RZ: “This is not politics born of parliamentarism, which generally in previous eras at least assumed a token conversation. This is politics on the scale of rampant 'twitterism,' juggling mainly memes and invectives. Incidentally, it currently gives the ruling party an advantage. Tusk has taken the banner of military readiness from the opposition. His slogans are more accessible than the right wing's complicated arguments.”

-- PIS IS EXPERIENCING A SLIGHT, OR PERHAPS MORE THAN SLIGHT, IDENTITY CRISIS - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN RZ: “It also seems that PiS is experiencing a slight, or perhaps more than slight, identity crisis. Partly due to personal feuds, but they are linked to an essentially substantive dispute about the balance sheet of the Morawiecki government. The offer of PiS from its eight years in power was quite clear. Poles were to associate the national state, which cares about its sovereignty and the preservation of traditional values, with generous social handouts. Some of its elements also had goals other than poverty reduction, such as the 500+ program, presented as a tool of pronatalist policy (which, incidentally, did not particularly succeed). Today, this language still appears, but it's used with less and less conviction. It seems that at least some PiS members have bought into the effectiveness of leaning towards Konfederacja's free-market language, which is supposed to be attractive to young people and also facilitate the formation of future coalitions.”

-- DESPITE THE EROSION OF SUPPORT FOR KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY, A YEAR AND A HALF BEFORE THE ELECTIONS, TUSK IS STILL LOSING POWER RATHER THAN GAINING IT - ZAREMBA AGAIN: “Will the right wing, deprived of support from national and international elites, be able to respond with something similar in the next election campaign? The SAFE program is intended, among other things, to prevent such a thing from succeeding. However, any definitive outcome is still difficult to predict. If one looks at the polls, despite the erosion of support for Kaczyński's party, a year and a half before the elections, Tusk is still losing power rather than gaining it.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art43917341-piotr-zaremba-zderzenie-dwoch-wizji-i-dwoch-wrazliwosci

-- SHE THOUGHT FOR A MOMENT AND THEN SAID NO, BECAUSE WHAT TRULY FASCINATED HER WAS POLITICS AND SOCIAL ISSUES, BUT DUE TO HER FATHER, THERE WAS NO CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY IN THIS SPHERE - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA ON MONIKA JARUZELSKA IN GW: “She co-created "Twój Styl" (Your Style), the first luxury magazine for women after the market transformation, and held managerial positions in a company whose portfolio included W. Kruk and Deni Cler. When I spoke with her a dozen or so years ago and asked if fashion, designer shows, and the world of women's magazines were truly her main passion, she thought for a moment and then said no, because what truly fascinated her was politics and social issues, but due to her father, there was no chance for activity in this sphere.”

-- EVEN THEN, SHE PREDICTED THAT RADICALISM WOULD DOMINATE THE INTERNET AND BECOME MAINSTREAM. AND TRADITIONAL MEDIA WOULD WEAKEN – KUBA WOJEWÓDZKI REMEMBERS, QUOTED BY WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “– I like Monika Jaruzelska and appreciate her intelligence, although I haven't spoken to her in a long time. I don't want to criticize her harshly, even though we're talking about a first-tier name – let's be honest. I remember a conversation we had years ago with media expert Professor Wiesław Godzic. Even then, she predicted that radicalism would dominate the internet and become mainstream. And traditional media would weaken – recalls Kuba Wojewódzki, who publicly supported Jaruzelska in her senatorial campaign seven years ago. And he says: – Perhaps she is fulfilling what she predicted back then. Or perhaps she is trying to re-enter politics. Appearing in Braun's circle guarantees a strong spotlight directed precisely at her. A brown one, but a clear one. Perhaps that's what she was after.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32632031,wielowieyska-ona-nasiaka-pogladami-jak-gabka-slysze-gdy.html
 


Łukasz Mężyk