Today's State of Play
-- THE PRIME MINISTER IS ALREADY IN KYIV: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/
-- THE RBN SETUP WILL PAY OFF FOR BOTH KAROL NAWROCKI AND WŁODZIMIERZ CZARZASTY - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “Now, Karol Nawrocki has become systematically interested in the position of Marshal. Not in the woods, but in the palace, but still. And it looks like this setup will pay off for both politicians in the media. It’s interesting who will blink first.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43751191-zuzanna-dabrowska-ustawka-na-rbn-oplaci-sie-i-karolowi-nawrockiemu-i-wlodzimierzowi-czarzastemu
-- BOTH THE PRIME MINISTER AND THE PRESIDENT WANT TO DRAW PUBLIC ATTENTION TO ISSUES THAT MAY RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER THE OTHER SIDE OF THE POLITICAL DISPUTE POSES A THREAT - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Neither one nor the other matter is a political game-changer that will sink anyone. However, it may play an important role in mobilizing their own electorates (look at who you might give power to!), as well as in sowing doubts about the other side in the hearts of the undecided on whom to bet on in the next political round. It is clear that both Karol Nawrocki and Donald Tusk consider this a stake worth playing for.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43750491-artur-bartkiewicz-jeffrey-epstein-i-rbn-o-wlodzimierzu-czarzastym-czyli-gra-w-skojarzenia
-- THE GOVERNMENT HAS ACTUALLY GIVEN UP ON KLICH - MARCIN FIJOŁEK IN POLITYCZNY WF: “- Their fruit has already ripened. First, I discussed with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs what it could be. I heard that the ministry is signaling to the Palace that it is giving up on Bogdan Klich as ambassador to the United States,” Marcin Fijołek said in a new episode of Interia’s commentary podcast.”
-- FIJOŁEK ON THE MYSTERIOUS AMBASSADOR CANDIDATE: “As Marcin Fijołek learned, during the aforementioned conversation between Sikorski and Nawrocki, a certain name was put forward by the head of state. - It's a mysterious candidate, whose name neither the Ministry of Foreign Affairs nor the Palace wants to reveal. The only thing I heard was that he would be palatable, and even presented as a success for both sides – he is not associated with any camp, he is not a politician, he comes rather from the expert environment,” he said in “Polityczny WF”. The topic of “Mysterious Don Pedro from the Land of Ambassadors,” as the host of “Graffiti” put it in the podcast, is to return at the National Security Council meeting, convened by Nawrocki for February 11.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-tajemniczy-don-pedro-z-krainy-ambasadorow-ma-pogodzic-rzad-i,nId,22548426
-- THE PRESIDENT HAS CALMED DOWN - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Now the president – given Braun’s rising poll numbers, already reaching 10 percent – has calmed down. Krzysztof Bosak’s Confederation of Nationalists, and even Sławomir Mentzen’s socially insensitive economic liberal, appears to be a stable ally.”
-- PIS IS LOOKING FOR AN IDEA FOR BRAUN BY REACHING OUT TO PAGAN CIRCLES - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES IN GW: “The attack is to come from a completely different flank. The weekly [SIECI] has hit a sore spot: Braun is gathering around him “godless people,” Satanists, New Age followers, proponents of paganism, people who spit on the Holy Scripture.”
-- PIS HAS NOT CUT ITSELF OFF FROM THE PATHOLOGIES OF ITS RULE - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “PiS has not cut itself off from these pathologies; what’s more, the people responsible for them are still the faces of the party. In such a situation, rebuilding its ratings, which are falling to 24 percent in some polls, seems like a Herculean task. The narrative that the “Tusk regime” is persecuting the opposition also sells poorly: none of its politicians are in jail; on the other hand, courts have recently convicted politicians associated with the current ruling coalition. Moreover, PiS has a problem with internal factional infighting, which is taking place in full public view.”
-- KOSINIAK FOR MODERATE RIGHT-WINGERS - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “Because the voters of the moderate right have an alternative: Kosiniak-Kamysz, demonstrating faith and Catholicism, standing firm behind the Polish uniform, blocking the left-wing agenda – or the PiS-Confederation alliance with Braun, who is somewhat stylized as a Sarmatian, somewhat as an old-fashioned intellectual, but somewhat strange, and furthermore with neo-pagans, Russian agents, anti-Semites, deniers of gas chambers. The PSL can grow significantly on this, provided it can convince voters that this is precisely the choice that conservative Poles face.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32578243,wielowieyska-kaczynski-spuscil-z-tonu-boi-sie-juz-nie-tylko.html
-- MENTZEN DECIDED HE DOESN'T NEED TO BE IN THE MEDIA NOW BECAUSE HE WILL RETURN FOR THE CAMPAIGN - TOMASZ NYCZKA IN GW: “He argues that “the peak of popularity should be on election day, not two years before the election”: – You can’t be in form when there are no competitions. It makes no sense to be in form now. (...) Ossowski adds that “Sławomir Mentzen may have decided that he doesn’t need to be in the media now and social media is enough for him.” He points out: – Grzegorz Braun has absolutely outdone everyone now. We are talking about him, he is the most controversial. Mentzen next to him is essentially a man of the center.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32577035,mentzen.html
-- THE WAY GRZEGORZ BRAUN’S GROUP FORMULATES ITS POLITICAL MESSAGE IS DICTATED BY METICULOUS CALCULATIONS AND THOROUGH RESEARCH - KAMILA BARANOWSKA IN INTERIA: “And she adds that Braun serves many small voter groups that have so far been dispersed among various political initiatives. However, she calls his party an “ephemera,” not believing that Braun can keep these people with him in the long run. – These voters are more anti-system than Braun himself; at some point, he will also become too mainstream for them, for example, when he participates in a campaign, in debates, etc.,” our interlocutor believes.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-kim-sa-wyborcy-grzegorza-brauna,nId,22547433
-- THE THIRD TEMPTATION OF KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ. THE INSIDE STORY OF TALKS ABOUT “ALLIANCE REVERSAL” WITH THE USA IN THE BACKGROUND - MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “PiS is once again sounding out the Peasants’ Party. PSL politicians have reportedly received another offer to form a technical government with Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz at the helm, or perhaps even Szymon Hołownia or Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz. The Americans are allegedly behind this offer.”
-- THIS TIME THE ARGUMENT WAS SUPPOSEDLY “THE AMERICANS WANT THIS” - KOLANKO CONTINUES: “The proposal was reportedly made by various factions within PiS. This is at least the “third temptation” of Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz in recent years. This time, the argument was supposedly that “the Americans want this,” who are threatening to no longer cooperate with the Minister of National Defense if he rejects the “last chance offer” and does not head a government that would be more pro-American than Donald Tusk’s cabinet.”
-- OR PERHAPS A PIŚ GOVERNMENT WITH CONFEDERATION AND POLSKA 2050? - KOLANKO CONTINUES IN RZ: “PiS politicians must, of course, realize that the Peasants’ Party is unlikely to change its mind. Hence, they are starting to weave other scenarios. Because if Kosiniak-Kamysz does not want to be the prime minister of a technical government, then perhaps Szymon Hołownia or Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz? An alliance of PiS with presumably the remnants of Polska 2050, because many of its MPs will not agree to an alliance reversal, would of course also need the support of Confederation.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art43676771-trzecie-kuszenie-kosiniaka-kamysza-kulisy-rozmow-o-odwroceniu-sojuszy-z-usa-w-tle
-- PIŚ’S REFERENCE TO FOREIGN INFLUENCES IS A CROSSING OF CERTAIN NORMS - HUBERT SALIK IN RZ: “Regardless of whether it is true that the US administration of Donald Trump is trying to change the government in Poland or not, PiS’s reference to foreign influences is a crossing of certain norms.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43747611-hubert-salik-dwa-warianty-zmiany-rzadu-kazdy-jest-zly
-- 4TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATH (AFTER A LONG ILLNESS) OF PROF. JERZY OSIATYŃSKI, MINISTER OF FINANCE IN HANNA SUCHOCKA’S GOVERNMENT, WHO INTRODUCED VAT IN POLAND WITHOUT CHAOS, A LONG-TIME MEMBER OF THE FINANCE COMMITTEE, AND ONE OF THE LEADING FIGURES OF THE FREEDOM UNION ENVIRONMENT.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Teresa Piotrowska, Sławomir Potapowicz, Piotr Krzystek.
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