Today's State of Play
-- CZARNEK ON THE TIMELINE FOR PRESENTING THE PIS CANDIDATE FOR PRIME MINISTER: THE LEADERSHIP'S INTENTION IS TO BET ON ONE LEADER, PRZYDADCH ON THE PEACE COUNCIL: A HORSE WITH BRIDLES TO WHOEVER ANSWERS WHAT THE GOVERNMENT'S POSITION IS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live
-- DESTINATION: CHINA AND RUSSIA. WHERE DOES BRAUN'S CROWN WANT TO LEAD US? - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “The most important context of Saturday's event is different. Bartosz Kopczyński, one of Korona's leading ideologues, outlined it during one of the panels. He said that 'The European Union, the UN, and NATO are fatally destructive to Poland, they are aiming for our liquidation, and they want to throw us into a suicidal attack on Russia'. Therefore, we must abandon our current alliances and 'establish cooperation with Russia and China'. There were more such voices, which are in fact a manifesto of national betrayal. Moscow's inspiration for this movement is obvious. Given the military threat from Russia, this is a real danger. Braun's party is placing the Polish crown on the double-headed eagle. The Targowica Confederation is growing before our eyes.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32569987,kierunek-chiny-i-rosja-dokad-nas-chce-prowadzic-korona-brauna.html
-- THE FAR-RIGHT IS NOT A MARGIN - KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “The Highlander folk costumes or military attire worn with absolute seriousness by the congress participants, the solemn religious setting of the event, might have evoked aesthetic dissonance or amusement. However, the views and demands expressed there, although close to fantasy, certainly sound menacing. What's worse, they are also resonant. According to recent CBOS polls, 9.8 percent of respondents would vote for Braun's party. This means an increase in support of 2.8 percentage points compared to the December poll.”
-- GIVEN THE SUPPORT THEY ENJOY AND THE WEAKNESS OF PIS, IT CAN BE EXPECTED THAT THEY WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE POLITICAL SCENE - SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN FURTHER IN KL: “Polexit is not the only dangerous slogan of the far-right. The pro-Russian stance expressed openly at KKP, and indirectly at Konfederacja through opposition to aiding Ukraine, is also a threat to our security. Not because there is a real possibility of these parties influencing Polish policy towards Russia in the near future – for now, their politicians do not hold power. However, given the support they enjoy and the weakness of PiS, it can be expected that they will have a significant influence on the right side of the political scene.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2026/02/03/czy-grozi-nam-polexit/
-- THE CONCERNS THAT TRIGGER EUROSEPCISM SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY - BEN STANLEY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “The concerns that trigger euroscepticism should be taken seriously. A feeling of powerlessness against Brussels directives, climate policy, and the impression of a disconnect between EU priorities and Polish interests. However, the survey results showing increased support for Polexit should be treated skeptically.”
-- POLISH EUROSEPCISM CURRENTLY OPERATES UNDER CONDITIONS OF SECURITY – MEMBERSHIP IS GUARANTEED, ALLOWING FOR THE EXPRESSION OF DISSATISFACTION WITHOUT RISK - STANLEY FURTHER IN KL: “Polish euroscepticism currently operates under conditions of security – membership is guaranteed, allowing for the expression of dissatisfaction without the risk of real consequences. The British experience suggests that if Polexit became a real prospect, the thermostat could react just as dramatically.”
-- THE GROWTH OF A SIGNIFICANT EUROSEPCIC ELECTORATE, EVEN IF DRIVEN BY "THERMOSTATIC DYNAMICS," CREATES POLITICAL FACTS - STANLEY FURTHER: “None of the above means that the change in Polish attitudes is illusory or unimportant. The growth of a significant eurosceptic electorate, even if driven by 'thermostatic dynamics,' creates political facts. And these shape party competition and debates about individual politicians.”
-- WE SHOULD SERIOUSLY CONSIDER THE SUBSTANTIVE POLITICAL CONCERNS AGGREGATED BY EUROSEPCIC SENTIMENT - STANLEY'S CONCLUSION IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “We should seriously consider the substantive political concerns that eurosceptic sentiment aggregates. The feeling of powerlessness against Brussels directives, the distributive consequences of climate policy, and the perceived disconnect between EU priorities and Polish interests. However, skepticism towards survey results also requires attention, as they tell us more about the current political temperature than about where Poles actually want their country to be.”https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2026/02/03/czy-polacy-chca-polexitu/
-- THE KORONA GATHERING IN ŁOCHOWO WAS A STRONG INDICATION THAT THE FAR-RIGHT HAS ACHIEVED AN ORGANIZATIONAL CAPABILITY THAT IT HAS PROBABLY NEVER HAD IN THE THIRD REPUBLIC - WOJCIECH SZACKI ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA'S PORTAL: “Saturday's Korona gathering in Łochowo at the Congress of National Economic and Local Government Initiatives (KINGS) was, however, a strong indication that the far-right has achieved an organizational capability that it has probably never had in the Third Republic. Indeed, it was – among other things – a festival of kitsch. Everything was exaggerated and theatricalized; the paramilitary fighters guarding order, the black-clad Kamraci Brothers, the start of the event with a trio of anthem – prayer – carol, the now ritualistic slogans like eurocollective, Jew-communism, Judenratization of Poland, fire extinguisher symbols, and bombastic speeches. But kitsch has many fans.”
-- KORONA IS CAPABLE OF ORGANIZING A LARGE AND CLEVERLY PROFILED CONVENTION - SZACKI FURTHER: “Korona is capable of organizing a large and cleverly profiled convention. It was aimed at small and medium-sized entrepreneurs who, in addition to far-right views, also have economic, social, and security demands. The event was efficiently conducted, with twelve panels held in four rooms. Topics ranged from freedom of speech through demographics (nurseries are bad because they make it easier for women to return to the labor market) to security and energy. This is clearly an element of competition with Konfederacja.”
-- KORONA IS FINALLY CAPABLE – IT SEEMS – OF CULTIVATING ITS OWN, DISTINCT ELECTORATE - SZACKI'S CONCLUSION: “Korona is finally capable – it seems – of cultivating its own, distinct electorate. Which dislikes both PiS and Konfederacja. These people came to Łochowo, saw that there were many of them, believed in their strength, and were probably reinforced in their views.”https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2330689,1,notatnik-polityczny-dokad-zmierza-braun-i-jego-fani-kluczowe-pytania-i-wnioski-po-weekendzie.read
-- THE PRESIDENT IS CONDUCTING A POLITICAL GAME WHERE THE GOAL IS NOT COMPROMISE, BUT TO SHOW STRENGTH AND CONTROL OVER THE ENTIRE POLITICAL SCENE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “But the criticism stemmed from the fact that they deciphered the president's game and decided not to participate in the spectacle he was directing. Because in it, there is only one lead actor. And neither Lewica nor KO have any reason to play for Nawrocki. Because the president here is not a mediator or an independent arbiter. He is not seeking cooperation with the ruling coalition. He is firmly building his position, trying to elbow his way in and expand the scope of his power.”https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43739751-michal-szuldrzynski-gra-o-tron-prezydent-karol-nawrocki-chce-udowodnic-ze-jest-szefem-wszystkich-szefow
-- BIRTHDAYS: Zbigniew Rau, Andrzej Kosiniak-Kamysz, Michał Kołodziejczyk, Błażej Poboży, Rafał Muchacki.
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