Today's State of Play
-- KIERWIŃSKI SUGGESTS HOŁOWNIA FOR DEPUTY MARSHAL OF THE SEJM, THE 45TH SEJM SESSION WILL BEGIN AT 11:00 AM WITH THE ELECTION OF THE MARSHAL OF THE SEJM - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live#
-- ACCORDING TO POLLS, WE HAVE RETURNED TO THE STATE OF PLAY FROM 2015 AND 2019. WITHOUT A CHANGE IN POLICY, THE ELECTION RESULTS WILL BE THE SAME AS THEN. OR WORSE - PIOTR PACEWICZ: “The center-left bloc has returned to losing elections. Current support for the center-left bloc is 48.9%, which is almost exactly the same as in the 2015 and 2019 elections. So, were the 2023 elections a unique surge towards a more democratic state, fueled by rebellion against the PiS government? And is the combined result of the three parties of the October 15th Coalition of 53.7% unrepeatable? As late as April 2025, support for Civic Coalition, Third Way, and The Left reached a relatively safe 51.7%.”
-- HOWEVER, THE CURRENT SUCCESS OF CIVIC COALITION ONLY GIVES A LONG BENCH IN THE SEJM OPPOSITION - CONTINUES PACEWICZ: “Civic Coalition managed to get through Trzaskowski’s electoral defeat unscathed, without undertaking even a trace of settlement, and it has a success. However, it only provides a long bench in the Sejm opposition. In the Sejm elected today, the three right-wing forces (PiS and both Confederation parties) would have 259 seats and a huge advantage over Civic Coalition and The Left (201 seats).”
-- AS MUCH AS 50.2% OF THE VOTES FOR THE BROADLY UNDERSTOOD RIGHT-WING, AND ONLY 45.4% SUPPORT FOR THE COALITION - CONTINUES PACEWICZ: “As can be seen, today's power balance would give as much as 50.2% of the votes for the broadly understood right-wing in the elections: PiS + Confederation Liberty and Independence + Confederation of the Polish Crown, i.e., Grzegorz Braun's anti-Semitic and anti-Ukrainian party, which tells tales from Piast dynasty Polish history, and at the same time repeats the theses of Kremlin propaganda. Civic Coalition would be exceptionally strong today in the elections (34.6%), The Left at its typical recent level (6.9%), Poland 2050 and the Polish People's Party would have fallen deeply below the threshold. This means only 45.4% support for the October 15th Coalition. Together, it has its 3.5%. There was slightly more after Adrian Zandberg's electoral success, but as usual, the party and its leader rested on their laurels.”
-- THE WAR OVER THE PAST CREATES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE FAR-RIGHT, WHICH REPEATS THAT BOTH TUSK AND KACZYŃSKI MUST BE REJECTED - CONTINUES PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “The war over the past creates an opportunity for the far-right, which repeats that both Tusk and Kaczyński must be rejected. Nawrocki also demands effective government, not questioning PiS laws.”
-- THIS TIME, HOWEVER, A BROAD FRONT TO DEFEND POLISH DEMOCRACY AGAINST RIGHT-WING POPULISM AND ANTI-EU POLICY MADNESS SEEMS TO BE EMERGING - PACEWICZ'S CONCLUSION IN OKO.PRESS: “OKO.press consistently criticized such a concept during the 2023 election campaign as counterproductive at the time. This time, however, a broad front to defend Polish democracy against right-wing populism and the madness of anti-EU policies and the cultural war with the West, waged in defense, as President Nawrocki recently put it, of ‘national being,’ seems to be emerging.”
https://oko.press/kaczynski-jak-dr-frankenstein-ko-w-pulapce-sukcesu-czy-prawica-musi-wygrac-w-2027-r-sondaze
-- SHOULD THE HEAD OF SUCH A POLITICALLY SENSITIVE MINISTRY MAKE SUCH COMMENTS? IT CAN BE TREATED AS UNACCEPTABLE PRESSURE ON THE COURT - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “The recording is making impressive reach and fueling discussion. But should the head of such a politically sensitive ministry make such comments? It could be treated as unacceptable pressure on the court to agree to Ziobro's arrest. As Attorney General and supervisor of the courts, Żurek should exercise extreme restraint. After Ziobro’s immunity was lifted, the ball is in the court of the prosecution and the court, and politicians – and a minister is, willy-nilly – should no longer interfere, as it gives fuel to those who claim that the trial of the PiS politician will be politicized. But what’s the point of commentators criticizing when Żurek’s voters adore him?”
-- PERHAPS THE REBORN CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL WILL HELP IN PUTTING THINGS IN ORDER, BECAUSE AT THE BEGINNING OF 2027, MEMBERS OF THE CT ELECTED IN THIS SEJM TERM WILL HAVE A MAJORITY - CONTINUES WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Perhaps the reborn Constitutional Tribunal will help in putting things in order, because at the beginning of 2027, members of the CT elected in this Sejm term will have a majority. And this opens the door to revoking the immunity of its president, Bogdan Święczkowski – one of Ziobro’s closest associates, national prosecutor for almost the entire period of PiS rule – and to initiating disciplinary proceedings. And then the Tribunal will operate on a different basis and may – in a legal manner – assess the regulations concerning neo-judges in the Supreme Court.”
-- ŻUREK CAN ALREADY ANNOUNCE PERSONAL VICTORY: HE CONTRIBUTED TO THE FALL OF THE CONVICTION THAT PIS AND CONFEDERATION WILL DEFINITELY TAKE POWER AFTER THE 2027 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS - CONTINUES WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “But regardless of how the rule of law unfolds, Waldemar Żurek can already announce a personal victory: he contributed to the fall of the conviction that PiS and Confederation will definitely take power after the 2027 parliamentary elections. The ball is in play, and every scenario – including Donald Tusk retaining power – is possible.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32399997,wyborcy-w-terenie-chca-rozmawiac-tylko-o-zurku-bo-go-uwielbiaja.html
-- ALMOST HALF OF POLES BELIEVE THAT THE SITUATION IN HEALTHCARE HAS WORSENED IN THE PAST YEAR – ACCORDING TO AN IBRIS POLL FOR RZ: “Almost half of Poles believe that the situation in healthcare has worsened in the past year – according to an IBRiS poll for ‘Rzeczpospolita’. Only 5.5% of respondents considered the situation to be better than a year ago, and 8.9% indicated that they had no opinion on the matter. At the same time, a significant group of respondents did not notice either a deterioration or an improvement in the state of healthcare.”
https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art43346591-sondaz-polacy-oceniaja-stan-ochrony-zdrowia-alarmujacy-sygnal-dla-rzadu
-- KPO FOR POLAND. WE HAVE TO SPEND 60 BILLION EUROS BY AUGUST. IT'S UNLIKELY TO SUCCEED - JOANNA SOLSKA IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The biggest barrier is administrative inefficiency. We don’t even know what we’ve managed to achieve, and where we are lost. (...) There are less than 10 months left to utilize 60 billion euros, and yet we don’t even know what we’ve managed to achieve, and where we are lost. And it may turn out that despite the hurried ‘burning’ of money, we have achieved little of the goals for which it was intended.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/rynek/2321487,1,kpo-dla-polski-60-miliardow-euro-musimy-wydac-do-sierpnia-raczej-sie-nie-uda.read
-- KOD WAS ESTABLISHED 10 YEARS AGO.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Jurgiel, Aleksandra Zarzycka.
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