Today's State of Play

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Machowski: Polls are even less favorable for the coalition than presidential election results; Kęskrawiec: Is the Tusk government in a slump, or will it survive the winter at all? GW: New Left, Old Methods in Appointing Positions

-- APOLOGIZE AND REMAIN SILENT - STERCZEWSKI ON THE FRONT PAGE OF FAKT: “Impertinent MP Sterczewski blames Polish services for the death of a Polish soldier at the border”.
 

-- PRZYDZACZ: VON DER LEYEN DOES NOT WANT TO SEND US MIGRANTS THIS YEAR, BUT WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN A YEAR OR TWO - 300LIVEhttps://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2025-10-14/

-- 31% OF RESPONDENTS CLAIM THEIR LIVES ARE WORSE, WHILE 12% FEEL AN IMPROVEMENT - OPINIA24 FOR RMF FM: Over 40% of Poles believe their situation has not changed since the coalition took power. 31% of respondents state their lives are worse, while 12% feel an improvement. Only 6% of Law and Justice voters and 2% of Confederation supporters notice an improvement in their standard of living after two years of the October 15th coalition government.
https://www.rmf24.pl/fakty/news-dwa-lata-rzadow-donalda-tuska-polacy-ocenili-w-sondazu-dla-r,nId,8030058

-- DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT IS IN A SLUMP. TWO YEARS AFTER THE ELECTION, DISAPPOINTMENT HAS SET IN. THE COALITION, WITH WHICH GREAT HOPES WERE PLACED, IS TODAY PLAGUED BY SUCH A DEEP CRISIS THAT WE WONDER IF IT WILL SURVIVE THE WINTER AT ALL? - MAREK KĘSKRAWIEC IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Donald Tusk's government is in a slump. Two years after the election, disappointment has set in. Why is the October 15th coalition, with which great hopes were placed, today plagued by such a deep crisis that we wonder if it will survive the winter at all? Only one government has disappointed its voters more than Donald Tusk's team. That was Leszek Miller's cabinet, which after two years was already dying as a minority government, marked by the Rywin affair and the Starachowice scandal.”

-- FOR MANY CITIZENS, IT IS A RETURN TO THE STORY OF THE "GREEN ISLAND" THAT THEY DID NOT SEE IN THEIR WALLETS - KĘSKRAWIEC CONTINUES WRITING IN TYGODNIK: “However, using the ideas of predecessors and the rather unsuccessful attempts to reverse Ziobro's 'deforms' have not proven particularly exciting for voters, especially with rising bills and a median income of PLN 5300 net. So when the Prime Minister talks about stifling PiS inflation and Poland's entry into the G20, for many citizens it's a return to the story of the 'green island' that they didn't see in their wallets.”

-- INCONSISTENCY OF THE OVERGROWN CABINET, AS WELL AS THE LACK OF A CLEAR VISION OF WHERE IT IS HEADING - KĘSKRAWIEC FURTHER: “I dare to claim, however, that society has long forgotten the most controversial events, such as the storming of public television, the change of prosecution leadership, or the police action in the Presidential Palace. Support for the government, according to surveys, has collapsed mainly due to the failure to fulfill most promises, internal conflicts, and the inconsistency of the overgrown cabinet, as well as the lack of a clear vision of where it is heading.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/rzad-donalda-tuska-w-dolku-dwa-lata-po-wyborach-przyszlo-rozczarowanie-191955

-- ONLY INTEGRATION CAN SAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT COALITION - ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “If the disintegration process of the October 15th Coalition is not halted and reversed, then in 2027, Democrats may not be saved even by winning the majority of votes. Nationalists will still gain more mandates and take power.”

-- IN THE CURRENT POLLS, THE PROPORTION OF VOTES THAT THESE TWO POLITICAL CAMPS CAN COUNT ON IS EVEN LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEMOCRATS THAN THE RESULT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - MACHOWSKI FURTHER. 

-- WE MUST ACCEPT HOW THE D'HONDT SYSTEM WORKS AND REPLACE THE CURRENT PROCESS OF DISINTEGRATION OF THE OCTOBER 15TH COALITION WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL INTEGRATION - MACHOWSKI FURTHER IN GW: “Democrats – if they truly do not want nationalists to take power in Poland in 2027 (especially if nationalist parties gain fewer votes than parties from the democratic camp) – must, starting today, two years before the elections, take actions that significantly increase their chances of winning a majority of mandates in the next election. Theoretically, they have two options. But only one of them is realistic – we must accept how the D'Hondt system works and replace the current process of disintegration of the October 15th Coalition with at least partial integration.”

-- THEORETICALLY, THEY CAN REACH FOR THE SECOND OPTION – WHICH IS TO CHANGE THE ELECTORAL LAW: REPLACING THE D'HONDT METHOD WITH THE SAINTE-LAGUË METHOD - MACHOWSKI FURTHER IN GW: “If, however, Democrats are incapable of integration, they can theoretically reach for the second option – which is to change the electoral law: replacing the D'Hondt method (which gives parties with high support more mandates than would result from the proportion of votes, and parties with low support fewer mandates) with the Sainte-Laguë method (under which the proportion of obtained mandates roughly corresponds to the proportion of votes gained). The distribution of mandates by the Sainte-Laguë method is shown in chart B5. Five lists of Democrats (with a combined 52 percent support) obtain 235 mandates (51.1 percent), and three lists of nationalists (with a combined 48 percent support) – 225 mandates (48.9 percent).”

-- GENTLEMEN, WHAT DO YOU INTEND TO DO TO NOT HAND POLAND OVER TO NATIONALISTS? - MACHOWSKI FURTHER: “The elections are already (not only) two years away. It is worth asking Donald Tusk, Włodzimierz Czarzasty, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Szymon Hołownia, Adrian Zandberg – gentlemen, what do you intend to do to not hand Poland over to nationalists? Just, for God's sake, don't say that 'we won't lack sabers' and 'it will somehow work out'.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32320108,wybory-2027-realna-grozba-recydywy-pis.html

-- TODAY, MORE AND MORE INDICATES THAT WHETHER THE CIVIC COALITION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REMAIN IN POWER AFTER THE 2027 ELECTIONS WILL BE DECIDED BY DONALD TUSK'S ABILITY TO STEP BACK - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “If the polls do not change, Donald Tusk will face a choice – either remain the face of the Civic Coalition and the government and deprive his party of its coalition potential regarding the Confederation, or withdraw and make way for Radosław Sikorski.”

-- THE CIVIC COALITION WITH TUSK WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE FOR A COALITION WITH THE ECONOMICALLY ULTRALIBERAL CONFEDERATION - BARTKIEWICZ FURTHER: “Law and Justice, with its statist approach to the economy and the role of the state in citizens' lives, is on a collision course with the ultraliberal worldview of the Confederation. And here, the Civic Coalition could seek its chance. But it will not do so with Donald Tusk at its head.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43170131-artur-bartkiewicz-donald-tusk-moze-odebrac-ko-zdolnosc-koalicyjna

-- WE HAVE A NEW GOVERNMENT, AND NOTHING HAS MOVED IN EDUCATION. WE HAVE HEALTH EDUCATION, NEW REGULATIONS, AND TEACHERS GET NOTHING FROM IT - TEACHER'S STATEMENT IN KAROLINA SŁOWIK'S ARTICLE IN GW: “Arkadiusz Janowski, a teacher of Polish language, history, and philosophy at the School Complex in Płoty, says he used to find satisfaction in his profession. 'Now it's less so,' he admits. 'We have a new government, and nothing has moved in education. We have health education, new regulations, and teachers get nothing from it. There are more and more duties, one works, but there is no financial satisfaction,' he complains. 'Perhaps after 25 years of work, it's natural, this professional burnout. One wonders what else they can do, but whatever they do, the school stands still,' he adds.”

-- HOW TO RECONCILE THE ENORMOUS EXPECTATIONS OF PARENTS WITH THE DECREASING SKILLS OF CHILDREN. TODAY, SEVEN-YEAR-OLDS DON'T KNOW HOW TO PUT ON A JACKET OR TIE SHOES - FURTHER IN KAROLINA SŁOWIK'S ARTICLE IN GW: “For example, how to reconcile the enormous expectations of parents with the decreasing skills of children. Today, seven-year-olds don't know how to put on a jacket or tie their shoes. When I started working at school, it was different. And parents' attitudes were different too. Now, if a child can't read, the parent writes a letter to the principal requesting additional reading lessons. They won't think of practicing with the child at home. And if you don't practice, you won't know. No one has invented anything better yet,' she says.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32320672,dzis-dzien-edukacji-narodowej-zapytalismy-nauczycieli-co-sadza.html

-- NEW LEFT, OLD METHODS. TO HIRE THEIR OWN PEOPLE, PARTY NOMINEES ARE EVEN DISMISSING PROTECTED UNION MEMBERS AT OHP - MARCIN NAPIERAŁA IN GW: “Union members who have worked at the Voluntary Labour Corps for even 30 years are receiving disciplinary dismissals from day to day. Lawyers say this is illegal, but the provincial commanders of the corps, politically appointed by the Left, pay no attention to it.”
https://koszalin.wyborcza.pl/koszalin/7,179397,32317978,jak-ludzie-lewicy-pozbywaja-sie-zwiazkowcow-w-ohp-to-panstwo.html

-- IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESIST THE IMPRESSION THAT THE PROSECUTION IN THE KUCZMIEROWSKI CASE IS PLAYING FOR TIME AND DESIRES A MEDIA SPECTACLE RATHER THAN A RESOLUTION OF THE MATTER - PIOTR SZYMANIAK AND MACIEJ MIŁOSZ IN RZ: “Despite the fact that the former head of RARS offered to testify, the prosecution was not interested. According to some lawyers, it is difficult to resist the impression that the prosecution is playing for time and desires a media spectacle rather than a resolution of the matter.”

-- THIS IS HOW YOU ACT WHEN YOU WANT TO CHASE BUT NOT CATCH – COMMENTS AN ANONYMOUS PROSECUTOR IN THE RZ ARTICLE: “– Apparently, there are idiots working at the National Prosecutor's Office – states one experienced prosecutor bluntly. – A letter of ironclad guarantee would have ensured his extradition to Poland and the possibility of continuing the proceedings. This is how you act when you want to chase but not catch him – comments the prosecutor.”
https://www.rp.pl/prawo-karne/art43170531-prokuratura-nie-chce-przesluchac-michala-kuczmierowskiego-wola-gonic-kroliczka

-- BIRTHDAYS: Tomasz Sawczuk, Grzegorz Czelej, Lech Chęciński.