state of play: 09/12/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Is Tusk Back? A New Political Situation Favors the Premier, But Will It Halt the Tyranny of Autumn's 'Horror Receipts'?

Łukasz Mężyk

-- "IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN NEUTRALIZED." PRZYDACZ ON TRUMP'S WORDS TO NAWROCKI - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/09/12/

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-- DRONES APPEAR TO BE A GAMECHANGER FOR NOW. 

-- DONALD TUSK IS IMPLEMENTING FURTHER POINTS IN HIS MILITARY-STYLE VISITS: yesterday he visited a military base, today metalworks. Further similar visits can likely be expected in the coming days. 

-- AS CAN BE SEEN, THE PRIME MINISTER IS SKILLFULLY ADOPTING HIS WELL-KNOWN CRISIS SCHEME FROM A DECADE AGO - similar to last year's flood, which occurred almost exactly a year ago. The Prime Minister then halted the decline in his party's popularity and reversed the government's downward trend for three months. 

-- DURING HIS SPEECH IN THE SEJM and around the National Security Bureau, PDT closed off fronts of direct confrontation with the President. 

-- TUSK HAS BOUND THE PRESIDENT WITH A MESSAGE OF UNITY. Think tanks on the right may be surprised by the tone of the BBN chief Sławomir Cenckiewicz's tweet praising the deputy head of the Ministry of National Defence, Cezary Tomczyk, who nevertheless delivers a jab of irony at the US President. 

-- THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMP HAS DECIDED TO "SAW OFF" THE COURSE emphasizing its distinctiveness from Ukraine's policy, but emerging network surveys show that public sentiment on this issue has not decreased, and perhaps has even escalated slightly. 

-- SIKORSKI HAS STOPPED SETTING THE TONE. Tusk now appears to be a peacemaker between the presidential wing and the hawkish, anti-presidential wing of the government represented by the Minister of Foreign Affairs. 

-- PDT NO LONGER HAS TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT THE BUDGET, deficit, personal assistance, excise duty, bank tax, CPK, etc. The government has closed the matter of the Ukrainian veto and – despite criticism from left-wing circles – is limiting the 800+ program. 

-- HOWEVER, THE FEELING OF AN IMPENDING DIFFICULT AUTUMN HANGS OVER EVERYTHING, with emerging signals of possible increases in energy carriers, social tension, and negative signals from the labor market. 

-- THE PRIME MINISTER'S NEW POLITICAL SITUATION MAY THEREFORE PROVIDE SPACE FOR "TAKING A BREATH" and regrouping, but it may not be enough to halt the erosion of the ruling camp in public opinion by the beginning of 2026 – but today – it certainly buys time. 

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-- DOMAŃSKI'S HALLUCINATIONS. THE BUDGET WILL EARN "A FEW LOW BILLIONS" BY TAKING AWAY 800+ FROM CHILDREN - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: "Using government estimates, we calculate that by taking away 800+ from foreign children, the budget might 'gain' a mere 240 million PLN. And even this is a superficial gain that does not account for the dire social consequences of this policy. The 'few low billions' that the finance minister fantasizes about wouldn't even be collected if the benefit were taken away from everyone."
https://oko.press/halucynacje-domanskiego-budzet-zarobi-kilka-niskich-miliardow-na-zabraniu-dzieciom-800

-- BELARUS RELEASES 52 PRISONERS. LUKASHENKO IS FIGHTING FOR TRUMP'S FAVOR - RUSLAN SZOSZYN IN RZ: "The leader who pushes opponents abroad does not intend to carry out democratic reforms or ease repression. He is already trying to find his place in the post-war arrangement and extend his rule for years to come."
https://www.rp.pl/dyplomacja/art42996671-ruslan-szoszyn-bialorus-uwalnia-52-wiezniow-lukaszenko-walczy-o-wzgledy-trumpa

-- IF A REFERENDUM WERE ORGANIZED FOR THE BIGGEST FAILURE OF THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION, THE STATE OF PUBLIC MEDIA COULD BE AMONG THE LEADERS - NEWSWEEK EDITOR-IN-CHIEF MICHAŁ SZATKOWSKI: "If a referendum were organized for the biggest failure of the October 15 coalition, the state of public media could be among the leaders, alongside the lack of accountability and the impossibility of fixing the justice system."
https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/to-jedna-z-najwiekszych-porazek-rzadu-problem-jest-glebszy/qqmbgsz

-- 36 YEARS AGO, the Sejm granted a vote of confidence to the government of Tadeusz Mazowiecki, the first non-communist Prime Minister in Poland's post-war history.

-- 95TH ANNIVERSARY OF PIOTR SKRZYŃECKI'S BIRTH.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Adam Bielan turns 51, Bogusław Liberadzki, Eugeniusz Czykwin, Lidia Geringer de Oedenberg, Wojciech Jagielski, Barbara Dolniak, Anna Dryjańska.
 


Łukasz Mężyk