state of play: 09/08/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Godusławski: Government Gets a Yellow Card; Gadomski: Job Cuts Comparable to Early Pandemic Levels; Naszkowska: Farmers Have Reasons to Worry

Łukasz Mężyk

— BIELAN: THE POLISH TAXPAYER PAID ONE MILLION ZLOTYS FOR A PRIZE FUNDED BY SIKORSKI, JUST FOR A 10-MINUTE CONVERSATION IN SOME HOTEL IN MIAMI – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/09/08/

— RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA ON THE OFFENSIVE – PRESIDENT'S SPOKESPERSON ON NEWSWEEK COVER: “Useful idiots, aimlessly wandering in the mists of absurdity, have long gone beyond all measure. If payment could be made in rubles, the entire print run would sell out”.
https://x.com/LeskiewiczRafa/status/1964810198322905105

— DO YOU WANT TO HOUND THEM? – on the cover, a photomontage: President Nawrocki expelling a Ukrainian child from Poland – IN DAWID KARPIUK'S TEXT: “They are increasingly called Banderites. Or they hear: 'You're in Poland, so speak Polish. You're not at home here'”.
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/spoleczenstwo/ukraincy-w-polsce-zaczynaja-sie-bac-poszly-w-ruch-piesci/t2hdghr

— PRESIDENT IN THE POLISH NATIONAL TEAM'S LOCKER ROOM AFTER A WINNING MATCH AGAINST FINLAND: https://www.sport.pl/pilka/7,65037,32232723,karol-nawrocki-pojawil-sie-w-szatni-polakow-oto-co-powiedzial.html

— CIVIC PLATFORM ANNOUNCED IT IS FIGHTING TRANSPORT EXCLUSION AMONG YOUNG POLES. THIS IS HOW THE PROPOSAL TO ALLOW DRIVING LICENSES FROM AGE 17 WAS DESCRIBED – GAZETA.PL:
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/polityka/7,198012,32232520,po-chce-walczyc-z-wykluczeniem-komunikacyjnym-ale-nie-wie.html

— TOTAL LAYOFFS IN 2025 COULD REACH 80,000 PEOPLE, WHICH IS DOUBLE THE 2024 FIGURE AND COMPARABLE TO THE SCALE OF EMPLOYMENT REDUCTIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PANDEMIC – WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “The Bureau of Investment and Economic Cycles (BIEC) reported a few days ago that in August, the Labor Market Index (WRP), which provides advance information on future changes in unemployment levels, increased by 1 point. The WRP forecasts changes in the labor market. If it rises, a certain increase in unemployment can be expected. Although it is still very low, according to estimates, total layoffs in 2025 could reach 80,000 people, which is double the 2024 figure and comparable to the scale of employment reductions at the beginning of the pandemic”.

— INVESTMENT RATE FALLS FOR THE SECOND YEAR IN A ROW, THIS YEAR IT SEEMS WE ARE HEADING FOR AN UNENVIABLE RECORD OF THE 35-YEAR HISTORY OF THE THIRD REPUBLIC OF POLAND – GADOMSKI CONTINUES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “The investment rate is falling for the second year in a row. It also fell during the PiS government's tenure, although it rose in 2023. The Civic Coalition rightly considered this decline (from 20.4 percent of GDP in 2015 to 16.4 percent in 2022) as proof of the previous government's economic policy failure. The Coalition promised a rapid increase in expenditures, but meanwhile, in 2024, the investment rate fell from 17.9 percent of GDP to 16.9 percent of GDP, and this year it seems we are heading for an unenviable record of the 35-year history of the Third Republic of Poland”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32230596,robmy-gospodarke-nie-propagande.html

— DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT RECEIVED A YELLOW CARD – BARTEK GODUSŁAWSKI IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “It's hard to expect investors, after our rating outlook was lowered to negative, to suddenly turn away from Polish government bonds or start divesting our currency. However, the state of public finances is already on the radar of rating agencies. Fitch explicitly stated that the direction of fiscal policy is incorrect. In two weeks, we await an assessment from another rating agency – Moody’s.
https://businessinsider.com.pl/finanse/rating-polski-zagrozony-politycy-moga-jeszcze-zawrocic-z-tej-drogi-opinia/cyf1vpt

— DEBATE ON MERCOSUR AND ANOTHER GRAIN CRISIS. FARMERS' TEMPERATURES ARE RISING – KRYSTYNA NASZKOWSKA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Farmers are convinced that they will pay for saving the European automotive, pharmaceutical, and home appliance industries (German, as right-wing politicians suggest to farmers). Yes, there are protective clauses, but in their opinion, these are just eyewash. And they may be largely right, as the clauses were not included in the agreement adopted by the Union itself. And it is not at all clear how they will be activated.

— FARMERS THUS HAVE REASON TO WORRY, BUT THE QUESTION IS, CAN ONE GROUP BLOCK AN AGREEMENT THAT IS BENEFICIAL FOR THE MAJORITY? – NASZKOWSKA CONTINUES: “Anyway, on this occasion, it is worth considering whether we need to tighten standards here, which make EU agriculture lose out in this competition, if we simultaneously allow food from countries where its production takes place under completely different rules than in the EU onto our tables”.
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,177151,32228341,rozprawa-z-merosur-i-kolejny-kryzys-zbozowy-rolnikom-podnosi.html

— POLISH AGRICULTURE COULD LOSE THE MOST IN THE EU DUE TO THE MERCOSUR AGREEMENT. OTHERS WILL GAIN – ALEKSANDRA PTAK-IGLEWSKA IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “Polish agriculture is the most exposed among EU countries to competition from Mercosur countries, according to an analysis by Bank Pekao. Politicians promise to fight for farmers' interests during the vote in the Council. The EC sees benefits for our country”.
https://www.rp.pl/rolnictwo/art42967691-polskie-rolnictwo-moze-na-umowie-z-mercosur-stracic-najwiecej-w-ue-inni-zyskaja

— MERCOSUR WITHOUT PANIC. AN AGREEMENT FROM WHICH POLISH INDUSTRY WILL GAIN, AND AGRICULTURE WILL NOT LOSE – PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “The trade agreement with the Mercosur group of countries will therefore be beneficial for Poland, as potential losses for agricultural producers will be more than compensated by an increase in industrial production. Critics of the agreement argue that it is primarily in Germany's interest because they are an industrial power. However, it so happens that Poland has exactly the same share of industry in value added as Germany (23 percent). So why should it pay off for Germans but not for Poles?”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/swiat/mercosur-umowa-polska-przemysl-rolnictwo/

— MAGA IS TO BE AN EXPORT PRODUCT FOR THE EUROPEAN MARKET, NOT JUST FOR DOMESTIC USE IN AMERICA. IN POLAND, IT FOUND A GOOD BASE FOR A LOGISTICS HUB – KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Patting Nawrocki on the back, shaking his hand with conviction, and declaring support, Trump does little from his side. But apparently, this is enough to gain the most loyal political ally in the European Union. In relations with Poland, reliant on the help of NATO troops in case of an attack by neighboring Russia and Belarus, such a declaration of friendship has the value of currency”.

— NAWROCKI WILL RETURN STRENGTHENED PRIMARILY IN DOMESTIC POLITICS – SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN CONTINUES: “However, it has much greater political significance, this time in our domestic market. Because from his visit to the White House, Nawrocki will return strengthened primarily in domestic politics. He met with the US president before his first month in office as President of Poland had passed”.

— NAWROCKI BEHAVED AS HE SHOULD. NEITHER TOO SERVILE NOR TOO DOMINEERING. HE DID NOT BOW TOO DEEPLY, NOR DID HE SPREAD HIMSELF EXCESSIVELY IN HIS CHAIR, MAINTAINING THE DEMEANOR OF A SELF-ASSURED LEADER AWARE OF HIS BOUNDARIES – SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN WRITES IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “At the joint press conference, he had to endure not attracting much interest from journalists, with most questions and answers unrelated to his visit. However, whenever an opportunity arose to answer, he seized it. And he did it well. This was one of his first visits after taking office. He could have failed, due to lack of experience. But he was well prepared”.
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2025/09/04/skrzydlowska-kalukin-moj-przyjaciel-prawicowy-populista/

— BIRTHDAYS: Zofia Wojtkowska, Jerzy Szmit, Ewa Żmuda-Trzebiatowska.


Łukasz Mężyk