state of play: 09/06/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Morawiecki Explains His Centrist Policy. Opening the Door for PiS to Return Closer to 35%?, Szefernaker: Foreign Policy Held Hostage by Sikorski's Rivalry with Tusk for the Seat

Łukasz Mężyk

— I APPEAL FOR SERIOUSNESS, MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS, CYCLING SELFIE UNDER THE BUILDINGS OF OUR PARTNER'S ADMINISTRATION, THIS IS NOT THE RIGHT WAY – PRESIDENT KAROL NAWROCKI TO MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI: “I have no opportunity to address your Washington album in any other form, but I appeal for seriousness. Our relations with the USA are a fundamentally important matter for Poland. Minister of Foreign Affairs, taking selfies under the buildings of our partner's administration, is not the right way. Please, for a moment, forget about emotions, about our internal politics, about your trip album. Please adjust your armor and represent a serious partner, the USA – Poland, with due seriousness. This is not a matter of your personal well-being, however unsettling it may be. These are matters of state. I believe that as soon as I find the time, and you have calmed down a bit, we will meet for a serious conversation about the disturbing state of Polish diplomacy – including in the USA, where we have not had an Ambassador for a long time.”
https://x.com/NawrockiKn/status/1964233562577645625

— PIŁSUDSKI'S LEGION AND TOGETHER WITH SOME OF THE BEST RESULTS IN CBOS THIS YEAR, KO AND KONFEDERACJA WITH THE WORST RATINGS THIS YEAR:
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/flashe_tekst.php?nr=45/2025

— LOWEST RESULTS FOR TUSK'S GOVERNMENT IN CBOS – ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI: “The CBOS data regarding support for the government in August (30% support) passed with little fanfare, and it also represents the lowest ratings for this government in CBOS polls.”
https://x.com/LukasPawlowski/status/1963926206375399445

— IN AUGUST, CBOS NOTED A 2 PERCENTAGE POINT DROP IN GOVERNMENT SUPPORTERS – TO 30 PERCENT.
https://businessinsider.com.pl/wiadomosci/sondaz-cbos-tak-wyglada-poparcie-dla-donalda-tuska-i-rzadu-sierpien-2025/3jr3dfb

— MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI DURING THE WEEK: HE PARTICIPATED IN A DEBATE WITH MENTZEN, SPOKE IN KARPACZ ABOUT NEW INDUSTRIAL BASTIONS IN SOUTHERN POLAND AND A PLAN FOR CHEAP ENERGY, AND IN A DEBATE WITH ZANDBERG EXPLAINED HIS CENTRIST POLICY.

— MORAWIECKI EXPLAINED THE PHILOSOPHY OF HIS POLICY – THE MIDDLE WAY, BECAUSE SOME CONSIDER THE STATE TO BE EVIL, OTHERS THAT THE STATE IS A CURE FOR ALL EVILS, AND I AM IN BETWEEN – HE SAID DURING THE DEBATE WITH ADRIAN ZANDBERG: “What seems most important to me here, and when comparing it to the debates I had last week, is that I clearly see there are those who say the state is pure evil, that the state is needed by no one. Taxes are bad. This is one side of the political spectrum, and the other side, which says entrepreneurs are evil, and the state is a cure for all ills. I believe we need to go the middle way, the way of moderation, the way of harmony, the way.”

— THE CHANGING STRATEGY OF THE MOST IMPORTANT GLOBAL PLAYERS FORCES US TO ACCELERATE, TO REVISE WHAT HAS BEEN DONE SO FAR – SAID MORAWIECKI: “I coined the phrase ‘designed and crafted in Poland.’ We must design and produce ourselves, not just assemble goods. We cannot be subcontractors for others. And I can say that over the last 10 years, a lot has been achieved here. But this pivotal moment, in which we find ourselves due to the war in Ukraine and its repercussions, as well as the changing circumstances around us and the strategies of the most important global players, forces us to accelerate, to revise what has been done so far.”

— MORAWIECKI RECALLED THE AXIS OF THE DISPUTE WITH ZANDBERG – INNOVATION RATHER THAN CHEAP LABOR: “We must focus on innovation, on increasing investment in innovative sectors. I disagree with those who still want to see cheap labor as Poland's competitive advantage. We won't get very far with that.”

— THE TWO MOST INSANE POLICIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ARE SUPPORTED BY MY ADVERSARY. THE MIGRATION PACT AND THE GREEN DEAL – MORAWIECKI STRUCK AT ZANDBERG'S NAIVE FAITH IN EU POLICIES: “Here, in Dąbrowa, furnace no. 3 is being considered for closure. Another 2 million tons. Today Poland produces only seven million tons. We risk producing five. We consume thirteen. At its peak, we produced over sixteen. Why? Because, if I understand correctly, the two most insane policies of the European Union are supported by my adversary. The Migration Pact and the Green Deal. Unfortunately.”

— LARGE REGISTRIES, SUCH AS MOBYWATEL, OVER 10 MILLION ACCOUNTS, ONLINE PATIENT ACCOUNT, OVER 15 MILLION – THIS IS DIGITAL SOVEREIGNTY – MORAWIECKI FURTHER IN THE CONVERSATION WITH ZANDBERG: “Digital sovereignty is a major manipulation. To say that we have surrendered to anyone, surrendered. Listen. We have now put our data on our state registries. Large registries, such as mObywatel, with over 10 million accounts, the online patient account, with over 15 million. All of this is ours. We have a national cloud at COI, built on our servers, under our state control. Is there an element of sovereignty? Yes. We continue. Attention, the most important thing, because you need to see the forest, not let the trees obscure it for someone. Over 8 years of our government, we increased CIT revenue threefold. Under my predecessor and successor, the same CIT tax, which comes mainly from international corporations, including those giants, and from State Treasury companies, fell from 44 to 33 billion, while ours tripled. Attention! We continue! When we invited Google here, Google created a special platform. A special cloud project where a thousand Polish engineers work. They pay taxes here. Each of these engineers earns 300-400 thousand zlotys a year and also pays taxes here.”

— YES, THAT'S WHAT THE EUROPEAN UNION IS FOR. UNLESS IT IMPOSES SUCH A DIGITAL TAX. ARE WE TO RISK WAR WITH THE UNITED STATES BECAUSE THEY PREPARED SUCH A POOR PROJECT – MORAWIECKI'S LONGER EXPLANATION ON THE FIGHT AGAINST TAX HAVENS IN THE EU: “Why did India, Turkey, Germany, France, the European Union, Canada withdraw from the digital tax? The chairman says Poland, Poland did not withdraw. Do you know how it works with the digital tax? Tax on advertising. Facebook and Google file in a tax haven in Ireland. Tax havens were my main enemy for these 8 years – Dutch, Swiss sandwiches. Have you heard of them? Or Swiss-Irish, Cypriot-Maltese legal schemes? Yes, that's where they are accounted for. Who can handle this? Well, like in chess. Queen against queen. Bishop against bishop. Yes, that's what the European Union is for. Unless it imposes such a digital tax. Why did they tuck their tails between their legs and retreat? And now, even more brutally. For you, for you gentlemen. Here to my left, ironically, sitting in the European Union, the left has ruled the European Union for decades. Allies, very warmly, to the gentleman here, the chairman, and they, well, unfortunately, did not touch this at all. Why? Because they know how to count, and such a digital tax, as Deputy Prime Minister Gawkowski proposed today, you know what it entails? That mainly Polish companies, like Allegro, selling e-commerce, using e-commerce, will be taxed. 600 million zlotys from this, 200 million is supposed to be taxed from Facebook, Google, and other digital giants. Well, no? Are we to risk war with the United States because they prepared such a botched project, as they want to go to war.”

— IF YOU THINK I WILL EXPLAIN THE 800 MILLION DIGITAL TAX THEY WANT TO COLLECT, WHILE THEY ARE LOSING BILLIONS, BECAUSE CIT FOR 2024 AND 2025 IS ALREADY LOWER THAN IN 2023. THERE ARE BILLIONS THERE, THERE IS THE FOREST – SAID MORAWIECKI: “But I strongly advise everyone to calculate whether we will not lose 10 billion to earn half a billion. Because I calculated all this so that there would be as much money as possible in the budget, because the CIT tax, which I mentioned, does not mean that you can smile here, 62 billion zlotys more is 500+, 13th pension, and 14th pension. What we promised, we delivered, but it was a prerequisite. But the prerequisite was to fix public finances. If you think I will explain the 800 million digital tax they want to collect, while in the meantime they are losing billions, because CIT for '24 and '25 is already lower than in '23. There are billions there, there is the forest.”

— TO PAY FOR ITALIAN PENSIONS, NURSES AND DOCTORS, AND POLICE OFFICERS HAVE TO ASK THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION. AND I DO NOT WANT POLAND TO BE ON A LEASH FROM THE FINANCIAL MARKETS OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION OR THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK – MORAWIECKI ON THE SIGNIFICANCE OF JOINING THE EUROZONE: “Look at Italy. A powerful country in nominal GDP, 8th economy in the world, over 2 trillion. World economy, but indebted at 173% to GDP. I'll tell you. They are not financially sovereign, because every month they have to issue bonds worth 40 billion euros. And they wait until the European Central Bank kindly takes on part of the bond issuance. And only then do the financial markets follow them. So, to pay for Italian pensions, nurses, doctors, and police officers have to beg the European Commission. And I do not want Poland to be on a leash from the financial markets of the European Commission or the European Central Bank.”

— I WAS THE FIRST PERSON IN POLAND TO IMPOSE A BANK TAX ON BANKS – SAID MORAWIECKI: “I was the first person in Poland to impose a bank tax on banks, the first person in Poland to implement credit holidays, and the first person in Poland who, two years ago, said that there must be a windfall tax. I am glad that you have joined my camp.”

— WHAT CAN CONNECT US, WELL, I WANT TO BELIEVE THAT THESE ARE DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS SUCH AS CPK, PROJECTS IN POLISH INNOVATION, THE POLISH GAS HUB, POLISH PORTS – MORAWIECKI BUILDS A BRIDGE TO THE DEVELOPMENT-ORIENTED LEFT: “What can connect us, well, I want to believe that these are development projects such as CPK, projects in Polish innovation, the Polish gas hub, Polish, Polish ports. I will say at the beginning. At the beginning, when we took office, Polish ports generated 18 billion from customs duties, VAT, and excise tax. By the end of our term, it was 58 billion. This was a real expansion of port infrastructure, and I believe that with you we could work on further infrastructure development, because I hear this from Ms. Paulina Matysiak, I hear it from your MPs, and I believe that this could truly connect us.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inSBqPYTOfw

— SZEFERNAKER: THE DISPUTE BETWEEN THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE AND THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS IS THE RESULT OF A STRUGGLE WITHIN CIVIC PLATFORM FOR THE PRIME MINISTER'S POSITION – AS THE HEAD OF THE PRESIDENT'S CABINET SAID IN THE MORNING ON KRZYSZTOF ZIEMIEC'S SHOW ON RMF: “Within Civic Platform, there is currently a kind of race to see who will be the leader after Donald Tusk, who will be the prime minister. And in my opinion, Radosław Sikorski has started this race very strongly, in order to compete with the president at every step. An example of good, state-level relations over the last month, where there is no need to compete with the president, are the relations with the Ministry of National Defense, how BBN and MON cooperate,” he said. – This rivalry between Donald Tusk and Radosław Sikorski, who will compete more with the president, unfortunately causes Polish foreign policy to suffer,” added the head of the Chancellery of the President of the Republic of Poland.
https://www.rmf24.pl/tylko-w-rmf24/rozmowa/news-szefernaker-tusk-rywalizuje-z-sikorskim-o-to-kto-bardziej-be,nId,8017736

— DURING THE NIGHT, FITCH ANNOUNCED A DOWNGRADE OF POLAND'S RATING: For the first time in 9 years, the rating agency Fitch has changed the outlook for the Polish economy from "stable" to "negative." Fitch indicates the main reasons for its decision: the deteriorating budget situation, growing deficit, and the "sharp" increase in Poland's debt.

— SŁAWOMIR DUDEK, HEAD OF THE INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC FINANCE: This is a consequence of a high deficit and a very rapid rate of debt growth. The runaway debt train is the result of the populism trap.
https://x.com/DudSlaw/status/1964104937035436457

— PALACE AS AN ARMORED FIST – A PIS POLITICIAN QUOTED BY KAMILA BARANOWSKA: “- The President is in great shape, relaxed, because he is doing what he likes most, which is taking care of the party, and he has left all the media theater to Karol. For now, this division works great, so everyone is happy,” a well-known PiS politician tells us. Another of our interlocutors from PiS even used the phrase that “the Palace has become the armored fist of Nowogrodzka,” which well describes the situation and at the same time reflects the state of relations on the president-PiS line.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-prezydent-w-ofensywie-prezes-w-zachwycie-miesiac-prezydentur,nId,22302737

— BIRTHDAYS: Elżbieta Polak, Marek Bosak. SUNDAY: Jerzy Stępień, Piotr Marciniak, Teresa Czerwińska.


Łukasz Mężyk