state of play: 07/31/2025

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Janicki: This Government Still Manages to Harm Itself, Stepping on Rakes; Kalukin: After Trzaskowski's Defeat and the Crumbling of Tusk's Myth, Sikorski is Rising; Gruszczyński: Tusk is Anointing Szłapka

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE PROMISE OF THE TAX-FREE AMOUNT WILL NOT BE IMPLEMENTED IN THIS TERM - CONFIRMS MINISTER BEREK: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/31/wejscie-w-zycie-po-2027-roku-berek-o-podniesieniu-kwoty-wolnej/ -- I DON'T THINK IT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS early AS 2027. WE ARE WORKING ON THE TAX-FREE AMOUNT - SAID PRIME MINISTER DONALD TUSK ON TV YESTERDAY: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/30/na-pewno-na-rok-2026-tego-nie-bedzie-tusk-o-podwyzszeniu-kwoty-wolnej/ -- WŁODZIMIERZ CZARZASTY DECIDEDLY DENIED WHAT WE REPORTED YESTERDAY, THAT HE HAS NO CONTACT WITH MAGDALENA BIEJAT. He informed us that it is quite the opposite, that he has frequent and good contact, they talk, and make Reels together. We therefore apologize to Magdalena Biejat. -- HE CONFIRMED TODAY ON ONET THAT HE HAS CONTACT WITH ADRIAN ZANDBERG: “The Deputy Speaker was also asked about the future of New Left and the party’s start in the next elections. Czarzasty denied that the Left would start in the next elections on a single list with other parties that are currently part of the coalition. However, he added that he is ‘for’ starting with other left-wing parties. - I have contact with Adrian Zandberg - he emphasizes. The politician explains that the reason he does not see a start on a single list with coalition parties are significant programmatic differences”. https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wlodzimierz-czarzasty-o-slowach-szymona-holowni-duzo-zlej-roboty-zrobil/44bds15,79cfc278 -- MELIORATION AFFAIR. A SEVERE SENTENCE FOR STANISŁAW GAWŁOWSKI - ONET: “Gawłowski was sentenced to a total of five years imprisonment and 600 daily fines of PLN 300 each. Furthermore, he was banned from holding public office for 10 years (this applies to positions in state-owned companies). The court found him guilty of accepting material benefits and plagiarizing his doctoral dissertation”. https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetszczecin/afera-melioracyjna-jest-surowy-wyrok-dla-stanislawa-gawlowskiego/qm3jynv,79cfc278 -- PETRU CLAIMS SIKORSKI WILL SOON REPLACE TUSK AND STATES HE MET WITH BIELAN ALONG WITH SZŁAPKA - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/31/ -- EARLY ELECTIONS HAVE BECOME PROBABLE - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Just in case, with his Saturday rally in Pabianice, Tusk restored the format from the 2023 campaign – open white shirt, questions from the audience – which may indicate that early elections have become probable. By the way, this meeting was not easy for the Prime Minister. But the Prime Minister once again asked for trust, even if not everyone understands his various actions”. -- IT IS BELIEVED THAT SIKORSKI HAS CLEARLY TAKEN THE SECOND SPOT IN THE RULING CAMP AND MAY BECOME PRIME MINISTER EVEN BEFORE THE 2027 ELECTIONS - MARIUSZ JANICKI CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “It is believed that Sikorski has thus clearly taken the second spot in the ruling camp and may become Prime Minister even before the 2027 elections, and a presidential candidate in five years”. -- THERE WILL BE NO THIRD OPENING OF ACCOUNT SETTLEMENTS, SO EXPECTATIONS ARE HUGE, PERHAPS EXCESSIVE - MARIUSZ JANICKI CONTINUES: “There will be no third opening of account settlements, so expectations are huge, perhaps excessive. The failure of Żurek's mission, the slow pace of investigations, and the sluggishness in filing indictments will be treated either as a sign of incompetence, or ultimately as evidence that perhaps these scandals and ‘gigantic theft’ simply did not occur on this scale or are unprovable, which would undermine almost the entire narrative spun by the then-opposition before October 2023”. -- THIS GOVERNMENT STILL MANAGES TO HARM ITSELF, STEP ON RAKES, AND RUIN MATTERS – UNPROVOKED, WITHOUT ANY NEED - THE FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA CONTINUES: “This government still manages to harm itself, step on rakes, and ruin matters – unprovoked, without any need. This is a manifestation of exactly the same political ignorance and carelessness that lay behind the idea of organizing the unfortunate debate in Końskie, which marked the beginning of Trzaskowski's electoral disaster. Such things are cruelly punished in politics, because in today's media reality, there are no unimportant issues; defeat is made up of many seemingly small failures”. -- MEMBERS OF THE RULING CAMP ARE MENTALLY AND TECHNOLOGICALLY STUCK IN THE LAST DECADE, AND ALSO TEND TO BE NEGLIGENT, CASUAL, AND DISREGARD DETAILS - MARIUSZ JANICKI FURTHER STATES: “Members of the ruling camp are mentally and technologically stuck in the last decade, and also tend to be negligent, casual, and disregard details, thus ceding ground to the more task-oriented and cunning right wing. Tusk himself admitted that 2023 was a miracle, but such miracles need to be orchestrated”. https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2309339,1,rekonstrukcja-i-grabie.read -- TUSK HAS FALLEN INTO A DIP, HE'S LOST HIS WAY. IS HE STILL CAPABLE OF A REAL NEW OPENING? - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “in the first weeks after the defeat, the Prime Minister lost his way. Especially during the confusion related to the revealed irregularities in vote counting, when at first he distanced himself from the theory emerging within the hard electorate about Trzaskowski's stolen victory, then he validated it, and then he withdrew again. This lack of consistency has made Tusk the main recipient of complaints from his staunchest supporters today, who have doubted his resilience. Because he was supposed to do everything to block Karol Nawrocki's inauguration and lead to a recount of the votes”. -- THE OLD MASTER HAS LOST HIS FORMER FORM. THIS WAS IMMEDIATELY NOTICED WITHIN THE PARTY - RAFAŁ KALUKIN CONTINUES: “Tusk's ineffective intervention at the end of the campaign further showed that the old master has lost his former form. This was immediately noticed within the party, as evidenced by quite numerous anonymous voices of Platformers in the media suggesting that perhaps Tusk should already think about retirement. Such suggestions have not appeared in the formation, which is celebrating its quarter-century anniversary soon, before”. -- EXCESSIVE TRIUMPHALISM AFTER COLLIDING WITH RESISTANCE MAY, HOWEVER, BACKFIRE ON THE COALITION - STATES KALUKIN: “Excessive triumphalism after colliding with resistance may, however, backfire on the coalition. By the way, managing expectations has been the Achilles' heel of the democratic side for years”. -- AFTER TRZASKOWSKI'S DEFEAT AND THE CRUMBLING OF TUSK'S MYTH, SIKORSKI HAS EMERGED AS THE MOST POPULAR FIGURE IN HIS CAMP - RAFAŁ KALUKIN FURTHER STATES IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “However, Sikorski is more than just a well-regarded Minister of Foreign Affairs today. After Trzaskowski's defeat and the crumbling of Tusk's myth, he has emerged as the most popular figure in his camp. For the hard electorate, he has become a substitute for the former Tusk; the white horse is grazing in his meadows today. He is carried by an unverifiable narrative of alternative history, i.e., what would have happened if he had run for president. His entry into the campaign, moreover, made a far better impression than Tusk's struggle. And now he skillfully plays on the halo forming around him, trying for the first time to build his own environment within and outside the party. His son announced a party for young leaders, somewhat in the style of Trzaskowski's now-abandoned Campus”. -- IT IS NO ACCIDENT THAT IN PABIANICE, TUSK OFFERED A COMPLIMENT TO THE LEADER OF KONFEDERACJA - KALUKIN WRITES FURTHER: “There is no shortage of enthusiasts in Civic Platform who advocate for engaging with Sławomir Mentzen and his circle, aiming to draw him away from Krzysztof Bosak's nationalists by offering an alternative to the right-wing coalition arrangement. It was not by chance that in Pabianice, Tusk found himself offering a compliment to the leader of Konfederacja”. -- THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION IS BECOMING AN INCREASINGLY EMPTY SLOGAN, WHICH, UNFORTUNATELY, DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ITS SUCCESS - KALUKIN'S CONCLUSION: “In any case, the October 15 coalition is becoming an increasingly empty slogan, which, unfortunately, does not bode well for its success. Although perhaps one should not draw far-reaching conclusions from this crisis reconstruction, certainly not the last one, giving the Prime Minister a little more time to consider the new situation. As long as it's not too much time, because every subsequent month of inertia will from now on be a milestone towards disaster in two years”. https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2309363,1,tusk-wpadl-w-dolek-pogubil-sie-czy-stac-go-jeszcze-na-realne-nowe-otwarcie.read -- PLATFORM IS MATURING TOWARDS A LEADERSHIP CHANGE. WHO WILL TAKE POWER AFTER TUSK? - ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: “From several dozen conversations I have had in recent weeks with politicians of Civic Coalition – MPs and ministers, but also local activists and party technocrats – it appears that some factions of the party are starting to focus on the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and others on the Mayor of Warsaw. The party is mentally distancing itself from the Prime Minister week by week, and at the same time, none of the potential leaders and successors to Tusk are initiating a process that could grant them power”. -- TUSK LOVES POWER AND HAS NO INTENTION OF SHARING IT WITH ANYONE, AS SHOWN BY THE FATES OF STRONG POLITICIANS WITH A PRIME MINISTERIAL FORMAT AND PROSPECTS - GRUSZCZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “Tusk is not ready for such a solution, because PO voters would not understand why their leader is running away from responsibility. Furthermore, the trauma from the Solidarity Electoral Action - Freedom Union coalition government in the late 1990s is still alive in PO, which operated in such a setup: the leader of AWS was Marian Krzaklewski, but Jerzy Buzek became Prime Minister. None of the parties forming the coalition 25 years ago re-entered the Sejm. And secondly: Tusk loves power and has no intention of sharing it with anyone, as evidenced by the fates of strong politicians with a prime ministerial format and prospects”. -- I'LL SAY IT BRUTALLY: DONALD'S SUCCESSOR WILL BE DONALD - STATEMENT BY AN ANONYMOUS PO POLITICIAN IN GRUSZCZYŃSKI'S TEXT: “[Tusk] is sending a clear message to the electorate: I am pointing out a dolphin to you, in case I feel weak for a moment – an extremely experienced MP, in PO for years, tells me in the parliamentary corridors. – But rest assured: Sikorski does not have the character of a political killer, nor is Donald looking for a successor. I'll say it brutally: Donald's successor will be Donald”. -- TUSK WANTS SZŁAPKA TO BE PRIME MINISTER - GRUSZCZYŃSKI CLAIMS: “I have heard from two people from different factions that Adam Szłapka will become the new Prime Minister after 2027 – provided Civic Coalition wins the elections. The government spokesperson and former Minister for European Affairs allegedly heard this directly from Tusk”. -- FREEDOM UNION POLITICIANS VOTED FOR LECH KACZYŃSKI - GRUSZCZYŃSKI FURTHER IN GW: “At that time, Jan Lityński, one of the few legendary opposition figures from the communist era respected by all political options, was so angry with Tusk and did not trust him that in the 2005 presidential elections, he voted for Lech Kaczyński, just as Tadeusz Mazowiecki, the first Prime Minister of free Poland, did”. -- CZARZASTY WILL WIN THE ELECTIONS FOR THE CHAIRMAN OF NEW LEFT IN THE FALL - GRUSZCZYŃSKI WRITES IN GW: “The situation is different in New Left, where Włodzimierz Czarzasty's position is unchallenged, although Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk or Krzysztof Gawkowski would already like to lead the party. The Deputy Speaker of the Sejm therefore had to tour all the party's regional structures and count his supporters. He counted them; in the fall, he will win the election for the chairman of New Left”. https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32138050,ale-po-co-pan-drazy-platforma-dojrzewa-do-zmiany-lidera.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Paweł Łączkowski, Jacek Ambroziak, Stanisław Jurcewicz, ks. Kazimierz Sowa, Arkadiusz Litwiński.

Łukasz Mężyk