state of play: 07/21/2025
STATE OF PLAY: Braun Quoted by Oko: 'We Are No Longer Some Zero in the Equation, a Glitch in the System'; Semka on Braun: 'He Will Gladly Win Over Some Part of Konfederacja
-- REPORT BY ARLETA BOJKA ON KANAŁ ZERO ABOUT THE AUGUSTÓW ROUNDUP:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLty48IbKes
-- WILL MINISTER LESZCZYNA NOT RESIGN? "DISASTER IS LOOMING, CHANGE IS NOT WORTH IT" - JUDYTA WATOŁA IN GW: “Although Izabela Leszczyna has terrible approval ratings, and the public would understand her resignation, she most likely will not be dismissed. - Tusk wants neither higher spending nor ambitious laws. Leszczyna suits him - we hear”.
-- THE NFZ BUDGET HAS NEVER LACKED SO MUCH MONEY. A WELL-MANAGED NFZ ALWAYS HAD A FINANCIAL CUSHION. IT USED TO BE MILLIONS, THEN BILLIONS IN RESERVE - CONTINUED WATOŁA IN GW: “The point is that a disaster is looming. The NFZ budget has never lacked so much money. A well-managed NFZ always had a financial cushion. It used to be millions, then billions in reserve. Now only thousands remain in its accounts. This is the effect of decisions made during the PiS government, including the law on minimum wages in healthcare. Civic Coalition MPs also supported it. What's worse, Izabela Leszczyna, warned about the threat it posed to the system, did nothing to improve it”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32116646,nie-bedzie-dymisji-minister-leszczyny-nadciaga-katastrofa.html
-- POLAND'S RESULT IS DISTURBING: THE TAX WEDGE IS A FULL 45 PERCENT - KATARZYNA KUCHARCZYK IN RZ: “The average tax wedge in the region is 38 percent and exceeds the OECD average by 3 percentage points. Germany and Slovakia have some of the highest results, reaching 49 percent. On the other side are Moldova and Kosovo with a dozen or so percent. Poland's result is disturbing: the wedge is a full 45 percent. In practice, this means significant differences between the total cost of employment and the employee's net salary, and it affects labor market competitiveness and the profitability of employment”.
https://www.rp.pl/budzet-i-podatki/art42724381-mapa-podatkowa-europy-jak-na-tle-innych-panstw-wypada-polska
-- STRONG REVIVAL IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR IS STILL NOT VISIBLE - MARIA MAZUREK IN GAZETA.PL: “On Monday, we will learn a bit more about the condition of the industrial sector. The Central Statistical Office will provide data on industrial production in June. According to expectations (we publish them via the macronext.pl portal), it is expected to increase by 1.4 percent year-on-year and 0.3 percent month-on-month. In May, production increased by 3.9 percent year-on-year, but decreased by as much as 2 percent month-on-month. A strong revival in this sector is still not visible”.
-- DESPITE THE ECONOMY RECOVERING FOR THE SECOND, THIRD YEAR IN A ROW, THE DEMAND FOR LABOR LOOKS "ONLY' MODERATELY GOOD - EXPERT PIE BY MARIA MAZUREK IN GAZETA.PL: “Poland has no problems with the unemployment rate (it has long been one of the lowest, and sometimes the lowest in the EU), but when it comes to the market itself, a certain slowdown is visible. New job offers are not increasing dynamically. - Despite the economy recovering for the second, third year in a row, the demand for labor looks 'only' moderately good. Of course, it still exceeds employment reduction levels, but historically employers created more jobs before the war crisis and before the strong inflationary shock - Andrzej Kubisiak from the Polish Economic Institute told us recently”.
https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,32110995,nadchodzi-turbo-tydzien-w-polskiej-gospodarce-nie-tylko-rekonstrukcja.html
-- CHANCELLOR MERZ, E3 AND THE COURSE FOR EUROPE. THIS ACRONYM IS WORTH REMEMBERING. A JOURNEY WITHOUT TUSK WAS A SYMBOL BY CHRISTOPH HASSELBACH FROM DEUTSCHE WELLE IN GAZETA.PL: “Recently, Friedrich Merz, Emmanuel Macron, and Keir Starmer also traveled together by train to Kyiv to assure Ukraine of their unwavering support. Photos from the trip show the trio in a relaxed and informal atmosphere. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk arrived to meet them on a different train. (...) The joint train journey of Merz, Starmer, and Macron to Kyiv – without Tusk and Meloni – was a symbol: the formula for cooperation in security policy is not E5, not E4, but E3”.
https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,168930,32116646,kanclerz-merz-e3-i-kurs-na-europe-ten-skrot-warto-zapamietac.html
-- WHILE KACZYŃSKI IS OCCUPIED WITH A "NEW VISION FOR POLAND" AND THE RIGHT'S PROGRAMMATIC OFFENSIVE, THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO FORM A RECONSTRUCTED CABINET FOR WEEKS - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ ON X: “The right wing wins with a coherent message against the muddled democrats, who have even argued about vote counting, not to mention housing policy”.
https://x.com/PSzubartowicz/status/1946941934000341004
-- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI CALLS FOR PRESENCE IN WARSAW ON THE DAY OF THE PRESIDENT'S SWEARING-IN: “And it is still unknown what will happen at this final moment, which is why presence in front of the Sejm is very important. It is only a dozen or so days away, we need to go, we need to be in Warsaw. Those who can should participate. The beginning of Mr. President Nawrocki's actual term must be something grand, something that shows that it was a true victory and true support of the nation, or at least all Polish patriots”.
-- KACZYŃSKI ANNOUNCED A PIS PROGRAMMATIC CONFERENCE IN KATOWICE: “Therefore, we decided on a major conference at the end of October. It will take place in Katowice. This time it will not be the finale, but the start of a major operation, which is intended not only to prepare a grand program but also to mobilize people. To show that there is an alternative, that Poland can be governed differently, that problems can be solved, something that is at the center of our endeavors. But there must be more of these endeavors. We must also tackle other issues, and as part of this operation, we must know that we have several problems to solve”.
-- I ALSO CALL FOR REALISM FROM THE ACTIVISTS OF OUR PARTY. WE HAVE AS MUCH AS WE HAVE. LET'S ASSUME ABOUT 30 PERCENT, ALTHOUGH BRAUN RECENTLY TOOK SOME POINTS FROM US. THEY HAVE AROUND 20 IN TOTAL - KACZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “I also call for realism from the activists of our party. You cannot think at this moment that our situation is resolved. We have as much as we have. Let's assume about 30 percent, although recently Braun took some points from us. They have around 20 in total. And in this way, we will have an advantage and we will win. This is something sharp, brutal. This is childishness. You must notice all the differences, the constant attacks on us. You must know all about this, and above all, you must know that very often words are heard from the other side that they are ready to, the other side, meaning they are ready to participate in supporting this system that is currently in Poland. And this system must end. I am in no way saying 'no' in advance, but we must talk to people, we must also talk to them, if only they want to talk. We must convince them, we must ask them what this is actually about”.
-- LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, WE ARE FAR FROM THINGS BEING TRULY GOOD - KACZYŃSKI SAID ON SUNDAY AT A RALLY: “I don't want to go too far with this, but there is really something to discuss, and this already concerns an internal party discussion, so that we are aware of certain things, so that we do not lull ourselves into believing that everything is fine. No, ladies and gentlemen, we are far from things being truly good. I know that certain slogans resonate with people's hearts and minds, regarding new hope. Such slogans, in essence, of social Darwinism, are particularly appealing to some young men. Only that they are radically contrary to our program and radically contrary to common sense, because such a path would simply lead to everything exploding, and God forbid, that's what would happen to Poland”.
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/735535-prezes-pis-obecnosc-przed-sejmem-6viii-jest-bardzo-wazna
-- BY THE BEDSIDE OF THE GRAVELY ILL COALITION OF DECEMBER 13TH, CONFEDERATES AND PIŚ MEMBERS, OBSERVING TUSK'S POLITICAL AGONY, CAN EASILY FORGET THAT THEY HAVE A LOT OF HOMEWORK AHEAD OF THEM - PIOTR SEMKA IN DO RZECZY: “But the biggest obstacle to thinking about some kind of PiS-Polska 2050-PSL-Konfederacja arrangement is the reluctance of both opposition parties to take on even a part of the fatal odium associated with the December 13th coalition. Of course, there are those who say that Donald Tusk's mere staying in power is destructive to Poland, but that is just a catchy slogan. In practice, the existence of such a protracted coalition from Mentzen through Kaczyński to Kosiniak-Kamysz and Hołownia would be agonizing. We recently saw in Germany how short-lived the so-called traffic light coalition was, an alliance of the SPD, FDP, and Greens. Let alone Poland, where political conflicts are incomparably sharper.”
-- DOES THIS PARTY REALLY HAVE THE PERSONNEL TO STAFF ALL MINISTRIES IF IT WINS? ADDITIONALLY, CONFEDERATES ARE IN A SITUATION OF HIDDEN RIVALRY WITH GRZEGORZ BRAUN - CONTINUED SEMKA IN DO RZECZY: “Allegedly, all senior high school students know that systematic studying is necessary, but this is often just theory. The same applies to Konfederacja, for that matter. Does this party really have the personnel to staff all ministries if it wins? Additionally, Confederates are in a situation of hidden rivalry with Grzegorz Braun, who in some polls reaches even 8 percent. The incredibly media-savvy Braun has his own score to settle with Sławomir Mentzen and will gladly win over some part of Konfederacja's current voters for himself”.
-- GAZING AT THE DECLINE OF PLATFORMA WITH CLEAR SCHADENFREUDE IS PLEASANT ENTERTAINMENT, BUT IT DOES NOT IMPROVE THE RIGHT'S PREPARATION TO TAKE POWER - SEMKA'S CONCLUSION IN DO RZECZY: “So, by the bedside of the gravely ill December 13th coalition, Confederates and PiS members, observing Tusk's political agony, can easily forget that they have a lot of homework ahead of them. And gazing at the decline of Platforma with clear schadenfreude is pleasant entertainment, but it does not improve the right's preparation to take power”.
https://dorzeczy.pl/opinie/755307/semka-pis-i-konfa-brac-wladze-czy-czekac-na-kres-tuska.html
-- ON SATURDAY, JULY 19, A "BRAUN'S TEAM" PICNIC TOOK PLACE IN NASUTÓW NEAR LUBLIN. THE EVENT ATTRACTED SEVERAL HUNDRED PEOPLE. ENTIRE FAMILIES SHOWED UP - REPORT BY MAŁGORZATA DOMAGAŁA IN OKO.PRESS: “Although there is still a long way to the parliamentary elections, the Confederation of the Polish Crown is reaching for campaign tricks and extending its hand to voters. On Saturday, July 19, a "Braun's Team" picnic took place in Nasutów near Lublin. The event attracted several hundred people. Entire families showed up. The youngest could enjoy attractions such as face painting or take part in a drawing contest for a portrait of Grzegorz Braun. For picnic participants, grilled sausages (150 kg in total) and coffee were served free of charge. At the bazaar, they could buy balloons, popcorn, honey, or books, including Roman Dmowski's "Thoughts of a Modern Pole." However, the sales hit of the day in Nasutów was a plastic fire extinguisher replica for PLN 30, on which Braun gave autographs (a gadget, of course, referring to Braun extinguishing the Hanukkah candles in the Sejm). Cheaper by five zlotys, "Fire Extinguisher Front" pins to attach to a blouse or jacket also sold well”.
-- WE WILL FIGHT FOR MULTIPLE MANDATES. NOT FOR ONE MANDATE TO FORCE OUR WAY SOMEWHERE - BRAUN AT A RALLY IN THE LUBLIN REGION, FURTHER QUOTED BY DOMAGAŁA IN OKO.PRESS: “- We were measured and weighed in this last presidential campaign, and the measurement and weighing turned out to be exceptionally promising. The situation here is so serious that we will fight for multiple mandates. Not for one mandate to force our way somewhere and mark one dissenting vote, to dictate into the protocol. No! Here in the Lublin region, this is Poland. Not Ukropol, not Ukropolin, not a euro-collective land”.
-- WE ARE NO LONGER SOME ZERO IN THE EQUATION, SOME GLITCH IN THE SYSTEM - BRAUN FURTHER AT THE RALLY, QUOTED BY OKO.PRESS: “Ladies and gentlemen, I earnestly ask you to take advantage of the charms of the day, all these pleasures and attractions, but also to leave here with a sense of duty and a sense that this is possible. That we are no longer some zero in the equation, some glitch in the system”.
https://oko.press/braun-uwodzi-kielbasa-z-grilla-i-wzmacnia-gasnicowy-front-relacja-z-wiecu
-- BODNAR ON THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY: I CANNOT DO MUCH MORE IN THIS MATTER AT THIS MOMENT - IN A CONVERSATION WITH JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “It has been legally convened, announced, and all indications are that it will take place. I cannot do much more in this matter at this moment”.
-- ANOMALIES OCCUR, BUT THEY DO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT, THEY DO NOT DISTURB THE OVERALL, FINAL RESULT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - CONTINUED BODNAR WITH NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “The opinions presented by Prof. Jacek Haman and Prof. Andrzej Torój, for the purposes of the proceedings conducted by the prosecutor's office, indicated that anomalies occur, but they do not have a significant effect, they do not disturb the overall, final result of the election of the President of Poland”.
-- THE DECISION IN THIS REGARD BELONGS TO THE PRIME MINISTER - BODNAR ON NIZINKIEWICZ'S QUESTION ABOUT PARTICIPATING IN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY: “The decision in this regard belongs to the Prime Minister. If the Prime Minister decides that the entire government should be present, then of course I will also be his representative”.
-- HIS WIFE WAS ALSO INVOLVED IN THE TRANSACTION, WHO DOES NOT HAVE IMMUNITY - BODNAR ON THE INVESTIGATION REGARDING AN APARTMENT: “Proceedings are underway in the matter, not against a person, concerning Mr. Jerzy Ż.'s studio apartment. The proceedings are conducted by the prosecutor's office in Gdańsk. Evidence is being gathered, witnesses are being interviewed. Even if the president-elect obtained immunity, as the head of state, his wife was also involved in the transaction, and she does not have immunity. (...) The First Lady does not benefit from immunity and is treated by the judiciary like any citizen. But I emphasize, these are proceedings in the matter, not against a person”.
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art42727561-adam-bodnar-anomalie-podczas-liczenia-glosow-nie-wplynely-na-wybor-karola-nawrockiego
-- WHAT HAVE YOU DONE - KORWIN'S UNEXPECTED CONFESSION ABOUT ZOLL: “Andrzej, we went to Reytan together. We were so proud that a descendant of famous Krakow lawyers was attending a Warsaw high school. We were proud that you were the president of the Supreme Court”.
https://x.com/JkmMikke/status/1946941897278374209
-- BIRTHDAYS: Jacek Sauk, Adam Malczak, Wojciech Kasprowski, Jan Kulas.
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