state of play: 06/24/2025

STATE OF PLAY: The Tax-Free Allowance Issue Returns. Can Poland Secure the World's First Chip Deal with the USA?

Łukasz Mężyk

-- "DEGRADATION OF COALITION LEADERS". BOSAK: THE PO-PSL-PL2050-LEWICA GOVERNMENT HAS TURNED POLAND INTO A POPULATION BUFFER FOR GERMANY. WASTE RECEPTACLE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/06/24/ -- TAX-FREE ALLOWANCE WILL NOT INCREASE. IT IS GAMBLING WITH STATE BUDGET STABILITY - BARTEK GODUSŁAWSKI IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “The state budget and worse economic outlooks than predicted by the government do not allow for a one-time increase of the tax-free allowance to PLN 60,000. Even spreading this process over time is not possible due to the excessive budget deficit. Theoretically, the government could burden BGK at the cost of tax cuts, although it criticized the predecessors from PiS for such moves. However, this solution will not curb the rapid growth of public debt, which is occurring even without a higher tax-free allowance.” -- THE HEAD OF THE FINANCE MINISTRY HAS OVERESTIMATED THE PLAN TO FINANCIALLY STRENGTHEN LOCAL GOVERNMENT UNITS; THIS GAP CAN NO LONGER BE FILLED - GODUSŁAWSKI FURTHER IN BI: “It is different now due to the reform of local government revenues. It came at the cost of state budget revenues. Considering the scale of funds that have gone to local authorities, one can today argue that the head of the finance ministry has overestimated the plan to financially strengthen local government units, which has impacted the budget. This gap can no longer be filled.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/businessinsider/kwota-wolna-od-podatku-nie-wzrosnie-w-2025-roku-dlaczego-rzad-donalda-tuska-nie/gyevysr,211f4564 -- THE GOVERNMENT IS TRAPPED BY ITS OWN PROMISE. WILL KAROL NAWROCKI RAISE THE TAX-FREE ALLOWANCE TO PLN 60,000? - MAREK RABIJ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Coalition partners would then have to reach the heights of political casuistry to explain to their voters why they are voting against their own idea. And why is PiS suddenly defending it?” -- THIS IS ALMOST EQUIVALENT TO ANNUAL EXPENDITURE ON THE 800 PLUS PROGRAM, ONE-THIRD OF THE DEFENSE BUDGET - RABIJ FURTHER IN TP: “Both sides are, of course, aware that raising the tax-free allowance to PLN 60,000 is as much a pipe dream today as it was two years ago. It would cost the budget about PLN 55 billion, which is 56% of last year's PIT revenue. This is almost equivalent to the annual expenditure on the 800 plus program, one-third of the defense budget, and almost a quarter of the public healthcare budget.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/rzad-w-pulapce-wlasnej-obietnicy-czy-karol-nawrocki-podniesie-kwote-wolna-do-60-tysiecy-zlotych -- WE HAVE KEY PROJECTS RELATED TO DEFENSE, ENERGY, AND TECHNOLOGY WITH AMERICAN PARTNERS. PERHAPS THIS IS EXACTLY WHY WE SHOULD BE FIRST IN LINE AND CONCLUDE THE WORLD'S FIRST INTERGOVERNMENTAL AGREEMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF CHIP IMPORTS – SAYS MARTA POŚLAD, HEAD OF THE AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE (AMCHAM), IN AN INTERVIEW FOR BUSINESS INSIDER POLSKA: “We have key projects related to defense, energy, and technology with American partners. Perhaps this is precisely why we should be first in line and conclude the world's first intergovernmental agreement in the context of chip imports. By leveraging all the strong cards – political and economic – that we have today. The American Chamber of Commerce in Poland would do everything to achieve such an agreement – says Marta Poślad, head of the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) and Director of Public Policy and Government Relations in Central and Eastern Europe and Transatlantic Relations at Google, in an interview for Business Insider Polska.” -- WE ARE NOT PURSUING PROTECTIONIST POLICIES TOWARDS AMERICAN COMPANIES. WE HAVE EXCELLENT BILATERAL RELATIONS – REGARDLESS OF WHO IS GOVERNING AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT - FURTHER MARTA POŚLAD AT GODUSŁAWSKI'S IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “We are designated as a model ally by the USA. We are fulfilling one of the main expectations of President Donald Trump and his administration: we are taking significant responsibility for our own security – we are already spending 4.7% of GDP on defense, and soon it will be 5%. We are not pursuing protectionist policies towards American companies. We have excellent bilateral relations – regardless of who is governing at any given moment.” -- POLAND IS TODAY CONSIDERED A MODEL FOR THE REST OF EUROPE IN TERMS OF GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE USA - SAYS THE HEAD OF AM-CHAM: “I think there has been a lot of unnecessary hysteria and emotion surrounding the transatlantic relationship. Meanwhile, if we look at concrete factors, everything is quite clear. Poland is meeting the main expectations of the USA: it is taking responsibility for its own security and is not pursuing discriminatory policies towards American business. Of course, there are also sensitive areas – such as tariffs. The USA clearly defines where it sees trade barriers and with whom it is willing to engage in constructive dialogue on this matter. Poland is today considered a model for the rest of Europe in terms of good relations with the United States. It is important not to change this course and not to engage in confrontational actions.” -- WE ARE NOT TALKING AT ALL ABOUT THE IMPACT ON POLAND OF THE FACT THAT 80% OF OUR 4G INFRASTRUCTURE RUNS ON CHINESE EQUIPMENT. THIS IS A SERIOUS OVERSIGHT - FURTHER POŚLAD AT GODUSŁAWSKI'S IN BI: “A huge oversight in the Polish public debate is the omission of a discussion about China – about its influence on shaping the technological debate in which we are currently involved. Indeed, it is worth discussing the impact of technology – largely originating from the USA – on society and democracy, but at the same time, we are completely failing to discuss the impact on Poland of the fact that 80% of our 4G infrastructure runs on Chinese equipment. This is a serious oversight.” -- TECHNOLOGY ITSELF HAS BECOME A PILLAR OF SECURITY – STILL THE HEAD OF AM-CHAM IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “We have built the pillars of our security – defense and energy – based on the United States, and yet we have placed a question mark over technology. And yet, today every industry is a digital industry. Defense is technology. Energy is technology. And technology itself has become a pillar of security.” https://businessinsider.com.pl/wiadomosci/technologie-i-energia-kluczowe-aspekty-wspolpracy-polski-z-usa/0k8dr5k -- IN THE NEW REALITY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ESCALATING HYSTERIA OVER THE ALLEGED FALSIFICATION OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, THE PSL CAN PLAY A POSITIVE ROLE - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “It is the agrarian party that shows the most sense in the political circus that has erupted around the alleged falsification of the presidential elections. Of course, wherever there have been documented irregularities, votes should be recounted. However, the reference by some KO politicians to the fact that the Supreme Court's Chamber of Extraordinary Control cannot rule on the validity of the elections in this situation and that the inauguration of Karol Nawrocki should be postponed, is simply political rowdiness, which the agrarian party, freed from the bonds of marriage with Polska 2050 and wanting to maintain its position in the center, is most strongly opposing on the coalition side.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/trzecia-droga-musiala-sie-rozpasc-i-wcale-nie-jest-zla-wiadomosc-191060 -- DELEGATES TO THE ELECTIONS WERE CHOSEN SO THAT THE ONE WHO IS MEANT TO WIN, WINS. BUT MUCH IN LEWICA WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER CZARZASTY "DEFENDS" THE SEJM MARSHAL'S SEAT - SAYS A LEWICA POLITICIAN IN MONIKA WALUŚ'S ARTICLE IN ONET: “Władek will definitely run in these elections. I'll say more, he practically has this victory in his pocket already – a politician from Lewica tells us.” -- GAWKOWSKI IN TANDEM WITH TRELA - FURTHER IN WALUŚ'S ARTICLE IN ONET: “In Lewica, we heard that these two politicians could run in a tandem: Gawkowski for chairman and Trela for party secretary.” -- CZARZASTY WILL RELY ON KULASEK IN CASE HE TAKES UP THE FUNCTION OF MARSHAL - WALUŚ WRITES IN ONET: “But there is also a scenario circulating in the party that Czarzasty, upon taking the Sejm Marshal's seat, will appoint his successors in the party leadership. According to this theory, Marcin Kulasek (Minister of Science) would become chairman, and Dariusz Wieczorek (former Minister of Science) would become secretary.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/rozgrywka-o-wladze-w-lewicy-bedzie-jak-u-kolegow-z-pis/mldd0kc,79cfc278 -- ACCORDING TO INVESTIGATORS, GIERTYCH KNEW NOTHING, DID NOT DECIDE, AND HAD NO INFLUENCE OVER HIS LONG-TERM BODYGUARD. THE DISMISSAL OF THE POLITICIAN'S THREAD IS FINAL, AND INVESTIGATORS ARE STILL HIDING THE JUSTIFICATION FOR THE DECISION - PAWEŁ FIGURSKI, PATRYK SŁOWIK, AND SZYMON JADCZAK IN WP: “The prosecutor's office has discontinued the investigation against Roman Giertych, although charges of money laundering and misappropriation of tens of millions of PLN still weigh on the politician's close associates and clients. According to investigators, Giertych knew nothing, did not decide, and had no influence over his long-term bodyguard. The dismissal of the politician's thread is final, and investigators are still hiding the justification for the decision. Wirtualna Polska has learned its content.” -- ALL CHARGES THAT THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE BROUGHT AGAINST GIERTYCH IN 2020-2021 WERE DEEMED INSUFFICIENT TO ESTABLISH THAT THE LAWYER AND CIVIC COALITION MP COULD HAVE COMMITTED A CRIME - FURTHER AUTHORS OF WP: “In short: investigators concluded that Giertych was not jointly responsible for causing damage to the joint-stock company Polnord in a large amount, i.e., PLN 72.5 million. This is because Giertych was involved in the legal services of the company and did not deal with Polnord's financial matters.” https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/jak-prokuratura-umorzyla-sledztwo-ws-romana-giertycha-w-aferze-polnordu-7170781204773760a -- WHAT CAS MUDDE PREDICTED TWENTY YEARS AGO HAS HAPPENED – POPULISM HAS BECOME A DOMINANT, NOT MARGINAL, POLITICAL CURRENT. ALSO IN SYSTEMS OF MODERATE PARTIES - BEN STANLEY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA. -- ELEMENTS OF THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK OF POPULISM HAVE BECOME NORMAL FEATURES OF CONTEMPORARY DEMOCRATIC COMPETITION, NOT EXCEPTIONAL DEVIATIONS - FURTHER BEN STANLEY IN KL: “The problem for those studying populism is therefore not that this idea has become irrelevant, but that it has become too relevant. Identifying distinct populist parties or individual proponents of populism is becoming increasingly futile when elements of the analytical framework of populism have become normal features of contemporary democratic competition, rather than exceptional deviations from democratic norms.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2025/06/24/populizm-przestal-byc-marginesem/ -- Jolanta Szczypińska would have celebrated her birthday today. -- BIRTHDAYS: Paweł Kukiz, Jan Król, Jakub Banaszek, Łukasz Chatys.

Łukasz Mężyk