state of play: 06/21/2025

GAME STATE: By Consolidating the Hardest Electorate, Tusk Rules Out Any Succession Scenario

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THEIR CHILD WAS TAKEN FROM HIS PARENTS BECAUSE THEY ARE DISABLED. PLACED IN FOSTER CARE 500 KM AWAY - MAGDA NOGAJ IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Patrycja left the maternity ward with a big smile. However, after that joy, only a video shot on a mobile phone by a family member remained. Soon, when she wanted to hug her son, she heard from a nurse: - Please do not touch the child, your hands are dirty from the stroller. The woman is disabled, she does not move independently. Her partner also has health problems. - The soulless bureaucratic machine acted very quickly - notes the couple's lawyer, Ernest Ziemianowicz. - Antoś was born on February 20, 2025. The observation in the hospital to see if the parents could cope with the newborn lasted only a day. After a week, there was a decision from the family court, and recently, on May 27, the County Family Assistance Center informed that the minor would be placed in foster care on the other side of Poland”. https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,32032906,szpital-w-jeleniej-gorze-nie-wydal-noworodka-rodzicom-bo-sa.html -- INFANT TAKEN FROM MOTHER HAS DIED. THE WOMAN WAS IMPRISONED FOR UNPAID FINES: “22-year-old Magdalena was arrested due to unpaid fines. Her two young children were handed over to foster care, even though their own family could have looked after them. A few days later, four-month-old Oskar died. The mother was brought to the funeral in handcuffs. The tragic event took place in Warsaw. It was presented by Polsat News in the program 'Interwencja'”. -- AS POLSAT NEWS REPORTED, MONIKA DECIDED TO FIGHT IN COURT TO GET HER GRANDCHILDREN BACK. SHE DIDN'T MAKE IT, BECAUSE LITTLE OSKAR DIED FOUR DAYS LATER IN FOSTER CARE: “As far as I know, he choked. Initially, the version was that it was a piece of beetroot, I don't know, it's not confirmed. I suspect the child was fed milk and not put in a position to burp. I wanted to see the files, but the prosecutor's office said I would get them when the case concluded. I'm afraid that by then, I won't be able to do anything” – indicated the children's grandmother”. https://opoka.org.pl/News/Polska/2025/zmarlo-niemowle-odebrane-matce-kobieta-trafila-do-wiezienia-za -- SERVICES DID NOT ALLOW THE GREAT-GRANDMOTHER TO CARE FOR THE CHILDREN. FOUR DAYS LATER, THE BOY DIED - ONET: https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwarszawa/czteromiesieczny-chlopiec-zmarl-w-rodzinie-zastepczej-policja-odpowiada-na-zarzuty/v5g7cpe,79cfc278 -- FIRST THERE WERE THREE DAYS IN THE EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT, THEN TWO IN THE ORTHOPEDIC DEPARTMENT. ALL FOR NOTHING. SOMETHING IS CLEARLY NOT WORKING IN THIS SYSTEM - SAYS WARSAW ER PATIENT - MARTYNA ŚMIGIEL IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “- There is always something going on there. New people are brought in from the city all the time. And the patients lack even drinks. I didn't drink from midnight until 7 PM the next day. And even if I asked the staff for water, the nurses cannot decide on hydration before surgery on their own. They have to ask the doctors to administer an IV drip. But they are operating, so everyone lies there thirsty”. https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,32035063,sor-na-lindleya-to-sajgon-jak-spedzilam-tu-piec-bezproduktywnych.html -- OUR THESIS: By consolidating the hardest electorate, Tusk rules out any succession scenario. -- DONALD TUSK ON X: Gentlemen Andrzej Duda, Karol Nawrocki, and Jarosław Kaczyński - aren't you simply, humanly curious about the real voting results? You certainly are. And as is known, honest people have nothing to fear. https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1936360156406714549 -- OUT OF HUMAN CURIOSITY, BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW - WERE/COULD TRUST REPRESENTATIVES APPOINTED BY COMMITTEES PRESENT AT ALL TIMES WHEN THE BALLOTS WERE STORED, OR ARE THE RESULTS TO BE COUNTED NATIONWIDE "OUT OF HUMAN CURIOSITY" WHILE THE BALLOTS WERE OUT OF REACH OF TRUST REPRESENTATIVES? - PATRYK SŁOWIK ON X: Of course, someone might say that it was sealed and it would be difficult to cheat, but if, according to some, massive fraud involving tens of thousands of people was possible... https://x.com/PatrykSlowik/status/1936360156406714549 -- SZYMON JADCZAK ON X: At least now I know why the Chancellery of the Prime Minister is hiding information about Kropiwnicki, the Ministry of Digital Affairs about the NASK report, and the prosecutor's office about the dismissal of Giertych's investigation. Donald Tusk explained. Honest people have nothing to fear... https://x.com/SzJadczak/status/1936364186180755769 -- DISTRACTING FROM DEFEAT - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK ON OKO.PRESS: “Interestingly, Rafał Trzaskowski has disappeared from the political reality. Three weeks after the spectacular loss of the sure-fire candidate, his campaign is no longer a topic of debate. The discussion around the election results has effectively covered up the internal reviews of the campaign team, diverting attention. However, there is also a certain danger here for Tusk and his party. Five years ago, Trzaskowski was supposed to lose because of TVP and other media controlled by the then government. Now he is supposed to lose due to falsifications and irregularities. Will this really serve him? After all, the more he leans into the narrative of rigged elections, the more Trzaskowski becomes a victim of external circumstances, rather than a proactive politician. Let me remind you of Kaczyński's words again: 'Tusk doesn't know how to lose with dignity.'” https://oko.press/tusk-wybory-nie-beda-wazne-z-punktu-widzenia-wyborcow -- NO SIGNIFICANT IRREGULARITIES IN THE 2025 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - DOMINIK BATORSKI ON THE MASZ PRAWO WIEDZIEĆ PORTAL: “We conducted an analysis aimed at identifying statistically significant anomalies and potential irregularities at the level of polling station commissions. Its results indicate a lack of significant irregularities in the 2025 presidential election.” -- THEY DID NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE ELECTION RESULT - DOMINIK BATORSKI CONTINUES: “The level of anomalies found shows that even if some occurred, they did not have a significant impact on the election result. Their scale is significantly smaller than the difference in the number of votes obtained by both candidates, which is almost 370,000.” -- THE SCALE OF THESE QUESTIONABLE RESULTS IS SMALL - STATES DOMINIK BATORSKI: “Significant anomalies concerning Rafał Trzaskowski's result occur in only a few commissions. These are commissions where Trzaskowski received significantly fewer votes in the second round than in the first – they are illustrated by the points below the red line. The results recorded in these commissions raise justified doubts and should be thoroughly checked. These cases were widely discussed in the media. However, the scale of these questionable results is small.” -- IT IS UNLIKELY THAT FALSIFICATIONS SUCH AS ADDING VOTES OCCURRED - DOMINIK BATORSKI AGAIN: “In the commissions where Trzaskowski won in the second round, turnout increased by 8.2%, and in those where Nawrocki won, by 6.7%. This data indicates that it is unlikely that falsifications involving adding votes occurred.” https://mamprawowiedziec.pl/czytelnia/artykul/anomalie-wyborcze-raczej-nie -- MUCH INDICATES THAT ROMAN GIERTYCH IS RIGHT AND THE VOTES NEED TO BE RECOUNTED - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Activists associated with Romuald Starosielec, representing the Movement for the Repair of Poland, headed as many as 702 circuit election commissions – and representatives of 'pretend' candidates from the far-right were more numerous in the commissions. Much indicates that Roman Giertych is right and the votes need to be recounted.” -- IF THE SUPREME COURT DOES NOT UPHOLD IT, THEN THE ELECTION RESULT MAY STILL RAISE DOUBTS - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “This second postulate seems the most reasonable. If the Supreme Court does not uphold it, then the election result may still raise doubts. A recount of votes according to the proposal of Trzaskowski's campaign team may also serve as proof that – despite irregularities – Karol Nawrocki's victory is beyond reproach, because the scale of errors, or even falsifications, is small. But to know this, the votes must be recounted. This will also have another important effect: the certainty of all voters that their vote was counted correctly will increase citizens' trust in the electoral process.” -- THE ONLY WAY TO SALVAGE THE SITUATION IS A DECISION TO RECOUNT THE VOTES NOT ONLY IN THE 13 SPECIFIED POLLING STATIONS, BUT IN ALL THOSE WHERE – ACCORDING TO TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN TEAM – STATISTICAL ANOMALIES OCCURRED - WIELOWIEYSKA'S CONCLUSION IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “In such a scenario, the only way to salvage the situation is a decision to recount the votes not only in the 13 specified polling stations, but in all those where – according to Trzaskowski's campaign team – statistical anomalies occurred. We, the citizens, have the right to know exactly how many votes the two candidates who reached the second round of the presidential election received.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32030029,wielowieyska-prezesa-ruchu-kontroli-wyborow-po-cichu-napominano.html -- FORMER AILMENTS QUICKLY MANIFESTED, THE PRIME MINISTER'S "DISAPPEARANCE", LACKLUSTER MINISTERIAL ACTIVITY, ABSENCE OF POLITICAL CONSULTATIONS - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “After the 2023 elections, it seemed that Civic Platform and Tusk himself had understood the essence of new politics, but old ailments quickly manifested themselves: the prime minister's 'disappearance,' lacklustre ministerial activity, absence of political consultations, complete disinterest in social communication and the image of the government.” -- TUSK'S PARTY OFTEN GIVES THE IMPRESSION OF BEING LETHARGIC, AWKWARD, AND ARROGANT AT THE SAME TIME. AND TIMES HAVE CHANGED - MARIUSZ JANICKI CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Tusk's party often gives the impression of being lethargic, awkward, and arrogant at the same time. And times have changed. Eight years of PiS rule, besides damaging the democratic system, which may still be repaired someday, have brought other changes, probably irreversible. It's about the very way politics is conducted: the government becomes a permanent campaign headquarters, and governing is a continuous campaign, waged around the clock using modern instruments, especially in the digital sphere. The information policy of the government and Civic Platform has so far been a negation of these methods, and Trzaskowski's campaign a showcase of old-fashioned amateurism. It is the conservative, supposedly 'provincial' groups that prove to be much more efficient in this area, and their political marketers are more technologically advanced. The influence of PiS and Mentzen's online propaganda, especially on young men, proved decisive in the presidential election results; in their statements, for example, in the very interesting program 'Czarno na białym' on TVN24, one could hear literal copies of right-wing narratives.” -- THE FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION IS DIFFERENT: DOES TUSK HIMSELF STILL BELIEVE IN HIS CONTINGENCY PLAN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WINNING IN TWO YEARS - MARIUSZ JANICKI AGAIN: “But the fundamental question is different: does Tusk himself still believe in his contingency plan and the possibility of winning in two years, or – as in 2014, when he left for Brussels – does he again think that the winds have changed and nothing can be done about it. Much will become clear in the coming months, based on actions, not words.” -- THE SCENARIO THAT AT SOME POINT BEFORE THE ELECTIONS TUSK WILL HAND OVER THE PREMIERSHIP TO SOMEONE ELSE CANNOT BE RULED OUT - JANICKI'S CONCLUSION: “The scenario that at some point before the elections Tusk will hand over the premiership to someone else cannot be ruled out either. In any case, the path to success is winding and narrow, and the highway leads to the abyss. If Tusk were to get out of such a predicament, he wouldn't have to do anything else.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2304345,1,rzad-tuska-potrzebuje-wstrzasu-kaczynski-dostal-butle-z-tlenem-moze-uzyc-metody-na-skorpiona.read -- BIRTHDAYS: Rafał Zakrzewski, Krzysztof Żuk, Krzysztof Pusz, Wojciech Filemonowicz, Mateusz Pacewicz, Edyta Hołdyńska, Andrzej Owczarek, Wawrzyniec Smoczyński, Krzysztof Iszkowski. SUNDAY: Henryk Woźniakowski, Adam Szostkiewicz, Elżbieta Rafalska, Andrzej Machowski, Kazimiera Szczuka, Magdalena Rigamonti, Ireneusz Krzemiński.

Łukasz Mężyk