state of play: 06/12/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Did Poles Really Await a Banner Saying the Government Has a Majority? Baczyński on Onet: It Was Like Flat Cola

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SZEFERNAKER: PLN 23 MILLION FROM PUBLIC COLLECTION IS A RECORD FOR POLISH CAMPAIGNS. PIS ADDED A MILLION. IT WAS A CIVIC CAMPAIGN - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/06/12/ -- TVN24 CONTINUOUSLY SHOWS A BANNER STATING THE GOVERNMENT HAS OBTAINED A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE. BUT DID ANYONE IN POLAND LIVE BY THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THE GOVERNMENT HAS A MAJORITY? -- DONALD TUSK'S EXPOSÉ WAS A BIT LIKE FLAT COLA. THE TASTE IS SIMILAR, BUT YOU CAN FEEL THE PLEASURE OF DRINKING IS ALREADY HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE - MATEUSZ BACZYŃSKI ON ONET: “Donald Tusk’s exposé was a bit like flat cola. The taste is similar, but you can feel the pleasure of drinking is already highly questionable. Scaremongering about PiS, invoking the KPO (National Recovery Plan) and the visa scandal, or blaming all problems on communication issues are worn-out slogans. It's not that these issues aren't important. It's that voters expect a new beginning, and today they simply didn't get it. The coalition has shown unity, and that's good news for Donald Tusk. The problem is that one gets the impression this is an alliance focused on survival, not on changing Poland.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/zla-wiadomosc-dla-donalda-tuska-a-to-dopiero-poczatek-klopotow-komentarz/2ngh18n,79cfc278 -- THE MOST IMPORTANT MOMENTS FOR THE COALITION ARE YET TO COME. INCLUDING THE ANSWER TO WHETHER TUSK CAN BE ITS LEADER - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “If anyone expected a new beginning after Donald Tusk's speech before the vote of confidence, they might be disappointed. But the parliamentary spectacle was what it had to be: a ritual confirmation of leadership and a temporary cessation of disputes. The most important moments for the coalition are yet to come. Including the answer to whether Tusk can be its leader.” -- THE FACT IS THAT FOR THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF, DONALD TUSK HAS ONLY SIMULATED BEING A LEADER - DANIELEWSKI CONTINUES IN OKO: “The fact is that for the last year and a half, Donald Tusk has only simulated being a leader. He positioned himself in the comfortable role of a patriarch who, with condescension, amusement, and sometimes irritation, watches his grandchildren pulling each other's hair on the carpet and secretly putting pins under each other's bottoms. Once in a blue moon, he grabbed someone by the scruff of the neck, gave them a slap, or shouted like a father from a stereotypical story: stop fighting, and I don't care who started it. When he did get more actively involved, he did so chaotically, often hindering rather than helping, as was the case between the first and second rounds of the elections. He did not set strategic directions, tasks, or goals; he did not speak firmly about what should and should not be done.” -- NO ONE WILL REMEMBER THIS SPEECH THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW - WRITES DANIELEWSKI: “Of course, it could have been delivered in a slightly better or slightly worse style. Donald Tusk's chaotic and digressive speech, which began the debate on the vote of confidence, meant that the latter option came to pass. But also, between us, no one will remember this speech the day after tomorrow, and the future of the October 15th coalition will be decided elsewhere entirely.” -- AS THE PRIME MINISTER'S CLOSE FRIEND, ZBIGNIEW BONIEK, LIKES TO SAY: YOU WANTED A BIKE, SO PEDAL - DANIELEWSKI'S CONCLUSION IN OKO: “But the time of governing without risk for the October 15th coalition ended with the victory of Karol Nawrocki. Today, the alternative for it is simple: risk or rot. The move is up to Donald Tusk. As the prime minister's close friend, Zbigniew Boniek, likely likes to say: you wanted a bike, so pedal.” https://oko.press/slabe-przemowienie-tuska-ale-nie-ma-to-znaczenia -- THE SCALE OF MOBILIZATION AGAINST HIS CANDIDACY EXCEEDED ALL EXPECTATIONS. IT FAR SURPASSED THE LEVEL OF MOBILIZATION THAT LAW AND JUSTICE WAS CAPABLE OF EARLIER - SAYS PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH NATALIA SAWKA IN OKO.PRESS: “I admit, self-critically, that I did not expect such a turn of events. In my predictions, Rafał Trzaskowski achieved a result close to what he finally obtained, with comparable, perhaps slightly lower, turnout. However, the scale of mobilization against his candidacy exceeded all expectations. It far surpassed the level of mobilization that Law and Justice was capable of as a party earlier. A gigantic percentage, at least 40% of those voting in the second round for Karol Nawrocki, are people who are not regular PiS voters.” -- THE MECHANISM OF MOBILIZING VOTERS AGAINST CIVIC PLATFORM HAS BEEN REVIVED, AND HAS EVEN UNDERGONE A KIND OF REVITALIZATION - CHWEDORUK FURTHER TELLS SAWKA IN OKO: “The mechanism of mobilizing voters against the economically liberal, and sometimes worldview-liberal, Civic Platform has been revived, and has even undergone a kind of revitalization. We are functioning in a very stable party system. Before the first round, many predicted the end of the famous duopoly that has divided the Polish political scene for two decades. Meanwhile, after the second round, it turns out that this political 'deceased' is doing quite well and is not heading for the afterlife anytime soon.” -- THE RESULT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WAS PERCEIVED AS A YELLOW CARD, AND MORE FOR THE GOVERNMENT THAN FOR TRZASKOWSKI HIMSELF - CHWEDORUK STILL WITH SAWKA: “To remain in the position it found itself in after the elections is to remain in a political stalemate, because in such a situation, the weaker party is always the government, especially with a presidential veto that realy limits its effectiveness. The result of the presidential elections was perceived as a yellow card, and more for the government than for Trzaskowski himself.” -- THE OPINIONS THAT SOMEONE NEW SHOULD HEAD THE GOVERNMENT ARE NOT SURPRISING - CHWEDORUK CLAIMS IN OKO: “In the face of the upcoming elections in 2027 and demographic changes in the electorate, as well as high participation of the young generation, the opinions that someone new should head the government are not surprising.” https://oko.press/polityczna-ukladanka-tuska-koalicja-rekonstrukcja-zmiana-premiera -- TUSK HAS A MAJORITY. BUT DOES HE HAVE A VISION? - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The Prime Minister's tactics can be described as a survival strategy, not a political offensive. The Prime Minister is to announce a new beginning on the occasion of the government reconstruction announced for the summer, and on Wednesday there was no new beginning.” -- IF NAWROCKI'S PRESIDENCY TURNS OUT TO BE STRATEGICALLY AMBIGUOUS, IT WILL BE TROUBLE FOR KO - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “If Nawrocki's presidency turns out to be purely PiS-aligned, it will be good news for Donald Tusk, who thrives in polarization. However, if it is strategically ambiguous, it will be trouble for KO. And it will force the entire October 15th coalition to move beyond existing polarizing patterns.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42511591-michal-szuldrzynski-donald-tusk-ma-wiekszosc-ale-czy-ma-wizje -- WHY DID DONALD TUSK BOAST ABOUT THE PIS GOVERNMENT'S SUCCESSES? - ROBERT GWIAZDOWSKI IN RZ: “But the humble prime minister, instead of announcing the government's successes earlier, delayed doing so until now. And now he has boasted. The successes of the PiS government: increased defense spending, investments in border protection, the 800+ program, decreased unemployment, wage growth, reduced VAT gap. He could have also added a few successes of his own government – like lowering VAT for the beauty industry. Or removing Pendolino trains to some Polish cities with PiS electorate from the schedule, because thanks to this, there will be funds for the announced connection to the ski resorts in Italy and Austria during the winter season.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42511071-robert-gwiazdowski-dlaczego-donald-tusk-chwalil-sie-sukcesami-rzadu-pis -- DONALD TUSK HAS NO PLAN B. THE GOVERNMENT WON'T GET FAR LIKE THIS - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “For now, Tusk has bought himself some time. However, the Prime Minister cannot assume that now is the time for rest and holidays. The government must dedicate the holiday period to particularly intensive work, to preparing and presenting a new beginning, which is not visible today. Because by repeating how bad things were under PiS, the government won't get far.” -- TUSK DELIVERED A WEAK SPEECH – ESPECIALLY REMEMBERING HIS RHETORICAL ABILITIES – MAJMUREK CONTINUES IN NEWSWEEK: “Tusk delivered a weak speech – especially when one remembers his rhetorical abilities – in which he spoke mainly about the eight years of PiS rule and how his government must strive to settle accounts with that period and clean up the mess it inherited. However, a year and a half has passed since PiS lost power, and the 2015-23 period is of decreasing interest to people beyond the most engaged KO electorate. It can be assumed that on Wednesday, voters would have preferred to hear what plans Tusk has for the second half of his term, rather than what he thinks about PiS – because the latter is probably quite clear to every Pole who is even superficially interested in politics.” -- ON WEDNESDAY, HE DIDN'T ENTIRELY LOOK LIKE SUCH A LEADER - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “Is Tusk a leader capable of ensuring such a new beginning? On Wednesday, he didn't entirely look like such a leader. But for now, there is no better alternative in the ruling camp, and in 2023, Tusk showed that he can be a master of comebacks.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/donald-tusk-kupil-sobie-troche-czasu-nowego-otwarcia-nie-bylo/pd9j8x6,452ad802 -- THEY MUST CHANGE ANTI-PIS TO ANTI-PIC - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “In times of post-politics, losers always lose. Even against professional liars, but they at least know how to create the illusion of competence, desire, enthusiasm, moral righteousness, and even feign effectiveness. A loser, on the other hand, simply 'fails to deliver', even with very high self-esteem.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-antypic-zamiast-anty-pis,nId,21825506 -- BIRTHDAYS: Grzegorz Sroczyński, Krystyna Sibińska, Witold Koziński, Marcin Makowski.

Łukasz Mężyk