state of play: 05/14/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Adrianomentum, Crowds in Wrocław. Can Zandberg Overtake Hołownia and Biejat? JKB: Trump Isn't Mad, He's Seeking a Solution for the Properly Diagnosed Chinese Threat

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— ANOTHER MILLION JUMPED IN, STILL APPROX. 6 MLN PLN SHORT FOR IGNAS' GENE THERAPY IN THE USA:
https://www.siepomaga.pl/ratuj-ignasia

— HALF A MILLION VIEWS OF CALLS FROM VIEWERS TO MAZUREK AND STANOWSKI AFTER 10 HOURS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=warAhdsH6zU

— KORWIN-MIKKE CALLED STANOWSKI:
https://x.com/OficjalneZero/status/1922376010596544553

— TODAY AT 8 PM STANOWSKI ON RYMANOWSKI: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4vybLWY1Vw

— POLL: RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI LOSING, KAROL NAWROCKI GAINING, FAVORITE UNCHANGED – HEADLINE IN RZ: "Karol Nawrocki's ratings have increased compared to the IBRIS poll for 'Rzeczpospolita' from April. Today, he can count on 25.2% support (it was 22.6% in April). The leader of the presidential pack is losing – 32.3% of respondents want to vote for Rafał Trzaskowski in the first round today (a month ago – 36.2%). However, this doesn't change the trend."
https://www.rp.pl/wybory/art42273801-nowy-sondaz-prezydencki-rzeczpospolitej-nie-pozostawia-zludzen-kto-jest-faworytem-wyborow-ale

— IBRIS FOR RZ:
Trzaskowski 32.3 (-3.9)
Nawrocki 25.2 (+2.6)
Mentzen 11.2 (-6.2)
Hołownia 7.9 (-0.4)
Biejat 5.5 (+2.9)
Zandberg 4.1 (+2)
Braun 2.5
Stanowski 2.4
Senyszyn 1
Jakubiak 0.9
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42274581-michal-plocinski-najnowszy-sondaz-pokazuje-jak-ciekawa-zrobila-sie-kampania-na-ostatniej-prostej

— ZANDBERG CAN CATCH UP WITH THESE VOTES, PROBABLY EVEN HAS A CHANCE TO OVERTAKE THE CANDIDATE OF WLODZIMIERZ CZARZASTY'S PARTY – MICHAL PLOCINSKI IN RZ: "Zandberg can catch up with these votes, and probably even has a chance to overtake the candidate of Włodzimierz Czarzasty's party. He would then strengthen his Razem party and build a strong left-wing opposition to Donald Tusk's government. But Biejat also has strong cards, as Trzaskowski, who is moving to the right, is ceding many (how many?) strongly socially liberal voters to her, who like Tusk and have no interest in any Razem party. Well, things are getting interesting – perhaps most interesting at the bottom of the rankings."
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42274581-michal-plocinski-najnowszy-sondaz-pokazuje-jak-ciekawa-zrobila-sie-kampania-na-ostatniej-prostej

— CROWDS AT ADRIAN ZANDBERG'S RALLY IN WROCŁAW, PREVIOUSLY IN OPOLE:
https://x.com/partiarazem/status/1922360650480705885

— ADRIAN ZANDBERG AT A CAMPAIGN RALLY IN WROCŁAW. SEVERAL THOUSAND PEOPLE IN PLAC SOLNY – GAZETA WROCŁAWSKA: "- We are the 20th largest economy in the world, so we can afford for the young generation to have a safe roof over their heads, and not give half of what they earn to the developer mafia. We must launch social housing construction, we can afford it. We are in Wrocław, you know that a strong and efficient state cannot be one that has been colonized by 'Mr. Sutryks'. Politics must be honest and based on professional principles. Let's end this rot in public institutions – adds Adrian Zandberg." https://gazetawroclawska.pl/adrian-zandberg-na-wiecu-wyborczym-we-wroclawiu-kilka-tysiecy-osob-na-placu-solnym/ar/c1p2-27579475

— "ZANDBERG-MANIA" IS REAPING ITS REWARDS: THE CROWD OF VOTERS DIDN'T WANT TO LET ADRIAN GO TO CZĘSTOCHOWA, WE'LL HOLD YOU TO YOUR WORD – SEE YOU IN WROCŁAW IN THE SUMMER! AND THIS SUNDAY AT THE BALLOT BOXES!
https://x.com/kasl_97/status/1922401465756205503

— TWEETS ABOUT ZANDBERG'S AURA:
https://x.com/a_gracjan/status/1922414559639277814

— CROWD DANCING TO "I VOTE FOR ADRIAN NANANA NANA":
https://x.com/Dominikz_razem/status/1922363763631530322

— "I WILL BE OBLIGATED" – ZANDBERG'S INTERVENTION WITH DEPUTY MARSHAL ZGORZELSKI REGARDING MARCELINA ZAWISZA BEING DENIED THE FLOOR ON HEALTH INSURANCE CONTRIBUTIONS AND REDUCING NFZ FINANCING IS BEING REMEMBERED: https://x.com/MrMistrzowski/status/1922236905669775730

— ZANDBERG RECOMMENDS A MEDITATION SESSION HE CONDUCTS ON YOUTUBE: "CLOSE YOUR EYES, TAKE A DEEP BREATH, RELAX. LOOK TO THE FUTURE"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&si=UOgPAlC52C7LEEEm&v=e53HvIXERSs&feature=youtu.be

— ZANDBERG RECEIVING A HATSUNE MIKU FIGURINE AS A GIFT AT A CAMPAIGN RALLY IN WROCŁAW:
https://x.com/myszkikiszki/status/1922386945956597887

— ANALYST DANIEL PERS ON ZANDBERG'S POSITION: The competition for the dark horse of these elections in cities is considered to be decided. The question is whether this is also the case in smaller agglomerations (or whether this title will be divided in this way in these elections).
https://x.com/PersElection/status/1922371369884418176

— KAMIL CAŁUS FROM OSW ON WHO GEORGE SIMON IS, THE FAVORITE OF SUNDAY'S ELECTIONS IN ROMANIA: Firstly, the current poll leader (and head of the AUR party) is indeed radical, a nationalist and a conservative, and also moderately friendly towards Ukraine, but he is certainly not "far-right." Georgescu is far-right, and Diana Sosoaka is also far-right.
https://x.com/KamilCaus/status/1901684262681670065

— PATRYK SŁOWIK: WHY ARE OUR RULERS INSULTING THE LIKELY FUTURE PRESIDENT OF ROMANIA WITH FALSE ACCUSATIONS OF BEING PRO-PUTIN? HOW IS THIS SUPPOSED TO HELP POLAND?
https://x.com/PatrykSlowik/status/1922373447197278282

— JAN KRZYSZTOF BIELECKI IN PULS BIZNESU: Trump isn't mad, he's seeking a solution for the properly diagnosed Chinese threat. The EU, full of conflicting interests, must learn self-sufficiency, and Poland must support domestic companies. And have a weaker president.
https://x.com/pbzatonski/status/1922361061186965956

— DANIEL NAWROCKI CONDUCTED AN INTERVIEW WITH A CONVICTED CRIMINAL CURRENTLY IN PRISON, WHO WAS SENTENCED FOR TAKING OVER A STUDIO APARTMENT IN GDAŃSK FROM A PERSON WITH INTELLECTUAL DISABILITIES – KRZYSZTOF KATKA AND WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: "But he omitted the verdict. Nor did he mention that the individual is associated with a boxing club supported by the Institute of National Remembrance, a friend of Karol Nawrocki. Thanks to Daniel Nawrocki, readers could see the sympathetic side of Paweł B., have doubts about the validity of the verdict, and read about his selfless help for those in need. However, there was not a word about the fraud for which he was convicted. And he took advantage of a person with intellectual disabilities to take away her 27.6 sqm studio apartment in Gdańsk." https://trojmiasto.wyborcza.pl/trojmiasto/7,35612,31930602,wiezienny-wywiad-syna-karola-nawrockiego-w-tle-kolejna-kawalerka.html

— NAWROCKI'S STUDIO APARTMENT IS NOT JUST A CAMPAIGN SCANDAL, IT IS ALSO SYSTEMIC PATHOLOGY IN MANY MUNICIPALITIES – ANTON AMBROZIAK IN OKO.PRESS: "This procedure has changed the structure of the housing market (to ownership-based), left the most needy without support, and deprived everyone without exception of the best price regulator on the market: a state player ensuring balance and alternatives for the less affluent. Buying municipal apartments with a discount of 10, 20, 30, or 40 percent of their value is also a source of generational frustration and a living axis of conflict and misunderstanding between younger and older Poles." https://oko.press/prywatyzacja-mienia-publicznego-kawalerka-nawrockiego

— "I DON'T LIKE MAKING THIS TOPIC THE END OF THE CAMPAIGN, BUT I HAVE NO INTENTION OF DEFENDING IT" BOSAK ON NAWROCKI'S APARTMENT, "THIS IS WHAT EFFECTIVENESS LOOKS LIKE IN POLITICS." SZEFERNAKER ON "POLITICAL SUCCESS OF NAWROCKI'S VISIT TO THE WHITE HOUSE" – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/05/14/

— JANÓW LUBELSKI DURING THE ENDING ELECTION CAMPAIGN WAS VISITED BY ONLY ONE CANDIDATE: SŁAWOMIR MENTZEN. THE CROWD PRACTICALLY POURED OUT OF THE MARKET NEXT TO THE BUS STATION. SEVERAL HUNDRED PEOPLE CAME TO THE MEETING WITH THE CONFEDERATION CANDIDATE FROM THE GODZISZÓW MUNICIPALITY – JACEK BRZUSZKIEWICZ IN GW: "Because PiS and their Kaczyński are embarrassing. How long can we watch this deceitful bunch of crooks and schemers who had eight years to put Poland in order, but only took for themselves – they argue in a shop in Godziszów. And they mock those who hung Nawrocki's banners on their fences." https://lublin.wyborcza.pl/lublin/7,48724,31930178,w-bastionie-prawicy-zmiana-lidera-bus-przywiozl-plakaty-nawrockiego.html

— THEY CRITICIZED PIS FOR BRINGING MILITARY EQUIPMENT TO PICNICS. THEY ARE DOING THE SAME – MARCIN WYRWAŁ, EDYTA ŻEMŁA IN ONET: "Military picnics with the participation of PiS politicians before the parliamentary elections became an element of the election campaign. Politicians from today's ruling coalition sharply criticized this practice. However, today they themselves appear at similar events, which are also organized based on a regulation issued by the former Minister of Defense Mariusz Błaszczak. We describe the background of one such event organized in April near Międzyrzecz at a private shooting range in the village of Nietoperek." https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetpoznan/krytykowali-pis-za-sciaganie-wojskowego-sprzetu-na-pikniki-robia-to-samo/rr3hpr4,79cfc278

— IF KAROL NAWROCKI IS SHOWN IN THE REPUBLIC NEWS PROGRAM, IT IS EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVELY. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI ON TVN OR TVP 1 – PAWEŁ KAPUSTA: "Researchers from UMCS in Lublin watched television for 174 days. Four main news programs on the largest stations were analyzed: '19:30' on TVP 1, 'Fakty' on TVN, 'Wydarzenia' on Polsat, and 'Dzisiaj informacje' on Republika. If Karol Nawrocki is shown in the Republika news program, it is exclusively positive. The same is true for Rafał Trzaskowski on TVN or TVP 1: " https://x.com/pawel_kapusta/status/1922342423050465676

— BIRTHDAYS: Piotr Ikonowicz, Krzysztof Kwiatkowski, Kamil Zaradkiewicz, Andrzej Person, Jarosław Pietras, Barbara Włodarczyk.


Łukasz Mężyk