state of play: 03/20/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Reiter - Don't Offend Trump, Don't Abandon the US Alliance; Wielowieyska - Polarization Offers a Chance to Avoid Nawrocki Overtaking Mentzen; Majmurek - Hołownia Heading for Inevitable Defeat

Łukasz Mężyk

— TWO HEADS IN THE UK – DAILY TELEGRAPH IN ITS MORNING NEWSLETTER: “Sir Keir Starmer has been told that the NHS and police must record people's biological sex, not just their declared gender. It is not the first time the Prime Minister has refused to grasp the nettle when faced with the issue of transgender people.”

— YOU NEED STRONG NERVES TO DEAL WITH DONALD TRUMP. DON'T FLATTER HIM, DON'T PRETEND TO BE DELIGHTED, BUT ALSO DON'T BE OFFENDED, BECAUSE WE'LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH HIM FOR FOUR YEARS – JANUSZ REITER IN A CONVERSATION WITH BEATA MACIEJEWSKA IN GW: “This is the language of the US President, so you need strong nerves. Don't flatter him, don't pretend to be delighted, but also don't be offended, because we'll have to deal with him for four years. And when Donald Trump says he has a special fondness for Poland, take it at face value.”

– A PITY, UNFORTUNATE. IT'S STILL NOT A REASON TO ABANDON THE ALLIANCE WITH AMERICA – REITER IN RESPONSE TO MACIEJEWSKA'S STATEMENT THAT DIVIDING EUROPE IS ALSO IN THE INTEREST OF THE CURRENT AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION AND TRUMP IS ANTI-EUROPEAN.
https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,31780393,janusz-reiter-respektu-trumpa-nie-dostaje-sie-w-prezencie.html

— CBA AND THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE, THEY EVEN TRACKED DOWN THE MOST ABSURD LEADS. THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF PURCHASING A PEDIGREE CAT WERE CHECKED, AMONG OTHER THINGS – WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “In the next part, we show how Czarnecki was pursued abroad – and how serious services, the CBA with the prosecutor's office, tracked down even the most absurd leads. The circumstances of one of the banker's friends purchasing a pedigree cat were checked, among other things.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31782532,afera-getbacku-jak-cba-szukajac-czarneckiego-wpadla-na-trop.html

— THE INTERROGATION MINUTES SHOULD DOCUMENT THE PROCEEDINGS WITH "POSSIBLE ACCURACY" – GRAŻYNA ZAWADKA IN RZ: “During the interrogation, the prosecutor reportedly ordered a break of several minutes for rest. However, the minutes are silent on this, and there should be a record of it. Article 148 of the Code of Criminal Procedure states that the minutes should contain information about the course of the proceedings with "possible accuracy." Why did Prosecutor Wrzosek omit the break? – Prosecutor Izabela Dołgań-Szymańska, acting spokesperson for the Warsaw District Prosecutor's Office, informs us: “Prosecutor Wrzosek is on vacation until Friday. An answer today is impossible.”
https://www.rp.pl/kraj/art41969951-watpliwa-przerwa-w-przesluchaniu-barbary-skrzypek

— POLITICIANS WERE GENUINELY SHOCKED BY THIS DEATH. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, THE SEAT OF POWER (NOWOGRODZKA) CAME TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THESE CIRCUMSTANCES OFFER A CHANCE FOR A NEW OPENING FOR NAWROCKI'S CAMPAIGN – DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Skrzypek – whose existence the public learned about from Robert Górski's very popular series 'Ucho prezesa' (The President's Ear) – was well-liked in the PiS camp. Politicians were genuinely shocked by this death. But at the same time, Nowogrodzka concluded that these circumstances offered a chance for a new opening for Nawrocki's campaign.”

— INCREASING EMOTIONS OFFERS A CHANCE TO AVOID TOTAL COMPROMISE FOR THE CAMPAIGN STAFF AND NOWOGRODZKA, WHICH WOULD BE NAWROCKI BEING OVERTAKEN BY MENTZEN – WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER IN GW: “Political instinct tells him that here is a story that will help give the campaign new momentum. It will mobilize the slightly bored PiS electorate and push them to the polls. It will help polarize the political scene more strongly, stir up emotions, and raise the temperature of the conflict. And this, in turn, offers a chance to avoid total compromise for the campaign staff and Nowogrodzka, which would be Nawrocki being overtaken by Mentzen.”

— I WRITE THIS WITH FULL SYMPATHY FOR THE FAMILY, BUT THIS IS HOW POLITICS WORKS – IT MAY HARM MENTZEN MORE THAN TRZASKOWSKI – STILL WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “The greater the polarization, the greater the mobilization of the electorates of the two largest camps, the smaller the chances for those politicians who try to wedge themselves between two entrenched opponents, namely PiS and KO. And in this context, the case of Barbara Skrzypek – which I write with full sympathy for the family, but this is how politics works – may harm Mentzen more than Rafał Trzaskowski.”

— TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMP: DID WRZOSEK HAVE TO HELP GIERTYCH IN THIS INVESTIGATION? – WIELOWIEYSKA WRITES AGAIN IN GW: “But this does not mean that Trzaskowski's campaign staff can sleep soundly. Fears are heard that this matter will harm him. 'Didn't we tell you?' – comes from that part of the Civic Coalition that was not enthusiastic about the idea of entrusting the politically sensitive investigation into the 'twin towers' to Wrzosek. And as if that were not enough, to have the even more prominent Roman Giertych assist in this.”

— THE DEBATE MAY SERIOUSLY INFLUENCE THE RESULT AND ROUNDS – WIELOWIEYSKA'S CONCLUSION: “With so many unknowns, the effect of the televised debate with the participation of all candidates will be very important. In reality, it – although many commentators dismiss television, proclaiming the primacy of online campaigns – may seriously influence the result of the first round and decide who will participate in the final showdown with Trzaskowski: the candidate of PiS or Konfederacja.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31780981,wielowieyska-jest-ktos-komu-sprawa-barbary-skrzypek-moze-bardziej.html

— HOŁOWNIA'S WITHDRAWAL FROM THE ELECTIONS IN EXCHANGE FOR THE POSITION OF MARSHAL OF THE SEJM UNTIL THE END OF THE TERM? A CLEAR ANSWER FROM HENNIG-KLOSKI – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/03/20/

— HOŁOWNIA IS HEADING FOR INEVITABLE DEFEAT – JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “Karol Nawrocki's campaign staff, disheartened by how their protégé's campaign is going, can at least take comfort in one thing: among the candidates from the first political league, there is certainly someone doing worse than the president of the Institute of National Remembrance.

— WITHDRAWING FROM THE ELECTIONS WILL ALLOW TO AVOID AN UNPLEASANT ELECTORAL VERIFICATION. BUT THE EFFECT MAY BE SIMILAR, VOTERS WOULD READ IT AS RAISING THE WHITE FLAG – MAJMUREK FURTHER: “So, Hołownia faces only bad options. Fourth place and support around 5% will be a complete defeat, signifying the end of Trzecia Droga, and perhaps Polski 2050. PSL, which today is already not very involved in the campaign for the Hołownia they officially support, will start looking for a new coalition partner. And the MPs of Polski 2050, who have grown fond of the Sejm, will look for places on more promising electoral lists. Withdrawing from the elections will allow to avoid an unpleasant electoral verification. But the effect may be similar, voters would read it as raising the white flag and admitting that Hołownia's project has ended. Much can still change by May, but today this seems to be the most probable election result for the leader of Polski 2050.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/szymon-holownia-zmierza-do-nieuniknionej-kleski-sondaze-go-pograzaja-analiza/w4ty16t

— THEY MANAGED TO TAKE OVER THE TELEVISION IN TWO DAYS, BUT THEY CAN'T HANDLE ABORTION – KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “– That's not true – says Pięta – I understand all the complications, but they managed to take over the television in two days. What could have been done from the beginning and what simply needs to be done is the education of gynecologists, who precisely because abortion has become a political issue, are not learning how to perform it, and until recently, most of them had no idea that medical abortion was possible. Studies are needed, perhaps internships in foreign clinics, to raise the level of knowledge of Polish doctors.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/telewizje-umieli-przejac-w-dwa-dni-ale-z-aborcja-sobie-nie-radza/

— BIRTHDAYS: Andżelika Możdżanowska.


Łukasz Mężyk