state of play: 03/17/2025

STATE OF PLAY: IBRiS poll in Rzeczpospolita reveals 57.5% feel worse off, Flieger: A dead end of accountability, WP on Totalizator, GW on Szejna's troubles

Łukasz Mężyk

— RESULTS OF THE KRAKOW BY-ELECTION:
Monika Piątkowska – (Civic Coalition) – government coalition candidate – 49.76%
Mariusz Małodziński – candidate supported by Law and Justice – 31.75%
Adam Berkowicz – supported by Confederation – 10.54%
Ewa Sładek from The Left – 7.95%
Turnout: 16.33%

— 2023 RESULTS: 
Klich 70.9%
Małodziński 29.1%

— KAMIŃSKI: IF THE ELECTION IS A REFERENDUM ON TUSK'S GOVERNMENT, WE ARE LIKELY TO LOSE IT – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/03/17/

— POLES ARE LIVING WORSE AND WORSE. IBRIS POLL A WARNING FOR THE GOVERNMENT – MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “As much as 57.5% of respondents surveyed by IBRiS claim that their households have become poorer over the past year and they are living worse. A deterioration in living conditions is observed primarily among rural residents (67%), but also by over half of small and large cities (55% each). As many as 93% of PiS voters from 2023 and only 19% of Civic Coalition voters from those elections are convinced that they are living worse. The majority of Civic Coalition voters feel that they are living the same (57%).”

— THE RESULT CONTRASTS WITH CBOS AND GUS DATA – MARCIN DUMA QUOTED BY RZECZPOSPOLITA: “The results of this study certainly contrast with CBOS studies, GUS data – those that show consumer sentiment, current and future. The ones that the ruling party boasts about, and which concerned February. And which at the same time gave the ruling party hope – says IBRiS president Marcin Duma to us.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41943341-polakom-zyje-sie-coraz-gorzej-sondaz-ibris-ostrzezeniem-dla-rzadu

— THE INTERROGATION COST HER SO MUCH THAT WHEN SHE LEFT THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE, SHE COULDN'T CATCH HER BREATH. SHE WAS AFRAID SHE WOULD FAINT. She confided that after it, she felt absolutely physically and mentally destroyed – according to the account of a person who was very close to Barbara Skrzypek in recent days, maintaining almost daily contact with her – Tomasz Grodecki in Niezależna.
https://niezalezna.pl/polityka/byla-zdenerwowana-przesluchaniem-nie-mogla-zlapac-oddechu-mowila-ze-jest-zniszczona-bliscy-pani-barbary/539543

— NEITHER PARTY, […], LODGED SUCH A REQUEST FOR AUDIO-VIDEO RECORDING OF THIS INTERROGATION. THIS INTERROGATION WAS NOT RECORDED – PROSECUTOR EWA WRZOSEK ON ONET: “Prosecutor Ewa Wrzosek insists that everything is reflected in the interrogation protocol. Asked if there is a recording of the interrogation, she replies: — Neither party, […], lodged such a request for audio-video recording of this interrogation. This interrogation was not recorded — she answers. Asked if transcripts of the interrogation will be published, she says that the matter “will be considered” if the injured party in the ongoing proceedings lodges such a request.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/prok-ewa-wrzosek-o-przesluchaniu-barbary-skrzypek-ujawnia-szczegoly/lph8vr7,79cfc278

— WE CONFIRMED THE VERSION OF BARBARA SKRZYPPEK'S TESTIMONY, WHICH IS TROUBLESOME FOR KACZYŃSKI, IN SEVERAL SOURCES – WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “It concerns the power of attorney to represent her at an extraordinary shareholders' meeting on February 2, 2018. The document allowed the PiS leader to chair the shareholders' meeting of Srebrna company (Kaczyński was there alone), where a resolution was passed to establish an entity named Nuneaton by Srebrna, headed by Austrian businessman Gerald Birgfellner.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31773182,co-zeznala-barbara-skrzypek.html

— THIS IS – IN MY OPINION – TOO LITTLE TO CLAIM THAT PROSECUTOR EWA WRZOSEK IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEATH OF BARBARA SKRZYPPEK – PATRYK SŁOWIK IN WP.PL: “Firstly, we still do not know the cause of Ms. Skrzypek's death. Secondly, it is common knowledge that she was ill, as Jarosław Kaczyński himself mentioned. It was precisely due to her health condition that she left her job at Law and Justice a few years ago. Thirdly, and however it sounds – it is not the case that one cannot interrogate a person during preliminary proceedings whose interrogation will be stressful. Assuming that a stressful interrogation can lead to death, and therefore one should not interrogate, would be unfounded.”

— THERE IS NO ARGUMENT THAT BARBARA SKRZYPPEK COULD NOT HAVE RECEIVED SUPPORT FROM A LEGAL PROFESSIONAL – PATRYK SŁOWIK FURTHER IN WP.PL: “There is no argument that Barbara Skrzypek could not have received support from a legal professional. It’s just pure malice from prosecutor Wrzosek. Did Wrzosek break the law? No, she did not. She could have refused the request of Barbara Skrzypek, who was testifying as a witness. The law explicitly allows her to do so.”

— THEREBY, THREE LAWYERS SYMPATHIZING WITH THE RULING CAMP, UNWILLING TOWARDS LAW AND JUSTICE, PARTICIPATED IN THE INTERROGATION, ALONG WITH THE INTERROGATED PERSON – CONNECTED FOR MANY YEARS WITH LAW AND JUSTICE, WITHOUT LEGAL KNOWLEDGE – SŁOWIK FURTHER IN WP.PL: “Thus, three lawyers sympathizing with the ruling camp, unwilling towards Law and Justice, participated in the interrogation, along with the interrogated person – connected for many years with Law and Justice, without legal knowledge. From this perspective, not allowing Barbara Skrzypek's attorney to participate in the interrogation was lawful, but completely indecent.”

— THIS ALL DOES NOT BUILD AN IMAGE OF AN INDEPENDENT PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE – SŁOWIK'S CONCLUSION IN WP.PL: “As a result, regardless of the causes of Barbara Skrzypek's death (I emphasize – in my opinion, accusing prosecutor Ewa Wrzosek of contributing to her death is a gross exaggeration; no one has presented any evidence for this), a situation where a serious investigation of a political nature is conducted by an eight-star prosecutor who directly states that it is not the time to strictly adhere to the letter of the law, and her interrogation is reviewed by a prosecutor's office spokesperson who, as if nothing happened, posts the entries of ruling party politicians on Twitter – all this does not build an image of an independent prosecutor's office.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/barbara-skrzypek-nie-zyje-ewa-wrzosek-straszy-pozwami-pytania-i-odpowiedzi-opinia-7135738750679648a

— IT'S A DEAD END OF ACCOUNTABILITY – ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “The right-wing narrative, based on accusations, does not absolve the government of its examination. Prosecutor Ewa Wrzosek is politically engaged. And on Wednesday, attorney Jacek Dubois mocked Barbara Skrzypek's interrogation on X. This is a dead end of accountability.”

— THE GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING THE MINISTER OF JUSTICE, PROVIDES ARGUMENTS TO UNDERCUT THEM – FLIEGER FURTHER IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “It is a dead end of accountability, since this very team is responsible for it. At their own request, the government, including the Minister of Justice, provides arguments to undercut them. Because the revenge desired by the hard core electorate is something different than repairing the state. The government must answer the question of what it truly wants.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41948481-estera-flieger-po-smierci-barbary-skrzypek-politykow-czeka-egzamin

— THEY PLAYED WITH THE FEAR OF A PERSON WHO KNOWS THAT PEOPLE DRIVEN BY POLITICAL EMOTIONS WIELD THE ENTIRE STATE APPARATUS TODAY – MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “They played with the fear of a person who knows that people driven by political emotions wield the entire state apparatus today and do not hesitate to use it to persecute the opposition. They relish the awareness that once someone falls into their hands, they can do whatever they want with them. Because even judges are “drawn” in a Belarusian manner – the outcome is always in line with expectations.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/724034-wiedziala-ze-w-tych-warunkach-jest-bez-szans

— THE MP'S DRIVING. WITNESSES TESTIFY THAT MILEAGE ALLOWANCES ARE NOT THE ONLY PROBLEM FOR ANDRZEJ SZEJNA – MARCIN WÓJCIK IN GAZETA WYBORCZA'S DUŻY FORMAT: “We drove Szejna as a favor, and now he says he had oral agreements with us. So why is there not a single zloty on our accounts for the MP's mileage claims?”

— THE MP EVEN LECTURED ME TO GET RID OF THESE PEOPLE SO THEY WOULDN'T BOTHER HIM – FORMER DIRECTOR OF THE OFFICE IN KIELCE QUOTED BY GW: “In 2019, he runs for elections with the slogan ‘Adv. Andrzej Szejna. Defender of human causes.’ Tomasz (name changed), a former assistant to the MP, worked at the Kielce constituency office from 2019 to January 2025, and recently graduated from law school: – Because of this slogan, we had problems, as people were pushing into the office. Małgorzata Marenin, former director of the office in Kielce, worked from 2019 to June 2024: – The MP even lectured me to get rid of these people so they wouldn't bother him.”

— THE DEPUTY MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS SAID HE NO LONGER DRINKS – FURTHER IN WÓJCIK'S ARTICLE IN GW: “Małgorzata: – He told me he no longer drinks. But every time after that, I had to stop at gas stations for him to 'freshen up', and before meetings with voters, he would rinse his mouth with mouthwash so that the smell wouldn't be noticeable. Paweł: – I wonder if ministers and deputy ministers undergo security clearance. After all, all their weaknesses can be exploited by hostile services.”

— WHY DID SHE GET PREGNANT?! – FURTHER IN WÓJCIK'S ARTICLE IN GW: “After the last elections, Małgorzata was supposed to become the commander of OHP in Kielce, with a salary of about PLN 15,000 gross – the district is controlled by the Left. MP Szejna calls Małgorzata to say she won't be commander because she's pregnant. The MP's closest associate – the secretary of the provincial authorities of Nowa Lewica, Jacek Skórski (he had a position in Szejna's constituency office, and after the 2023 elections he became the president of the Provincial Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management with a salary of over PLN 20,000 net) – also calls her. – Why did you get pregnant?! – Małgorzata hears from Skórski.”
https://wyborcza.pl/duzyformat/7,127290,31768588,jazdy-posla-swiadkowie-zeznaja-ze-kilometrowki-nie-sa.html

— VICE-PRESIDENT OF A STATE-OWNED COMPANY, A CIVIC COALITION POLITICIAN, HATE SPEECH AND GOVERNMENT PROPAGANDA – SZYMON JADCZAK IN WP.PL: “Szymon Gawryszczak, vice-president of the state-owned Totalizator Sportowy and a trusted associate of Deputy Minister of State Assets Robert Kropiwnicki, is a shareholder and until recently controlled a company associated with 'Sok z Buraka' (Beetroot Juice). This is a Facebook profile with a million followers, which disseminates hatred and propaganda supporting Civic Coalition on a massive scale. The company shares an office with a foundation established by Deputy Minister Kropiwnicki.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/ujawniamy-wiceprezes-panstwowej-firmy-polityk-po-hejt-i-rzadowa-propaganda-7135065523686016a

— SZYMON JADCZAK ON X: The issue of the connections of this entire hate network with Civic Coalition and the matter of financing election campaigns in this way should be clarified by an independent prosecutor's office. I even have some ideas as to the predisposed investigators…
https://x.com/SzJadczak/status/1901529928903839932

— AS MANY AS 46% OF VOTERS AGED 18-29 DECLARE SUPPORT FOR MENTZEN – OPINIA24 POLL FOR RMF FM: “As many as 46% of voters aged 18-29 declare their intention to vote for the leader of Confederation. For comparison, 18% of respondents want to vote for Trzaskowski, who is second in this ranking. Mentzen also leads in the next age group, 30-39 years old, but here the difference with the Civic Coalition candidate is minimal. Mentzen also leads in the race for male votes, though slightly, by only 2 percentage points ahead of Trzaskowski.”

— TRZASKOWSKI 32 (+1)
NAWROCKI 19.5 (-2.3)
MENTZEN 18.9 (+2)
HOŁOWNIA 5.7
BRAUN 3
BIEJAT 1.8
STANOWSKI 1.4
ZANDBERG 1.2
HARD TO SAY 14

The poll was conducted according to an original methodology by the research firm Opinia24 on a representative sample of 1000 people between March 10-13. Computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) were used. The sample reflected the socio-demographic characteristics of the Polish population aged 18+.
https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-prezydenckie-2025/news-mentzen-dogania-nawrockiego-trzaskowski-z-poparciem-koalicja,nId,7931397

— FIVE YEARS AGO, A CABINET COUNCIL MEETING WAS POSTPONED AFTER MINISTER WOSIE TESTED POSITIVE FOR COVID.

— BIRTHDAYS: Elżbieta Jakubiak, Zbigniew Girzyński, Ewa Tomczyk, Andrzej Rozenek.


Łukasz Mężyk