state of play: 03/04/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Machowski on Polls - An Alarm Bell for Democrats; Bodziony: Trump's Stance Was Signaled by Obama

Łukasz Mężyk

— “THE RESULT OF ZELENSKYY’S LACK OF GRATITUDE.” NAWROCKI ON TRUMP’S DECISION REGARDING MILITARY AID FOR UKRAINE – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/03/04/

— “IN MY OPINION, VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY SHOULD RETURN TO TALKS WITH THE UNITED STATES, AS IT IS THE ONLY PLACE WHERE HE CAN OBTAIN REAL SUPPORT IN RESOLVING THIS WARTIME SITUATION” – PRESIDENT ANDRZEJ DUDA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH GRZEGORZ ZASĘPA AND TOMASZ WALCZAK IN SE: “I approach all political events with a cool head, trying to assess them without emotion. However, it is clear that we are dealing with a certain stalemate. It seemed that an American-Ukrainian agreement would be reached, but it did not happen. I don't know to what extent this can be attributed to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's emotions, and to what extent it is tactical maneuvering. It is difficult to assess unequivocally. However, the fact remains that the situation is unresolved. In my opinion, Volodymyr Zelenskyy should return to talks with the United States, because it is the only place where he can obtain real support in resolving this wartime situation. The United States has supported Ukraine with enormous amounts, but it has not brought a breakthrough. The war continues, Russia continues to attack Ukraine, and the process itself is very slow.”

— “MY EXPERIENCES SHOW THAT IT WAS ALWAYS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A SUBSTANTIVE, CALM CONVERSATION WITH HIM. HE IS A PERSON WHO LISTENS AND CONSIDERS THE OTHER SIDE’S ARGUMENTS, BUT ONE MUST KNOW HOW TO PRESENT THEM” – FURTHER FROM SE: “I don't know, it's hard to assess. Donald Trump is the leader of the world's greatest superpower, with the largest army and nuclear potential. He has a deep inner conviction about his position and that he leads a superpower – and this is worth emphasizing. He is also a businessman, accustomed to counting everything and treating politics in a certain sense as a transaction. We will not change Donald Trump; we have to accept him as he is. My experiences show that it was always possible to have a substantive, calm conversation with him. He is a person who listens and considers the other side's arguments, but one must know how to present them. Negotiations with him are different from those with Western European politicians, who often use the language of political correctness. Donald Trump says directly what he thinks and what he expects.”

— “NO EUROPEAN LEADER, EVEN IF HE FEELS THE GREATNESS OF HIS COUNTRY, HAS ALLOWED HIMSELF SOMETHING LIKE THIS TOWARDS THE PRESIDENT OF THE USA SO FAR” – PRESIDENT DUDA AGAIN IN SE: “You said that. But looking at the place, time, and my position – I think so, to some extent. No European leader, even if they feel the greatness of their country, has allowed themselves something like this towards the US president so far. Everyone knows that compared to the United States, they are small. For the American audience, for the American taxpayer, such behavior could have been shocking. In my opinion, it did not improve Ukraine's situation. Volodymyr Zelenskyy should return to the negotiating table and talk calmly, because Donald Trump is a pragmatist and can be negotiated with.”
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/andrzej-duda-o-rozmowach-z-trumpem-mowi-co-mysli-i-czego-oczekuje-wywiad-se-aa-B2be-LYPx-hXBQ.html

— “WHAT TRUMP AND HIS ENTOURAGE ARE SAYING, IN A DIFFERENT FORM, COMPLYING WITH INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC DECORUM, BARACK OBAMA ALREADY SIGNALED IN 2011” – JAKUB BODZIONY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Of course, there is nothing new in the fact that the United States, the most powerful country in the world, does not treat smaller countries as partners. Nor is it new that Americans no longer want to maintain a security umbrella over Europe, which helped it achieve unprecedented prosperity. What Trump and his entourage are saying, in a different form, compliant with international diplomatic decorum, Barack Obama already signaled in 2011, announcing the 'pivot to Asia.'”

— “TRUMP’S RETURN TO POWER WAS A SIGNAL FOR MANY THAT IT WAS NOT HIS FIRST TERM, BUT RATHER BIDEN’S PRESIDENCY THAT WAS AN ANOMALY” – FURTHER FROM BODZIONY IN KL: “Elites who, with noble intentions, advocate for the defense of democracy, the rule of law, and the balancing of powers, are often perceived as defenders of a corrupt system. This was shown by Joe Biden's presidency, who, despite revolutionary economic programs for the middle class, failed to reverse trends unfavorable to liberal democrats. Trump's return to power was a signal for many that it was not his first term, but rather Biden's presidency that was an anomaly.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2025/03/04/w-swiecie-populistycznych-imperiow-moze-nie-byc-miejsca-ani-dla-ukrainy-ani-dla-polski/

— “IF THE WORDS OF EUROPEAN LEADERS COULD BE USED TO LOAD CANNONS, UKRAINIANS WOULD ALREADY BE ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF MOSCOW” – LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI IN INTERIA: “For now, European leaders have intensified their rhetoric. They will not deter Putin this way, they will not help Ukraine, nor will they convince their compatriots of the gravity of the situation. If their words could be used to load cannons, Ukrainians would already be on the outskirts of Moscow. This is a time when actions, not words, are weighed. When sacrifices and expenses, bold and unconventional actions, are needed.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-zelenski-kontra-trump-dawid-i-goliat,nId,7923096

— “AN ALARM BELL FOR DEMOCRATS” – ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “In December, the combined support for the candidates of the October 15 Coalition (Trzaskowski, Hołownia, and two Left candidates) exceeded the combined ratings of the national-conservative and anti-European right (Nawrocki and Mentzen) by 15 percentage points; in February, this lead narrowed to just 1 point.”

— “INSTEAD, MENTZEN SHOULD BE CONGRATULATED ON A SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGN, AND TRZASKOWSKI SHOULD BE ADVISED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN HIS” – FURTHER FROM MACHOWSKI IN GW: “Of course, Trzaskowski's lead over Mentzen is still substantial, but considering that Mentzen has halved the gap to Trzaskowski in two months, Mentzen should rather be congratulated on a successful campaign, and Trzaskowski should be advised to make significant changes in his.”

— “A DIFFERENT NARRATIVE IS NEEDED HERE, SIMILAR TO THE ONE TUSK HAD IN 2023” – MACHOWSKI’S CONCLUSION IN GW: “And it is evident that this is not working for him at all: he is losing with women, he is losing in big cities, he is losing among the youngest voters and among people with higher education. A different narrative is needed here, similar to the one Tusk had in 2023: more about women's and LGBT rights, about the liberalization of the abortion law, about climate protection, about the European Union, about accountability, about the rule of law – and more so from himself (and not just when someone calls him to the board). About the need to finalize the changes we announced two years ago.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31737116,alarm-dla-trzaskowskiego-nie-ta-kampania-nie-ten-przeciwnik.html

— “WE, MYSELF AND MY MOVEMENT, ARE NOT A LARGE POLITICAL DISCOUNT STORE CAPABLE OF WAGING A SIX-MONTH NUCLEAR PRICE WAR WITH THE COMPETITION” – SZYMON HOŁOWNIA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH BARTOSZ WIELIŃSKI AND ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: “And they know what everyone knows – that the last month consumes most of the resources. And we, myself and my movement, are not a large political discount store capable of waging a six-month nuclear price war with the competition. In the spirit of responsibility for the state, I also decided to combine my campaign with the normal performance of the duties of the Marshal of the Sejm, to give proof that I take my commitments seriously.”

— “I UNDERSTAND THAT SOMEONE MAY BE EXCITED BY HOW MENTZEN FLIES THROUGH SIX PLACES A DAY. BUT IN EACH, HE SPENDS MAYBE HALF AN HOUR” – FURTHER FROM HOŁOWNIA IN GW: “For example, such a Mentzen almost never appears in the Sejm. So my campaign started two weeks ago, which means – such is the inertia of political processes – that the results will be in two or three weeks. I understand that someone may be excited by how Mentzen flies through six places a day. But in each, he spends maybe half an hour. I want to conduct my campaign for people, not over them.”

— “MENTZEN’S VISION OF POLAND IS SOCIAL DARWINISM, SOCIAL CANNIBALISM: LET THE STRONGER EAT THE WEAKER” – HOŁOWNIA AGAIN IN GW: “I don't think Mentzen will maintain this position until the elections. Sentiment is already turning. People see that his campaign is applauded by Kremlin media. That his vision of Poland is social Darwinism, social cannibalism: let the stronger eat the weaker. A moment will come when women will remember how loudly Confederation applauded Julia Przyłębska’s ‘verdict’ of the Constitutional Tribunal in 2020.”

— “IF PIS RETURNS TO POWER – KO WILL BECOME AN OPPOSITION PAYING FOR POLITICAL CANNIBALISM IN PRISON” – FURTHER FROM HOŁOWNIA IN GW: “Let me be frank: if we are to be appendages, and Platforma wants to ‘eat’ us, it will be left with severe indigestion in the next Sejm. Because it is not and will not be able to form a government, just like after the 2023 elections. So it will be in opposition. Partially – if PiS returns to power – paying for political cannibalism in prison.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31734092,holownia-nie-chce-byc-ani-dlugopisem-ani-sabotazysta.html

— “WE MUST FIND MEANS TO BUILD A BETTER STATE FROM SOMEWHERE” – JAKUB SZYMCZAK IN OKO.PRESS ON NAWROCKI’S TAX PROPOSALS: “The Polish public debate is full of fiscal horror. Any tax increase – even one that affects only a narrow group of taxpayers – is presented as a serious threat to everyone. However, we must find means to build a better state from somewhere.”

— “PIS HAS LEARNED THE WRONG LESSON FROM THAT DEFEAT — INSTEAD OF RECTIFYING THE MISTAKES MADE THEN, IT PREFERS A PRIMITIVE SOLUTION – PEOPLE DON'T LIKE TAX INCREASES, SO WE PROMISE THEM THAT THERE WILL NEVER BE ANY. THIS IS ALL TO THE DETRIMENT OF THE STATE AND SOCIETY” – FURTHER FROM SZYMCZAK IN OKO: “This could mean, for example, the necessity of raising taxes on the wealthiest – which are relatively low today. Karol Nawrocki, however, does not want such a policy. This contrasts with PiS’s ideas from 2021, when in the first draft of the Polish Deal reforms, they were budget-balanced, and those earning better were to have their tax obligations increased. Mateusz Morawiecki's government implemented the reform poorly — it did it quickly and chaotically, it did not ensure proper explanation to citizens, and finally it succumbed to pressure from business groups and weakened potential budget revenues. PiS has learned the wrong lesson from that defeat — instead of rectifying the mistakes of that time, it prefers a primitive solution – people don't like tax increases, so we promise them that there will never be any. This is all to the detriment of the state and society.”
https://oko.press/karol-nawrocki-program-podatkowy-obnizki-podatkow

— BIRTHDAYS: Adam Daniel Rotfeld (turning 87), Dorota Gawryluk, Marta Kuligowska, Barbara Bubula, Joanna Sokolińska, Michał Kania, Piotr Markiewicz.


Łukasz Mężyk