state of play: 02/25/2025

GAME STATE: CBOS: Third Way's Worst Result Since September, Kublik: Hołownia's Electorate is a Small Group, Wielowieyska: Not as Rosy in Konfederacja as it Seems

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— RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI AT THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL LISTS HOW MANY RUSSIAN CITIZENS HAVE LOST FROM THE WAR: https://x.com/radeksikorski/status/1894193455565357408

— CARL BILDT PUBLISHED A VIDEO OF SIKORSKI'S STRONG SPEECH AT THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY: https://x.com/carlbildt/status/1894104397820408165

— TRUMP ENCHANTED BY MACRON:
https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1894096884978929884

— TRUMP ON DINNER WITH MACRON AT THE EIFFEL TOWER: https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1894096336288378898

— MACRON'S STRONG INTERVENTION DURING TALK WITH TRUMP ABOUT EUROPE'S CONTRIBUTION TO SUPPORTING FIGHTING UKRAINE:
https://x.com/Marekwalkuski/status/1894111256002375843

— AFTER TRUMP-MACRON MEETING, THE PENDULUM SWINGS TOWARDS UKRAINE – JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: “Trump was so enthusiastic about this idea that he stated Putin agrees to the presence of European soldiers. This likely has little to do with reality, as it would mean the Kremlin has agreed to the existence of a sovereign Ukrainian state, albeit within reduced borders. However, it is a clear signal that Washington is ready to support Macron's idea.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41845541-jedrzej-bielecki-po-spotkaniu-trump-macron-wahadlo-wychyla-sie-w-strone-ukrainy

— THREE YEARS OF WAR. UNCOMPROMISING TRUMP, SUPPORTIVE DUDA, CAUTIOUS TUSK, CALCULATING TRZASKOWSKI. AND US – PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “Meanwhile, the message of Konfederacja candidate Sławomir Mentzen appeals to people with an established anti-Ukrainian attitude, the message of Trzaskowski or Tusk appeals to people with fewer prejudices, but it increases those prejudices. Because even if our cool politicians say that Ukrainians come to us for social benefits, there's no need to overdo the help and kindness. And so a vicious cycle of negative social attitudes – corresponding political declarations – and growing dislike, etc., continues. It's worth getting off this carousel on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of our neighbor.”
https://oko.press/3-lata-wojny-bezwgledny-trump-wspierajacy-duda-ostrozny-tusk

— SIEMONIAK: PRESIDENT TRUMP AND WASHINGTON ARE NOT CHANGING THEIR APPROACH TO POLAND – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/02/25/

— 24% EXPRESSED DISSATISFACTION WITH THE WORK OF THE GOVERNMENT LED BY DONALD TUSK, AND "DECIDEDLY" – 33% – OPINIA24 FOR RMF: 7 percent of respondents rate the government "decidedly positively," while 24% – "rather" positively.

— KONFEDERACJA'S ELECTORATE IS ALMOST AS CRITICAL OF TUSK'S GOVERNMENT AS THE MOST CRITICAL PIS VOTERS: https://www.rmf24.pl/polityka/news-ponad-polowa-polakow-niezadowolona-z-rzadu-tuska-sondaz-opin,nId,7919190

— THIRD WAY NOW HAS SUPPORT ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE RAZEM PARTY – 4% IN A CBOS SURVEY IN THE SECOND HALF OF FEBRUARY: If the vote were held now, the Third Way coalition would likely not be able to get its representatives into the Sejm, with only 4% of declared voters supporting it in the second half of February (a 2 percentage point decrease compared to two weeks prior). This is the coalition's worst result since September last year. Support for the Razem party, which would also not make it into parliament, has remained at the same level (2%) for four months.

— IN THE CBOS FLASH SURVEY, KONFEDERACJA AND KO INCREASED STRONGLY BY +4 PP, PIS IS 5PP BEHIND TUSK.
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/flashe_tekst.php?nr=8/2025

— A COALITION OF PIS AND KONFEDERACJA WOULD HAVE 257 SEJM DEPUTIES: https://x.com/DawidStats/status/1894023740247150830

— HOŁOWNIA IS SYSTEMATICALLY LOSING – AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW ON THE OPINIA24 SURVEY: “Rafał Trzaskowski would enter the first round – 34.9% and Karol Nawrocki – 24.1%. The Mayor of Warsaw is essentially unchanged, Nawrocki gained 2 percentage points since January. Sławomir Mentzen received 13.6%, also no significant changes here. But the trend is favorable – he is systematically gaining support, the only one running for the Presidential Palace. Szymon Hołownia is systematically losing a little – now he has 4.2% support, and at the end of January he had 6.8%.”

— HOŁOWNIA'S VOTERS WOULD VOTE FOR TRZASKOWSKI, BUT BEWARE, IT'S A SMALL GROUP – KUBLIK FURTHER ON OPINIA 24: “Mentzen's voters in the second round would vote as follows: 75% for Nawrocki, 10% for Trzaskowski, 15% still undecided. Hołownia's voters (but beware, it's a small group) – 85% for Trzaskowski, 12% for Nawrocki, 3% still undecided.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31718635,sondaz-opinia24-widac-niewielkie-zmiany-w-poparciu-kandydatow.html

— RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI REMAINS THE FAVORITE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE, HOWEVER, HIS SUPPORT IS FALLING IN BOTH THE FIRST AND SECOND ROUNDS – ACCORDING TO A NEW SURVEY FOR WIRTUALNA POLSKA. KAROL NAWROCKI MAINTAINS SECOND PLACE. SŁAWOMIR MENTZEN IS NOTING THE LARGEST INCREASE.

— Trzaskowski 34.1 percent. This is a drop of 2.5 percentage points compared to the previous survey.

Nawrocki 25.7 percent – an increase of 0.3 percentage points.

Mentzen 16.2 percent – an increase of as much as 6.5 percentage points.
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/trzaskowski-pierwszy-ale-traci-mentzen-rosnie-w-sile-mamy-nowy-sondaz-7128771222932256a

— IT'S NOT AS ROSY IN KONFEDERACJA AS IT SEEMS – DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Relations within Konfederacja are very tense. There is grinding and sparks flying between the presidential candidate and his mentor. (...) 15 years later, Bosak put a veto. He offered a significant financial contribution from the nationalists to Mentzen's presidential campaign on the condition that someone other than Wipler would become the head of the club. Mentzen agreed. (...) This was Mentzen's second betrayal. And Wipler can no longer forgive him for this.”

— IN THE FRONT ROW IN BEŁCHATÓW SAT BOSAK, WHO TRIED TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION OF BEING ENTHUSIASTIC, BUT DIDN'T DO IT VERY WELL – FURTHER AT WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “…because Mentzen's ratings indicate his – Bosak's – weakness. Wipler was also in the hall, but when the convention host invited all the organizers to the stage to stand next to the presidential candidate, he was not visible in this group. But Wipler is too cunning and pragmatic a player to get offended by reality. On behalf of Mentzen, he has already begun negotiations regarding the second round.”

— TRZASKOWSKI IS ALREADY GATHERING ALMOST ALL HIS SUPPORTERS IN THE FIRST ROUND, NAWROCKI IS NOT, HE MAY GAIN MANY NEW VOTES IN THE SECOND ROUND COMPARED TO THE FIRST – WIELOWIEYSKA QUOTES A PIS POLITICIAN: “Trzaskowski is already gathering almost all his supporters in the first round, Nawrocki is not, he may gain many new votes in the second round compared to the first. And this is thanks to the arrangement where Mentzen finishes third, not the weakening Szymon Hołownia. That's why we are optimistic and believe in victory – I hear in PiS.”

— "FOR THE MINISTER OF FINANCE..." KONFEDERACI ARE TALKING WITH TRZASKOWSKI'S STAFF – FURTHER WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “– And meanwhile, Mentzen's people are also talking with people from Trzaskowski's staff. A lot can happen, Mentzen is willing to do a lot for the position of Minister of Finance – one of my interlocutors assures me. However, it is highly unlikely that Mentzen will support Trzaskowski. It is still most probable that he will not endorse anyone.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31715832,mlody-chlopak-bez-zaplecza-i-wyksztalcenia-mocno-to-przezyl.html

— BIRTHDAYS: Danuta Wałęsa, Paweł Piskorski, Andrzej Szarawarski, Zenon Kosiniak-Kamysz, Barbara Sobska.


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