state of play: 12/19/2024

POLITICAL GAME STATE: Prof. Flis: The Situation is Starting to Resemble the End of Kopacz's Term, Although Only a Year Has Passed; Middle Class in Gruszczyński's Account: We Make Butter in a Thermomix

Łukasz Mężyk

-- "WE MAKE BUTTER IN A THERMOMIX". WARSAW'S MIDDLE CLASS ON INFLATION AND SAVING - ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: "Robert is 35 years old, he and his wife earn 13,000 PLN net per month. They rent an apartment (4,500 PLN), don't have a car, use public transport (540 PLN per quarter for two people), and go out for dinner once a week (300 PLN with tips). – We live paycheck to paycheck, we don't save, we spend everything. I know it's strange, but we don't have children, but we do have a Thermomix in the kitchen and we go on foreign holidays twice a year. We can't even save 500 PLN a month – he admits". -- ONE COULD SAY THAT THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION IS RACING AGAINST TIME, BECAUSE IT IS CERTAIN THAT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS WILL FALL UPON US - GRUSZCZYŃSKI QUOTES PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK: "– Voters of the broadly understood ruling coalition, including economically better-off or stably employed groups, will accept deteriorating economic conditions for longer – believes Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk, a political scientist from the University of Warsaw. – These voters will continue to be strongly influenced by political rather than economic issues, although this could change radically after the presidential elections, when it turns out that the state treasury is truly empty. So we are talking about an electorate that will be able to endure stagnation and lack of economic progress for a long time. Until the crisis begins to eat into their savings". https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,31538306,wiemy-kiedy-maslo-bedzie-tansze-sprawdzamy-tez-czy-drozyzna.html -- KPO FUNDS FOR A COMPANY CONTROLLED BY DOMINIKA KULCZYK. A 750 MILLION PLN CONTRACT - BUSINESS INSIDER QUOTES PAP: https://businessinsider.com.pl/gielda/wiadomosci/pieniadze-z-kpo-dla-spolki-kontrolowanej-przez-dominike-kulczyk-umowa-na-750-mln-zl/z1p9ykn -- GUS CONDUCTS SURVEYS EVERY MONTH, AND THE LATEST RESULTS INDICATE THAT POLES ARE INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE DETERIORATION OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION. THIS GIVES LITTLE CHANCE FOR CONSUMPTION GROWTH, AND WITH IT, TAX REVENUE FOR THE BUDGET, WHICH THE GOVERNMENT IS EAGERLY AWAITING - JACEK FRĄCZYK IN BUSINESS INSIDER: "A total of 55% believe it has worsened, including just under 16% who say it has worsened significantly, but in November, 56.5% spoke of a worsening situation (including 16.6% about a significant worsening), and in December last year – 57.9% (including 19.2% about a significant worsening). The problem is that our predictions for the next 12 months have become more negative. Here, 48.3% of us have pessimistic feelings, compared to 45.10% in November and 35.9% a year ago. Significantly worse situation is predicted by 12.4% of us, while a month ago extreme pessimists were 14.35%, and in December last year – 8.7%. Such data does not give much hope for bolder shopping". https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/polacy-o-gospodarce-ten-sondaz-nie-wypadl-dobrze/wedfmy8 -- THE SITUATION IS STARTING TO RESEMBLE THE END OF THE KOPACZ CABINET IN 2015, ALTHOUGH ONLY A YEAR HAS PASSED; CURRENT ASSESSMENTS CAN BE CONSIDERED A CLEAR WARNING TO THE PRIME MINISTER, WHO SHOULD START GETTING ANGRY AT HIMSELF - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: "Poles assess their own material well-being adequately, whereas the situation with the assessment of Donald Tusk's government looks worse. It's not as bad as at the end of PiS rule, but the current situation is starting to resemble the end of Ewa Kopacz's cabinet in 2015, although only a year has passed since taking office. Current assessments can be treated as a clear warning to the prime minister, who should start getting angry at himself, not at his coalition partners". -- IN THE EYES OF PUBLIC OPINION, THE GOVERNMENT IS SIMPLY UNCOORDINATED, MEANING INEFFECTIVE AND INEFFICIENT - PROF. FLIS FURTHER IN GW: "In the prime minister's ideal narrative, Donald Tusk's cabinet consists of a benevolent tsar who single-handedly delivers all successes, and when something goes wrong, he calls the bad boyars to order. However, in the eyes of public opinion, the government is simply uncoordinated, meaning ineffective and inefficient". -- THE PRIME MINISTER FORGETS THAT IN EIGHT YEARS AT THE LATEST, WHEN KO HANDS OVER POWER TO PIS, HE WILL HEAR EXACTLY THE SAME WORDS ABOUT HIMSELF - FLIS FURTHER IN GW: "But is it necessary to call PiS a criminal organization in the process? Such terms invite comparisons with authoritarianism. Instead, Tusk could simply say to the second tier of PiS: 'Guys, you've lost it – wouldn't you like to sober up?' The prime minister forgets that in eight years at the latest, when KO hands over power to PiS, he will hear exactly the same words about himself from Jarosław Kaczyński or his successors". https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,31553554,flis-karol-nawrocki-jest-kandydatem-kontynuacji-rzadow-pis.html -- TRUST IN THE PRESIDENT INCREASED IN CBOS, DECREASED FOR THE PRIME MINISTER; HOŁOWNIA, KOSINIAK, AND KACZYŃSKI GAINED: https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41600931-sondaz-rosnie-zaufanie-polakow-do-prezydenta-andrzeja-dudy -- BY WALKING DOWN THE AVENUE NAMED AFTER BANDERA, THE PRIME MINISTER COULD HAVE PASSED THE INTERSECTION WITH THE AVENUE OF THE HEROES OF UPA. YES, THAT IS THE ORGANIZATION THAT MASSACRED 120,000 POLES IN VOLHYNIA AND EASTERN GALICIA - LESZEK MILLER ON PRIME MINISTER TUSK'S VISIT TO LVIV: "The weather wasn't favorable, and the prime minister also didn't have time for a walk around Lviv. What a shame. He could have, for example, walked down one of the main streets of the city – the representative avenue named after Stepan Bandera. There, he could have seen a 30-meter high colonnade and a monument to Bandera, depicting him in a slightly flowing coat. Continuing on, he could have noticed Yevhen Konovalets Street, the founder and first commander of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), which played a key role in shaping Ukrainian nationalism in the 20th century. In interwar Poland, this structure conducted bloody terrorist activities. The Lviv City Council decided that one street was not enough, so a monument worthy of commemorating the armed deeds and intellectual legacy of this fighter will stand on the grounds of Lviv Polytechnic. Continuing down the avenue named after Bandera, the prime minister could have passed the intersection with the Avenue of the Heroes of UPA. Yes, that is the organization that massacred 120,000 Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia, mainly the elderly, women, and children". https://x.com/LeszekMiller/status/1869294583890554957 -- SUTRYK HAS NO INTENTION OF LEAVING; THIS IS A PROBLEM FOR THE PLATFORM IN WROCŁAW - NATALIA SAWKA IN OKO.PRESS: "Wrocław Mayor Jacek Sutryk, despite facing corruption charges, has no intention of resigning from his post and maintains his innocence. Meanwhile, in the Wrocław City Council, where KO has a majority, the atmosphere is becoming more tense. (...) From Wrocław's coalition partners, one can hear that PiS will use the Sutryk case to attack Rafał Trzaskowski, who will have to distance himself from his Wrocław colleague in the presidential elections. This will undoubtedly be a problem for the Civic Platform candidate – Sutryk is the president of the Union of Polish Cities, and moreover, he is one of the leaders of the 'Yes! For Poland' movement, which is associated with Trzaskowski". https://oko.press/jacek-sutryk-wroclaw-ko-collegium-humanum -- THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE PKW DID NOT PROTEST EARLIER WHEN THIS VERY CHAMBER APPROVED THE RESULTS OF THE OCTOBER 2023 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS - MARCEL WANDAS IN OKO.PRESS: "The PKW is postponing its decision for now. Its members could ignore the decision of the Extraordinary Control Chamber, considered an illegal body by the Court of Justice of the EU and the European Court of Human Rights. The problem is that the Commission did not protest earlier when this very Chamber approved the results of the October 2023 parliamentary elections". https://oko.press/pkw-wybory-subwencja-pis -- "THREE RANDOMLY SELECTED JUDGES FROM DIFFERENT CHAMBERS". HOŁOWNIA ANNOUNCES THE PRESENTATION OF A LAW ON ELECTIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/12/19/ -- DEVELOPERS FEEL STIGMATIZED AND ATTACK MINISTER PEŁCZYŃSKA NAŁĘCZ - STATEMENT IN INTERIA: "Generally, we feel a bit disappointed that, detached from facts, as participants in this market, we are somewhat stigmatized. Our industry provides 98% of apartments in multi-family buildings. We are a serious entity thanks to whom Poles have a place to live. We expect normality, not privileges. A factual conversation, based on facts, not stereotypes. We don't want to be attacked in a way that is characteristic of politics. We have the impression that this may be dictated by some political tactic. We invite you to a conversation. We want to help with our expertise and experience to develop this market, to do something good for society – complained Wandzel". https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-szef-zwiazku-deweloperow-odpowiada-minister-jestesmy-stygmat,nId,7878046 -- CZARZASTY IS NOT ONLY PLAYING FOR THE MINISTER'S HEAD WITH TUSK - ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ IN INTERIA: "This is about whether the first minister in this government to be forced to resign due to an affair will be a minister from Lewica. It is also a matter of Lewica's position and itself within the coalition, and Włodek's relations with Hołownia and Tusk – a person from the authorities of Nowa Lewica. (...) – To put it bluntly: it's a matter of Włodek's position, strength, and effectiveness. Whether the chairman is able to defend his minister – states a person from the inner leadership of Lewica". https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-to-jego-chwila-prawdy-czarzasty-z-tuskiem-gra-nie-tylko-o-gl,nId,7877749 -- BIRTHDAYS: Rafał Olejniczak, Michał Giersz.

Łukasz Mężyk