state of play: 12/18/2024

POLITICAL GAME: Janicki: The warm-up year is over, the final year is coming. We have to win it or PiS will return; Wyrwał in Onet: 10 examples of how Ukraine disregards Poland; The atmosphere around the Minister of Culture is slowly like around Wieczorek

Łukasz Mężyk

-- COMPLAINT TO THE VOIVODESHIP ADMINISTRATIVE COURT, DIALOGUE WITH THE VENICE COMMISSION, AND SUBMISSION TO THE MARSHAL OF THE SEJM. PiS ANNOUNCES ACTIONS FOLLOWING PKW DECISION, BOSAK: PKW AND MINISTER OF FINANCE ARE BREAKING THE LAW - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/12/18/ -- THE "VOTE FOR PiS" DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN WAS MEANT TO WEAKEN PiS, NOT STRENGTHEN IT - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “The content of the SMS messages indicates the goals of this disinformation. The false PAP dispatch was intended to weaken the October 15th Coalition. Last year's attack, on the other hand, was aimed at voters who were wavering between PiS and Konfederacja. The Russians wanted Konfederacja to strengthen at the expense of PiS and for a government of these two groupings to be formed, in which Jarosław Kaczyński's party would not be too strong a partner. Such a government, from Vladimir Putin's perspective, is the most beneficial, as it would be dominated by a strongly anti-EU, anti-European trend, and furthermore, Konfederacja would hinder PiS in its actions for Ukraine.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31553505,dominika-wielowieyska-akcja-dezinformacyjna-glosujnapis-miala.html -- TEN EXAMPLES SHOWING HOW UKRAINE DISREGARDS POLAND - MARCIN WYRWAŁ IN ONET: “Ukraine is an important country for our security, and in the longer term, a significant economic partner. However, for both countries to cooperate harmoniously, the relations between Warsaw and Kyiv must be partnership-based and, above all, founded on mutual respect. Unfortunately, this is not the case at present.” -- EVEN WHERE WE MIGHT HAVE CHANCES, IT IS ALREADY EVIDENT THAT WE ARE NEITHER A PRIMARY NOR EVEN A PRIORITY PARTNER FOR KYIV - WYRWAŁ CONTINUES IN ONET: “Our politicians invariably speak with optimism about Poland's willingness to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine. The fact is, however – apart from Paweł Kowal, who is involved in this matter – unofficially in conversations with Onet, they clearly indicate that they no longer have any illusions that the most attractive contracts will not go to Poland. (...) This does not change the fact that even where we might have chances, it is already evident that we are neither a primary nor even a priority partner for Kyiv.” -- ATTACK ON POLAND AT THE UN FORUM - WYRWAŁ CONTINUES IN ONET: “The culmination of the grain scandal was the speech by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the UN General Assembly session, in which he accused Poland of 'helping to prepare the stage for a Moscow actor.' Even if we assume that Ukraine, not Poland, was right in the grain affair (although in our assessment this was not the case), the attack specifically on Poland and solely on Poland – given that our country has supplied Ukraine with more tanks than the United States, Great Britain, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia combined – was at the very least inappropriate.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/dziesiec-przykladow-ktore-pokazuja-jak-ukraina-lekcewazy-polske-analiza/ydtjk6x,79cfc278 -- THE WARM-UP YEAR IS OVER, THE FINAL YEAR IS COMING. WE HAVE TO WIN IT OR PIS WILL RETURN - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The year 2024 was important in that it showed the state of the country after the PiS governments, making clear what two political and cultural worlds are available and that they cannot be reconciled. Kaczyński was no longer in power, but it is visible how deeply those governments have become embedded in the structures of the state and in people's minds. Now, either the October 15th coalition will complete the process of restoring liberal democracy, or sooner or later PiS will return. The warm-up year is over, the final year is coming.” -- CERTAINLY, THE PRESIDENTIAL INAUGURATION OF TRUMP IN JANUARY NEXT YEAR WILL BE ANOTHER BOOST SINCE THE US ELECTIONS - MARIUSZ JANICKI CONTINUES: “An external impulse influencing the Polish campaign was Donald Trump's victory in the American elections in November, which was treated by our right wing as a proxy defeat of Civic Platform. However, this effect did not last long; certainly, the presidential inauguration of Trump in January next year will be another boost.” -- PiS'S AGGRESSIVE PERSUASION THAT IT HAS ONLY TEMPORARILY LOST POWER MUST HAVE INFLUENCED OFFICIALS, THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE, SERVICES, OFFICERS, AND BUSINESS - CONTINUES THE FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “This is a significant theme of the entire year 2024, when PiS politicians constantly gave the impression that they had lost power temporarily, due to manipulation and misunderstanding; they would be back soon and would take revenge. Therefore, people should be cautious and not make decisions they would later regret. This aggressive persuasion must have had an impact on officials, the prosecutor's office, services, officers, and business.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2282503,1,minal-rok-rozgrzewki-nadchodzi-rok-finalu-trzeba-go-wygrac-albo-wroci-pis.read -- POLES MUST KNOW THAT WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN THE LAST OVER A DOZEN MONTHS IS A SHORT, UNPLEASANT, DANGEROUS, BUT STILL CONCLUDING INTERVAL - JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI FOR WPOLSCE24: “This hope is growing in people today, but it is still not enough. Poles must know that what has been happening in the last dozen or so months is a short, unpleasant, dangerous, but still concluding interval in everything that has been moving forward in our country with various phases and levels of success since 1989, but still continuously faster – or slower – we have been progressing.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/716129-tylko-u-nas-prezes-kaczynski-polska-zaczyna-sie-cofac -- 49% POORLY ASSESSED THE GOVERNMENT'S ACTIONS RELATED TO MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF THE FLOOD AND HELPING THE VICTIMS. 38% ASSESSED THEM POSITIVELY, AND 13% HAD NO OPINION ON THE MATTER - OPINIA24 FOR RMF: “55% of men poorly assessed the authorities' stance on the flood. Women assessed it more leniently, as only 44% of them gave the authorities a negative rating. 4% of men and the same percentage of women stated that the authorities handled the disaster in southwestern Poland and its consequences 'very well.'” -- RESIDENTS OF THE LUBUSKIE AND SILESIAN VOIVODESHIPS ASSESS THE AUTHORITIES' ACTIONS THE WORST - OPINIA24 FOR RMF CONTINUES: “Only 36% of people from these areas believe that the ruling coalition's politicians met the challenge. Flood victims from the Lower Silesian Voivodeship view Donald Tusk's government slightly more leniently. Here, 41% of respondents assess the current authorities' interventions positively.” https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-powodz-w-polsce-2024/fakty/news-jak-polacy-oceniaja-dzialania-rzadu-ws-powodzi-sondaz-opinia,nId,7877286 -- RZ ON THE CHAOS AT ZUS: “Is ZUS playing for time regarding contribution holidays? Businesses are concerned. On Wednesday, the first entrepreneurs are to be informed about the processing of their applications for exemption from contributions for December. However, communications sent by ZUS in recent days have caused panic in many companies.” https://pro.rp.pl/zus/art41594061-czy-zus-gra-na-zwloke-w-sprawie-wakacji-skladkowych-biznes-sie-obawia -- NEW "MY ELECTRIC" WORSE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT WILL SLOW DOWN THE E-CAR MARKET - RZ: “The new support program for the purchase of electric cars has a larger budget but excludes subsidies for companies, which purchase the vast majority of this type of vehicle in Poland.” https://pro.rp.pl/raporty-ekonomiczne/art41579351-nowy-moj-elektryk-gorszy-od-poprzedniego-wyhamuje-rynek-e-aut -- NEARLY 39% OF THIRD WAY VOTERS ADMIT THEY CAN STILL CHANGE THEIR MINDS AND VOTE FOR A DIFFERENT CANDIDATE IN THE FIRST ROUND - ACCORDING TO A UCE RESEARCH POLL FOR ONET, DESCRIBED BY PIOTR OLEJARCZYK: “74% of Poles declare that they already know who they will vote for in next year's presidential elections – according to a UCE RESEARCH poll for Onet. At the same time, one in four respondents admits that they may still change their mind about their candidate and mark someone else's name at the ballot box. This option is most often indicated by voters of the Third Way and the Non-Partisan Local Government Officials. Among party voters, nearly 39% of Third Way voters admit that they can still change their minds and vote for another candidate in the first round. Among voters of other parties, this indicator looks as follows: PiS – 28.2%, PO – 20.1%, Left – 24.6%, Confederation – 25%, Non-Partisan and Local Government Officials – 60%.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onettrojmiasto/zaciety-wyscig-o-fotel-prezydenta-ci-wyborcy-moga-jeszcze-zmienic-zdanie-sondaz/3m50r6p,79cfc278 -- THE DISPUTE OVER THE STATUS OF THE SUPREME COURT'S CHAMBER FOR EXTRAORDINARY CONTROL SHOWS THAT WE ARE ON THE BRINK OF CONSTITUTIONAL CHAOS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Polish democracy needs compromise to prevent scenarios that have weakened the electoral systems of Moldova or Georgia and undermined public trust in state institutions.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41592441-michal-szuldrzynski-polska-na-skraju-chaosu-nie-dopuscmy-do-kryzysu-konstytucyjnego -- KAROL NAWROCKI AS PRESIDENT OF THE STATE WOULD BE A GREAT EXPLANATION FOR THE GOVERNMENT'S FAILURES IN 2027 - MAREK MIGALSKI IN RZ: “Let's first look at Civic Platform. Would anything terrible happen if Rafał Trzaskowski were not to become president? After all, it would mean the continuation of the current state of affairs, and this is not – at least from the perspective of the supporters of the current authorities – catastrophic. Donald Tusk himself might even benefit from this – he would remain the central figure of the anti-PiS movement, without the threat of a new center of power forming around Trzaskowski, and with an excuse for not fulfilling all electoral promises. After all, Karol Nawrocki as president of the state would be a wonderful explanation for the government's failures in 2027. I am not saying that Tusk wants the defeat of the PO candidate (because that is probably too strong a thesis), but he certainly wouldn't break down if that were indeed to happen. Especially since he wouldn't be personally responsible for it – after all, Trzaskowski was nominated by PO activists, not the PO leader.” -- THE RULING PARTIES WILL HAVE TROUBLE MOTIVATING THEIR SUPPORTERS, WHO ARE LARGELY DISAPPOINTED WITH THE NEW AUTHORITIES - MIGALSKI CONTINUES IN RZ: “It is difficult to expect that in six months they will stand until three in the morning in front of polling stations to support their candidates. It is rather among Nawrocki's voters that such civic engagement can be expected. And it is somewhat fair – that the most mobilized will be the supporters of the party for which the May battle is most important.” https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art41592151-marek-migalski-nie-waga-wyborow-prezydenckich -- THE MINISTRY OF CULTURE'S PRACTICE IMPRESSES AS A RESTRICTION OF PUBLIC ACCESS - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “The Minister asked the participants to 'treat the meeting as closed' and not to inform journalists about its proceedings, which – regardless of the fact that it is impossible in such a large group – gives the impression of restricting public access. We are to wait for a communiqué that will be developed jointly by filmmakers and the ministry. This strengthens the ministry's message that there are, God knows what, secrets, crimes, and dark matters here, which no one can know yet. When will the communiqué be ready? It is unknown.” https://oko.press/filmowcy-z-wroblewska-rozwod-pisf -- THE AUTHORITIES WANT TO SILENCE KAROLINA ROZWÓD. REPLY: I WILL NOT BE INTIMIDATED, I WILL NOT CONFIRM LIES - AT PIOTR PACWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “Karolina Rozwód, the dismissed director of PISF, has received a demand from PISF to remain silent and apologize. She tells OKO.press that she 'will not allow the lie about four months of my work to prevail.'” https://oko.press/wladza-chce-zamknac-usta-karolinie-rozwod-odpowiedz-nie-dam-sie-zastraszyc-nie-potwierdze-klamstw -- IT BECAME CLEAR TO ME THAT IT'S ABOUT ONE THING: MANUAL CONTROL OVER THE DISTRIBUTION OF MONEY - KAROLINA ROZWÓD IN AN INTERVIEW WITH PIOTR GUSZKOWSKI IN GW: “I understand that an application outside of the session [a specific deadline for grant applications] can be accepted if a projector breaks down and a new one needs to be bought so that the cinema can operate. However, in the case of film production, there is no justification for this. Therefore, it became clear to me that it's about one thing: manual control over the distribution of money.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,101707,31548564,karolina-rozwod-o-zwolnieniu-z-pisf-u-zostalam-bardzo-skrzywdzona.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Janusz Onyszkiewicz, Jacek Kozłowski, Magdalena Szefernaker.

Łukasz Mężyk