state of play: 12/07/2024
STATE OF PLAY: Rokita – "Chapeau bas, Mr. President, you've set an example of how to use the right to self-defense"; Haszczyński – "Judges suggest citizens haven't matured"; The Mystery of the Moscow Passengers
-- NO ONE KNOWS WHERE THE THREE PASSENGERS OF THE MOSCOW PLANE THAT MADE AN EMERGENCY LANDING IN WARSAW HAVE GONE? "Three individuals left Warsaw Chopin Airport after a plane flying from Russia to Turkey had to make an emergency landing. These passengers did not continue their journey to Istanbul but instead traveled to Great Britain and Albania, leaving their luggage behind. Jacek Dobrzyński, spokesperson for the Ministry of Interior and Administration, emphasized that this situation highlighted 'the need to adjust procedures regarding the services' conduct towards passengers arriving from areas under restrictions.'
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-lecieli-z-moskwy-musieli-ladowac-w-warszawie-tajemnica-wokol,nId,7871230
-- SATURDAY'S POLITICAL AGENDA: KO CONVENTION, HOŁOWNIA IN GDAŃSK, NAWROCKI ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL, DUDA IN PARIS, TOMCZYK-SZEFERNAKER TENSION: "CAMPAIGN ON THE FLOOD", "ARE THE PROGNOSES FOR THE PACE OF AID AGAIN NOT OVERLY ALARMING?" - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/12/07/
-- THE ROMANIAN CONSTITUTIONAL COURT'S ANNULMENT OF THE FIRST ROUND OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS RAISES MANY DOUBTS. JUDGES SUGGEST CITIZENS HAVEN'T MATURED FOR DEMOCRACY AS THEY EASILY FALL PREY TO TIKTOK PROPAGANDA - JERZY HASZCZYŃSKI IN RZ: "The question arises: are voters so immature that they vote for people they watch on TikTok? Because if it weren't for TikTok, would they have chosen the current or previous government?"
-- RATHER, THEY WILL CONSIDER THEMSELVES DECEIVED AND THAT THE ELITES DO NOT WANT TO UNDERSTAND THE REASONS FOR THEIR DISCONTENT AT ALL - HASZCZYŃSKI FURTHER IN RZ: "The assumption that voters like Georgescu and several parties that have conquered one-third of the Romanian political scene in recent days will suddenly undergo a mass transformation seems naive. Rather, they will consider themselves deceived and that the elites do not want to understand the reasons for their discontent at all. Perhaps they will take to the streets."
https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art41551221-jerzy-haszczynski-sedziowie-decyduja-o-polityce-rumunii
-- WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON THERE - POLITICO EUROPE ON THE ROMANIAN ELECTIONS: https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-politics-election-calin-georgescu-elena-lasconi-what-the-hell-is-going-on/
-- PIS IS SOFTENING ITS STANCE ON ABORTION. SUSKI: "I WAS ALWAYS FOR COMPROMISE" - PAULINA NODZYŃSKA IN GW: "PiS politicians are increasingly stating: 'I was never for tightening abortion law.' In Civic Coalition (KO), they have no doubts: the PiS leader is setting a 'pro-compromise' direction for the campaign."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31524962,pis-mieknie-w-sprawie-aborcji-suski-zawsze-bylem-za-kompromisem.html
-- WHO IS JOZKAFKA, THE AUTHOR OF THE REPORT ON KAROL NAWROCKI - IZABELA KACPRZAK IN RZ: "We know how the report on Karol Nawrocki reached PiS. It was sent via email from an address that no longer exists – 'Rzeczpospolita' has established. The email was sent from the address: [email protected]. Today, this email address no longer exists. (...) This report, which was not commissioned by us, as we didn't need it, was generated by a company owned by a former journalist and Confederation politician who wanted to undermine Nawrocki. Why? Because only he can take votes from the nationalist circles away from Sławomir Mentzen, whom the Confederation is fielding for president – a source within PiS leadership tells us."
-- THE FACT THAT THE AUTHOR OF THE REPORT ON THE PRESIDENT OF THE INSTITUTE OF NATIONAL REMEMBRANCE IS SOMEONE FROM "BLACK PUBLIC RELATIONS" IS INDICATED, AMONG OTHER THINGS, BY THE ENGLISH TERM "HIT PIECE" USED IN IT, FROM THE SLANG OF BLACK PR SPECIALISTS - FURTHERMORE - IZABELA KACPRZAK IN RZ: "The fragment refers to a text by Piotr Głuchowski from 'Gazeta Wyborcza' about Nawrocki, in which an anonymous source talks, among other things, about his contacts with a former SB officer and about arranging prostitutes in hotels. 'A typical 'hit piece' from Wyborcza, calculated to smear Nawrocki using the most primitive associations,' states the report's author."
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41550321-kim-jest-jozkafka-autor-raportu-o-karolu-nawrockim
-- NO SENSATIONS WILL BE FOUND IN GDAŃSK OR THE INSTITUTE OF NATIONAL REMEMBRANCE. "NAWROCKI STILL KEPT HIMSELF IN CHECK" - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: "It might turn out that nothing more will emerge regarding the candidate's contacts and acquaintances, and Joński and Szczerba will not find any revelations in the Second World War Museum or the Institute of National Remembrance that would surpass the caliber of previous media publications or the anonymous report. After all, Nawrocki's successors at the Second World War Museum haven't found anything extraordinary so far. I hear that 'Nawrocki still kept himself in check.' It's rather his colleagues who were distributing neo-Nazis."
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31518960,kto-to-polozyl-kaczynskiemu-na-biurku-w-pis-trwaja-poszukiwania.html
-- I FORESAW THAT WE WOULD BE DEALING WITH A REAL STATE OF EMERGENCY. THAT IS, ONE IN WHICH LEGAL CERTAINTY WOULD BE ELIMINATED, AND ONLY FROM THE SUBSEQUENT ACTIONS OF THE GOVERNMENT AND ADMINISTRATION WOULD WE BE ABLE TO INFER THAT SOME LAW STILL APPLIES, AND ANOTHER HAS LOST ITS FORCE BECAUSE TUSK DECIDED TO IGNORE IT - JAN ROKITA IN WSZYSTKO CO NAJWAŻNIEJSZE: "When Donald Tusk came to power a year ago, and shortly thereafter forcibly took over television and began suspending the force of subsequent laws, I foresaw that we would be dealing with a real state of emergency. That is, one in which legal certainty would be eliminated, and only from the subsequent actions of the government and administration would we be able to infer that some law still applies, and another has already lost its force because Tusk decided to ignore it. Like many observers of Polish politics, I knew well that Tusk's plan for governing Poland, which is also his concept for staying in power, is based on two pillars: revenge on the right, which is meant to satisfy the rabble, and a culture war, which is meant to constantly mobilize domestic and foreign 'progressive forces' in defense of power. After a year of the new government, I have no doubt that my forecast was accurate, as it correctly identified the goals guiding the new prime minister."
-- TUSK'S ABSURDITY IS CHASING ABSURDITY, AND ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A LACK OF ANY SERIOUSNESS IN THE ACTIONS OF THE STATE AND LAW IN ALL OF THIS. THESE ACTIONS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY FURTHER THREATS FORMULATED IN SLANG - FURTHERMORE, JAN ROKITA: "Earlier, the driver of the PiS leader was penalized due to tinted windows on a company car. Regardless, in both these actions, Tusk's absurdity is chasing absurdity, and additionally, there is a lack of any seriousness in the actions of the state and law in all of this. These actions are accompanied by further threats formulated in slang by the head of government online. And even earlier, Tusk solemnly announced such nonsensical criminal sensations as the theft of one hundred billion zlotys by PiS politicians. It is hard not to get the impression that Tusk is flailing in some strange state of inability."
-- CHAPEAU BAS, MR. PRESIDENT!!! YOU FINALLY SET AN EXAMPLE OF HOW TO USE THE RIGHT TO SELF-DEFENSE - ROKITA'S CONCLUSION: "And by the way, I still can't believe that the PiS leader, ten years my senior, managed to land three right hooks on the jaw of that fanatical (or – more likely – hired) thug near the Smoleńsk catastrophe monument amidst the chaos and confusion. If this is true – then chapeau bas, Mr. President!!! You finally set an example of how to use the right to self-defense when it is an absolute duty to defend the desecrated memory of our Dear Departed."
https://wszystkoconajwazniejsze.pl/jan-rokita-trzy-prawe-sierpowe/
-- IF WE DON'T WIN THESE ELECTIONS, THE ENTIRE PROJECT WILL COLLAPSE. PIS COULD RETURN TO POWER FASTER THAN IT SEEMS - WE HEAR FROM A MEMBER OF THE PLATFORM'S LEADERSHIP - KAMIL DZIUBKA IN ONE: "- If we don't win these elections, the entire project will collapse. PiS could return to power faster than it seems. We know this, but we also want to make our voters, who went to the polls in 2023 and voted for us, aware of this. One more effort is needed – we hear from a member of the Civic Platform's leadership."
-- ONE OF THE CAMPAIGN MOTIFS IS TO SHOW WHAT THE RULING CAMP CAN DO IF THE POLITICAL AFFILIATION OF THE PALACE'S RESIDENT CHANGES - FURTHERMORE, DZIUBKA: "Therefore, one of the campaign motifs is to show what the ruling camp can do if the political affiliation of the President's Palace resident changes. And of course, a perspective will be outlined based on a scenario assuming that the presidency remains in the hands of Law and Justice."
-- IN THE SECOND ROUND, IT WILL BE 50/50. 400,000 VOTES CAN DECIDE. A MAXIMUM OF ONE MILLION, BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON TURNOUT AND MOBILIZATION - FURTHERMORE, DZIUBKA'S CONVERSATIONALISTS FROM PO: "Our interlocutor adds: - In the second round, it will be 50/50. 400,000 votes can decide. A maximum of one million, but it will depend on turnout and mobilization. Rafał Trzaskowski lost the second round to Andrzej Duda in 2020 by 420,000 votes. However, at that time, the entire state apparatus, including public media, worked for the success of the PiS candidate. This will not be the case now. This time, the Mayor of Warsaw is the favorite. Nawrocki remains an enigma, also for part of the PiS electorate."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/trzaskowski-z-tuskiem-wchodza-do-kampanii-zero-o-nawrockim/xjtdk9p,79cfc278
-- THE ECONOMY IS TO BE ONE OF THE PILLARS OF RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN. CAMPAIGN STAFF ALSO EMPHASIZE THE NEED TO REGAIN DEMOBILIZED VOTER GROUPS – ESPECIALLY YOUNG PEOPLE AND WOMEN - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK AND DOMINIKA SITNICKA IN OKO.PRESS.
-- ALL SIGNS IN HEAVEN (SOARING POLL SUPPORT) AND EARTH (CHAOS AND CONFLICTS WITHIN PIS) INDICATE THAT THIS TIME IT WILL BE DIFFERENT AND TRZASKOWSKI HAS THE WIN IN HIS POCKET - FURTHERMORE, SZCZĘŚNIAK AND SITNICKA IN OKO: "All signs in heaven (soaring poll support) and earth (chaos and conflicts within PiS) indicate that this time it will be different and Trzaskowski has the win in his pocket. However, his campaign team prefers to err on the side of caution. This is understandable, as the uncertainty of victory should rather mobilize."
-- WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT THIS IS ONE OF THE STAFF'S STRATEGIES: THROUGH THE MOUTHS OF JOURNALISTS, TO CONVINCE PEOPLE THAT NOTHING IS DECIDED AND IN THIS WAY TO DRAW MORE PEOPLE INTO CHEERING FOR TRZASKOWSKI - EVEN FURTHER, SZCZĘŚNIAK AND SITNICKA: "Our interlocutors are convinced that Nawrocki will not only reach the second round but will also have support close to Trzaskowski's. We cannot rule out that this is one of the staff's strategies: through the mouths of journalists, to convince people that nothing is decided and in this way to draw more people into cheering for Trzaskowski, and as a result, to get them to the polls. After all, Trzaskowski is a paradoxical figure: the defender of a title he has never won. And he cannot afford to let his own base become complacent."
-- IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE DONALD TUSK NODDING HIS HEAD WITH UNDERSTANDING: 'THE CANDIDATE ORDERS, THE PRIME MINISTER MUST OBEY'. BUT WE HAVE SEEN SUCH THINGS BEFORE - SZCZĘŚNIAK AND SITNICKA WRITE FURTHER IN OKO: "From Trzaskowski's campaign staff, one can hear that he is to play the role of an accelerator. Someone who points out where the government has failed and demands corrections or a higher gear. This could relate, for example, to issues concerning the judiciary or to partnership unions (about which more later). He might also indicate what the government should do to improve citizens' financial well-being (also about this later). It is hard to imagine Donald Tusk nodding his head with understanding: 'The candidate orders, the Prime Minister must obey.' But we have seen such things before."
-- HE WILL NOT GO TO KANAŁ ZERO - CLAIM THE AUTHORS OF THE ANALYSIS IN OKO.PRESS: "Trzaskowski does not have the Public Television, harnessed to the party machinery, against him this time. Most viewers of TVP, managed by PiS politicians, have now been taken over by Telewizja Republika. According to his associates, the Mayor of Warsaw has nothing to look for there and does not intend to appear. Trzaskowski will also not go to Kanał Zero if such a proposal arises. Firstly, it is not the electoral base of the coalition, and secondly – in their opinion, KZ uses dirty tricks. In Civic Coalition (KO), immense indignation was caused by a recent broadcast in which several journalists, including Krzysztof Stanowski and Robert Mazurek, called MEP Marta Wcisło live in the middle of the night to tell her that she had won the 'award for the most beautiful mind in Polish politics.'
https://oko.press/6-rzeczy-ktore-juz-wiemy-o-kampanii-rafala-trzaskowskiego
-- TEACHERS, CIVIL SERVANTS, NURSES, AND RURAL HOUSEWIVES WILL CHOOSE THE PRESIDENT - ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW ON TRZASKOWSKI'S STRATEGY: "These are specific female voters: among others, teachers, civil servants, nurses, but also women socially involved in Rural Housewives' Circles. Therefore, at the very beginning of the pre-campaign, Trzaskowski visited housewives from Kozia Wola, with whom he sang, ate cake, and swayed to the rhythm of folk songs. It's clear who this reminds us of: Aleksander Kwaśniewski, a member of the Warsaw political elite, an extremely privileged man from the top of power, was able to convince Polish men and women in 1995 that he was a representative of the interests of the broadly understood populace."
-- TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN STAFF ARE AWARE OF THE FLAWS IN THEIR LEADER'S IMAGE - FURTHERMORE, GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: "Trzaskowski's campaign staff are aware of the flaws in their leader's image. A part of the public perceives him as a lazy politician, although in all election campaigns since 2018, he has proven the opposite. Therefore, now, at the crack of dawn, he visits all those places where he can count on additional votes and slightly improve his image."
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31518596,prezydenta-wybiora-nauczycielki-urzedniczki-pielegniarki-i.html
-- 6TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATH OF JOLANTA SZCZYPIŃSKA. She passed away in 2018, after a serious illness, at the age of just 61.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Czuma, Witold Pahl, Adam Kwiatkowski. SUNDAY: Katarzyna Sławińska, Marek Pol, Jacek Michałowski, Tomasz Lenz, Joanna Kos-Krauze, Michał Królikowski.
live
7 hours
7 hours
„It was awesome.” — Morawiecki asked about his meeting in Dębica
7 hours
„That old communist shouldn't be Marshal of the Sejm.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty
8 hours
„They Don't Bother Me At All." Morawiecki on "Attacks” — from within the United Right Camp
8 hours
„I Want to Address All Local Government Officials.” — Morawiecki on a New Program
8 hours
„An Absolutely Shameless Letter from Communist Apparatchiks.” — Morawiecki on Siwiec's Letter Regarding National Security Bureau Topics
8 hours
„Let's Demand This Questionnaire Be Filled Out.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty's Security Survey
12 hours
„It's Worth Knowing Who We're Dealing With.” — Prime Minister Poses with Anne Applebaum's Book
13 hours
Czarzasty: I Have Access to All the Most Secret Information
13 hours
Sikorski's Sejm Address Postponed. Czarzasty Announces New Date
state of play
STATE OF PLAY: Tusk Needs a New Program, an Exit from the Grey, and a Renewed Contract with Voters; Doda's Ordeal in the TVP Studio
state of play
yesterday
STATE OF PLAY: Braun's Crown - Destination: China and Russia; Skrzydłowska-Kalukin: The Far-Right is Not a Margin; Stanley: Take Euroskepticism's Concerns Seriously
state of play
02/03/2026
Gruszczyński: Morawiecki and Sikorski's Positions Similar Within Their Parties, Żukowska's Strong Entrance to the Political Season, Szczęśniak: Will Pełczyńska Programmatically Threaten the Left? WM: InPost Triumphs in Dispute with Allegro
state of play
02/02/2026
Polish Political Landscape: Hołownia's Allies, Kaczynski's Health, Electoral Shifts, and Societal Divisions
state of play
01/31/2026
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: RZ: 18 Maternity Wards Closed in Four Weeks of the New Year, Skrzydlewska: Konfederacja No Longer Terrifying, Braun Makes it Part of the Mainstream
state of play
01/30/2026
STATE OF PLAY: Nawrocki Aims to Lead Presidency in Opposition to Warsaw Media and Daily Agendas, Res Futura: Krakow Referendum Enters the Radar
state of play
01/29/2026