-- WŁADYSŁAW FRASYNIUK TURNS 70 TODAY. -- ROMANIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: POLLS HAVE NEVER BEEN SO WRONG SINCE 1989 - RZ: “Georgescu's entry into the second round is surprising, as just before the elections, some polls gave the 62-year-old politician only 5% support. As Romanian political commentator Radu Magdin told Reuters, the extent to which polls misjudged the support for this candidate is unprecedented in Romania's recent history.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41492471-zaskakujacy-wynik-wyborow-prezydenckich-w-rumunii-pierwsza-taka-sytuacja-od-34-lat -- I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY THIS HELP CAN'T COME FASTER - MONIKA MUSKAŁA – TRANSLATOR, WRITER, DOCUMENTARIST ON THE FLOOD IN HER HOMETOWN OF KŁODZKO AND THE SOURCES OF POPULISM IN POLAND, AUSTRIA, AND THE USA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ROMAN PAWŁOWSKI ON OKO.PRESS: “On Matejki Street in Kłodzko, one of the most affected by the flood, two girls ran a small grocery store. The flood destroyed everything, the goods, the refrigerators; the water was up to the ceiling. A well-known Kłodzko dentist had an office near the Franciscan church, equipped with modern equipment. The encroaching water demolished the thick monastery wall, blew out two doors with their frames, and flooded everything. There are many more such small businesses, shops totally destroyed. I don't understand why this help can't come faster.” -- IT IS SAD THAT IT TAKES SO LONG TO ASSESS DAMAGES AND PAY COMPENSATION. IT MAKES YOU WANT TO CRY; PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO DOUBT THE GOVERNMENT'S PROMISES - MUSKAŁA CONTINUES ON OKO.PRESS: “It is sad that it takes so long to assess damages and pay compensation. It makes you want to cry; people are starting to doubt the government's promises. Apparently, there weren't enough people to assess. But if the army was sent to the flood-affected areas, couldn't specialists be brought in to assess the damages as well?” -- WHAT ARE PEOPLE WITH FLOODED HOMES WHO HAVE LOST EVERYTHING SUPPOSED TO DO? I KNOW PEOPLE WHO DIDN'T EVEN HAVE ANYTHING TO WEAR OR SLEEP UNDER AFTER THE FLOOD - MUSKAŁA FURTHER ON OKO.PRESS: “What are people with flooded homes who have lost everything supposed to do? I know people who didn't even have anything to wear or sleep under after the flood. We were preparing clothes for them. They didn't have bed linen, not even a blanket to cover themselves with; they were squatting with family, with friends. And what about those who lost their shops, their workshops? They can't wait indefinitely.” -- THE RIGHT EXPLOITS FEARS - MUSKAŁA ALSO TELLS PAWŁOWSKI ON OKO: “I think it's because the left and liberals don't listen to them. They don't respond to their needs. It's about fears that the right skillfully exploits, for example, by presenting refugees as the greatest threat. And the left has no convincing solutions or social programs. Demanding tolerance and respect for difference is not enough, because migration has become a mass phenomenon, and the coexistence of different cultures and customs under one roof creates tensions and conflicts.” https://oko.press/zalewa-nas-powodz-populizmu-fala-zniszczy-po-drodze-wszystko-to-mnie-przeraza-wywiad -- THE GOVERNMENT HAS DECIDED TO POSTPONE PART OF THE FISCAL ADJUSTMENT, AND THE CONVERGENCE AT A TIME OF LOWER CONSOLIDATION IN 2025 WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS SEEMS UNCOINCIDENTAL - MAREK SKAWIŃSKI ON PORTAL XYZ: “Poland's fiscal tightening will amount to 3.3% of GDP in the years 2025-2028, with the vast majority in the years 2026-2028 (3% of GDP). The government has decided to postpone part of the fiscal adjustment ("backloading"), and the timing of lower consolidation in 2025 with the presidential elections seems uncoincidental. The consequence is higher consolidation in later years.” -- POLITICAL ECONOMY DICTATES QUESTIONING THE CREDIBILITY OF THE COMMITMENT TO CONSOLIDATION IN THE FACE OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SCHEDULED FOR 2027 - SKAWIŃSKI FURTHER ON PORTAL XYZ: “In 2026 and 2027, we will therefore have one of the largest fiscal policy consolidations among EU countries. Political economy dictates questioning the credibility of this commitment in the face of parliamentary elections scheduled for 2027, as well as costly, unfulfilled electoral promises from 2023.” -- FISCAL CONSOLIDATION THEREFORE CASTS SERIOUS DOUBT ON THE FULFILLMENT OF THE PROMISE TO RAISE THE TAX-FREE ALLOWANCE TO PLN 60,000 - SKAWIŃSKI FURTHER ON XYZ: “Fiscal consolidation therefore casts serious doubt on the fulfillment of the promise to raise the tax-free allowance to PLN 60,000, the fiscal cost of which was estimated in 2024 at PLN 48 billion, and for 2025 at PLN 52.5 billion (approx. 1.3% of GDP). The year-on-year nominal increase results from rising revenues and the use of the full tax-free allowance by a broader number of taxpayers.” https://xyz.pl/budzety-pod-sciana/ -- THE WAVE HAS STARTED AGAIN. MONTHS OF PRICE INCREASES ARE COMING - ROBERT KĘDZIERSKI ON MONEY.PL: “Information about rent increases is reaching tenants in Poland. Residents of apartment buildings can't expect the increase in fees to stop. As for this year, my analysis shows that the wave of price increases started in September. And there's no indication that anything will stop it,' says Tomasz Błeszyński, an independent real estate expert. 'Housing cooperatives consistently pass on higher costs to tenants,' he adds.” -- THE INCREASE IN HEATING FEES WILL BE PARTICULARLY SEVERE. THE FIXED FEE MAY GO UP BY 12-23% - KĘDZIERSKI FURTHER ON MONEY.PL: “Another element of the price increases are municipal waste management fees. According to cooperative calculations, the increase may be 30% per person in a household. The increase in heating fees will be particularly severe. The fixed fee may go up by 12-23%, and variable costs could jump by as much as 40%.” -- THE SITUATION OF RESIDENTS HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY WORSENED BY THE ABOLITION OF SHIELD MEASURES THAT PROTECTED AGAINST RISING PRICES OF ELECTRICITY AND HEAT - CLAIMS KĘDZIERSKI ON MONEY.PL: “The new solutions introduced by the government no longer provide such effective protection. An example is the change in the maximum price for heat – from January 1, 2025, the limit will increase to PLN 134.97 per GJ, which means further fee increases for tenants.” https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/fala-znow-ruszyla-nadchodza-miesiace-podwyzek-beda-chcieli-sie-zabezpieczyc-7095089651403360a.html -- SZYMON IS LOSING THE SHOW, HE'S NO LONGER AN ATTRACTION - DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ ON NEWSWEEK: “Who are we for? For you! – Poland 2050 encourages voters from left to right. But its leader, Szymon Hołownia, is no longer a political attraction.” -- STALE JOKES - ONE OF THE FORMER MARSHALS OF THE SEJM ON OFF BY DŁUGOSZ: “– Today, you just need to look at his social media, on YouTube, to see that people aren't excited about it anymore. Those stale jokes, those long-used bon mots… Well, you can't listen to it. But maybe I've gotten old and don't understand politics anymore – says one of the former marshals of the Sejm.” -- HOŁOWNIA HAD NO IDEA FOR HIMSELF, JUST LIKE HE HAS NO IDEA FOR HIS PARTY - DŁUGOSZ FURTHER ON NEWSWEEK: “The position of the second person in the state should "burden" a politician, give him seriousness and significance. Especially when the Marshal is not from the Prime Minister's party and can conduct his own politics. But Hołownia had no idea for himself, just like he has no idea for his party. The coalition partners of October 15 openly say that Poland 2050 was founded solely to fulfill the ambitions of one person.” -- WE'LL SEE IF SZYMON EVEN MAKES IT TO THE END OF THE CAMPAIGN, BECAUSE IN MY OPINION, HE MIGHT STILL CHANGE HIS MIND - A KO POLITICIAN QUOTED IN DŁUGOSZ'S ARTICLE: “We'll see if Szymon even makes it to the end of the campaign, because in my opinion, he might still change his mind. I listen to what's happening within Poland 2050, and its members are also unsure if this campaign is serious – a politician from the front ranks of KO tells us.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/holownia-popelnil-blad-nie-odpowiedzial-na-jedno-pytanie/9wgcy9z -- TUSK'S ATTEMPTS TO SHAVE DOWN TRZASKOWSKI'S IMPENDING POWER - PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN A CONVERSATION WITH MATEUSZ BACZYŃSKI ON ONE.NET: “This can only be explained by the internal logic of this formation and Donald Tusk's attempts to shave down Trzaskowski's impending power. But the result is, of course, not a surprise.” -- LET'S REMEMBER THAT IT WAS RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI WHO SAVED KO IN THE PREVIOUS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS - PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK FURTHER ON ONE.NET: “Let's remember that it was Rafał Trzaskowski who saved KO in the previous presidential elections. Of course, he didn't win them, because that was impossible, but he led to a close fight, running in a very difficult situation for the party – says the political scientist.” -- TRZASKOWSKI'S ENTOURAGE HAD EARLIER TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT VARIOUS SCENARIOS REGARDING THE UNITED STATES, AND TODAY TRZASKOWSKI IS REAPING THE REWARDS FOR IT - CHWEDORUK FURTHER ON BACZYŃSKI: “And finally, we have the Trump context and a clear difference between the preparation of one candidate for a change in the US and the other. Trzaskowski didn't have to explain anything; on the contrary. His entourage had previously taken into account various scenarios concerning the United States, and today Trzaskowski is reaping the rewards for it – explains the expert.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/ekspert-wskazuje-na-glowny-powod-prawyborow-w-ko-proba-opilowania-nadchodzacej-potegi/t3jbyz5,79cfc278 -- IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI CAN SURPRISE ANYONE IN THE 2025 CAMPAIGN. BUT HE MUST. DESPITE DEROGATORY OPINIONS, THE CANDIDACY OF KAROL NAWROCKI WILL MAKE THE KO CANDIDATE'S PATH TO THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE MORE DIFFICULT - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK ON OKO.PRESS. -- CAN JAGODNO BE REPEATED? - SZCZĘŚNIAK FURTHER ON OKO: “Demobilization action – that's what Karol Nawrocki's candidacy can be summarized as. The ruling coalition owes its victory in 2023 to historical mobilization. Especially the youth, who went to the polls, often for the first time. They voted against the embarrassing PiS, against taking away women's rights. They also voted against Minister of Education Przemysław Czarnek and out of anger at the school system during the pandemic. And probably also simply in a gesture of opposition to power (whatever it may be).” -- THE PRE-CAMPAIGN SPOT REFERS TO THE MOBILIZATION OF 2020. ONLY THAT MOBILIZATION WASN'T ENOUGH - SZCZĘŚNIAK FURTHER: “Will the same people go to the polls in May? Or some new, but numerous ones? This is one of Trzaskowski's biggest challenges: to inspire, to rouse, to bring people to the polls. The spot he released in the pre-campaign refers to the mobilization of 2020. Only that mobilization wasn't enough.” -- ATTACKS ON NAWROCKI? SO FAR, A MISS - SZCZĘŚNIAK FURTHER ON OKO: “Trzaskowski's supporters have already managed to show a lack of tact. A photo of an IPN employee making a heil gesture appeared online. Bartosz Wieliński from "Gazeta Wyborcza" stated that it was Karol Nawrocki, and many well-known sympathizers of the October 15 Coalition shared the photo on social media. Meanwhile, it wasn't Nawrocki, but Tomasz Greniuch. (...) The media supporting PiS has already spread the word that the ruling camp is attacking Nawrocki with fakes.” https://oko.press/trudne-zadanie-trzaskowskiego -- IN KO, THEY CAN'T IMAGINE DEFEAT. IN THE GOVERNMENT CAMP, IT IS HEARD THAT THE VICTORY OF THE PIS CANDIDATE COULD LEAD TO SERIOUS TURBULENCE IN THE GOVERNMENT - KAMIL DZILUBKA ON ONE.NET: “In KO, they can't imagine defeat. In the government camp, it is heard that the victory of the PiS candidate could lead to serious turbulence in the government, and perhaps even blow up the current majority. On the other hand, Rafał Trzaskowski's victory would give the October 15 coalition breathing room, probably until the parliamentary elections. It would also allow for radical reforms, especially in the judiciary.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/rafal-trzaskowski-powalczy-o-palac-prezydencki-donald-tusk-ma-plan/phjc9lk -- KACZYŃSKI: EVEN IF MADNESS GRIPS TUSK AND HE DECIDES TO RUN HIMSELF, HIS OPPONENT WILL BE NAWROCKI - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/11/25 -- KAROL NAWROCKI LIKE DONALD TRUMP! LITERALLY! THESE PEOPLE HE WANTS TO RELEASE FROM PAYING - SE: “Karol Nawrocki has already made his first promises to Poles during his speech. In addition to "ending the Polish-Polish war," the head of the IPN also announced his first legislative initiative that he intends to submit when he becomes president. – To save the prosperity of hardworking Poles, to save the prosperity of all of you, dear ladies and gentlemen, I will come forward with further legislative initiatives, the first of which will be to free hardworking Poles from taxes on overtime work performed – said Karol Nawrocki.” https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/karol-nawrocki-jak-donald-trump-doslownie-slowo-w-slowe-tych-ludzi-chce-zwolnic-z-placenia-aa-vtfp-RhjD-w2Hu.html -- A CANDIDATE OF THE HARD RIGHT, BUT HE MAY POSE AS A CANDIDATE OF THE CENTER - WITOLD GŁOWACKI ON OKO.PRESS: “Nawrocki, on the other hand, was presented as an "independent" and "civic" candidate, striving for "peace among Poles." At the same time, he is a candidate who directly calls for a "great Poland," one born from the slogan "Hail to great Poland.” -- THIS SHOWS A THOUGHTFUL STRATEGY FOR FIGHTING FOR VICTORY IN THE SECOND ROUND OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS - GŁOWACKI FURTHER ON OKO.PRESS: “This shows a thoughtful strategy for fighting for victory in the second round of the presidential elections, for which PiS, of course, needs a considerable pool of votes from outside the party's electorate. Karol Nawrocki, with his demand for a "great Poland," as the head of the IPN, an amateur boxer, and a lover of the National Armed Forces and the Cursed Soldiers, will be a rather natural choice in the second round for some voters of Konfederacja and other non-PiS right-wing currents. The narrative about independence, national unity, and the end of the "Polish-Polish war" seems, on the other hand, to be directly aimed at some voters of the Third Way.” -- NAWROCKI IS NOT A "TEMPORARY" OR "WAIT-AND-SEE" CANDIDATE. BY PUTTING HIM FORWARD, PIS SERIOUSLY COUNTS ON VICTORY IN THE SECOND ROUND OF ELECTIONS - GŁOWACKI FURTHER ON OKO: “Nawrocki is not a "temporary" or "wait-and-see" candidate. By putting him forward, PiS seriously counts on winning the second round of elections, building its campaign strategy based on the "foundational research" mentioned in Kaczyński's speech. The narrative about the end of the "Polish-Polish war" is evidently intended to become the leitmotif of Nawrocki's campaign, alongside "great Poland.” https://oko.press/karol-nawrocki-kandydat-twardej-prawicy-kandydat-srodka -- IF KO ASSUMES THEY HAVE THE WIN IN THEIR POCKET, THEY MAY BE SURPRISED LIKE ANDRZEJ WAJDA IN BRONISŁAW KOMOROWSKI'S CAMPAIGN STAFF - ESTERA FLIEGER ON RZ: “In a sense, this is Kaczyński's "last dance." But if KO assumes they have the win in their pocket, they may be surprised like Andrzej Wajda in Bronisław Komorowski's campaign staff. The "independent" PiS candidate, Dr. Karol Nawrocki, cannot be underestimated.” -- ARBITRARY STATEMENTS ABOUT PATRIOTISM MAY TURN OUT TO BE A RECIPE FOR DEFEAT FOR PIS IN SUCH CIRCUMSTANCES. THE BALL IS STILL IN PLAY - FLIEGER FURTHER ON RZ: “The expected narrative on the right about the "struggle of the third generation of the UB with the third generation of the AK," raising mainly topics such as the abolition of pensions for former communist security service officers and the removal of monuments, digging up files, and arbitrary statements about patriotism may turn out to be a recipe for PiS's defeat in such circumstances. For now, the ball is in play.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41488921-gotowy-na-wszystko-jak-cichociemni-trzykrotnie-okrazyl-ziemie-kim-jest-karol-nawrocki -- KACZYŃSKI FROM YEARS AGO HAS RETURNED. NAWROCKI SHOWED THAT HE REALLY WANTS TO - JACEK GĄDEK ON NEWSWEEK: “Jarosław Kaczyński, gentle as a dove of peace, and Karol Nawrocki, for now, like a smiling cyborg from the future, who reads a smoothly written speech from a card.” -- THIS IDEA IS DIRECTLY COPIED FROM TRUMP, WHO PROMISED EXACTLY THIS - GĄDEK FURTHER: “It is evident that PiS campaign strategists and Nawrocki himself have learned from Trump's winning campaign in the US. Nawrocki promised to "free Poles from taxes on overtime work." This idea is directly copied from Trump, who promised exactly this. He carefully considered the cost of living, such as energy prices, which was also strongly present in the overseas campaign.” -- IT IS CLEAR THAT THE SITUATION FOR PIS IS CRITICAL, SO SUCH DISAGREEMENTS AND GRUDGES ARE PUT ASIDE RATHER THAN FORGOTTEN; NAWROCKI IS TAKING ON SOMETHING THAT LOOKS LIKE A MISSION IMPOSSIBLE - GĄDEK'S CONCLUSION IN NEWSWEEK: “Nowak is an intellectual guru on the right, especially in matters of history. Kaczyński allows him to be a star at the "social" convention in "Sokół." It is clear that the situation for PiS is critical, so such disagreements and grudges are put aside rather than forgotten. Moreover, Nawrocki, personally valued by Nowak (a historian like himself), is undertaking something that looks like a mission impossible.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/wrocil-kaczynski-sprzed-lat-nawrocki-pokazal-ze-bardzo-chce/jzjsgpg -- IF THE FIGHTING BETWEEN FACTIONS IN THIS FORMATION CEASES, VICTORY WILL BE CLOSER THAN ANYONE THINKS - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “He greeted Poles in good style on Sunday. In reality, he just said 'hello.' Well-led by President Jarosław Kaczyński, the pre-election process has given the Polish camp a candidate who has a chance to win against anyone. This may not be the case, but if there is social mobilization, support from Poles for Law and Justice, persecuted by a lack of subsidies and grants, and an end to factional infighting within this formation, then victory will be closer than anyone thinks.” -- IT WAS A GOOD SUNDAY FOR POLAND. I FEEL IT WILL BE GOOD - KARNOWSKI'S CONCLUSION - Karnowski's conclusion. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/713920-prawica-ma-mocnego-kandydata-ktory-moze-wygrac-z-kazdym -- ANATOMY OF OFFENSE. BEHIND THE SCENES OF JACK KURSKI'S SECOND WEDDING AND HIS DEAL WITH HIERARCHS - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI AND MAŁGORZATA SKOWROŃSKA IN GW: “The Gdańsk Metropolitan Tribunal, which annulled the church marriage of then-TVP president Jacek Kurski in 2019, prohibited him from entering into a new sacrament. The ban was lifted by the Bishop of Gdańsk, Sławoj Leszek Głódź. We reveal the findings of the ecclesiastical court and its experts. (...) He delegated all the care for the upbringing of offspring and the management of the household to the defendant. He himself focused on himself and the realization of his goals related to professional work and socio-political activity, to which he completely subordinated his married and family life. Furthermore, witnesses for the defendant confirmed the allegations regarding the plaintiff's infidelity.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31488570,przehandlowany-slub-jacka-kurskiego.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Władysław Frasyniuk (70), Małgorzata Niezabitowska, Elżbieta Łukacijewska, Piotr Pytlakowski, John Abraham Godson.