state of play: 11/21/2024
STATE OF PLAY: Kuisz: Has Berlin Learned Nothing? Unbelievable, Janicki: Weaker individuals in the media will once again buy the narrative of a normal PiS, Płociński: Mentzen the dark horse?
-- POLITICO REPORTS EXCERPTS FROM ANGELA MERKEL'S MEMOIRS PUBLISHED IN THE GERMAN PRESS, IN WHICH SHE ADDRESSES DONALD TRUMP'S FASCINATION WITH PUTIN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PROBABLY NOTHING TO INDICATE THAT IT WENT SO FAR AS FOR TRUMP TO SHUT DOWN, FOR EXAMPLE, AMERICAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS DUE TO THIS FASCINATION: https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-donald-trumo-memoir-book-us-germany-politics-cdu-pope-francis/
-- HAS BERLIN LEARNED NOTHING? - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “And why make that phone call at all, at a time when the whole world knows that the government coalition in Germany has collapsed and elections are imminent. Polls for the SPD are brutal. Radicals triumphed in the recent local elections. Mr. Scholz is weaker than ever before. And at that very moment, he calls President Putin. Unbelievable.”
-- BIDEN ADMINISTRATION'S ENTIRE APPROACH TO WAR POLICY BRINGS ONLY DISAPPOINTMENT - KUISZ CONTINUES: “Only Trump's triumph plus the emergence of a third state directly involved in the war led to a decision. How late. And how opportunistic. It seems that the entire approach of the Biden administration to war policy brings only disappointment.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-kanclerz-niemiec-dzwoni-sobie-do-moskwy,nId,7858643
-- SEVERED CABLES AT THE BOTTOM OF THE BALTIC SEA. IS THIS A DRESS REHEARSAL FOR THE KREMLIN BEFORE LARGER-SCALE ACTION? - WOJCIECH BRZEZIŃSKI AND AGATA KAŹMIERSKA IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “These are tests, but perhaps also reconnaissance and a dress rehearsal for larger-scale action. Russians have two other ships of this class, and they also have other units that can potentially damage underwater infrastructure. Vladimir Putin's advisor, Nikolai Patrushev, stated last week that the US and UK 'are planning to blow up cables and destroy the global Internet.' Katja Bego, an analyst from the British think tank Chatham House, in turn stated on the Bluesky portal that 'the Kremlin's methods suggest we should interpret this as a warning that this is something Russia itself intends to do.'”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/zerwane-kable-na-dnie-baltyku-czy-proba-generalna-kremla-przed-dzialaniem-na-wieksza-skale-189019
-- KO AND PIS ARE NECK AND NECK - ACCORDING TO A SURVEY BY OPINIA24 FOR RADIO ZET: KO with 33 percent. PiS, gains 32 percent. Confederation is consolidating its position in third place with 13 percent of the vote. Lewica (Left) - 10 percent and Trzecia Droga (Third Way) - 8 percent are balancing on the verge of the Sejm entry threshold, which for a coalition is exactly 8 percent. 4 percent of respondents answered "I don't know, hard to say."
-- GIGANTIC HEALTH CONTRIBUTION INCREASE INSTEAD OF THE PROMISED REDUCTION. WHO WILL LOSE? - PRZEMYSŁAW WOJTASIK IN RZ: “The changes to the health contribution proposed by the government for 2026 are unfavorable for entrepreneurs who settle by lump sum and have high revenues. This could affect 131,000 companies.”
https://pro.rp.pl/zus/art41475171-gigantyczna-podwyzka-skladki-zdrowotnej-zamiast-obiecanej-obnizki-kto-straci
-- IF A JANUSZ SETS UP A COMPANY CALLED KAWA LATTE SP. Z O.O., WHERE HE IS THE SOLE PARTNER, HE WILL PAY THE HEALTH CONTRIBUTION. BUT IF SOME JOHANNES HAS A COMPANY LATTE-KFFEE GMBH IN BERLIN AND IT SETS UP A COMPANY IN WARSAW, IT WON'T PAY THE HEALTH CONTRIBUTION - ROBERT GWIAZDOWSKI IN RZ:
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art41474351-robert-gwiazdowski-awantura-o-skladki-dlaczego-janusz-zaplaci-a-johanes-juz-nie
-- “THERE IS NO CONSENT FOR THIS, DAMMIT”. CZARZASTY ON THE GOVERNMENT'S PROPOSAL TO CHANGE THE HEALTH CONTRIBUTION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/11/21
-- THE INSURING OF CIVIL-LAW CONTRACTS, WHICH POLAND COMMITTED TO AS PART OF THE SO-CALLED KPO MILESTONES, WILL NOT BE IMPLEMENTED - MONEY.PL LEARNS - GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK: “- Within the scope designed by the predecessors in the KPO, this milestone will not be implemented. We will not introduce simple insurance for all civil-law contracts, including contracts for specific work. The decision has already been made. Such a solution would burden employers and contractors with an amount of around PLN 5-7 billion,” money.pl reports.
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/jest-decyzja-rzadu-w-sprawie-ozusowania-umow-co-na-taki-krok-powie-bruksela-7094754594146912a.html
-- THIS SHOWS THAT IF YOU CAN'T GAIN SUPPORT IN YOUR OWN FORMATION, YOU TRY IN ANOTHER - IWONA SZPALA AND AGNIESZKA KUBLIK QUOTE A POLITICIAN SUPPORTING TRZASKOWSKI: “The recording with support from the former president did not impress the Trzaskowski camp. - Kwaśniewski doesn't vote in the primaries, their outcome doesn't depend on external support – we hear. – It shows that if you can't gain support in your own formation, you try in another.”
-- :((( THE LEFT-WING POLITICIANS, ON THE OTHER HAND, EXPECTED KWAŚNIEWSKI TO OPENLY SUPPORT THEIR CANDIDATE - GW CONTINUES.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31479958,trzaskowski-lowi-w-ko-sikorski-gdzie-sie-da-prawybory-na.html
-- MENTZEN IS THE ONLY ONE SPEAKING WITH A DIFFERENT VOICE ON THE WAR. WILL HE BE THE DARK HORSE OF THE ELECTIONS? - MICHAŁ PŁOCIŃSKI IN RZ: “For the average voter, the Confederation's leader is still not fully integrated into the political scene. And certainly less so than its other leader, Krzysztof Bosak. The question is, however, what will be the main theme of the presidential campaign. Because if it is indeed the war in Ukraine, then Mentzen is in a very advantageous position from the start.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41472751-michal-plocinski-slawomir-mentzen-jako-jedyny-mowi-o-wojnie-innym-glosem-bedzie-czarnym-koniem-wyborow
-- KACZYŃSKI IS THINKING MAINLY NOT ABOUT HIS OWN VOTERS, BUT ABOUT THE CHANCES OF ATTRACTING VOTES IN THE SECOND ROUND. THAT IS, ABOUT THE VOTES OF KONFEDERACJA VOTERS, BUT ALSO THE CONSERVATIVE WING OF TRZECIA DROGA. ESPECIALLY IF RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI WERE TO BECOME THE KO CANDIDATE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “This does not mean that Czarnek has no chances, but the calculations that Kaczyński is currently making make his start less likely recently. Why? Because Kaczyński is thinking mainly not about his own voters, but about the chances of attracting votes in the second round. That is, about the votes of Konfederacja voters, but also the conservative wing of Trzecia Droga. Especially if Rafał Trzaskowski were to become the KO candidate. For many sympathizers of PSL, and probably a small percentage of Szymon Hołownia's voters, the support of the Warsaw mayor would be problematic.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41473411-michal-szuldrzynski-karol-nawrocki-ma-w-tej-chwili-zdecydowanie-najwieksze-szanse-na-nominacje-pis
-- THE RIGHT IS COUNTING ON OLD TRICKS WORKING AGAIN, WEAKER INDIVIDUALS IN THE MEDIA (ALWAYS THE SAME ONES) WILL ONCE AGAIN BUY THE NARRATIVE OF A NORMAL, QUITE SYMPATHETIC PiS CANDIDATE - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The right is counting on old tricks working again, weaker individuals in the media (always the same ones) will once again buy the narrative of a normal PiS presidential candidate and will write about the quite likeable Przemysław Czarnek (such texts have already appeared) or others 'who are not burdened by the sins of the last eight years.' It will depend solely on the common sense and cold blood of the October coalition voters whether this propaganda campaign will be repelled.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2278789,1,trumpowierni-w-pis-trwa-karnawal-licza-ze-stare-chwyty-znow-sie-sprawdza.read
-- SIKORSKI'S VICTORY MAY SLIGHTLY SHIFT THE ENTIRE GOVERNMENTAL ALIGNMENT TO THE RIGHT, SYMBOLICALLY STRENGTHENING THE RIGHT LEG IN THE FORM OF PSL AND POLSKA 2050 - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Although one can believe Sikorski that as president he will not block partnership unions and the liberalization of abortion laws, his victory in the KO primaries, and then in the presidential election, may slightly shift the entire governmental alignment to the right, symbolically strengthening the right leg in the form of PSL and Polska 2050, while weakening the left's influence in the coalition.”
-- TRZASKOWSKI STILL SEEMS TO BE THE SAFER OPTION, HE HAS A GREATER CHANCE OF DELIVERING VICTORY - MAJMUREK CONTINUES IN KRYTYKA: “Because the defeat of the democratic camp's candidate could ruin the entire political project of the October 15th coalition. And despite all the disappointments that this government often brings to left-wing voters, it is still a project worth giving a chance for at least one full term, especially considering the alternatives. And in this regard, Trzaskowski still seems to be the safer option; he has a greater chance of delivering victory.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/za-kogo-wyborca-lewicy-ma-trzymac-kciuki-w-prawyborach-ko/
-- CONTROVERSIAL WORDS OF JACK JAŚKOWIAK ON TOK FM - THE HOST OBJECTED, POINTING OUT THAT SEXUAL ORIENTATION IS IRRELEVANT. BUT THE MAYOR OF POZNAŃ CONTINUED: “Controversial words of Mayor Jacek Jaśkowiak on TOK FM regarding the former rector of Collegium Humanum. The host objected, pointing out that sexual orientation is irrelevant. But the Mayor of Poznań continued. (...) And in this regard, a person who is still gay, one year in custody, I can imagine that he will say whatever the prosecutor wants him to say – said Jaśkowiak, not reacting to the journalist's remark: 'What does that matter?'”
https://www.tokfm.pl/Tokfm/7,103087,31480702,kontrowersyjne-slowa-jacka-jaskowiaka-w-tok-fm-chodzi-o-afere.html
-- FOR LOCAL OFFICIALS, TWO TERMS ARE NO LONGER ENOUGH. THEY ALSO WANT TO EARN EXTRA IN COMPANIES. MIEJSKIE RUCHY PROTESTS - NATALIA SAWKA IN OKO.PRESS: “They believe that their involvement in the election campaign helped the ruling coalition win the elections. Wrocław councilor Jakub Nowotarski says that local officials will put pressure on Trzaskowski to announce his consent to abolish the two-term limit in exchange for support in the KO primaries, and then in the presidential election. 'This is simply some unimaginable and incomprehensible greed,' he said during a press conference.”
https://oko.press/samorzadowcom-dwie-kadencje-juz-nie-starcza
-- BIRTHDAYS: Katarzyna Kolenda-Zaleska, Tomasz Serwański, Maciej Manicki, Wanda Nowicka, Joanna Lichocka, Patrycja Kotecka.
live
7 hours
7 hours
„It was awesome.” — Morawiecki asked about his meeting in Dębica
7 hours
„That old communist shouldn't be Marshal of the Sejm.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty
8 hours
„They Don't Bother Me At All." Morawiecki on "Attacks” — from within the United Right Camp
8 hours
„I Want to Address All Local Government Officials.” — Morawiecki on a New Program
8 hours
„An Absolutely Shameless Letter from Communist Apparatchiks.” — Morawiecki on Siwiec's Letter Regarding National Security Bureau Topics
8 hours
„Let's Demand This Questionnaire Be Filled Out.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty's Security Survey
12 hours
„It's Worth Knowing Who We're Dealing With.” — Prime Minister Poses with Anne Applebaum's Book
13 hours
Czarzasty: I Have Access to All the Most Secret Information
13 hours
Sikorski's Sejm Address Postponed. Czarzasty Announces New Date
state of play
STATE OF PLAY: Tusk Needs a New Program, an Exit from the Grey, and a Renewed Contract with Voters; Doda's Ordeal in the TVP Studio
state of play
yesterday
STATE OF PLAY: Braun's Crown - Destination: China and Russia; Skrzydłowska-Kalukin: The Far-Right is Not a Margin; Stanley: Take Euroskepticism's Concerns Seriously
state of play
02/03/2026
Gruszczyński: Morawiecki and Sikorski's Positions Similar Within Their Parties, Żukowska's Strong Entrance to the Political Season, Szczęśniak: Will Pełczyńska Programmatically Threaten the Left? WM: InPost Triumphs in Dispute with Allegro
state of play
02/02/2026
Polish Political Landscape: Hołownia's Allies, Kaczynski's Health, Electoral Shifts, and Societal Divisions
state of play
01/31/2026
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: RZ: 18 Maternity Wards Closed in Four Weeks of the New Year, Skrzydlewska: Konfederacja No Longer Terrifying, Braun Makes it Part of the Mainstream
state of play
01/30/2026
STATE OF PLAY: Nawrocki Aims to Lead Presidency in Opposition to Warsaw Media and Daily Agendas, Res Futura: Krakow Referendum Enters the Radar
state of play
01/29/2026