-- THIS IS A SERIOUS WARNING FOR DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT – MARIUSZ JANICKI, DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The US presidential election showed that if people want political change, nothing will stop them. They will choose any solution, regardless of the offenses, crimes, and absurdities associated with it. This is a serious warning for Donald Tusk's government.” -- LIBERAL DEMOCRACY CAN ONLY BE DEFENDED WHEN VOTERS PERCEIVE THEIR ECONOMIC SITUATION AS GOOD AND PROMISING – MARIUSZ JANICKI CONTINUES: “One way or another, liberal democracy can only be defended when voters perceive their economic situation as good and promising. In Poland, for a decade, the 'giving' state has become the norm, even if it doesn't solve systemic problems. Of course, fixing entire public sectors (e.g., healthcare) is always desirable, but in critical political periods, like now – before the key elections in 2025 – the priority for the ruling coalition remains to maintain social approval and block flows to the only real alternative – PiS.” -- THE BELIEF THAT VOTERS HAVE PUT THEIR ENTHUSIASM IN THE FRIDGE AND WILL TAKE IT OUT UNDAMAGED BEFORE NEXT YEAR'S ELECTIONS IS ILLUSORY – WRITES THE DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Apparently, a period of transition is underway – until the change in the Presidential Palace – but this is not a politically consequence-free time for Platforma and the coalition. The belief that voters have put their enthusiasm in the fridge and will take it out undamaged before next year's elections is illusory. The presidential election is a prerequisite for good governance in the future, but winning this election by the democratic camp requires much more qualitative governance now.” -- SO FAR, THE GOVERNMENT IS NEITHER VERY SPECTACULAR NOR EXCEPTIONALLY EFFECTIVE, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR A RESTART – ONE OF MARIUSZ JANICKI'S CONCLUSIONS: “Tusk will not run for president, but he will de facto participate in the campaign. The success of the democratic camp in the upcoming elections depends on his authority. So far, the government is neither very spectacular nor exceptionally effective, although there is still some time for a restart.” -- VOTERS ARE WAITING FOR THE SECOND GEAR TO BE ENGAGED, AS IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT WHAT WE HAVE SO FAR WILL SUFFICE TO WIN THE MOST IMPORTANT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SINCE 1989 – CONCLUDES JANICKI: “Voters are waiting for the second gear to be engaged, as it seems unlikely that what we have so far will suffice to win the most important presidential election since 1989. The hallmarks of the new government must appear, broader implementation of KPO programs, more effective aid for flood victims, as PiS is already fueling this issue, housing, healthcare, and senior care programs, civil defense, etc.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2278811,1,powazne-ostrzezenie-dla-tuska-czy-demokracje-da-sie-w-ogole-obronic-przed-populizmem.read -- TENS OF THOUSANDS GATHERED IN LONDON, INCLUDING JEREMY CLARKSON AND ANDREW LLOYD WEBBER, TO PROTEST THE GOVERNMENT'S RAID ON FARMERS WITH AN INHERITANCE TAX – THE DAILY TELEGRAPH. Clarkson's statements provoked a response from Labour politicians, including Prime Minister Starmer at the G7 summit in Brazil: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/19/tractor-protest-live-inheritance-tax-raid-clarkson/ -- “I WILL PRESENT ARGUMENTS THAT THIS IS A BAD SOLUTION.” DOMAŃSKI ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEING FREE – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/11/20 -- POOR MOOD AMONG POLES. FOUR OUT OF FIVE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN BILLS AND FEES – RZ: “80% of us expect an increase in bills, fees, and living costs in the next 12 months. 44.8% of respondents indicated that they would increase slightly, and 34.8% indicated a significant increase. Only slightly over 5% of respondents are of the opposite opinion. Every sixth respondent (15.4%) believes that they will remain unchanged.” -- THE MOST UNEASY ARE SENIORS, RESIDENTS OF MAŁOPOLSKA AND SILESIA, VILLAGES AND TOWNS UP TO 20 THOUSAND – ACCORDING TO A STUDY PUBLISHED BY RZ: “Nearly 90% of all people who most expect price increases are seniors (65-74 years old). (...) The conducted study also shows that residents of Małopolska and Silesia most often expect an increase in bills and living costs. (...) The largest number of people who indicate they may have trouble paying some obligations after the increases live in villages (34.7%) and almost as many in towns up to 20,000 inhabitants (34.6%).” https://www.rp.pl/gospodarka/art41469021-kiepskie-nastroje-polakow-czterech-na-pieciu-spodziewa-sie-duzego-wzrostu-rachunkow-i-oplat -- I PAID 70.50 PLN FOR THEM NOW. TWO YEARS AGO, IT WAS 61.47 PLN. IS A 9 PLN DIFFERENCE A LOT? JUDGE FOR YOURSELVES. IN MY OPINION, IT'S QUITE A LOT, ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE COMPARING ONLY A DOZEN OR SO PRODUCTS – ONET JOURNALIST ANNA ROJEK-KIEŁBASA COMPARED TWO BILLS, ONE FROM 2022: https://www.onet.pl/styl-zycia/onetkobieta/zrobilam-te-same-zakupy-co-dwa-lata-temu-ten-produkt-podrozal-najbardziej/5fjgp10,2b83378a -- THE KEY TO VICTORY WILL BE THE ELECTORATE OF WHOEVER TAKES THIRD PLACE. THIS MECHANISM HAS REPEATED MANY TIMES – PROF. ANTONI DUDEK TELLS FAKT: “If Mentzen takes third place in the first round, then yes. The key to victory will be the electorate of whoever takes third place. This mechanism has repeated many times. For example – in 2015, Kukiz's electorate decided Andrzej Duda's victory. In 2005 – Andrzej Lepper's electorate decided Lech Kaczyński's victory,” explains Prof. Antoni Dudek. https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/oto-klucz-do-wygranej-w-wyborach-znajdzie-go-kaczynski-czy-tusk/wrg2f9z -- THE LOSS OF SUBSIDIES FOR PIS, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SCALE OF THE CAMPAIGN, AND THE PRIMARY ELECTIONS IN KO, WHOSE CANDIDATE WILL BE THE MAIN OPPONENT OF PIS, ARE THE REASONS WHY PIS IS POSTPONING THE DECISION ON CHOOSING ITS CANDIDATE – IZABELA KACPRZAK IN RZ. https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41469271-kandydata-pis-na-prezydenta-poznamy-w-najblizszy-weekend-wiekszosc-w-partii-za -- PSL MP PRAISES TRZASKOWSKI – AS JAROSŁAW RZEPA SAYS IN A CONVERSATION WITH NATALIA SAWKA IN OKO.PRESS: “I am angry at Deputy Marshal Michał Kamiński, because he stirred up this pot. Today he says that Radosław Sikorski would be the best candidate for the Civic Platform for president. Ultimately, people make the choice. We cannot forget that it must be a candidate acceptable to at least 50% of voters. It should be someone who shows more empathy. Even if they say that today a strong and decisive character is needed, it is not enough. He must be effective, and it seems to me that Rafał Trzaskowski is more effective today.” -- PSL MP EXPLAINS WHY HE CHANGED HIS MIND ABOUT ABORTION VOTES – CONTINUES IN SAWKA'S OKO: “I knew that the bill in one form or another would return to the Sejm's agenda, so I said that if the same arguments were made at these meetings, I promise that next time I will vote according to the electorate's expectations, not according to my own convictions. And I was strongly torn between my own worldview and the expectations of the liberal electorate; I felt it strongly.” https://oko.press/posel-psl-po-moim-glosowaniu-w-sprawie-aborcji-kobiety-mowily-wprost-jestesmy-na-ciebie-wkurzone -- PRIMARY ELECTIONS AND "SUPERPOLL", OR TWO PORTIONS OF BULLSHIT FROM KO – ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “As a voter, I would like KO to treat me seriously, and I have the impression that they are feeding me two solid portions of bullshit. (...) the pretense – and this is the first portion of bullshit – that KO is organizing "primary elections" in this way is a gross misunderstanding. Primary elections in 13 days?! How many places can one visit in such a short time? How many meetings can one hold?” -- THE SITUATION OF THE RESPONDENT IS DIFFERENT, AND THEIR ANSWERS ARE DIFFERENT WHEN ASKED ABOUT SIKORSKI, WHILE THEY HAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT TRZASKOWSKI ALREADY HAS THE NOMINATION IN HIS POCKET AND HAS NO IDEA THAT KO WILL SOON ANNOUNCE SOME KIND OF AT LEAST PARTIAL PRIMARY ELECTION – MACHOWSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “The respondent's situation is different, and their answers are different when asked about Sikorski, while they have the impression that Trzaskowski already has the nomination in his pocket (and has no idea that KO will soon announce some kind of at least partial primary election between them), and different when they witness real primary elections and can observe what each candidate has to say.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31475884,prawybory-i-supersondaz-czyli-dwie-porcje-kitu-od-ko.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Jadwiga Rotnicka, Jacek Merkel, Jolanta Pieńkowska.