state of play: 11/14/2024
POLITICAL ARENA: Kuisz: 'America First' is as Disturbing as 'France First' and 'Germany First'; Długosz: Nobody Can Answer Whose Favor Voter Fatigue Will Benefit in Six Months
-- CURRENTLY, EVERYONE IS TALKING LIKE TRUMP – 'AMERICA FIRST', BUT IT YIELDS LOCAL VERSIONS, E.G., 'FRANCE FIRST', 'GERMANY FIRST' – JAROSŁAW KUISZ ON INTERIA: “Calling snap elections under these circumstances is alarming, as both France and Germany are increasingly preoccupied with their internal affairs. Only within this context can we understand where the war in Ukraine and our security are heading: towards concessions to President Putin.”
-- POLISH DIPLOMACY IS LIKELY COUNTING ON WASHINGTON'S PROFESSIONALISM, MEANING PRETENDING THE INCIDENT NEVER HAPPENED. BUT THESE ARE STANDARDS OF THE OLD WORLD – KUISZ FURTHER ON INTERIA: “Polish diplomacy is likely counting on Washington's professionalism, meaning pretending the incident never happened. But these are standards of the old world. Currently, it might turn out that the Trump administration will not refrain from certain unfriendly gestures towards Poland. After all, only a naive person could believe that Washington is unaware of the slogans under which Prime Minister Tusk is winning. Moreover, Donald Trump highly values Viktor Orbán. It seems that for the first time since 1989, there might be no diplomatic chemistry between the USA and Poland. And that's an understatement!”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-tusk-kontra-trump,nId,7853927
-- POLAND FACES THE CHALLENGE OF ADJUSTING ITS FOREIGN POLICY TO NEW REALITIES – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “We must have good relations with the new Trump administration, regardless of whether he is closer to Civic Coalition or Law and Justice. This is required by national interest, as well as by jointly building our deterrence capabilities against Russia, in case Putin decides to test whether the rumors about NATO's demise, voiced by Trump's associates, are mere empty metaphors, an expression of their beliefs, or an electoral promise.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41444281-michal-szuldrzynski-polacy-dobrze-rozumieja-wiejace-dzis-wiatry-historii
-- AMERICAN MILITARY PRESENCE IN POLAND IS GROWING AND, AS SIKORSKI PUT IT, IS PERMANENT – MACIEJ MIŁOSZ IN RZ: “In addition to defense against ballistic missiles, the base in Redzikowo offers another fundamental benefit – American military presence in Poland is growing and, as Sikorski put it, is permanent. This means that regardless of who is currently in the White House, the Americans will not withdraw from here too quickly.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-ekonomiczne/art41441411-amerykanska-baza-w-redzikowie-to-nie-tylko-plusy-dodatnie
-- “WE MIGHT EVEN MANAGE TO HOLD THE VOTE EARLIER.” NITRAS ON PRIMARY ELECTIONS IN CIVIC COALITION – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/11/14/
-- EVERYTHING INDICATES THAT THEY WILL BE HELD USING SMS MESSAGES AND SPECIAL CODES – KAMIL DZIUBKA ON ONEt: “The date of the primary elections is not yet certain. Everything indicates that they will be held using SMS messages and special codes. A special electoral commission, which is meeting in Warsaw, is to decide on all matters.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/gesta-atmosfera-w-platformie-przed-prawyborami-nie-na-to-sie-umawialismy/6j9hd8m,79cfc278
-- NO ONE CAN ANSWER WHOSE FAVOR VOTER FATIGUE WILL BENEFIT IN SIX MONTHS – DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ IN NEWSWEEK: “No, Komorowski was not a bad candidate; he had support and was quite liked. It was his campaign that was truly bad, especially in a confrontation with a much younger and energetic PiS candidate. As for illusions – nobody can answer whose favor voter fatigue will benefit in six months. The October 15 Coalition has a government, PiS controls the Presidential Palace. The question is whether Donald Tusk and his coalition partners will manage to reignite the 'anti-PiS' sentiment in voters. If not, the fatigue from over a year of coalition rule, skirmishes, unfulfilled changes, and sluggish settlements might work to the coalition's disadvantage.”
-- CIVIC COALITION NEEDS A POSITIVE STORY ABOUT FUTURE PLANS, NOT JUST ABOUT SETTLING THE PAST – DŁUGOSZ FURTHER IN NEWSWEEK: “The path to victory in next year's elections is not easy for Civic Coalition, although polls currently favor it. Everything also depends on the narrative that can be built during the campaign. Civic Coalition needs a positive story about future plans, not exclusively about settling the past.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/ko-ma-z-kim-przegrac-prezydenture-jest-jeden-element-ktorego-nie-biora-pod-uwage/bbw1tgy
-- I COULDN'T SAY 'NO' – KAROL NAWROCKI IN A CONVERSATION WITH JACEK NIŹINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “I am an apolitical president of the Institute of National Remembrance, feeling responsible for Poland, not just for the Institute of National Remembrance. I regularly repeat that if I were invited to represent the patriotic camp in the presidential elections, I could not say 'no'. This does not change the fact that I have been apolitical for 41 years.”
-- A YEAR LATER, POLAND IS IN A SITUATION THAT DEEPLY WORRIES ME – NAWROCKI FURTHER WITH NIŹINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “I am on the list of candidates for candidate. I have not received an offer from anyone to become a candidate in the race for the Polish presidency. If it turned out that I am the one to step into the fight, representing the patriotic camp, I could not refuse for many reasons. A year later, Poland is in a situation that deeply worries me.”
-- MILITARY AID FOR UKRAINE IS PART OF POLAND'S STRATEGIC INTEREST. WE NATURALLY MUST VIEW THIS ISSUE FROM THE BROADER PERSPECTIVE OF POLAND'S AND POLES' SECURITY – NAWROCKI FURTHER TELLS NIŹINKIEWICZ: “Ukrainians are facing Russians, who have not changed for hundreds of years. They first wanted to flood the West with Bolshevik revolution in 1920, then, as a result of Stalin's imperial ambitions, to colonize part of the world. Military aid for Ukraine is unquestionable, but above all, we should look after our interests and our security. The issue of exhumations should be included in the most sensitive negotiation agendas between Poland and Ukraine.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41434811-karol-nawrocki-nigdy-nie-powiedzialem-ze-chce-byc-prezydentem-polski
-- THE PIS LEADER'S HESITATION REGARDING CANDIDATE SELECTION COULD END LIKE THE FAIRY TALE ABOUT THE DONKEY, WHEN A TOO-LONG CHOICE BETWEEN OATS AND HAY HAD A TRAGIC EFFECT – WIKTOR ŚWIETLIK IN INTERIA: “The right-wing candidate is not without a chance today. Rafał Trzaskowski has lost once, and Radosław Sikorski has even lost a primary election. But their opponent's campaign should start now. For now, the fluctuating moods of the PiS leader, depending on who leaves his office, could cause a malicious rumor spread by opponents to materialize.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-czarnek-nawrocki-teraz-obajtek-pis-owska-bajka-o-osiolku,nId,7854502
-- BIRTHDAYS: Marek Ostrowski, Michał Strąk, Stanisław Karczewski.
live
7 hours
7 hours
„It was awesome.” — Morawiecki asked about his meeting in Dębica
7 hours
„That old communist shouldn't be Marshal of the Sejm.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty
8 hours
„They Don't Bother Me At All." Morawiecki on "Attacks” — from within the United Right Camp
8 hours
„I Want to Address All Local Government Officials.” — Morawiecki on a New Program
8 hours
„An Absolutely Shameless Letter from Communist Apparatchiks.” — Morawiecki on Siwiec's Letter Regarding National Security Bureau Topics
8 hours
„Let's Demand This Questionnaire Be Filled Out.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty's Security Survey
12 hours
„It's Worth Knowing Who We're Dealing With.” — Prime Minister Poses with Anne Applebaum's Book
13 hours
Czarzasty: I Have Access to All the Most Secret Information
13 hours
Sikorski's Sejm Address Postponed. Czarzasty Announces New Date
state of play
STATE OF PLAY: Tusk Needs a New Program, an Exit from the Grey, and a Renewed Contract with Voters; Doda's Ordeal in the TVP Studio
state of play
yesterday
STATE OF PLAY: Braun's Crown - Destination: China and Russia; Skrzydłowska-Kalukin: The Far-Right is Not a Margin; Stanley: Take Euroskepticism's Concerns Seriously
state of play
02/03/2026
Gruszczyński: Morawiecki and Sikorski's Positions Similar Within Their Parties, Żukowska's Strong Entrance to the Political Season, Szczęśniak: Will Pełczyńska Programmatically Threaten the Left? WM: InPost Triumphs in Dispute with Allegro
state of play
02/02/2026
Polish Political Landscape: Hołownia's Allies, Kaczynski's Health, Electoral Shifts, and Societal Divisions
state of play
01/31/2026
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: RZ: 18 Maternity Wards Closed in Four Weeks of the New Year, Skrzydlewska: Konfederacja No Longer Terrifying, Braun Makes it Part of the Mainstream
state of play
01/30/2026
STATE OF PLAY: Nawrocki Aims to Lead Presidency in Opposition to Warsaw Media and Daily Agendas, Res Futura: Krakow Referendum Enters the Radar
state of play
01/29/2026