state of play: 11/12/2024
THE STATE OF PLAY: Magierowski: We must tell Trump that a deal with Putin would mean his defeat, Chwedoruk: Jagodno would be hard to repeat, Grochal: Bosak is calculating well to avoid burnout
-- IS IT POSSIBLE THAT "POLITICS" HAS COME TO MEAN INCISIVE DISCUSSIONS ABOUT A SHORT LIST OF PREVIOUSLY APPROVED TOPICS THAT HAVE BEEN SOMEHOW SUPPLIED BY (SAY) CERTAIN DISTANT SUPERPOWERS - GEORGE SAUNDERS IN THE NEW YORKER: “Is it possible that 'politics' has come to mean incisive discussions about a short list of previously approved topics (immigration, abortion, cancel culture, etc.), which have been somehow supplied by (say) certain distant superpowers, who have also supplied rigid frameworks for their discussion, frameworks designed not to resolve anything but to ensure constant misunderstanding, with agitation as the goal, which, let’s be honest, is a great way to make money?”
-- DOESN'T IT SOMETIMES SEEM LIKE IT WOULD BE EASIER IF YOU JUST BROUGHT A SMALL TELEVISION AND LEFT IT IN THE KITCHEN, TUNED TO YOUR NETWORK, WHILE THE TWO OF YOU WENT TO THE YARD AND TALKED ABOUT SOMETHING YOU HAVE SOME ORIGINAL KNOWLEDGE OF? - SAUNDERS CONTINUES IN THE NEW YORKER: “Doesn’t it sometimes seem like it would be easier if you just brought a small television and left it on in the kitchen, tuned to your network, while the two of you went to the yard and talked about something you have some original knowledge of? Once you’re out there, talking like that, wouldn’t it be nice to feel your previously formed ‘political’ armor fall away? And wouldn’t it be discouraging and alarming when, as soon as one of you slipped up and uttered some trigger word or phrase (say, ‘immigrant’ or ‘Trump’ or ‘politically correct’ or ‘cat-and-dog eaters’), you’d snap back into your ‘political’ jargon, like actors suddenly realizing the scripts they’ve been given must be honored at all costs?”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/dispatches/five-thought-experiments-concerning-the-underlying-disease
***
-- TRZASKOWSKI: WE MUST CONVINCE THE EU TO BUILD DEFENSE CAPABILITIES. IT IS ABSURD THAT GERMANY IS NOT TAKING RESPONSIBILITY, BIELAN: FOR NOW, POLISH-AMERICAN RELATIONS, STILL VERY GOOD, ARE BASED ON Duda - 300LIVE:
https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/11/12/
-- MY TASK IS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS ONE IN WHICH WE EFFECTIVELY DISCOURAGE RUSSIA FROM AGGRESSION – SAYS GENERAL WIESŁAW KUKUŁA, CHIEF OF THE GENERAL STAFF OF THE POLISH ARMY IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MAREK KOZUBAL IN RZ: “In all of this, it is not enough to communicate our rapidly developing defensive capabilities. It is equally important to signal our determination to defend. Many opinion-forming circles in Russia claim that we simply lack the will to fight.”
-- THE ARMING OF MIGRANTS BY THE BELARUSIAN SIDE WOULD CONSTITUTE A VERY SERIOUS ESCALATORY STEP AND WOULD BE MET WITH OUR VERY DECISIVE RESPONSE - CONTINUES GEN. KUKUŁA WITH KOZUBAL IN RZ: “I think that awareness of this fact is known in Minsk. As soldiers, we are prepared for any scenario, but our most important task is de-escalation – discouraging the use of illegal immigration as a form of hybrid aggression by Belarus, as well as discouraging the migrants themselves from such illegal actions.”
-- FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF ALLIANCE COHESION, POLAND'S SECURITY BEGINS IN ESTONIA AND THE OTHER BALTIC STATES - CONTINUES GEN. KUKUŁA IN RZ: “The fight for every inch of NATO is critical to the alliance's credibility. It must also be remembered that the defense of the Baltic states is impossible without Poland, through which the only land connection to them runs. In Latvia, within the structure of the Canadian brigade as part of the so-called NATO enhanced forward presence, a reinforced tank company from Poland also carries out its tasks.”
https://www.rp.pl/wojsko/art41430821-gen-wieslaw-kukula-czerwona-lampka-juz-sie-pali
-- WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP MOST FEARS AND CANNOT STAND IS LOSING. THEREFORE, WE MUST TELL HIM DIRECTLY THAT DEALS OF THIS TYPE WITH PRESIDENT PUTIN SIMPLY MEAN THE DEFEAT OF THE UNITED STATES AND ITS CAPITULATION – SAYS MAREK MAGIEROWSKI, FORMER POLISH AMBASSADOR TO THE USA, TO ONET IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MAGDALENA RIGAMONTI.
-- I AM LOOKING FOR THE MOST DELICATE FORMULATION… IT IS A VERY AWKWARD STATEMENT, THESE ARE VERY UNWISE TWEETS ABOUT DONALD TRUMP - CONTINUES MAGIEROWSKI WITH RIGAMONTI: “I am looking for the most delicate formulation… It is a very awkward statement, these are very unwise tweets about Donald Trump. I am astonished by this, because both Prime Minister Tusk and Minister Sikorski are people with immense political experience. They should know the rules of the game, including when it comes to language.”
-- MAKING SUCH COMMENTS, FROM A POLISH POINT OF VIEW, IS… - IT IS STUPIDITY, DO YOU MEAN TO SAY? - YOU SAID THAT. IT IS AWKWARD - ANOTHER FRAGMENT OF RIGAMONTI'S CONVERSATION WITH MAGIEROWSKI: “In March 2023, when Prime Minister Tusk insinuated various things about Donald Trump, he could have expected that there was a possibility of President Trump returning to the White House. Making comments of this type, from a Polish point of view, is...
- It is stupidity, do you mean to say?
- You said that. It is awkward.”
-- I THINK IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI TO GET HIS POLITICAL CAMP'S NOMINATION NOW - CONTINUES MAGIEROWSKI WITH RIGAMONTI: “I don’t want to predict, to speculate, because my predictions have usually never come true, but I think it will be very difficult for Radosław Sikorski to get his political camp’s nomination now. Donald Tusk is calculating. (...) I don’t know what is brewing in Prime Minister Tusk’s head today, but he will have to make a decision, also taking these vectors into account. I value Anne Applebaum as the author of excellent books, including those about Soviet Russia. (...) She is a brilliant columnist whose views I mostly disagree with. She has a very sharp pen, sometimes perhaps too sharp. And indeed, one can state that her statements also influence the image and political career of her husband.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/trump-zapowiada-koniec-wojny-w-ukrainie-taki-deal-z-putinem-oznaczalby-porazke-usa/3r83hzm,79cfc278
-- KACZYŃSKI'S GAMBIT SUCCEEDED: HE SURVIVED WITH A UNITED PARTY UNTIL TRUMP'S VICTORY - PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “What happened in the States will strengthen PiS not only in the context of next year's elections. Kaczyński's gambit succeeded: he survived with a united party until Trump's victory. At the cost of losses in the European and local elections, he has reached a point where the geopolitical conjuncture is beginning to turn in favor of his party.”
-- ACCORDING TO CHWEDORUK, JAGODNO WILL NOT REPEAT ITSELF EVEN IN CZARNEK'S SCENARIO - AS HE FURTHER STATES TO MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “I think that what happened in that Wrocław housing estate and in the elections last year in general was so unique by Polish standards that it will be hard to repeat for a long time. In next year's presidential election, a great mobilization against PiS will not decide the outcome.”
-- CHWEDORUK CLAIMS THAT THE MOMENT OF THE GREATEST ADVANTAGE OF THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION OVER PiS HAS ALREADY PASSED, AND IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, IT WILL HAVE TO SEEK NEW SOURCES OF MOBILIZATION - CONTINUES IN MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “The moment of the greatest advantage of the October 15 coalition over PiS has already passed, and in the presidential elections, it will have to seek new sources of mobilization, not just as an antithesis to PiS. It seemed that this change would only occur after the presidential elections, but Trump's victory accelerated it.”
-- CHWEDORUK BELIEVES THAT WE UNDERESTIMATE HOW MUCH OPINIONS ON THE WAR DIFFER BETWEEN ORDINARY VOTERS AND ELITES: “Perhaps we underestimate how much opinions on the war differ between ordinary voters and elites. This is one of the reasons for Trump's victory, and a similar effect may occur in Poland. A peace unfavorable to Ukraine will cause outrage among Polish opinion-making elites, but its reach will remain limited. People in Poland are also tired of the war and its costs; they simply want it to end. PiS learned this in the last elections, paying the price for the fact that its policy of supporting Ukraine was not necessarily in line with the interests of a significant part of the rural population that had previously supported the party.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/gambit-kaczynskiego-pis-musi-odpowiedziec-sobie-na-jedno-pytanie-analiza/5qmsz2w
-- THE POLITICAL NARRATIVE WILL AIM TO REDUCE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS TO A REFERENDUM ON TUSK'S GOVERNMENT. AND THIS WILL BE THE GOAL OF BOTH KONFEDERACJA AND PiS - RENATA GROCHAL IN NEWSWEEK: “Spectacle and political narrative matter, and the latter will aim to reduce the presidential elections to a referendum on Tusk's government. And this will be the goal of both Konfederacja and PiS.”
-- ONE MUST APPRECIATE KRZYSZTOF BOSAK'S CLEVERNESS; WHY WOULD HE EXPOSE HIMSELF TO ANOTHER DEFEAT WHEN EVEN COMMENTATORS OF THE POLISH TRUMP SEE PRZEMYSŁAW CZARNEK AS THE CANDIDATE - CONTINUES GROCHAL IN NEWSWEEK: “By the way, one must appreciate Krzysztof Bosak's cleverness, who ceded the presidential race to Mentzen. Bosak has already run for president once, and although he had a good result, he knows that there is no climate for a Konfederacja head of state in Poland today. Why would he expose himself to another defeat, when even commentators of the Polish Trump see Przemysław Czarnek from PiS as the candidate, not one of Konfederacja's leaders.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/cel-konfederacji-i-pis-wszystko-bedzie-zmierzac-w-te-strone/7t100gn
-- MAKE POLAND GREAT AGAIN - IF THE CANDIDATES OF THE RULING COALITION CHOOSE TO DISREGARD THIS, THEY MAY BE UNPLEASANTLY SURPRISED, AS HAS HAPPENED MANY TIMES BEFORE IN POLISH POLITICS - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “Kaczyński clearly sees real political potential in this and wants his candidate to, as he said, 'personalize the idea of a great Poland,' which is precisely 'Make Poland Great Again.' This experiment of transferring campaign narratives and emotions from the United States to Poland can be interpreted as grasping at straws, but if the candidates of the ruling coalition choose to disregard it, they may be unpleasantly surprised, as has happened many times before in Polish politics.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-na-smierc-i-zycie,nId,7853398
-- SIKORSKI WANTS TO FIRE THE AMBASSADOR TO THE VATICAN, A FRIEND OF THE PRESIDENT - BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI AND DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Another source adds that Ambassador Kwiatkowski primarily focuses on contacts between the President and Polish bishops working in Vatican congregations. – From the perspective of state foreign policy, this is not enough – we hear.”
-- TIGHTENING THE COURSE TOWARDS THE PRESIDENT IS INTENDED TO SHOW VOTERS THAT HE IS TOUGH ON PiS AND WILL UNCOMPROMISINGLY HOLD THE GOVERNMENTS OF THIS PARTY ACCOUNTABLE - WRITE WIELOWIEYSKA AND WIELIŃSKI IN GW.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,31454798,spor-o-ambasadorow-eskaluje-sikorski-chce-wyrzucic-ambasadora.html
-- DRONES WILL NOT REPLACE SOLDIERS ON THE BATTLEFIELD, BUT THEY WILL MAKE IT EVEN MORE DEADLY. THE MOST IMPORTANT LESSON THE ARMED FORCES HAVE LEARNED FROM THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE IS THAT FROM NOW ON, WARS WILL BE FOUGHT USING THOUSANDS OF CHEAP, VERY MOBILE, AND DISPOSABLE SMALL DRONES – says Prof. Michael Boyle, an American drone expert, counter-terrorism advisor in Barack Obama's presidential campaign, and lecturer at Rutgers University – Camden in New Jersey, in an interview with Piotr Włoczyk.
https://holistic.news/starcie-dronow-nowe-oblicze-militarnych-konfliktow/
-- ON NOVEMBER 27, A MEETING WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND THE INTERVIEW-BOOK “LET US NOT BE DIVIDED” - A CONVERSATION THAT SZYMON HOŁOWNIA WILL HAVE WITH MICHAŁ KOLANKO. The Marshal of the Sejm informed about the book on Facebook.
-- 9 YEARS AGO President Duda nominated Beata Szydło for the office of Prime Minister.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak, Jakub Kulesza, Marek Tatała, Norbert Wojnarowski.
live
9 hours
8 hours
„It was awesome.” — Morawiecki asked about his meeting in Dębica
9 hours
„That old communist shouldn't be Marshal of the Sejm.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty
9 hours
„They Don't Bother Me At All." Morawiecki on "Attacks” — from within the United Right Camp
9 hours
„I Want to Address All Local Government Officials.” — Morawiecki on a New Program
9 hours
„An Absolutely Shameless Letter from Communist Apparatchiks.” — Morawiecki on Siwiec's Letter Regarding National Security Bureau Topics
9 hours
„Let's Demand This Questionnaire Be Filled Out.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty's Security Survey
13 hours
„It's Worth Knowing Who We're Dealing With.” — Prime Minister Poses with Anne Applebaum's Book
15 hours
Czarzasty: I Have Access to All the Most Secret Information
15 hours
Sikorski's Sejm Address Postponed. Czarzasty Announces New Date
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