state of play: 11/09/2024
STATE OF PLAY: Michalski: Poland Must Have Maneuverability Between Brussels and Washington, Fataliski on Flieger: Trump's Voters Saw a Threat in the Establishment Depriving Them of Their Voice
-- POLITICS ACCELERATED ON SATURDAY: CIVIC COALITION PRIMARIES, TUSK PRAISES DUDĘ AND ANNOUNCES PRESIDENT'S VISIT TO PRESIDENT TRUMP - 300LIVE:
https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/11/09
-- THE MATTER IS DECIDED, MAREK JAKUBIAK DECLARED HIMSELF THE POLISH TRUMP ON POLSAT AND IT’S DONE: https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2024-11-08/marek-jakubiak-polskim-trumpem-mowie-to-co-mysle-tak-jak-on/
-- ELON ON ANOTHER X RECORD, WHICH ACCORDING TO THE MEDIA - A FEW MONTHS AGO - WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE END OF IT:
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1854777813464662307
-- THE FIGHT AGAINST HIGH PRICES IS JUST A PRETEXT TO HIDE THE REAL REASONS WHY AMERICANS OPTED FOR THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE – BELIEVES GUY SORMAN, AN EMINENT AMERICAN-FRENCH PUBLICIST IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: “They said they were doing it because of high inflation. But inflation is practically non-existent in the US now! And fighting it is not within the president's purview anyway. So they mentioned high prices to hide the real reason: because they don't like Black people. There's a lot of hypocrisy here. Trump's electorate is actually strongly racist, xenophobic, and anti-immigrant. Intellectuals in Europe and the United States point out that Trump is a fascist, with authoritarian tendencies. However, for his voters, something completely different is important. He embodies a certain vision of traditional, white America. Kamala, in her fight to save democracy, failed to understand that this is not what's at stake in these elections. She should have convinced voters that she too would defend American identity. All over the world, it's no longer the division between right and left that defines politics.”
-- BUT LATINOS CONSIDER THEMSELVES WHITE! AND THEY HARBOR CLEAR HOSTILITY TOWARDS AFRICAN AMERICANS, AS SEEN, FOR EXAMPLE, IN CALIFORNIA - SORMAN FURTHER WITH BIELECKI IN RZ: “But Latinos consider themselves white! And they harbor clear hostility towards African Americans, as can be seen, for example, in California. They are also very conservative when it comes to abortion, a patriarchal society, Christian values. They believe that women's place is in the home. For all these reasons, Trump appealed to them.”
https://www.rp.pl/wybory-w-usa/art41416611-guy-sorman-inflacja-to-pretekst-prawdziwe-powody-glosowania-na-trumpa
-- INDIVIDUAL VOICES ARE EMERGING FROM CIVIC COALITION POLITICIANS WHO BELIEVE THAT THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE CIVIC COALITION CANDIDATE'S NAME SHOULD BE POSTPONED FURTHER - KAMIL DZIUBKA ON ONET: “For now – as we hear – the Minister of Foreign Affairs is demanding that the matter of choosing the candidate be moved from the Civic Platform's national board to the national council, which is a much broader body. (...) — I would wait to see what Trump does. And he will start acting any moment now. Besides, why should we make it easier for PiS? They are in a comfortable situation now and can wait until December 7th, and we are imposing deadlines on ourselves. I think our voters would understand if we postponed this date – we hear from one Platform politician.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/kogo-wskaze-donald-tusk-tajemnicze-slowa-jednego-z-czlonkow-wladz-po/wmvqfds,79cfc278
-- ACCORDING TO PROF. FLIS, TRZASKOWSKI REMAINS THE MORE PROBABLE CANDIDATE - IN INTERIA: “In his opinion, Trzaskowski remains the more probable candidate. Disadvantages for Sikorski – he noted – include his controversial statements, the unflattering words of his wife, Anne Applebaum, about Trump, or the fact that his son is a soldier in the US Army, which a PiS contender could potentially attack. – It's about what one can attack a candidate for and what can alienate people from him – said Prof. Flis.”
-- WE ARE CHOOSING SOMEONE WITH ZERO COMPETENCE, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE A MISUNDERSTANDING - FURTHER FLIS IN INTERIA: “According to Prof. Jarosław Flis, 'presidential elections in Poland are one big misunderstanding,' in which a person is chosen who 'behaves like a passenger in a moving car, who has no ability to steer, and can only pull the handbrake.' In humanity's most brutal, confrontational method of choosing one person, we are choosing someone with zero competence – he stated.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/wybory/prezydenckie/news-w-po-zgryz-sytuacja-w-usa-nie-ulatwia-sprawy-skomplikowany-u,nId,7852950
-- PIŠ'S JOY AT TRUMP'S VICTORY IS UNDERSTANDABLE. IT IS ALSO, TO SOME EXTENT, A DEFEAT FOR TUSK - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “It's hard for the right not to take advantage of this today, creating an opposing narrative. Trump's story, being attacked and even convicted by courts, is supposed to repeat itself in Poland. How many times has PiŠ been underestimated in polls? So the Republican candidate is too. At the same time, Trump's installation in the White House is the prime evidence that the Polish right is not isolated in the world. That it has a friend overseas, perhaps even a protector, who is becoming the leader of a powerful superpower.”
-- IF THEY BELIEVE TODAY THAT HAVING CELEBRITIES, THE MEDIA, AND THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE BEHIND YOU IS ENOUGH, THEY SHOULD BE CURED OF THAT BELIEF - FURTHER ZAREMBA: “Any failure in relations with the USA will be linked by the opposition to those foolish, propaganda-fueled outbursts. Incidentally, for Tusk's camp, such an unexpected turn of events should serve as a serious memento. If they believe today that having celebrities, the media, and the prosecutor's office behind you is enough, they should be cured of that belief.”
-- IN REALITY, THE REPUBLICANS MOSTLY AVOIDED THE ABORTION ISSUE. THANKS TO THE SUPREME COURT RULING, TRUE - DOMINATED BY TRUMP'S NOMINEES, THIS ISSUE WAS REFERRED TO INDIVIDUAL STATES FOR DECISION - FURTHER ZAREMBA: “Trump could be aggressive, but he didn't talk about gender every day. Perhaps MEP Jaki, not very adept at following Western narratives, might think so based on the propaganda of the republican candidate's enemies who portray him as a homophobe and a proponent of abortion bans. In reality, the Republicans mostly avoided the abortion issue. Thanks to the Supreme Court ruling, which was dominated by Trump's appointees, this matter was referred to the individual states for decision. During the campaign, these issues were resolved, but precisely at the state level. And the presidential candidate spoke mainly about security: economic security, and also security threatened by the excessive influx of illegal immigrants. He avoided ideology, although he was labeled a fascist.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-o-pulapkach-euforii-pis-po-wygranej-trumpa,nId,7852533
-- FOR SOME, IT IS EASIER TO PARODY THE TARGOWICA CONFEDERACY, AND FOR OTHERS, IT IS STILL MORE CONVENIENT TO CONDUCT POLITICAL DIALOGUE SOLELY THROUGH ARRESTS AND MEDIA LEAKS ABOUT THOSE ARRESTS - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “A responsible political class would turn this into a common potential for the entire state and the entire political class, to jointly, behind the scenes of the media theatre and nativity plays of Polish politics, begin working to save and strengthen Poland. However, for some, it is easier to parody Targowica (albeit with Trump in the role of Catherine), and for others, it is still more convenient to conduct political dialogue solely through arrests and media leaks about those arrests.”
-- IF A SANITARY CORDON OF DEPOLARIZATION NEEDS TO BE ESTABLISHED ANYWHERE NOW, IT IS AROUND POLISH FOREIGN POLICY - FURTHER MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “If a sanitary cordon of depolarization needs to be established anywhere now, it is around Polish foreign policy. This is not solely a challenge for Błaszczak (who may not cope with this challenge alone). It is a challenge for Kaczyński and Morawiecki (I see no other safe entities in this area within PiS), but also for Tusk, for Sikorski, for Kosiniak-Kamysz, and for Andrzej Duda and his entire entourage.”
-- POLISH POLITICS AS A WHOLE MUST HAVE MANEUVERABILITY IN THE CONFLICT BETWEEN BRUSSELS AND WASHINGTON, IT MUST MAINTAIN MANEUVERABILITY IN THE FACE OF THE RISK OF UKRAINE'S COLLAPSE - WRITES MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “Polish politics as a whole must have maneuverability in the conflict between Brussels and Washington, it must maintain maneuverability in the face of the risk of Ukraine's collapse, it must have maneuverability even if Russia were to 'look into Europe' again, and both Washington and part of Europe decided on a 'reset,' this time from a position of greater weakness and deeper internal division of the West.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-polska-polityka-wciaz-niegotowa-na-geopolityczny-stress-test,nId,7852323
-- LIBERAL DEMOCRACY WILL ONLY SURVIVE IF IT UNDERSTANDS THE EMOTIONS THAT GAVE TRUMP POWER, NOT IF IT CONTINUES TO FIGHT THEM - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ:
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art41414801-michal-szuldrzynski-jakie-emocje-daly-wladze-donaldowi-trumpowi-i-kogo-zacheci-jego-wygrana
-- AMERICANS RECOGNIZED THAT THERE IS A PROBLEM WITH DEMOCRACY, BUT DONALD TRUMP'S VOTERS SAW THE THREAT TO IT IN THE ESTABLISHMENT THAT IS DEPRIVING THEM OF THEIR VOICE - SAYS MARCIN FATALSKI, AMERICANIST IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “Americans recognized that there is a problem with democracy, but for various reasons. Donald Trump's voters saw the threat to it in the establishment that is depriving them of their voice. I will be able to say more based on research. But please note that Kamala Harris lost states previously taken from Republicans by Joe Biden, the Midwest states. The coalition of centrist voters, including representatives of the working class (as it is today), most likely turned against her. And this was not compensated for by the Latino minority, which the Democrats were counting on so much. Nor were African Americans compensated.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art41414861-marcin-fatalski-amerykanista-stawiam-teze-ze-wyborcy-trumpa-bronili-demokracji
-- FOR SOME, CHADEZCJA'S RULE IS GOOD NEWS FOR POLAND, ESPECIALLY IN A VARIANT WITH THE GREENS, BECAUSE – THIS PARTY HAS NO SENTIMENTS TOWARDS RUSSIA - KAJA PUTO IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA (!!!): “In the new Bundestag, (pro-Russian) radicals from both flanks will therefore be significantly stronger, although it is unlikely they will enter the government. The new CDU/CSU coalition will be formed with the SPD or the Greens, and Friedrich Merz will most likely become chancellor. In the first case, the greatest friction will concern policy towards Ukraine, in the second – migration policy (especially the Bavarian sister party of the CDU, the CSU, holds very conservative views on this issue). However, a two-party coalition will be easier to manage, especially since a strong CDU will have a strong position within it.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/swiat/ue/ostateczna-porazka-rzadu-scholza-do-wladzy-w-niemczech-powroci-chadecja/
-- HOŁOWNIA ON KACZYŃSKI - FRAGMENT OF A CONVERSATION BETWEEN BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI AND SZYMON HOŁOWNIA: “I only had a few interactions with him. Kaczyński went to the podium a few times without any procedure. We never talked outside the hall. In July, during the only closed session so far, we were dismissing two members of the state commission on pedophilia. At the end of the discussion, also without any procedure, MP Kaczyński spoke. When he finished, everyone applauded him. Female MPs from my club came to me later and said they didn't think they would ever applaud Kaczyński. It was the first time I saw him not seeking to escalate conflict, but looking for a solution to the problem.
- What did he say?
- I can't say. But what he said served the cause. The commission on pedophilia, after a year of crisis, was unblocked.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31444875,szymon-holownia-chce-kandydowac-na-prezydenta-polska-potrzebuje.html
-- THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW MARKS THE 106TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE DAY when the Regency Council transferred command of the army under its jurisdiction to Józef Piłsudski.
-- 44 YEARS AGO, NSZZ "Solidarność" was registered.
-- 27 YEARS AGO, Jerzy Buzek's government obtained a vote of confidence.
-- 39 YEARS AGO (on Monday), on the orders of the Minister of Internal Affairs, Gen. Czesław Kiszczak, the Citizens' Militia began Operation "Hyacinth," which involved collecting materials on Polish homosexuals and their environment, resulting in the registration of approximately 11,000 files.
-- STATE OF PLAY RETURNS ON TUESDAY.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Małgorzata Fuszara, Halina Szymańska. SUNDAY: Andrzej Wojciech Bratkowski, Wacław Martyniuk, Bogdan Lis, Joanna Solska, Tadeusz Arkit, Andrzej Orzechowski. MONDAY: Jolanta Banach, Mikołaj Budzanowski, Artur Warzocha.
live
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„Let's Demand This Questionnaire Be Filled Out.” — Morawiecki on Czarzasty's Security Survey
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„It's Worth Knowing Who We're Dealing With.” — Prime Minister Poses with Anne Applebaum's Book
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Czarzasty: I Have Access to All the Most Secret Information
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Sikorski's Sejm Address Postponed. Czarzasty Announces New Date
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